2022/23 Roster Thread XVI: Suite 16, Room for Improvement

[flyersnorth]

Carolina willingly let Dougie Hamilton walk over paying him a sizable long term UFA contract & didn’t miss a beat. The Flyers would have handed him what ever he wanted over that & if he did walk they wouldn’t have replaced him & just made excuses feeling sorry about themselves because they couldn’t replace him.

Even beyond just drafting you have a front office that churns through it’s roster almost every year & doesn’t lose a beat while keeping it’s cap/asset flexibility in tact.

Flyers prefer the buy high and sell low approach.

Do you know when that approach works? In an uncapped world with deep pockets.

Considering who's still lurking the WFC halls, it's a mindset that has not yet disappeared.

 

[landsbergfan]

 

[Beef Invictus]

Necas and Jarvis were both picked where the Flyers will pick this season.
TK and Farabee are as good and were picked #27 and #14.
It's nice to have a bunch of top 5 picks, but it's also nice to have structure and good coaching and actually get young players to play well.

Torts is underrated b/c of the theatrics, but at each stop, he's gotten later round picks to play well above expectations - this has happened so consistently that it seems to be part of his MO - for every high pick that clashes with him (he doesn't have patience with entitlement 'tude), two guys come out of nowhere.

One reason I was wary of judging the young players on this team was the chaos of the last two seasons wasn't amenable to player development - look at TK blossom.

I see three inflection points this season:

First ten games, both Torts and players trying to figure things out, chaos ruled.
Next sixteen games, players buy in but lines and pairs are in flux as Torts tries to assess who fits with whom and it what role.
Last sixteen games, starting 12/7, JVR returns, lines are set, Allison returns, MacEwen exiled to 4th line, York comes up and is installed in the top 4.

Lost first 4, thee by one goal on the road (2 in OT)
They are now 8-4 the last 12 games, including @ NJ, @ LA, @ Buf, Wash.
scored 55 goals, allowed 51.

TOI the last 16 games:

TK (25) 14:44
Farabee (22) 13:25
Frost (23) 13:25
Cates (23) 13:22
Laughton (28) 13:02
JVR (33) 13:00
Tippett (23) 12:57
Hayes (30) 12:52
Allison (25) 11:47

Provorov (26) 18:27
Sanheim (26) 17:47
TDA (27) 16:55
York (22) 16:23
Risto (28) 15:55

Fletcher and Flahr and the scouts value the wrong things. Pick location is some of the battle. Being competent with it is another part. Picking quantity is the rest. Thanks to their incompetence, our position will be high. But due to their incompetence, the other two factors are absent.

 

[Curufinwe]

They've picked 40 times in the last 4 years; the Flyers have picked 24 times in Fletcher's 4 years.

That's mind boggling.

 

[deadhead]

You really can't just hand-wave making excellent trades year after year as irrelevant. Especially when you're trying to compare it to this shitshow.

For example, they were able to draft Jarvis because they both had cap space and got creative with it. They created that opportunity by cashing in accumulated minor wins.

While we're here, Brady Skjei has been fantastic recently. It was definitely a situational overpay, but this version is also worth that and more.

*Edit* I always spell it Skeji. I'm the worst.

Waddell has done a good job, but shows how hard it is to evaluate GMs.
First gig was with the Atlanta Thrashers, made the playoffs once in 11 seasons.
Expansion team, but still, pretty much a "fail." And an example why tanking doesn't always work.
1999 #1: Stefan, 2000 #2 Heatley, 2001 #1 Kovalchuk, 2002 #2 Lehtonen, 2003 #8 Coburn, 2004 #10 Valabik, 2005 #16 Bourret, 2006 #12 Little, 2008 #3 Bogosian, 2009 #4 Kane

Then was a scout for the Pens before Carolina hired him in senior management, 4 years before he became GM.

