2022/23 Roster Thread XIX: 19th Nervous Breakdown

[Beef Invictus]

Penalty rates in the playoffs are the same as the regular season.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

Both the Pens and Lightning won when they built a team capable of tight checking as well as scoring.

Both of those teams built a core of skill before addressing supporting needs.

There is no path to playoff success where a core of skill is not the foundation of whatever you're trying to build.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Both of those teams built a core of skill before addressing supporting needs.

There is no path to playoff success where a core of skill is not the foundation of whatever you're trying to build.

No no, the bottom depth is clearly the most important. Except for Colorado. Please ignore NAK winning that cup. In that situation, the depth is irrelevant and also secretly terrible.

 

[deadhead]

You can often understand angles of approach even if you disagree with them. The idea that they're not significantly worse off than they were when Fletcher took over is so detached from reality that it's not worth your time to discuss. Time makes your assets worse. That's how it works for everyone and a large part of why it's so hard to build an org out fully.

The Hextall era assets are all older and you got basically zero significant jumps from them outside of the Goalies. The prospect depth was ritually disemboweled. If you love Gauthier and think he can be young Scheifele, that's your call. But that doesn't make up for everything else.

What they do have is more middling prime age NHL talent. Hooray.

They have gotten younger and they have developed some prime trade bait.

Risto, Laughton, TDA, Sanheim, Provorov, Allison are in the age range where they have value and will sustain value over the next couple years. They're not elite players, but good enough to get solid assets back. Much easier to move for value than Voracek/Atkinson, JVR and Hayes.

And they have a solid group of young players and prospects, no one elite, but the 2nd line/2nd pair, middle six guys you need to fill out a team. And some potentially top goalies in Hart, Ersson and Fedotov.

What they need are 2-3 top players, a top D-man, a playmaking center, the kind that make players around them better.

But there's enough here for a good GM to build on, if he has support and patience from the FO.

Penalty rates in the playoffs are the same as the regular season.

That's a bit misleading, as in the NFL and NBA, players push the envelope, so penalty rates stay the same, but the play becomes more aggressive. It just moves to a new equilibrium point.

Both of those teams built a core of skill before addressing supporting needs.

There is no path to playoff success where a core of skill is not the foundation of whatever you're trying to build.

But both teams realized that skill was not enough in the playoffs, that what won you regular games was necessary but not sufficient.

 

[mja]

Both of those teams built a core of skill before addressing supporting needs.

There is no path to playoff success where a core of skill is not the foundation of whatever you're trying to build.

This is so self-evident that it defies belief that anyone could ever think otherwise, and yet here we are.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Playoffs are different in all sports. Some is luck, but a lot is how a team is constructed.

Regular seasons tend to be a marathon, in baseball you need a deep starting staff, in NHL, offensive teams fare better b/c opponents don't bear down every game and they can quickly put games out of reach.

NHL playoffs tend to be more physical as refs swallow their whistles and teams check at a higher level of intensity (smaller windows). It's harder to outscore your mistakes, and weakness in goal is magnified.

Both the Pens and Lightning won when they built a team capable of tight checking as well as scoring.

Note when Rutherford promoted Sullivan, they also brought up a half dozen of his AHL players and shipped some veterans out of town. In TB, they brought in Goodrow and Coleman and gave Guorde a bigger role, as well as more size on defense.

And they had top goalie play as well.

The relative importance of a 4 and 5 starter or a backup Goalie in the RS vs PO is a perfectly reasonable statement.

The direct linking of Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman being the difference between losing in the 1st round and winning a Cup is insane. I will not recognize it as an argument worthy of a response. Because it's not. They lost that series that has ruined hockey discourse for decades because they couldn't generate offense. We literally discussed this two days ago and you agreed.

Risto, Laughton, TDA, Sanheim, Provorov, Allison are in the age range where they have value and will sustain value over the next couple years.

Worth less.
Worth less.
Worth less.
Worth less.
Worth less.
Worth less but probably not enough to measure.

Seems worse off to me.

 

[Striiker]

You guys think they won because of guys like Crosby, Malkin, Letang, Point, Kucherov, Stamkos, etc?!?!?!?!?!!?!?!?!?!

LOL THATS REGULAR SEASON SKILL

PLAYOFFS = SIZE

 

[deadhead]

It's not about size, unless we're talking the TB defense, which has been the biggest in the NHL.

It's about the ability to aggressively forecheck and back check, Pens did it, TB did, we just saw Colorado do it.

To me, in today's NHL, the ideal bottom six forwards are 6'0 200 with above average speed with high motors and tenacity.

