2023-2024 Calder predictions

[Eegs]

Top 3 will be

Bedard
Cooley
Fantilli

 

[Voight]

If Bedard stays healthy there is no chance anyone else touches him. The question should be : if Bedard gets injured, who will win Calder?

He could still win depending on how the other rookies perform and how many games he misses. McDavid still came in 3rd for the Calder despite missing almost half the year (wasn't far behind 2nd place either)

 

[majormajor]

The Bedard hype train has gone off the rails. I'm betting on the field. The field is outstanding this year. Several plausible winners.

 

[jonlin]

Fantilli will probably be in the best spot if he plays with Laine/gaudreau.

Fantilli
Bedard
Cooley

Dark horse if Tampa decides he could be on a scoring line - Merelä. He`s looked quite good.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Fantilli will probably be in the best spot if he plays with Laine/gaudreau.

Fantilli
Bedard
Cooley

Dark horse if Tampa decides he could be on a scoring line - Merelä. He`s looked quite good.

One of these things is not like the others.

 

[FinnishCoyote]

Fantilli will probably be in the best spot if he plays with Laine/gaudreau.

Fantilli
Bedard
Cooley

Dark horse if Tampa decides he could be on a scoring line - Merelä. He`s looked quite good.

Love Merelä, but no way he belongs in this conversation. Could be great bottom-6 guy for Tampa

 

[jonlin]

Love Merelä, but no way he belongs in this conversation. Could be great bottom-6 guy for Tampa

Could also become a Landeskog-lite, who makes space for the top guys. That is, however, more an unlikely prediction, but playstyle is a bit similar. He actually defends, is physical and is a good net-prescence. More likely though that he starts in AHL, as he can be put down without clearing waivers. Has been good pre-season and all training-camp. Lightning fans are quite pleased with his efforts.

 

[Matsun]

Bedard in a landslide.

I've posted this before but it should be repeated. My projection for Bedard are 50+50. Based on last season he would finish about 5th in goals which is worse than Matthews and Laine did. He would also finish around 10-13 in points which is worse than Crosby and McDavid did. This is despite Bedard coming in with better production than maybe all of them. I don't understand why people are talking about 60-70 points here. That is not what these types of talents do. They are special and I think it's okay to expect him to preform like other special talents before him.

Based on last season Bedard would need to go 60+50 to place as high in goals as rookie Matthews and as high in points as rookie Crosby. Expectations for him are way too low when you look at how other great talents have produced as rookies.

 

[jonlin]

Love Merelä, but no way he belongs in this conversation. Could be great bottom-6 guy for Tampa

This is also my predistion - bottom6. However, if he gets a shot in the top6, then he could be the darkhorse. My list was:

Fantilli
Bedard
Cooley


as the top-dogs, in that order. Merelä is an outsider and theres likely 5% chance he gets a Top6 chance.

Bedard in a landslide.

I've posted this before but it should be repeated. My projection for Bedard are 50+50. Based on last season he would finish about 5th in goals which is worse than Matthews and Laine did. He would also finish around 10-13 in points which is worse than Crosby and McDavid did. This is despite Bedard coming in with better production than maybe all of them. I don't understand why people are talking about 60-70 points here. That is not what these types of talents do. They are special and I think it's okay to expect him to preform like other special talents before him.

Based on last season Bedard would need to go 60+50 to place as high in goals as rookie Matthews and as high in points as rookie Crosby. Expectations for him as way to low when you compare to how other great talents have produced.

Based on opportunity, Fantilli has a much better chance, if he gets to play with Laine/Gaudreau and a healthy CBJ defense. He will probably get PP1-time and 18-20min/gp. Bedard has a very poor supporting cast and I dont expect him to get 100p withouth support. Hockey is a team-game. This is not Basketball.

 

[Matsun]

Based on opportunity, Fantilli has a much better chance, if he gets to play with Laine/Gaudreau and a healthy CBJ defense. He will probably get PP1-time and 18-20min/gp. Bedard has a very poor supporting cast and I dont expect him to get 100p withouth support. Hockey is a team-game. This is not Basketball.

The thing is that the other generational talents produced like that. Here is how their PPG ranked as rookies.
Gretzky = 1st
McDavid = 3rd
Crosby = 6th
Lemieux = 9th
Bedard with 100 Points *based on last season* = 12th
Lindros *a generational talent because of his physical gifts* = 21st

I would argue that Bedard is entering the league with a better resume than McDavid and to a team that is just as good/bad. I'm still projecting him to produce worse than all of these guys when some things point towards him to produce better than them.

Also if Bedard matches Lindros and places 21st in PPG that would be a 92 point pace based on last season. It would be the most points be a rookie since Crosby/Ovechkin and I think that would win the Calder no problem.

 

[Bank Shot]

The thing is that the other generational talents produced like that. Here is how their PPG ranked as rookies.
Gretzky = 1st
McDavid = 3rd
Crosby = 6th
Lemieux = 9th
Bedard with 100 Points *based on last season* = 12th
Lindros *a generational talent because of his physical gifts* = 21st

I would argue that Bedard is entering the league with a better resume than McDavid and to a team that is just as good/bad. I'm still projecting him to produce worse than all of these guys when some things point towards him to produce better than them.

Also if Bedard matches Lindros and places 21st in PPG that would be a 92 point pace based on last season. It would be the most points be a rookie since Crosby/Ovechkin and I think that would win the Calder no problem.

