2022/23 Roster Thread XIX: 19th Nervous Breakdown

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Since Cates had a stable line at center, he's scoring at a solid 3C pace.
Given he came out of an ultra-conservative college system, and moved to center as a rookie, why would you think he has no offensive upside left?

Reason I used Dec 7 was both centers had solid linemates (JVR and Tippett for Frost) after that date, so that eliminates that excuse. Before then Cates shifted back and forth from LW and center with multiple linemates including MacEwen for a long stretch.

They are different players in different roles, Frost gets the easier defensive assignments b/c he's the better offensive player, Cates is used as a shutdown center.
Because where would the offensive ability come from. Why would it only show up right now? It's would be so unusual.

This ignores that Cates has been given much better wingers than Frost. You can say what you want but it's been proven multiple times that TK is by far the best offensive player the Flyers have. When it comes to scoring for forwards the biggest impact is quality of forward teammate. I have posted this article previously.
 
You know, when you use terms like group think and herd, you sound like you're trying to sound smarter and better than everyone else. If you want to have a conversation, I would suggest not trying to come off like an asshole. Now, I don't think that's what you were trying to do, but that's exactly how it reads.


At any rate, regarding Cates, Frost, Tippett... They all have proven to be NHL players right, even if none of them get better. The question isn't what are they right now, it's what is it they will grow into....keeping in mind there probably isn't likely a whole lot of growth left in terms of pure hockey play from any of them. The question is more like, is there anything in their skill set where you can extract more positive value. In terms of all three, that's where Frost shines higher than Cates or Tippett. It was pretty clear Frost lacked confidence over the first 20 game of the season. But there's been some very positive signs. His pedigree suggests there is more there, he's been one of the best players of his age group, so you want to see if there is another step there. And he's the most likely of all three to be a top 6 player long term. I am willing to bet Frost puts up a 50-60 point season next year (this is obviously depending on other variables).

Tippett has been good this year. But can you say there is anything to his game that suggests there's more fat on the bone? He generates thru his athletic ability but lacks high end processing. Still a good middle player, but I don't see much growth left and in my eyes he's the most likely of the three to see regression, although I don't think you will see it.

With Cates, I just don't see a whole lot of growth based on his history. He's been a great defender but a black hole offensively. I do wonder if you switched Frost and Cates from the beginning of the year (gave Frost TK and Farabee as most common wingers) what would he look like right now.
You are right. I’m not saying I am smarter than everyone else, and I’m not trying to pick a fight. I’ve been on this board probably longer than anyone here. I go back to before the Lindros to the Rangers trade, yet I have a lot less posts than others. I am probably smarter than some and not as smart as others. That said, there is obvious groupthink here. It seems when someone goes against what the heavy posters think, they get buried by a lot of people, some of which don’t sound very smart themselves. deadhead is not always wrong, yet he gets attacked just about every time he posts something. I would say that I used to disagree with almost every thing he said. At some point, I noticed that he was making more sense and giving more thoughtful answers, yet he gets attacked constantly. To me that reeks of groupthink.

I like to read most of the posters here, you included. I especially enjoy Flyguy‘s prospect posts, and Toe’s as well. LOD used to do a lot of good work on the Flyers prospects. He still provides a lot of info on prospects. I read all of their posts when when I can. I read everything Appleyard posts. He is very informative. I really enjoy laughing the Captain’s posts, twitter posts and gifs. JoJo does some really good stuff on the NFL draft. I could go on and on.

the thing that does bother me is all of the piling on when somebody says something that goes against the grain even though it may just be another way of looking at things.

The groupthink I think that is spot on is the antiFletcher antScott stuff. None of us can stomach this horrid directionless management crew. I don’t go after the senior advisors though as I think once they installed Fletch they settled mostly into retirement, aside from Billy Barber apparentl. I loved Barber the player and hope what ASF says about him being the guy guiding Scott is wrong, but I do want a fresh team in here to run the show and am worried that Danny Briere is not the guy we need. I don’t know who is, that would be available.
 
Because where would the offensive ability come from. Why would it only show up right now? It's would be so unusual.