6/23/18: Hanifin and Lindholm for Hamilton (left after 2 seasons), Ferland and Fox (flipped 4/30/19 for 2019 2nd, 2020 3rd)
8/2/18 Skinner for 2019 2nd, 2020 3rd
1/17/19 Rask for Niederreiter
6/22/19 6th for Marleau, 2020 1st [salary dump by Toronto]
6/24/19 DeHaan for Forsling (claimed by FLA off waivers) and Forsberg
6/27/19 Roy for Haula
6/30/19 Darling & 6th for Reimer
2/24/20 2020 1st for Skjei
2/24/20 Luostarinen, Wallmark, Haula for Trocheck
9/12/20 Edmundson for 5th
4/21/21 Fleury for Hakanpaa (TDL rental)
7/22/21 Nedeljkovic for Bernier, 2021 3rd
7/23/21 Bean for 2021 2nd
7/28/21 Foegle for Bear
3/21/22 Hreschuk for Domi and Inamoto
7/8/22 TDA for 2022 4th, 2023 3rd, 2024 2nd
7/13/22 Lorentz & 3rd for Burns
7/13/22 Pacioretty for "future considerations"

He actually hasn't made a lot of brilliant trades (Sakic is much better), has used cap room to pick up talent on the cheap.
He cleared out the players Brind'Amour didn't want and freed up cap room, but didn't get a lot for them.

 

[renberg]

That's mind boggling.

Especially when one considers how many of them were blown to “fix” the defense which would have been as good as if not better if the trades had not been made and the personnel retained

 

[Beef Invictus]

Waddell has done a good job, but shows how hard it is to evaluate GMs.
First gig was with the Atlanta Thrashers, made the playoffs once in 11 seasons.
Expansion team, but still, pretty much a "fail." And an example why tanking doesn't always work.
1999 #1: Stefan, 2000 #2 Heatley, 2001 #1 Kovalchuk, 2002 #2 Lehtonen, 2003 #8 Coburn, 2004 #10 Valabik, 2005 #16 Bourret, 2006 #12 Little, 2008 #3 Bogosian, 2009 #4 Kane

Then was a scout for the Pens before Carolina hired him in senior management, 4 years before he became GM.

6/23/18: Hanifin and Lindholm for Hamilton (left after 2 seasons), Ferland and Fox (flipped 4/30/19 for 2019 2nd, 2020 3rd)
8/2/18 Skinner for 2019 2nd, 2020 3rd
1/17/19 Rask for Niederreiter
6/22/19 6th for Marleau, 2020 1st [salary dump by Toronto]
6/24/19 DeHaan for Forsling and Forsberg
6/27/19 Roy for Haula
6/30/19 Darling & 6th for Reimer
2/24/20 2020 1st for Skjei
2/24/20 Luostarinen, Wallmark, Haula for Trocheck
9/12/20 Edmundson for 5th
4/21/21 Fleury for Hakanpaa (TDL rental)
7/22/21 Nedeljkovic for Bernier, 2021 3rd
7/23/21 Bean for 2021 2nd
7/28/21 Foegle for Bear
3/21/22 Hreschuk for Domi and Inamoto
7/8/22 TDA for 2022 4th, 2023 3rd, 2024 2nd
7/13/22 Lorentz & 3rd for Burns
7/13/22 Pacioretty for "future considerations"

He actually hasn't made a lot of brilliant trades (Sakic is much better), has used cap room to pick up talent on the cheap.
He cleared out the players Brind'Amour didn't want and freed up cap room, but didn't get a lot for them.

The Thrashers had zero resources.

 

[deadhead]

The Thrashers had zero resources.

Yes, but that's what you end up with if you follow the "tank for Bedard" plan.
To be that bad, you have to strip a team of all its resources.

After 11 years, you should be able to turn an expansion team (even when they weren't given the advantages of the last ED drafts) into a winner, given high draft picks and the cap room to be aggressively dealing for assets.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Yes, but that's what you end up with if you follow the "tank for Bedard" plan.
To be that bad, you have to strip a team of all its resources.

After 11 years, you should be able to turn an expansion team (even when they weren't given the advantages of the last ED drafts) into a winner, given high draft picks and the cap room to be aggressively dealing for assets.

I don't think you understand what I mean.

You do not need to fire your entire staff to tank for Bedard. You don't need to destroy your finances. Atlanta had no money. Because they had no money they were a skeletal organization.