Most teams, even the top playoff teams, field at best two good scoring lines, playing say 28 or so minute at 5x5 (these are the players who tend to fill out the PP units as well). The other 22 minutes, plus PK, tend to be played by bottom six players.

So while your top two lines are key, the bottom two lines are still playing 40% or so of your ice time.
They can score, but it's usually less about skill than forcing turnovers, keeping the puck in the O-zone and being opportunistic. If they can do that, and make the other team's top line work, that can be a big edge.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I just want to add one thing that bothers me quite a bit. We often talk about these teams like Tampa and Boston as having done things right over the course of a decade. But so much of that comes down to nailing a few draft picks many years before.

The point of this is that our ideas of what does and doesn't work mostly comes down to a couple of draft picks overdelivering.

What I personally look for in orgs now is those that seem to understand their own limitations. When they get reclamation projects, do they pay top dollar or do they invest minimal assets? Do they ever sell off players that are good for them at their value peak? Do they make a high quantity of draft picks? Basically, can I tell that they understand what they feel versus what they know?

 

[Beef Invictus]

It's not about size, unless we're talking the TB defense, which has been the biggest in the NHL.

It's about the ability to aggressively forecheck and back check, Pens did it, TB did, we just saw Colorado do it.

To me, in today's NHL, the ideal bottom six forwards are 6'0 200 with above average speed with high motors and tenacity.

Most teams, even the top playoff teams, field at best two good scoring lines, playing say 28 or so minute at 5x5 (these are the players who tend to fill out the PP units as well). The other 22 minutes, plus PK, tend to be played by bottom six players.

So while your top two lines are key, the bottom two lines are still playing 40% or so of your ice time.
They can score, but it's usually less about skill than forcing turnovers, keeping the puck in the O-zone and being opportunistic. If they can do that, and make the other team's top line work, that can be a big edge.

TB didn't win on aggressive forechecking though, they won on elite and unstoppable transitions.

 

[deadhead]

I just want to add one thing that bothers me quite a bit. We often talk about these teams like Tampa and Boston as having done things right over the course of a decade. But so much of that comes down to nailing a few draft picks many years before.

The point of this is that our ideas of what does and doesn't work mostly comes down to a couple of draft picks overdelivering.

What I personally look for in orgs now is those that seem to understand their own limitations. When they get reclamation projects, do they pay top dollar or do they invest minimal assets? Do they ever sell off players that are good for them at their value peak? Do they make a high quantity of draft picks? Basically, can I tell that they understand what they feel versus what they know?

Well, that certainly applies to Boston, which nailed Bergeron, Krejci and Marchand 15 to 17 years ago, but they also found Pastrnak and MacAvoy and some solid depth players, while blowing numerous top ten picks.

TB I think did a better job in assessing value and knowing when to buy and sell. Guorde, Palat, Killorn, Cirelli, Colton. Picking up Cernak. Yes, it helps to have Hedman and Stamkos and Vasilevskiv, but not nearly enough. They've managed to stay competitive for an extended period.

Luck is the residue of design.

TB didn't win on aggressive forechecking though, they won on elite and unstoppable transitions.

2019-20: allowed 54 goals in 25 games
2020-21: allowed 44 goals in 23 games
2021-22: allowed 59 goals in 23 games

 

[Beef Invictus]

Well, that certainly applies to Boston, which nailed Bergeron, Krejci and Marchand 15 to 17 years ago, but they also found Pastrnak and MacAvoy and some solid depth players, while blowing numerous top ten picks.

TB I think did a better job in assessing value and knowing when to buy and sell. Guorde, Palat, Killorn, Cirelli, Colton. Picking up Cernak. Yes, it helps to have Hedman and Stamkos and Vasilevskiv, but not nearly enough. They've managed to stay competitive for an extended period.

Luck is the residue of design.


2019-20: allowed 54 goals in 25 games
2020-21: allowed 44 goals in 23 games
2021-22: allowed 59 goals in 23 games

Cherrypicking_Crab.gif

They were the best team in the league at relentlessly driving the puck up ice in a flash. Maybe the best I can ever remember seeing. That kind of thing drives possession. They touch the puck and it's in the other end getting put on net off the rush.

 

[Striiker]

Cherrypicking_Crab.gif

They were the best team in the league at relentlessly driving the puck up ice in a flash. Maybe the best I can ever remember seeing. That kind of thing drives possession. They touch the puck and it's in the other end getting put on net off the rush.

Yup. Puck possession is what prevents goals, not size or hitting or checking or any other dinosaur-fetish bullshit.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Yup. Puck possession is what prevents goals, not size or hitting or checking or any other dinosaur-fetish bullshit.

Yep. Their ability to get the puck quickly and move it even faster was vastly more important than grinding it out.

