Prospect Info: 2022-23 Prospect Development Tracker

[Kcb12345]

Also this:

 

[BG44]

Ljungman remains on the top line, but it looks like Sjoberg may play sparingly. Currently listed as the 13th forward.

 

[Kcb12345]

Really wish Bichsel was playing

 

[starsfan86]

Really wish Bichsel was playing

I hope they get the shit kicked out of them.

 

[BG44]

Bichsel starts the pre-season at RD on the 3rd pair. The game was yesterday, but I didn't see a boxscore.

 

[BG44]

My question would be why did this Swiss journalist wait until the last 24 hours to write this? Every Swiss outlet jumped on Bichsel for being selfish and asking for favoritism. This reasonable take probably would have been nice a few weeks ago when the rest of the nation's outlets seemed to be dumping on him rather than waiting for the tournament to start.

Bichsel's sacking is an unparalleled stupidity. Because this decision is not based on intelligent considerations and empathy. But rather arrogance and overconfidence, which we cannot afford at this level.


If Marco Bayer also messes up this World Cup, it's time to ask yourself whether it wouldn't be better to do without him in the future. The well-being of the team and success are more important than the principles and ego of the coach and the federation's sporting director.

https://www.watson.ch/!488280968?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social-user&utm_campaign=watson-site-mobile

 

[Captain Awesome]

I don't think you can box score watch and then have a strong opinion on a prospect like this. I think you need to break down the nuances to Grushnikov's season. We're talking about his first year on North American ice on one of Canada's best junior hockey teams. Grushnikov defends at a high level- and he proved it this year in his 18 year old season. It was a good year to stay in his lane and learn the ropes in NA. These were his teammates that he had to battle for icetime and opportunity:

Staois (20, returning Bulldog)
Kamerrer (20, returning Bulldog)
White (19, returning Bulldog)
Xhekaj (21, mid-season trade)

I think I'd be concerned if he didn't develop offensively this upcoming season. He'll be thrust into larger roles and have a rapport with the coaching staff.

This is totally fair, there are some reasons why he maybe struggled that are legitimate, but I’d probably have the same stance unless something changed very dramatically, d+2 seasons in juniors are always a little suspect because these guys are so much older, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt.

 

[BG44]

This is totally fair, there are some reasons why he maybe struggled that are legitimate, but I’d probably have the same stance unless something changed very dramatically, d+2 seasons in juniors are always a little suspect because these guys are so much older, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt.

What? D+2 seasons aren't remotely suspect. Bourque and Stranges were just coming off their D+2 seasons. Robertson's monster season was D+2. D+2 in the CHL is the rule not the exception.

 

[Kcb12345]

Ljungman looks like a very bleh prospect. There's nothing there, just a guy it seems.

My first time watching him outside of highlights of course so doesn't mean much and almost all of Sweden looks bad, but I am genuinely curious if he's only on the top line cause they ran out of options lol

Btw yall should go vote for Stankoven on the prospects poll on main board

 

[BG44]

Ljungman looks like a very bleh prospect. There's nothing there, just a guy it seems.

He looks like he did in HockeyAllsvenskan. He really has little creativity in the offensive zone, but more often than not the one positive you can say is he consistently finds himself battling in front of the net, and he wins most of his board battles.

He's basically a Bottom 6 prospect, but he's not a top-end defensive forward either like Back was at this age or is now.

Sjoberg hasn't played much at all, but he did start picking up a few shifts before that Swedish forward got hurt. He might get to play a regular shift unless that guy comes back.

 

[starsfan86]

He looks like he did in HockeyAllsvenskan. He really has little creativity in the offensive zone, but more often than not the one positive you can say is he consistently finds himself battling in front of the net, and he wins most of his board battles.

He's basically a Bottom 6 prospect, but he's not a top-end defensive forward either like Back was at this age or is now.

Sjoberg hasn't played much at all, but he did start picking up a few shifts before that Swedish forward got hurt. He might get to play a regular shift unless that guy comes back.

Highly doubt they make it to the NHL anyways.

 

[BG44]

My first time watching him outside of highlights of course so doesn't mean much and almost all of Sweden looks bad, but I am genuinely curious if he's only on the top line cause they ran out of options lol

Think Cody Eakin with Benn and Seguin. He's merely a safety valve for highly talented wingers. He's consistently the first forward back on defense, and he barely moves from the front of the net most shifts so far this game.

It's definitely not inspiring, but he's basically on the ice to not screw up and let the more talented guys do their thing. That's not really working out that way at the moment.

