2023-2024 Calder predictions

[GoldenKnight]

If this guy gets any faster, the league is f***ed

Elite skill and skating. He does look a little smaller than advertised though, hopefully the kid keeps his head up and on a swivel once the games start to matter.

 

[bossram]

With the way he's looked in pre-season I don't see how Bedard can be anything other than massive odds-on favourite.

Cooley I think will be up there.

Easy to forget that in a non-Bedard year, Fantilli is a high-level 1st overall pick. Probably somewhere in the Jack Hughes range. Wouldn't be shocked if he puts up 70 points on a very surprisingly good BJ's team.

The betting markets basically have it Bedard vs. The Field for Calder, with a slight lean toward Bedard.

Given his track record and opportunity he'll get with Chicago, it makes absolute sense he is the large favourite.

The only other guys I see with a shot, if they can get on their teams' 1PP, are Fantilli and Cooley. Luke Hughes won't get enough PP time, and it's hard to see Levi being an undisputed starter (which he would need to be to win the Calder).

What have any of them done in the NHL? Knies has shown he belongs in a teams top 6. Not to mention he is a power forward prospect, his scoring is one part of his value.

This is a discussion about the Calder. Knies will need points to win the Calder. He's not gonna get enough points. Being on the 1PP is pretty much a prerequisite to getting to that level of production, and Knies won't be on it.

Elite skill and skating. He does look a little smaller than advertised though, hopefully the kid keeps his head up and on a swivel once the games start to matter.

He's not an elite skater. The straightline speed is not at all McDavid or Barzal level. But his edgework and balance is quite good and he can play the small area game.

 

[bossram]

If Bedard falters or is injured (a la mcdavids rookie year) then knies is my pick as well.

Kid has looked great

Knies isn't going to have the raw production to win the Calder.

 

[Osakahaus]

It’s funny seeing that clip passed around when he kinda sucked for 99.9% of that game.

Bedard makes a huge deke to cut the lead to 6-2

 

[Strangle]

Knies isn't going to have the raw production to win the Calder.

I think he could. It’s possible if the Leafs are rolling all year and an offensive dynamo (which is certainly possible).

He’s going to get good minutes with great offensive players

 

[cneely]

I think it's fair to say Kane elevated Gagner and Kostitsyn's numbers big time.

Gagner went from 46p in 56gp in the USHL to 118 in 53gp in the OHL. That's a jump of 0.83ppg in a lesser league to 2.22ppg in the best junior league in the world.

Kostitsyn went from 78p in 63gp to 131p in 58gp. That's 1.24ppg.to 2.26ppg.

I actually don't think Howe and Suzdalev are really that far from those two (and Bedard had a much better PP QB in Svozil than anyone in London), but the stylistic differences Bedard's game tends to lead to less even scoring distributions. Kane was much more of a facilitator and pass first guy, which tends to get more guys involved in scoring plays. Whereas Bedard, while an incredible passer, will look to do things on his own if he can. We saw the same effect when he played for Canada. This is neither a good or bad thing, just providing some context as to why Bedard's scoring always laps that of his teammates (beyond the obvious fact that he's just better than everyone else).

Kane certainly helped them, but they were also a year older, and progressed naturally as kids do in junior.

Look at it another way. Kane had a point in 47% of his team's goals. Brown, 42%. Bedard was in on 55% of the Pat's goals last year.

 

[TheBeard]

This has the makings of another Selanne/Juneau race.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Kane certainly helped them, but they were also a year older, and progressed naturally as kids do in junior.

You'd expect some natural progression, but nothing like what we saw from Kostitsyn and especially Gagner.

Look at it another way. Kane had a point in 47% of his team's goals. Brown, 42%. Bedard was in on 55% of the Pat's goals last year.

Yep, but again a lot of that is attributed to stylistic differences. Kane was much more likely to get others involved in the play. Regina also had absolutely pathetic depth, whereas the Knights' 2nd line was great in their own right. The 4th-6th scoring forwards on London were all over a PPG (including Corey's little brother Adam "AJ" Perry). That's 6 PPG+ forwards to the Pats 3 PPG forwards.

 

[bossram]

I think he could. It’s possible if the Leafs are rolling all year and an offensive dynamo (which is certainly possible).

He’s going to get good minutes with great offensive players

He's not going to be on the 1PP, which is pretty much a prerequisite to getting to the production level to win the Calder.

