2023-2024 Calder predictions

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Rob Brown

Way She Goes
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Would be curious to see Dustin Wolfe but might be another few years waiting...
There is no way Wolf spends more than one more season in the AHL, tops. Even this year I expect him to be with the team full time at some point, so there's no way the Flames make him sit down in the AHL for two more seasons.

He's not going to win the Calder so pack your homerism up in a box, wrap it neatly and mail it to a thread where Knies is relevant.
It's a thread about people's Calder predictions. You aren't in charge of the thread and what is worthy of discussion.
 
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notbias

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Well if his floor ends up being Patrick Kane, I wouldn't call that a major disappointment.

His floor is not Kane...

People are acting like Bedard is guaranteed to be a top 5 player at his peak.

There is definitely a chance he is not that type of player.

Based on his work ethic and talent, I think top 10 at worst is likely, but it isn't guaranteed like some act.

Anyone who thinks Bedard is guaranteed to win the Calder has not watched enough hockey.
 

Bank Shot

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His floor is not Kane...

People are acting like Bedard is guaranteed to be a top 5 player at his peak.

There is definitely a chance he is not that type of player.

Based on his work ethic and talent, I think top 10 at worst is likely, but it isn't guaranteed like some act.

Anyone who thinks Bedard is guaranteed to win the Calder has not watched enough hockey.

Well as you stated Kane had comparable draft stats and he became a top 5 player at his peak. Won the Calder too.

The stats Bedard put up last season suggest he is on that path. I mean when you are finding Patrick Kane as a comparable who is one of the best hockey players in NHL history that's probably not a red flag.
 

notbias

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Well as you stated Kane had comparable draft stats and he became a top 5 player at his peak. Won the Calder too.

The stats Bedard put up last season suggest he is on that path. I mean when you are finding Patrick Kane as a comparable who is one of the best hockey players in NHL history that's probably not a red flag.

There are examples of players not living up to their WHL numbers is what I was saying.

You listed off Sakic and Modano but left off players like Rob Brown who by age/PPG is the closest comparable.

Screenshot 2023-10-02 at 8.24.37 AM.png
 

Based Anime Fan

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Bedard
Fantilli
Knies

Who's a prospect on D and G? I don't think Levi is gonna be in the running unless he really does incredible things.

Would be curious to see Dustin Wolfe but might be another few years waiting...
Hughes
Nemec
Jirichek
 

Based Anime Fan

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Gotcha. Hughes and Nemec bith on NJ eh? With Hamilton leading PP1, either would surprise me in the Calder running. The forward group seems to have much more open opportunities
Yeah, I could see Hughes running PP2 with Severson gone.
 
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HockeyVirus

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If Bedard falters or is injured (a la mcdavids rookie year) then knies is my pick as well.

Kid has looked great

Yup, not saying he is the favorite but he should be in the conversation and is likely a finalist based on what I have seen, especially if he ends up back on Matthews - Marner LW either due to team need or Bertuzzi being injured.
 
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HFpapi

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With the way he's looked in pre-season I don't see how Bedard can be anything other than massive odds-on favourite.

Cooley I think will be up there.

Easy to forget that in a non-Bedard year, Fantilli is a high-level 1st overall pick. Probably somewhere in the Jack Hughes range. Wouldn't be shocked if he puts up 70 points on a very surprisingly good BJ's team.
 

Bank Shot

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There are examples of players not living up to their WHL numbers is what I was saying.

You listed off Sakic and Modano but left off players like Rob Brown who by age/PPG is the closest comparable.

View attachment 748191
Well Rob Brown was a 4th round pick, so I don't think its exactly the same type of situation. The scouts had identified skating and possibly attitude as problems.

So if the whole point of contention is over not solely using stats to judge players, I agree with you.

I just find stats are better used to get a point across. Every year I hear about how the new prospects in training camp are looking faster, smarter, stronger and better looking than the guys who came before them, but still most of them bust.
 

Bank Shot

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So to be clear, anyone who might be a finalist for the Calder is not worthy of discussion? Because there is a strong chance Knies is a finalist. Or do you just want people to say Bedard and the thread to be 2 posts long?
Well Cooley played on the same college team as Knies last year and outscored him by 20 points.
Fantilli scored almost a goal per game in college and put up huge numbers.
Luke Hughes also outscore Knies in college and has a better ppg in the NHL games he played last year as well.

So that's 3 easy ones.
 

HockeyVirus

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Well Cooley played on the same college team as Knies last year and outscored him by 20 points.
Fantilli scored almost a goal per game in college and put up huge numbers.
Luke Hughes also outscore Knies in college and has a better ppg in the NHL games he played last year as well.

So that's 3 easy ones.