Losing the Atlanta TV market would have absolutely grinded Bettman's gears, and it's a testament to how rough it had to be that the relocation was allowed

 

[JojoTheWhale]

He actually hasn't made a lot of brilliant trades (Sakic is much better), has used cap room to pick up talent on the cheap.
He cleared out the players Brind'Amour didn't want and freed up cap room, but didn't get a lot for them.

As far as your last sentence, I might agree with that if the grading scale ended at zero. Sadly, as we've seen from situations like JVR, they don't. Avoiding paying for dumps is a strong positive on multiple axes.

I have some time today, so let's do this.

6/23/18: Hanifin and Lindholm for Hamilton (left after 2 seasons), Ferland and Fox (flipped 4/30/19 for 2019 2nd, 2020 3rd)

They traded two solid player for two undeniable stars and a solid player. Of course, Fox was cheap because he would only sign with NYR, but they took a stab at a star with depressed value and still got value out of him on the other side. A++ by any definition.

8/2/18 Skinner for 2019 2nd, 2020 3rd

They determined that they didn't want to sign Skinner to the UFA inflation rate deal and got value for him. Excellent process.

1/17/19 Rask for Niederreiter

They got the clearly better player from a team that chose fit over talent and determined they were making a shake-up trade at all costs. Excellent process.

6/22/19 6th for Marleau, 2020 1st [salary dump by Toronto]

They rolled over their Skinner decision and leveraged it to its fullest. Excellent process.

6/24/19 DeHaan for Forsling and Forsberg

They got out of the De Haan contract after he destroyed his shoulder and didn't take ANY salary back. Took a buy-low chance on a post-hype prospect and a Goalie who ended up not only sticking in the NHL, but getting paid. Once again excellent.

6/27/19 Roy for Haula

I didn't like this one at the time because I was high on Roy. But he wasn't a likely star or anything and they only gave up a 5th to get an average Forward. Let's call this one aggressively fine even if I wouldn't have made it.

6/30/19 Darling & 6th for Reimer

For the cost of a 6th rounder, they clearly upgraded the roster spot and saved 750k in cap space without adding term. And the guy they moved out had a modified NTC.

2/24/20 2020 1st for Skjei

Deadline overpay for sure. Also turned into a really good player the last ~1.5 years. Call this whatever you want and I won't argue.

2/24/20 Luostarinen, Wallmark, Haula for Trocheck

Not only clearly got the best player, they walked away when he hit UFA at 29 instead of turning the move into a mistake. Excellent once again.

9/12/20 Edmundson for 5th

This was the COVID timeline change. They managed to get the Canadiens to give them a draft pick for a player who was already a UFA. Only poorly-run (Hi, Chuck) teams buy free agents. Excellent yet again.

4/21/21 Fleury for Hakanpaa (TDL rental)

They also got a 6th back in this, which was the asset I'd most like to have. Fleury has always sucked and I've always killed them for drafting him. But they're the ones that got a pick. This is a minor win.

7/22/21 Nedeljkovic for Bernier, 2021 3rd

They determined that they weren't going to pay Nedeljkovic what he wanted, so they got a good pick out of it and took zero salary back. Yet another win.

7/23/21 Bean for 2021 2nd

They got a top 50 pick for a guy they didn't want to pay, right at the end of his ELC so his value was still high. Love it.

7/28/21 Foegle for Bear

They moved a depth piece who was topped out developmentally for a guy who might have been more than that based on the info we had from Edmonton. Then when he wasn't, they got out quickly and got a pick back. Good process here once again.

3/21/22 Hreschuk for Domi and Inamoto

They bought a post-hype useful Forward with full retention and no term for the price of a 6th rounder. Not exactly great, but a perfectly reasonable depth move. And then they didn't pay him. Looks good to me.

7/8/22 TDA for 2022 4th, 2023 3rd, 2024 2nd

An absolute master class in asset management I have no desire to enumerate again.

7/13/22 Lorentz & 3rd for Burns

*Burns with retention, which is why the trade made sense.

7/13/22 Pacioretty for "future considerations"

Personally, I enjoy getting good players for free.