 

[Captain Awesome]

When you look at the analytics guys lists for top defensive defenders, fairly consistently, unless it's a high-end offensive player or two-way player that just drives play so much that they provide good defense with great offense (Makar, McAvoy), none of the guys on that list were big scorers at 18 to 22 in lower leagues. Most of them I noticed just happened to go the NCAA route so for whatever reason that league seems to be much more represented than the CHL.

I have to agree with Satan that scoreboard-watching a defensive defenseman is questionable at best, and saying junior offensive production corresponds in some way to NHL success in a defensive role is also not something I think most of those analytics guys would agree with. I think they'd say those offensive projections simply predict offensive ability in the NHL and in no way predict what a defensive-leaning player is going to do at that level.

The one thing I don't agree with Satan about though is I'm not worried if Grushnikov doesn't break out offensively. None of the pure defensive defenders that the analytics guy love at the NHL level had breakout offensive years in the CHL, NCAA, or AHL. They remained mostly low-scoring defensive defenders as they progressed to the NHL. The only thing that matters is Grushnikov continues to be special defensively at the level he's playing which he was last year as Hamilton fell a game short of the Memorial Cup.

I was specifically talking about juniors, as in CHL guys when I posted what I said. To be more clear, what I meant was that every prospect that passes through league x or y or z has thresholds that other prospects turned NHLers passed before them. So let's say that, regardless of the type of d-men, 95% of NHL top 4 quality d-men that played in the OHL posted at least 0.3 pts/game. I made the number up, I have no idea what it is, but it's just a part of the statistical profile that says there isn't a big red flag. Likely because the guys below the number have subpar puck skills, or slow decision making, or any other number of reasons why you couldn't score in a league where defense is an afterthought for most players.

Two examples mentioned here of guys who didn't light it up in juniors are Carlo and Cernak, but those guys are nothing really like Grushnikov from a physical standpoint. Carlo is 6'6" and has 40 pounds on Grushnikov, Cernak is 6'3" and has 50 pounds on Grushnikov. Grushnikov is 6'2", 180 pounds according to hockey DB. He will obviously put on some weight before making it to the NHL, but he'll never be what those two guys are, and for the record, they both outscored Grushnikov comfortably in their respective D+1 seasons. Cernak had 0.36 pts/game coming from the Slovakian pro league for his D+1, and Carlo managed 0.52 pts/game by the time he was in his D+1, Grushnikov was at 0.21 pts/game.

The reasons why Grushnikov has been rough production wise are more important than the numbers, absolutely, but I think you'd have to admit that it is a big red flag to produce so poorly in your D+1 season, regardless of the reasons and role. Maybe you're right and his defense is so elite at every level that passable skills in other areas will be enough to make him a great d-man, but I would argue that he'd likely be a massive exception with how his season went. Not sure what the prospect analytics guys have to say about a season like Grushnikov's, but I would legimately like to see some comps around his physical attributes and production.

 

[Captain Awesome]

What? D+2 seasons aren't remotely suspect. Bourque and Stranges were just coming off their D+2 seasons. Robertson's monster season was D+2. D+2 in the CHL is the rule not the exception.

To be clear, if Grushnikov puts up a PPG or near PPG D+2 season, I will be thoroughly impressed, if it's just a slight bump, from 0.2 to 0.3 or something, I will continue to think it's a red flag. The D+2 expectation for good top 6 forwards is to basically put up silly video game numbers in a lot of cases, think it's fair to say Borque and Robertson accomplished that, but they had already put up really impressive numbers going as far back as their draft season. I mostly meant that Grushnikov is already going to be one of the older guys in juniors and more physically developed.

 

[BG44]

I was specifically talking about juniors, as in CHL guys when I posted what I said. To be more clear, what I meant was that every prospect that passes through league x or y or z has thresholds that other prospects turned NHLers passed before them. So let's say that, regardless of the type of d-men, 95% of NHL top 4 quality d-men that played in the OHL posted at least 0.3 pts/game. I made the number up, I have no idea what it is, but it's just a part of the statistical profile that says there isn't a big red flag. Likely because the guys below the number have subpar puck skills, or slow decision making, or any other number of reasons why you couldn't score in a league where defense is an afterthought for most players.

Two examples mentioned here of guys who didn't light it up in juniors are Carlo and Cernak, but those guys are nothing really like Grushnikov from a physical standpoint. Carlo is 6'6" and has 40 pounds on Grushnikov, Cernak is 6'3" and has 50 pounds on Grushnikov. Grushnikov is 6'2", 180 pounds according to hockey DB. He will obviously put on some weight before making it to the NHL, but he'll never be what those two guys are, and for the record, they both outscored Grushnikov comfortably in their respective D+1 seasons. Cernak had 0.36 pts/game coming from the Slovakian pro league for his D+1, and Carlo managed 0.52 pts/game by the time he was in his D+1, Grushnikov was at 0.21 pts/game.

