2022/23 Roster Thread XVI: Suite 16, Room for Improvement

[Cody Webster]

Last 28 games (after the first 10 which everyone here acknowledged was a clusterf--- at the time):
Frost has 9 5x5 points (1.53 pp/60), Cates 8 (1.34 pp/60).
The difference is Frost has 6 goals with Sh 15.58%, Cates has 1 goal with Sh 4.35%.

Both centers have had equivalent wingers, Frost has JVR and Tippett, Cates has TK and Farabee.
Both are playing over their pay grade, both are still learning on the job.

Whether Cates stays at center probably depends on Couts' health, Gauthier's progress and who they draft this summer.
However, there's a good chance he ends up as the 3C who also PKs, gets time on PP2, and plays up in the lineup with a lead, much the way Couts was used his first few seasons. So his total minutes end up in the top 5 among forwards.

 

[Striiker]

TK alone has more points than Tippett and JVR combined.

TK + Farabee = 57 points
JVR + Tippett = 35 points

 

[Curufinwe]

Last 28 games

Find someone who loves you as much as deadhead loves an arbitrarily small sample size.

Been drenched in rain all over CA these past couple of weeks

I'm sure it was plenty wet for the single guys out in LA, yup.

 

[TCTC]

Charlie put out his mid-season grades earlier today, and he gave Noah Cates a B. Here is his blurb about Cates.

"By the numbers, Cates has just been OK as a rookie — 16 points in 38 games, basically a break-even play-driver at even strength. But Cates is doing all of this while adapting to both the NHL at large and the center position full-time, regularly taking on the toughest shifts of any pivot on the roster. In other words, Cates is being deployed way higher in the lineup than he would be on a good NHL team, yet he’s holding his own anyway. In addition, Cates passes the eye test with flying colors, and has already earned the trust of his teammates, particularly when it comes to his defensive acumen. They’re right to trust him — Cates currently ranks in the 94th percentile in defensive xG impact among NHL forwards. We’re talking about a guy who very well might end up with some scattered Selke Trophy votes here.

The offense, however, has been lacking, which keeps him in the B range, and he isn’t driving play at the stellar rates he was during his 16-game NHL stint in 2021-22. But there’s a very good case that’s a result of his usage, not because he lacks scoring potential. He’s looking like a great fit for a contender’s middle-six, and the hope is that he’ll benefit in the long term by playing a bit above his ideal lineup spot due to the heavy ice time (17:51) and opportunities to learn on the fly"

I've been very happy with Cates' defensive play, but as good as his defensive has been, his lack of offensive, considering his deployment is concerning. In terms of raw production, 16 points in 38 games is a good number, but then factor in ice time and his linemates. But Charlie brings up the fact that he's in the 94th percentile for defensive xG impact; however, he neglects to bring up the fact that he's in the 5th percentile for offensive xG impact by the same metric.

The line about usage is not complete, either. Yes, he's going up against top competition, but he's also being deployed with the best offensive linemates on the team. In previous posts, I've shown just how dominant TK has been in terms of offensive involvement, so the fact that he's not benefiting from that is concerning. If he wasn't being deployed with those linemates, I seriously wonder if he would have cracked 10 points at center. Then you might be having a different conversation...

All of this doesn't mean he won't be able to produce in the future, or that this deployment won't help him in the long run. It's just an inconsistency in his rankings.

I mean, he's a rookie in his first full season. I think it's a good sign that he's already pretty good at one aspect of the game. If he's talented enough, the rest will follow.

 

[Cody Webster]

TK alone has more points than Tippett and JVR combined.

TK + Farabee = 57 points
JVR + Tippett = 35 points

Well past his 10 game grace period, Frost was still centering 4th line dog shit

 

[Magua]

Noah Cates is 24 next month. He was not a mind-blowingly productive college player over 4 years. Calling him a rookie who will figure it out seems awfully facile. If anything, defensive technique follows offense, not the other way around. Defensive stats are volatile as well.

I think most everyone’s expectations are Cates is a versatile bottom 6 piece who can be a high IQ, defensive forechecking 3rd forward with skilled players, as needed. Like Raffl, with worse skating but likely higher skill. It’s the team that has chosen to stamp “CENTER” on his forehead, and play him outside his comfort zone (negating key strengths) in gigantic offensive minutes where being low event and 5th percentile offensively sort of matters.

 

[Striiker]

Well past his 10 game grace period, Frost was still centering 4th line dog shit

With 4th line dogshit icetime.

Cates is 4th among forwards in TOI/G
Frost is still 8th.

Frost has played 12 games with under 14 minutes of icetime.
Cates has played 0.

 

[renberg]

Noah Cates is 24 next month. He was not a mind-blowingly productive college player over 4 years. Calling him a rookie who will figure it out seems awfully facile. If anything, defensive technique follows offense, not the other way around. Defensive stats are volatile as well.

I think most everyone’s expectations are Cates is a versatile bottom 6 piece who can be a high IQ, defensive forechecking 3rd forward with skilled players, as needed. Like Raffl, with worse skating but likely higher skill. It’s the team that has chosen to stamp “CENTER” on his forehead, and play him outside his comfort zone (negating key strengths) in gigantic offensive minutes where being low event and 5th percentile offensively sort of matters.

I may be wrong but didn’t Minnesota-Duluth play a pretty conservative brand of hockey? There may be more upside to Cates’ offensive game than he has exhibited up to this point in his career. His defense has always been sound. That’s why when he gets into international play, he’s been relegated to non scoring lines.