______________________________________________________________________


You listed out all of those trades and the worst one I can find is aggressively fine. But they always make sense.

You also forgot the one big mistake you could argue they made, but Faulk is so high variance that I never feel like I have a good handle on what I think of him as a player.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

I haven't listened but...

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

As far as your last sentence, I might agree with that if the grading scale ended at zero. Sadly, as we've seen from situations like JVR, they don't. Avoiding paying for dumps is a strong positive on multiple axes.

I have some time today, so let's do this.



They traded two solid player for two undeniable stars and a solid player. Of course, Fox was cheap because he would only sign with NYR, but they took a stab at a star with depressed value and still got value out of him on the other side. A++ by any definition.



They determined that they didn't want to sign Skinner to the UFA inflation rate deal and got value for him. Excellent process.



They got the clearly better player from a team that chose fit over talent and determined they were making a shake-up trade at all costs. Excellent process.



They rolled over their Skinner decision and leveraged it to its fullest. Excellent process.



They got out of the De Haan contract after he destroyed his shoulder and didn't take ANY salary back. Took a buy-low chance on a post-hype prospect and a Goalie who ended up not only sticking in the NHL, but getting paid. Once again excellent.



I didn't like this one at the time because I was high on Roy. But he wasn't a likely star or anything and they only gave up a 5th to get an average Forward. Let's call this one aggressively fine even if I wouldn't have made it.



For the cost of a 6th rounder, they clearly upgraded the roster spot and saved 750k in cap space without adding term. And the guy they moved out had a modified NTC.



Deadline overpay for sure. Also turned into a really good player the last ~1.5 years. Call this whatever you want and I won't argue.



Not only clearly got the best player, they walked away when he hit UFA at 29 instead of turning the move into a mistake. Excellent once again.



This was the COVID timeline change. They managed to get the Canadiens to give them a draft pick for a player who was already a UFA. Only poorly-run (Hi, Chuck) teams buy free agents. Excellent yet again.



They also got a 6th back in this, which was the asset I'd most like to have. Fleury has always sucked and I've always killed them for drafting him. But they're the ones that got a pick. This is a minor win.



They determined that they weren't going to pay Nedeljkovic what he wanted, so they got a good pick out of it and took zero salary back. Yet another win.



They got a top 50 pick for a guy they didn't want to pay, right at the end of his ELC so his value was still high. Love it.



They moved a depth piece who was topped out developmentally for a guy who might have been more than that based on the info we had from Edmonton. Then when he wasn't, they got out quickly and got a pick back. Good process here once again.



They bought a post-hype useful Forward with full retention and no term for the price of a 6th rounder. Not exactly great, but a perfectly reasonable depth move. And then they didn't pay him. Looks good to me.



An absolute master class in asset management I have no desire to enumerate again.



*Burns with retention, which is why the trade made sense.



Personally, I enjoy getting good players for free.

______________________________________________________________________


You listed out all of those trades and the worst one I can find is aggressively fine. But they always make sense.

You also forgot the one big mistake you could argue they made, but Faulk is so high variance that I never feel like I have a good handle on what I think of him as a player.

Jojo, if you still have some time can you provide a list of the moves that Chuck Fletcher has done while here that were based out of "Excellent Process?"

 

[ajgoal]

As far as your last sentence, I might agree with that if the grading scale ended at zero. Sadly, as we've seen from situations like JVR, they don't. Avoiding paying for dumps is a strong positive on multiple axes.

I have some time today, so let's do this.



They traded two solid player for two undeniable stars and a solid player. Of course, Fox was cheap because he would only sign with NYR, but they took a stab at a star with depressed value and still got value out of him on the other side. A++ by any definition.



They determined that they didn't want to sign Skinner to the UFA inflation rate deal and got value for him. Excellent process.



They got the clearly better player from a team that chose fit over talent and determined they were making a shake-up trade at all costs. Excellent process.



They rolled over their Skinner decision and leveraged it to its fullest. Excellent process.



They got out of the De Haan contract after he destroyed his shoulder and didn't take ANY salary back. Took a buy-low chance on a post-hype prospect and a Goalie who ended up not only sticking in the NHL, but getting paid. Once again excellent.