The reasons why Grushnikov has been rough production wise are more important than the numbers, absolutely, but I think you'd have to admit that it is a big red flag to produce so poorly in your D+1 season, regardless of the reasons and role. Maybe you're right and his defense is so elite at every level that passable skills in other areas will be enough to make him a great d-man, but I would argue that he'd likely be a massive exception with how his season went. Not sure what the prospect analytics guys have to say about a season like Grushnikov's, but I would legimately like to see some comps around his physical attributes and production.

Instead of a hypothetical made-up number, why don't you find the accurate info?

I imagine you can't though, unfortunately. If we're simply talking about offensive or two-way defenders, that NHL equivalency would be a relevant, reasonable discussion. Randomly throwing out something without evidence to suggest that it's accurate is silly though. I've never seen an analytics guy make the claim you're making. If they did, that's great, but at this point, all you've said is that you think that's what should be true and provided no evidence other than a hypothetical to support it. If there is info out there that junior production relates in any way to defensive ability, I'd genuinely be interested in learning about that.

Limiting the conversation to the CHL does restrict the pool to try and force it to fit the narrative you want. Still, it doesn't eliminate that the reality that a large number of current NHL defensive defenders were low-scoring defensive defenders in lower leagues as well. That's not a hypothetical. You can simply look at any of the careers of the top defensive defenders according to the analytics guy you're fond of. That makes much more sense to suggest that scoring and points have little to do with defending at the NHL level for that particular type of player.

At this point, you're using a hypothetical, unsubstantiated opinion that it's a red flag or abnormal. Grushnikov may not be an NHLer just like any other prospect we're discussing, and that's perfectly fine, but just making up how you're going to evaluate the player seems unreasonable. The NHL equivalency you keep referencing all pretty clearly points to NHL production and points.

 

[BG44]

It also should be pointed out that absolutely no one in analytics would compare production in a lower European league to CHL production. They're not remotely related. That's why the NHL equivalency was created. Cernak's PPG in Slovakia doesn't relate in any way to anyone's CHL production let alone Grushnikov.

To be perfectly honest, this feels like a debate about how you feel about Nill and the Stars and not the actual player so I'd personally like to drop it. I don't really see much difference between this and the odd seemingly misplaced anger about the announced analytics changes the Stars made. If you go searching for negatives, you're going to find them. It doesn't mean fabricating statistics or analytics is a reasonable way to discuss it though. If there is some evidence that NHL equivalency predicts anything other than production, I'm not familiar with it and I'm sorry, but again, I'd appreciate the info.

 

[Kcb12345]

Stankoven is playing right now for Team Canada at the world juniors

Onhockey.tv does have the game

 

[Kcb12345]

Go vote Stankoven if you haven't already he's 1 vote behind Zellweger

HFBoards Top 50 Prospects Ranking #28 (closed)

:HFB: TOP 50 PROSPECTS Criteria is 22 and under, 30 NHL GP or less, no goalies 1. Owen Power - D :sabres 18. Alexander Holtz - RW :devils 35. 2. Matty Beniers - C :seattle 19. Brandt Clarke - D :kings2 36. 3. Jake Sanderson - D :sens 20. John Peterka - LW :sabres 37. 4. Luke...

forums.hfboards.com

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

Instead of a hypothetical made-up number, why don't you find the accurate info?

I imagine you can't though, unfortunately.

One of the fancy stat OGs, Rhys Jessop, did a lot of studies about it...seems like a lot have been scraped off the internet, but here's an old one I found...

Defense, Defensemen, and the Draft

Pittsburgh's Scott Harrington. Future draft bust? One of the things that drives me off-the-wall crazy about Hockey Canada at the junior...

thats-offside.blogspot.com

It's old and maybe out of date but he found that "Based on historical data, a CHL defenseman taken early in the draft with fewer than 0.6 Pts/GP in his draft year, like Scott Harrington or Dylan McIlrath or Colten Teubert, only has about a 1 in 10 chance of even making the NHL as a full-time player."

He also found that many of the guys who did score at less than 0.6 ppg like Weber, Vlasic and Letang subsequently had much more productive draft + 1 years.