What have any of them done in the NHL? Knies has shown he belongs in a teams top 6. Not to mention he is a power forward prospect, his scoring is one part of his value.
 
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Bank Shot

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What have any of them done in the NHL? Knies has shown he belongs in a teams top 6.
Well they are rookies. So I take it most of them haven't played in the NHL.

I mentioned Luke Hughes had a better ppg in the NHL last season than Knies if you had bothered to read my whole post, but a handful of games shouldn't be taken too much to heart.
 

Suntouchable13

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Well Cooley played on the same college team as Knies last year and outscored him by 20 points.
Fantilli scored almost a goal per game in college and put up huge numbers.
Luke Hughes also outscore Knies in college and has a better ppg in the NHL games he played last year as well.

So that's 3 easy ones.

Lol, Luke Hughes only played 2 games and Knies 3. But yes, technically you are right. Hughes did have a higher PPG. 2 points in 2 games, vs 1 in 3 for Knies.
 

Bank Shot

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Lol, Luke Hughes only played 2 games and Knies 3. But yes, technically you are right. Hughes did have a higher PPG. 2 points in 2 games, vs 1 in 3 for Knies.
And also 2 points in 3 playoff games. So 4 points in 5 games for Hughes.

And Fantili just became the third freshman to ever win the Hobey Baker. The other two were Eichel and Kariya.

But Knies played a few NHL games so I'm sure whatever Fantili did isn't that significant in comparison.
 

Pavels Dog

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It's not based on magical thinking.

Its's based on logical reasoning deduced from Bedard's stats.

He just scored 143 points in the WHL. IN HIS DRAFT YEAR.
His ppg was 16th overall in WHL history.

For reference Mike Modano has the 14th best ppg, and Sakic has the 18th, except they did it in their draft +1, and in the 80s......
None of what you said here has any "logical reasoning" included.
 

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I think the forwards are going to be battling out for the win, but a guy who hasn’t been mentioned yet that I think has a good chance of getting some placement votes is Brock Faber. Projected on the top pairing with Brodin, he is going to be getting some premier minutes on a competitive Wild team and has so far looked quite good doing it.
 
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WhiskeyYerTheDevils

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I think the forwards are going to be battling out for the win, but a guy who hasn’t been mentioned yet that I think has a good chance of getting some placement votes is Brock Faber. Projected on the top pairing with Brodin, he is going to be getting some premier minutes on a competitive Wild team and has so far looked quite good doing it.
It's gonna be hard for Faber to get Calder attention, just because he's not likely to put up tons of points. But I do think his defensive play will deserve some recognition.
 

cneely

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Kane had a better draft year by those standards (11th all-time in PPG for OHL, and similar production to McDavid) and then put up 72 in 82 in his rookie year.

It all depends on how Bedard's game translates (it looks like it will translate well) and the situation he is going into. But using these random numbers, I can find players who did similar to him and didn't put up huge numbers.
Kane had 2 other guys on that Knights team (Kotstisyn and Gagner) who were well over 100 points. The Knights that year had 311 goals. The 2nd leading scorer on the Pats last year had 86 points and the Pats scored 262.

For reference, the Blazers had 3 other guys over 100 points in Brown's draft year and scored 449 (!!!!!) goals.

Bedard's year is not comparable, lol.
 
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WhiskeyYerTheDevils

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Kane had 2 other guys on that Knights team (Kotstisyn and Gagner) who were well over 100 points. The Knights that year had 311 goals. The 2nd leading scorer on the Pats last year had 86 points and the Pats scored 262.

For reference, the Blazers had 3 other guys over 100 points in Brown's draft year and scored 449 (!!!!!) goals.

Bedard's year is not comparable, lol.
I think it's fair to say Kane elevated Gagner and Kostitsyn's numbers big time.

Gagner went from 46p in 56gp in the USHL to 118 in 53gp in the OHL. That's a jump of 0.83ppg in a lesser league to 2.22ppg in the best junior league in the world.

Kostitsyn went from 78p in 63gp to 131p in 58gp. That's 1.24ppg.to 2.26ppg.

I actually don't think Howe and Suzdalev are really that far from those two (and Bedard had a much better PP QB in Svozil than anyone in London), but the stylistic differences Bedard's game tends to lead to less even scoring distributions. Kane was much more of a facilitator and pass first guy, which tends to get more guys involved in scoring plays. Whereas Bedard, while an incredible passer, will look to do things on his own if he can. We saw the same effect when he played for Canada. This is neither a good or bad thing, just providing some context as to why Bedard's scoring always laps that of his teammates (beyond the obvious fact that he's just better than everyone else).
 

Statto

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I’d suggest Clarke could be a finalist. He has the talent but he hasn’t yet paid his dues with a full season in the AHL.
 
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