I didn't like this one at the time because I was high on Roy. But he wasn't a likely star or anything and they only gave up a 5th to get an average Forward. Let's call this one aggressively fine even if I wouldn't have made it.



For the cost of a 6th rounder, they clearly upgraded the roster spot and saved 750k in cap space without adding term. And the guy they moved out had a modified NTC.



Deadline overpay for sure. Also turned into a really good player the last ~1.5 years. Call this whatever you want and I won't argue.



Not only clearly got the best player, they walked away when he hit UFA at 29 instead of turning the move into a mistake. Excellent once again.



This was the COVID timeline change. They managed to get the Canadiens to give them a draft pick for a player who was already a UFA. Only poorly-run (Hi, Chuck) teams buy free agents. Excellent yet again.



They also got a 6th back in this, which was the asset I'd most like to have. Fleury has always sucked and I've always killed them for drafting him. But they're the ones that got a pick. This is a minor win.



They determined that they weren't going to pay Nedeljkovic what he wanted, so they got a good pick out of it and took zero salary back. Yet another win.



They got a top 50 pick for a guy they didn't want to pay, right at the end of his ELC so his value was still high. Love it.



They moved a depth piece who was topped out developmentally for a guy who might have been more than that based on the info we had from Edmonton. Then when he wasn't, they got out quickly and got a pick back. Good process here once again.



They bought a post-hype useful Forward with full retention and no term for the price of a 6th rounder. Not exactly great, but a perfectly reasonable depth move. And then they didn't pay him. Looks good to me.



An absolute master class in asset management I have no desire to enumerate again.



*Burns with retention, which is why the trade made sense.



Personally, I enjoy getting good players for free.

______________________________________________________________________


You listed out all of those trades and the worst one I can find is aggressively fine. But they always make sense.

You also forgot the one big mistake you could argue they made, but Faulk is so high variance that I never feel like I have a good handle on what I think of him as a player.

Just want to say I appreciate breakdowns like this. Thorough and easy to digest. Thanks @JojoTheWhale

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Jojo, if you still have some time can you provide a list of the moves that Chuck Fletcher has done while here that were based out of "Excellent Process?"

There really is no better way to sum up his tenure than to say this. It's Ryan Ellis. That trade made so much sense.

 

[Curufinwe]

Will TK get voted in as an All-star?

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Will TK get voted in as an All-star?

He should and like I said last night, the idea that this team will have two all star representatives on a roster that has eleven players is down right hilarious to me.

I also love the idea of the Metro and Atlantic not having a single defenseman on the roster.

 

[Chinatown88]

I have some time today, so let's do this.

Is this where your learn to speedrun Super Metroid and get WR in one day?

 

[Starat327]

Is this where your learn to speedrun Super Metroid and get WR in one day?

Its the day before a PoE patch. Jojo is mentally and physically preparing for it.

 

[BiggE]

Comparing the Flyers to Carolina is like comparing a kindergartners finger painting to a painting by Monet.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Its the day before a PoE patch. Jojo is mentally and physically preparing for it.

You're so close. The sequel to the best board game ever is arriving tomorrow, 2+ years after I Kickstarted it. Look at the size of this beast.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

You're so close. The sequel to the best board game ever is arriving tomorrow, 2+ years after I Kickstarted it. Look at the size of this beast.

Thirty eight pounds for a board game... What is this? Jumanji?

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Jojo, if you still have some time can you provide a list of the moves that Chuck Fletcher has done while here that were based out of "Excellent Process?"

I got nothing

 

[Starat327]

You're so close. The sequel to the best board game ever is arriving tomorrow, 2+ years after I Kickstarted it. Look at the size of this beast.

38 lbs?!?! I thought you bought private jets for your puppies, not shipped them UPS?!

Also, what game? :0

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Also, what game? :0

Frosthaven. It's the sequel to Gloomhaven.

The left side is Gloomhaven. The right side (white stuff) is the proofs for Frosthaven.

 

[FlyerNutter]

Why the hell is there a banana on the wall