This ignores that Cates has been given much better wingers than Frost. You can say what you want but it's been proven multiple times that TK is by far the best offensive player the Flyers have. When it comes to scoring for forwards the biggest impact is quality of forward teammate. I have posted this article previously.
Last 36 games (since Dec 7)
Frost: JVR 316, Tippett 321, Farabee 96, TK 72, Allison 50, Hayes 44
Cates: TK 311, Farabee 229, Hayes 106, Allison 70, JVR 60, Laughton 50, Deslauriers 48, Tippett 44

However, it's both quality of linemates and "fit." Frost and Tippett showed very good chemistry last season and it carried over to this season. Not sure Frost would do much better swapping TK for Tippett.
 
Some was Therrien, some was TK replacing Simmonds, some was Provorov replacing Ghost (who fell off drastically in 2019-20).
 
Sorry to disappoint you, but I look more like Mike D’Antoni I’m told. Although to be the coach of the Flyers would be pretty cool, you have to admit. So thank you!
I’m only kidding around. :laugh:

I was shitting on Torts, you defended Torts and echoed everything he thinks, so now you’re Torts. Sorry, those are the rules.

Also, zero “groupthink” here. Keep in mind I argued with like 99% of this board for two or three straight years when they were swearing I was wrong about AV and Fletchers incompetence. Or when everyone was doubting Ghost, or Giroux before that. I don’t give a solitary f*** if nobody agrees with me, if I’m confident I’m right and I can back up my argument then that’s all that matters.
 
I’m only kidding around. :laugh:

I was shitting on Torts, you defended Torts and echoed everything he thinks, so now you’re Torts. Sorry, those are the rules.

Also, zero “groupthink” here. Keep in mind I argued with like 99% of this board for two or three straight years when they were swearing I was wrong about AV and Fletchers incompetence. Or when everyone was doubting Ghost, or Giroux before that. I don’t give a solitary f*** if nobody agrees with me, if I’m confident I’m right and I can back up my argument then that’s all that matters.

Interestingly, Thats the same rationalization we all use to call you an idiot.
 
Last 36 games (since Dec 7)
Frost: JVR 316, Tippett 321, Farabee 96, TK 72, Allison 50, Hayes 44
Cates: TK 311, Farabee 229, Hayes 106, Allison 70, JVR 60, Laughton 50, Deslauriers 48, Tippett 44

However, it's both quality of linemates and "fit." Frost and Tippett showed very good chemistry last season and it carried over to this season. Not sure Frost would do much better swapping TK for Tippett.

At 5v5 this year

This year TK and Frost have played 88 min together, xGF/60 - 3.23 xGA/60 - 2.69 (54.52%)
This year Frost and Tippett played 405 min together xGF/60 - 2.4. xGA/60 - 2.63 (46.05%)


Last 3 years TK and Frost have played 226 min xGF/60 -2.95 xGA/60 - 2.75 ( 51.68%)

Frost and TK have shown very good fit over the limited sample size.
 
At 5v5 this year

This year TK and Frost have played 88 min together, xGF/60 - 3.23 xGA/60 - 2.69 (54.52%)
This year Frost and Tippett played 405 min together xGF/60 - 2.4. xGA/60 - 2.63 (46.05%)


Last 3 years TK and Frost have played 226 min xGF/60 -2.95 xGA/60 - 2.75 ( 51.68%)

Frost and TK have shown very good fit over the limited sample size.
Have to be careful with small sample here, b/c it may well be TK was put with Frost in obvious scoring situations (behind in the 3rd period?). One reason I only look at SVA metrics (Jo Jo taught me that one).

The roles are so different that you'd expect different results.
Frost gets O-zone time against weaker competition, he should score. That's his job.
That 36 game stretch he improved his scoring with better linemates, as you would expect.

It'll be interesting to see what happens if Couts comes back close to 100%, that would take a lot of pressure of both Frost and Cates, and might help them develop with more manageable matchups.
 
Have to be careful with small sample here, b/c it may well be TK was put with Frost in obvious scoring situations (behind in the 3rd period?). One reason I only look at SVA metrics (Jo Jo taught me that one).

The roles are so different that you'd expect different results.
Frost gets O-zone time against weaker competition, he should score. That's his job.
That 36 game stretch he improved his scoring with better linemates, as you would expect.

It'll be interesting to see what happens if Couts comes back close to 100%, that would take a lot of pressure of both Frost and Cates, and might help them develop with more manageable matchups.

You’re certainly right about sample sizes here, but I think there is enough there to see that those two together have shown some ability to generate chances.

This might be some area where we just disagree, Frost and TK are the two most cerebral forwards and would be very good on a line together.
 