And yeah, he will play with good offensive players. But the Leafs have so many offensive players that his total TOI won't be high, again limiting the total production.

There is basically 0% chance he can win.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I think he could. It’s possible if the Leafs are rolling all year and an offensive dynamo (which is certainly possible).

He’s going to get good minutes with great offensive players

I think he’s have to win the point race by a pretty decent amount to win Calder

 

[cneely]

You'd expect some natural progression, but nothing like what we saw from Kostitsyn and especially Gagner.

Totally fair. And I don't mean to suggest that Kane wasn't a big part of that.

Yep, but again a lot of that is attributed to stylistic differences. Kane was much more likely to get others involved in the play. Regina also had absolutely pathetic depth, whereas the Knights' 2nd line was great in their own right. The 4th-6th scoring forwards on London were all over a PPG (including Corey's little brother Adam "AJ" Perry). That's 6 PPG+ forwards to the Pats 3 PPG forwards.

That's kind of my point. Kane and Brown had a lot more talent to work with.

 

[Peasy]

Not saying it will happen (because its extremely unlikely) but Bunting put up over 60 points being stapled to M&M's side with no pp1 time.

Dont really see Knies being given that kind of deployment though. He will be used throughout the line up to try and give specific lines a boost.

I think he has a decent chance a being of finalist if all goes well, but an extreme long shot at actually winning the thing.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Not saying it will happen (because its extremely unlikely) but Bunting put up over 60 points being stapled to M&M's side with no pp1 time.

Dont really see Knies being given that kind of deployment though. He will be used throughout the line up to try and give specific lines a boost.

I think he has a decent chance a being a finalist if all goes well, but an extreme long shot at actually winning the thing.

I think he’ll be a finalist if he stays healthy, but he’ll need a lot of help to win it

 

[JPeeper]

Only thing that will hold Bedard back from winning is injury, no one else has a chance.

 

[Haatley]

That's his floor

Ya after his 1 goal in 10 games last season, spending time with two big point producers, these seems accurate.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Ya after his 1 goal in 10 games last season, spending time with two big point producers, these seems accurate.

How much of him have you watched or you just boxscore scouting?

 

[Haatley]

How much of him have you watched or you just boxscore scouting?

I watched almost every game he played. He'll be a good middle 6 player in a few years.

 

[HockeyVirus]

I watched almost every game he played. He'll be a good middle 6 player in a few years.

In a few years? He is that today. You think he is an AHLer or something?

 

[Haatley]

In a few years? He is that today. You think he is an AHLer or something?

What exactly are you basing that on?

I think he is a physically ready young player who hasn't proven anything at the NHL level. I think he has a long way to go and I think it's a shame that Leaf fans and media have these ridiculous expectations of him being a star right away.

 

[HockeyVirus]

What exactly are you basing that on?

I think he is a physically ready young player who hasn't proven anything at the NHL level. I think he has a long way to go and I think it's a shame that Leaf fans and media have these ridiculous expectations of him being a star right away.

Because he was a star in the playoffs when he was comfortable. He was on the ice for nearly every important goal against Tampa. And he came into this pre-season and is showing he is special still. The hype has merit

 

[Haatley]

Because he was a star in the playoffs when he was comfortable. He was on the ice for nearly every important goal against Tampa. And he came into this pre-season and is showing he is special still. The hype has merit

He wasn't a star. He had 1 goql and 4 points in 7 games and got manhandled by a smaller player.

You guys are out here calling him the favourite after Bedard. He was 23rd in points per game in the NCAA last season with many of the guys ahead of him graduating to the NHL this year.

 

[Barrsy]

Because he was a star in the playoffs when he was comfortable. He was on the ice for nearly every important goal against Tampa. And he came into this pre-season and is showing he is special still. The hype has merit

A star? My lord, such a comically low bar the leafs have.

 

[Barrsy]

Hes probably to busy watching the great Dylan Holloway.

Yeah, Oiler fans are realy saying idiotic things about Holloway.
Give your head a shake. We get its 56 years , but cool it with the insanity

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

No contest really.

 

[TLEH]

It’s funny seeing that clip passed around when he kinda sucked for 99.9% of that game.

Yeah he played pretty bad that game for sure. Weird seeing you parade this comment in 99.9% of threads about Bedard.