Ovechkin missed what would have been his rookie season due to the lockout, but I would include him anyway just for the team strength argument.

He finished 5th in scoring. His linemates were Dainius Zubrus and Jim Halpern/Chris Clark. The top scoring D on that team were Ben Clymer and Jamie Heward.

That team was an absolute wasteland for offensive talent. Its pretty reasonable to project that they would have been dead last in scoring that season if it were not for Ovie.

Ovie just scored 106 points anyway and had 50 more points than his closest teammate because that's what generational players do.

At least Bedard has Taylor Hall and Seth Jones.

 

[Peasy]

funny his floor is his ceiling.

Wanna make a bet Knies surpasses 45 points in the next 3 years?

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

I'd say this is one of the better classes in a long time, so it's a tough pick but it's going to be hard to go against Connor Bedard.

Honestly, the 21-22 group was pretty fantastic.

Bigger names in this one, but it's 18 year olds, whereas 21-22 had some overripe kids due to COVID and other factors.

 

[HockeyVirus]

funny his floor is his ceiling.

So many people have never even watched the player and say stuff like this. No one who watched him would claim his ceiling is 45 points

 

[Peasy]

So many people have never even watched the player and say stuff like this. No one who watched him would claim his ceiling is 45 points

Hes probably to busy watching the great Dylan Holloway.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Hes probably to busy watching the great Dylan Holloway.

Just funny with Knies is all. Kid comes into the playoffs and is an immediate impact player. Then ok maybe that is a fluke but no he comes into camp and is one of the best players every game he plays while purposefully being put away from any of our top 6 to see what he can do.

He's already a top 6 forward. To say he will never crack higher than 45 points is laughable

 

[abo9]

Bedard
Fantilli
Knies

Who's a prospect on D and G? I don't think Levi is gonna be in the running unless he really does incredible things.

Would be curious to see Dustin Wolfe but might be another few years waiting...

 

[Bank Shot]

Just funny with Knies is all. Kid comes into the playoffs and is an immediate impact player. Then ok maybe that is a fluke but no he comes into camp and is one of the best players every game he plays while purposefully being put away from any of our top 6 to see what he can do.

He's already a top 6 forward. To say he will never crack higher than 45 points is laughable

He's not going to win the Calder so pack your homerism up in a box, wrap it neatly and mail it to a thread where Knies is relevant.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

I hope Kartye sticks this season cause I can see him having a very good rookie season.

I was very impressed with him last season in the AHL and with Seattle at end of season

 

[Pavels Dog]

Bedard in a landslide.

I've posted this before but it should be repeated. My projection for Bedard are 50+50. Based on last season he would finish about 5th in goals which is worse than Matthews and Laine did. He would also finish around 10-13 in points which is worse than Crosby and McDavid did. This is despite Bedard coming in with better production than maybe all of them. I don't understand why people are talking about 60-70 points here. That is not what these types of talents do. They are special and I think it's okay to expect him to preform like other special talents before him.

Based on last season Bedard would need to go 60+50 to place as high in goals as rookie Matthews and as high in points as rookie Crosby. Expectations for him are way too low when you look at how other great talents have produced as rookies.

Expectations should be based on the player, not some magical thinking that just because he’s a great prospect he’s automatically going to follow a 1:1 trajectory to other great prospects.

 

[StumpyTown]

Bedard if he stays healthy all year. Fantilli is probably an easy second for me.

 

[Bank Shot]

Expectations should be based on the player, not some magical thinking that just because he’s a great prospect he’s automatically going to follow a 1:1 trajectory to other great prospects.

It's not based on magical thinking.

Its's based on logical reasoning deduced from Bedard's stats.

He just scored 143 points in the WHL. IN HIS DRAFT YEAR.
His ppg was 16th overall in WHL history.

For reference Mike Modano has the 14th best ppg, and Sakic has the 18th, except they did it in their draft +1, and in the 80s......

 

[notbias]

It's not based on magical thinking.

Its's based on logical reasoning deduced from Bedard's stats.

He just scored 143 points in the WHL. IN HIS DRAFT YEAR.
His ppg was 16th overall in WHL history.

For reference Mike Modano has the 14th best ppg, and Sakic has the 18th, except they did it in their draft +1, and in the 80s......

Kane had a better draft year by those standards (11th all-time in PPG for OHL, and similar production to McDavid) and then put up 72 in 82 in his rookie year.

It all depends on how Bedard's game translates (it looks like it will translate well) and the situation he is going into. But using these random numbers, I can find players who did similar to him and didn't put up huge numbers.

 

[HockeyVirus]

He's not going to win the Calder so pack your homerism up in a box, wrap it neatly and mail it to a thread where Knies is relevant.

So to be clear, anyone who might be a finalist for the Calder is not worthy of discussion? Because there is a strong chance Knies is a finalist. Or do you just want people to say Bedard and the thread to be 2 posts long?

 

[Bank Shot]

Kane had a better draft year by those standards (11th all-time in PPG for OHL, and similar production to McDavid) and then put up 72 in 82 in his rookie year.

It all depends on how Bedard's game translates (it looks like it will translate well) and the situation he is going into. But using these random numbers, I can find players who did similar to him and didn't put up huge numbers.

Well if his floor ends up being Patrick Kane, I wouldn't call that a major disappointment.