At 5v5 this year

This year TK and Frost have played 88 min together, xGF/60 - 3.23 xGA/60 - 2.69 (54.52%)
This year Frost and Tippett played 405 min together xGF/60 - 2.4. xGA/60 - 2.63 (46.05%)


Last 3 years TK and Frost have played 226 min xGF/60 -2.95 xGA/60 - 2.75 ( 51.68%)

Frost and TK have shown very good fit over the limited sample size.

Solid!
 
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You’re certainly right about sample sizes here, but I think there is enough there to see that those two together have shown some ability to generate chances.

This might be some area where we just disagree, Frost and TK are the two most cerebral forwards and would be very good on a line together.
Skilled yes, cerebral? Watching Frost on the PP he's not in the same class as G in terms of play making vision, he's far more dependent on skill.

I don't know how good Cates can be offensively, but he has a higher hockey IQ and has great hands in a crowd, as he gets stronger he'll win even more puck battles, which is a key skill in the dirty areas near the blue paint. He doesn't have the skills that jump out at you (speed or the killer wrist shot) but like Farabee, may be able to use his IQ to compensate. We'll see over time, he simply hasn't spent much of his hockey career trying to create offense.
 
Skilled yes, cerebral? Watching Frost on the PP he's not in the same class as G in terms of play making vision, he's far more dependent on skill.
I don’t know why you think comparing Frost to Giroux, on the PP is remotely fair. Giroux lead the league, or was near the top, in pp points for like 5 consecutive seasons. It’s just not a fair comparison.
 
Have to be careful with small sample here, b/c it may well be TK was put with Frost in obvious scoring situations (behind in the 3rd period?). One reason I only look at SVA metrics (Jo Jo taught me that one).

The roles are so different that you'd expect different results.
Frost gets O-zone time against weaker competition, he should score. That's his job.
That 36 game stretch he improved his scoring with better linemates, as you would expect.

It'll be interesting to see what happens if Couts comes back close to 100%, that would take a lot of pressure of both Frost and Cates, and might help them develop with more manageable matchups.
Rich dude. Rich.

@Beef Invictus can I get a cherry pickin’ crab please?
 
It’s not just skill players that have to get comfortable. AJ Greer is as grindy as it comes and he flat out told Shawn Ferris he didn’t play well in multiple previous stops because he knew one mistake could get him sent down. It’s a shitty way to handle anybody.
I can't imagine how many players play with this mindset. Having to constantly over think your mistakes is going to hamper your playing ability.
 
I can't imagine how many players play with this mindset. Having to constantly over think your mistakes is going to hamper your playing ability.
It's a balance. Torts has told the young players he wants them to make mistakes of aggression, I think what gets a young player in trouble is when coaches repeatedly tell them something and it goes in one ear and out the other - the parents around here I'm sure have a lot of experience with that!

One reason to marinate players in the AHL is to give them enough PT so a lot of things become second nature, like knowing where everyone is on the ice (much like using your rear view mirror when driving). That pass by Frost was a good example, weak pass and he didn't see the defender anticipating it, rush the other way ending up in a goal. Those are preventable mistakes.
 
I can't imagine how many players play with this mindset. Having to constantly over think your mistakes is going to hamper your playing ability.

It's not coincidence that Frost didn't start playing with confidence until his spot was secure. And it was only secured because there were enough injuries that the team had to stop f***ing with him and fabricating reasons to demote him.
 
It's a balance. Torts has told the young players he wants them to make mistakes of aggression, I think what gets a young player in trouble is when coaches repeatedly tell them something and it goes in one ear and out the other - the parents around here I'm sure have a lot of experience with that!

One reason to marinate players in the AHL is to give them enough PT so a lot of things become second nature, like knowing where everyone is on the ice (much like using your rear view mirror when driving). That pass by Frost was a good example, weak pass and he didn't see the defender anticipating it, rush the other way ending up in a goal. Those are preventable mistakes.

Not really. It would probably just be far better to be called into the GM / coach office after a X period of not playing well and be told you're getting sent down. Having to play the game of "where do I stand today?" is utter trash and is something only a toxic work environment harbors.
 
Not really. It would probably just be far better to be called into the GM / coach office after a X period of not playing well and be told you're getting sent down. Having to play the game of "where do I stand today?" is utter trash and is something only a toxic work environment harbors.

Or on the other side, assured you aren't being sent down.
 
I'm curious to what people think of Owen Tippett.

I haven't watched this club at all but just peeking into his stats, he's seem to have improved his point production.
 
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