 

[deadhead]

last 28 games:

Frost
w/ Tippett 196 minutes, GF 11
w/ JVR 132 minutes, GF 8
w/ Farabee 95 minutes, GF 6
w/ Deslauriers 47 minutes, GF 0
w/ MacEwen 46 minutes, GF 1
w/ Bellows 39 minutes, GF 0
w/ TK 30 minutes, GF 2

Cates
W/ TK 155 minutes, GF 5
w/ MacEwen 133 minutes GF 5
w/ Hayes 109 minutes, GF 3
w/ Farabee 100 minutes, GF 4
w/ Laughton 55 minutes, GF 5
w/ Tippett 44 minutes, GF 3
w/ Sedlak 38 minutes, GF 2

TK has 9 5x5 goals, 10 in other situations.

 

[kudymen]

In all the years of reading how "this guy is basically equal to this guy", it was fun watching how the franchise was falling down the standings. They are all equal and still not making any mistakes, they just happen to go f*** themselves.

 

[Beef Invictus]

last 28 games:

Frost
w/ Tippett 196 minutes, GF 11
w/ JVR 132 minutes, GF 8
w/ Farabee 95 minutes, GF 6
w/ Deslauriers 47 minutes, GF 0
w/ MacEwen 46 minutes, GF 1
w/ Bellows 39 minutes, GF 0
w/ TK 30 minutes, GF 2

Cates
W/ TK 155 minutes, GF 5
w/ MacEwen 133 minutes GF 5
w/ Hayes 109 minutes, GF 3
w/ Farabee 100 minutes, GF 4
w/ Laughton 55 minutes, GF 5
w/ Tippett 44 minutes, GF 3
w/ Sedlak 38 minutes, GF 2

TK has 9 5x5 goals, 10 in other situations.

Why 28 games? How random.


I wonder how negatively TK is impacted by playing with a bottom six winger as his top 6 center.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

With 4th line dogshit icetime.

Cates is 4th among forwards in TOI/G
Frost is still 8th.

Frost has played 12 games with under 14 minutes of icetime.
Cates has played 0.

Poor Frosty. Flyers ruined him, he needs a change of scenario. Maybe he leaves with Arizona after the game.

 

[VladDrag]

I may be wrong but didn’t Minnesota-Duluth play a pretty conservative brand of hockey? There may be more upside to Cates’ offensive game than he has exhibited up to this point in his career. His defense has always been sound. That’s why when he gets into international play, he’s been relegated to non scoring lines.

Yes they played a very defensive first system. But why playing 4 years in a system like that would develop untapped offensive talent? I mean maybe there is something left…

But he’s 24, never been a primary point producer at any lower level. Do we really think there’s a significant offensive player in there waiting to be untapped? If he turns into a legit top 6 center, that’s like 99.97% outcome. It’s just so unlikely that happens.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

In all the years of reading how "this guy is basically equal to this guy", it was fun watching how the franchise was falling down the standings. They are all equal and still not making any mistakes, they just happen to go f*** themselves.

nothing matters....

 

[Bruckuss]

Approx 5 years ago we were looking pretty good and had so much talent in the pipeline... I am pretty sure I told friends to quote me on going to the cup and having a real window. Decent roster and probably the deepest pool kind of thing, just wait til they all start hitting.

Those were the days

 

[Magua]

That’s why when he gets into international play, he’s been relegated to non scoring lines.

The Olympics was just overplaying untalented guys in some Swiss tier 2 league over college kids. Didn’t work. As for the u20s, he played a lot in scoring minutes. It was a running gag how much of a coach’s pet he was. Which is a theme because he does do the little things well. But he was also at wing and not in the NHL.

He’s not a bum offensively. The Flyers have done their best to minimize a potentially respectable depth scorer. He looked a lot better offensively and all-around last season at wing, beyond points. He’s not a mystery box player to me.

 

[Striiker]

Since 1/3

Frost: 14.94 p/60
Cates: 0.00 p/60

Wow. Miles apart.

 

[Adtar02]

Since 1/3

Frost: 14.94 p/60
Cates: 0.00 p/60

Wow. Miles apart.

2023

 

[Striiker]

2023

For the whole year

Frost: 9.21 p/60
Cates 3.97 p/60

Frost is still completely dominating the head to head over the larger sample.

 

[Tripod]

Poor Frosty. Flyers ruined him, he needs a change of scenario. Maybe he leaves with Arizona after the gamgame

I think AZ saw enough of Frosty tonight.

 

[trostol]

rebuilding!!!!!

rebuilding!!!

rebuilding!!!!!!

yeah thats not happening

 

[Starat327]

rebuilding!!!!!

rebuilding!!!

rebuilding!!!!!!

yeah thats not happening

I read here you rebuild by trading first round picks for AHL defenders and trade away other picks for 3rd pair specialists while also using picks to move on from " 3rd pair specialists"

 

[captainpaxil]

Why 28 games? How random.


I wonder how negatively TK is impacted by playing with a bottom six winger as his top 6 center.

It's a legitimate distinction. no one thought the team that won in the beginning of the year was going to stay that way.

 

[Ironmanrulez]

Noah Cates is 24 next month. He was not a mind-blowingly productive college player over 4 years. Calling him a rookie who will figure it out seems awfully facile. If anything, defensive technique follows offense, not the other way around. Defensive stats are volatile as well.

I think most everyone’s expectations are Cates is a versatile bottom 6 piece who can be a high IQ, defensive forechecking 3rd forward with skilled players, as needed. Like Raffl, with worse skating but likely higher skill. It’s the team that has chosen to stamp “CENTER” on his forehead, and play him outside his comfort zone (negating key strengths) in gigantic offensive minutes where being low event and 5th percentile offensively sort of matters.

Could Cates be what the flyers thought a young Couturier was? Not at Center but at wing.

 

[Beef Invictus]

It's a legitimate distinction. no one thought the team that won in the beginning of the year was going to stay that way.

It's a silly line to draw. They weren't suddenly a different team in game 11. It's all the same team.