 

[Striiker]

Yep. Their ability to get the puck quickly and move it even faster was vastly more important than grinding it out.

Which is exactly why Ghost is better defensively than guys like Hagg or Ristolainen, in spite of stereotypes fooling the average casual fan and every idiot involved with the Flyers org.

 

[deadhead]

Which is exactly why Ghost is better defensively than guys like Hagg or Ristolainen, in spite of stereotypes fooling the average casual fan and every idiot involved with the Flyers org.

Yes, Ghost is so good that as a pending UFA he garnered a 2026 3rd rd pick.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Yes, Ghost is so good that as a pending UFA he garnered a 2026 3rd rd pick.

Are GMs infallible?

 

[freakydallas13]

Yes, Ghost is so good that as a pending UFA he garnered a 2026 3rd rd pick.

I guess that makes Ghost *checks math* infinite times better than JVR.

 

[deadhead]

I think if Fletcher had played his cards right, he could have gotten a 2026 3rd for JVR.

But given how the league valued Voracek, Ghost and JVR with those contracts, we do need to put some blame on Hextall, that's $20M of basically unmovable contracts.

Doesn't absolve Chuck, just shows the mistakes go back a decade.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I think if Fletcher had played his cards right, he could have gotten a 2026 3rd for JVR.

But given how the league valued Voracek, Ghost and JVR with those contracts, we do need to put some blame on Hextall, that's $20M of basically unmovable contracts.

Doesn't absolve Chuck, just shows the mistakes go back a decade.

This doesn't say shit about Hextall. It says a lot about Fletcher's inability to win a move, ever.

 

[kudymen]

Yes, Ghost is so good that as a pending UFA he garnered a 2026 3rd rd pick.

So you are saying he got an asset back, as opposed to what happened here? The time value is irrelevant - of course the value is different in various time frames, but it remains positive. he got an asset back. No matter how you frame it. Hanging onto this one argument makes you look desperate.

Does a rebuilding organization need more or less assets?

Sidequestion, does a rebuilding organization need even minor assets for an asset they are about to lose for free (JvR) or is it better to gain nothing after not doing any homework on reading the market?

 

[trostol]

not sure why he keeps going on about the Yotes getting a 2026 3rd pick back..that means they got something for an asset..as opposed to chuck having to f***ing pay for someone to take him..to mean that means he had value

 

[deadhead]

As far as "development," there's a simple reason the Flyers don't develop a lot of good offensive players, they don't draft them in the first place. Last decade of drafting:

TK, Sanheim, Patrick, Frost, Ghost - who else was an elite scorer at lower levels?
They didn't suppress the offense of these players, injuries killed Patrick and hindered Ghost.

The reason the Flyers don't have good offensive players is they didn't draft them or trade for them.
Laughton, Farabee, NAK, Allison, Rubtsov, Laberge, Ratcliffe, JOB, Ginning. All 1st and 2nd rd.
None were elite offensive players going into their draft seasons.

And how many "fliers" did they take in the 3rd and 4th rds, skilled players who were too small or too raw to take in the first two rounds? Ghost. That's it in 10 years. Hextall focused on big, physical forwards in that area of the draft.

 

[deadhead]

This is a bit bizarre when you think about it:

"Look, I understand our fans are really disappointed. The last two years, we've tried to be competitive... to maximize the last two years of Giroux's contract."

Now we all love G, but really, does anything think of him in his 30s as a McDavid level player who can carry a franchise on his back? I mean if you think your window being open depended on G, uh, "Houston, we have a problem."

 

[Beef Invictus]

As far as "development," there's a simple reason the Flyers don't develop a lot of good offensive players, they don't draft them in the first place. Last decade of drafting:

TK, Sanheim, Patrick, Frost, Ghost - who else was an elite scorer at lower levels?
They didn't suppress the offense of these players, injuries killed Patrick and hindered Ghost.

The reason the Flyers don't have good offensive players is they didn't draft them or trade for them.
Laughton, Farabee, NAK, Allison, Rubtsov, Laberge, Ratcliffe, JOB, Ginning. All 1st and 2nd rd.
None were elite offensive players going into their draft seasons.

And how many "fliers" did they take in the 3rd and 4th rds, skilled players who were too small or too raw to take in the first two rounds? Ghost. That's it in 10 years. Hextall focused on big, physical forwards in that area of the draft.

There's a much simpler reason: they discourage offense. Actively. And this began when they had to try to salvage Bryzgalov. They went all in on going defensive at the cost of all else and haven't looked back since. It was probably destiny that they'd hire this loser Tortorella, especially since he was the premier anti-offense coach when they made this decision.