 

[Captain Awesome]

It also should be pointed out that absolutely no one in analytics would compare production in a lower European league to CHL production. They're not remotely related. That's why the NHL equivalency was created. Cernak's PPG in Slovakia doesn't relate in any way to anyone's CHL production let alone Grushnikov.

To be perfectly honest, this feels like a debate about how you feel about Nill and the Stars and not the actual player so I'd personally like to drop it. I don't really see much difference between this and the odd seemingly misplaced anger about the announced analytics changes the Stars made. If you go searching for negatives, you're going to find them. It doesn't mean fabricating statistics or analytics is a reasonable way to discuss it though. If there is some evidence that NHL equivalency predicts anything other than production, I'm not familiar with it and I'm sorry, but again, I'd appreciate the info.

Man this is silly, there's no anger here, relax dude. I simply stated that I think Grushnikov's lack of production is worrying and makes me question his viability as an NHL prospect. Cernak's numbers were from his D+1 CHL year, I noted that he came from the Slovak league because he also made the transition from a completely different league to the CHL, but put up better numbers.

It's why I was asking if there are players of similar profiles to Grushnikov that have had successful transition to the NHL, since you had mentioned NHLe and analytics, I thought you might be able to pull some examples, especially since NHLe might give Grushnikov 2 points in the NHL. I just tried to look at Patrick Bacon's because his is free, and can't seem to find Grushnikov in his database because he didn't play his draft year. Regardless, I don't need to conduct a scientific survey to tell me that 12 points in 56 games in his D+1 year in the OHL isn't a plus. I admit, it's not the most well argued thing I've ever put out there, I've been busy and was having a difficult time finding the source I was looking for. Regardless, this is maybe the most lukewarm take I've had all summer.

One of the fancy stat OGs, Rhys Jessop, did a lot of studies about it...seems like a lot have been scraped off the internet, but here's an old one I found...

Defense, Defensemen, and the Draft

Pittsburgh's Scott Harrington. Future draft bust? One of the things that drives me off-the-wall crazy about Hockey Canada at the junior...

thats-offside.blogspot.com

It's old and maybe out of date but he found that "Based on historical data, a CHL defenseman taken early in the draft with fewer than 0.6 Pts/GP in his draft year, like Scott Harrington or Dylan McIlrath or Colten Teubert, only has about a 1 in 10 chance of even making the NHL as a full-time player."

He also found that many of the guys who did score at less than 0.6 ppg like Weber, Vlasic and Letang subsequently had much more productive draft + 1 years.

Thank you, I was having a weirdly difficult time finding this, or something like it.

 

[Satan]

I see both sides of the debate. On one hand, point production in juniors does translate to becoming a full time NHLer and if Grushnikov flatlined I would be disappointed. On the other hand, I've been fooled by many defensive prospects that could score at will during their D-1 and D+1 years but didn't translate to the NHL over the past 10 years... so I'm kind of OK using a mid-2nd round pick on a defender that is elite defensively as a safe floor for becoming a full time NHLer. It's not like Grushnikov has lead feet (he skates well) or has hands of stone (I've seen him transition the puck with confidence) which has limited young defense-first dmen from translating to the NHL.

@Ghost of Kyiv pulling a Rhys special from 10 years ago cuts deep because that Rhys (and many others around this time) was influential on changing how I looked at the sport. But I still don't think you can have a strong opinion on prospects if you haven't watched them- and I think that might be where @BG44 takes issue with a lot of @Captain Awesome's points. It's a shallow analysis of numbers from EliteProspects.com.

 

[David Castillo]

One of the fancy stat OGs, Rhys Jessop, did a lot of studies about it...seems like a lot have been scraped off the internet, but here's an old one I found...

Defense, Defensemen, and the Draft

Pittsburgh's Scott Harrington. Future draft bust? One of the things that drives me off-the-wall crazy about Hockey Canada at the junior...

thats-offside.blogspot.com

It's old and maybe out of date but he found that "Based on historical data, a CHL defenseman taken early in the draft with fewer than 0.6 Pts/GP in his draft year, like Scott Harrington or Dylan McIlrath or Colten Teubert, only has about a 1 in 10 chance of even making the NHL as a full-time player."

He also found that many of the guys who did score at less than 0.6 ppg like Weber, Vlasic and Letang subsequently had much more productive draft + 1 years.

I don't disagree with any of this but things change. Just like there used to be a market inefficiency for small defenders who could transition the puck, I think we're starting to see a little of that cool off. I think it was Patrick Bacon who did a deep dive into why aggressive offensive defensemen tend to fall harder performance wise as they get older versus their less offensive peers. Now I think the market inefficiency may be Ekholm types: smooth skaters with old(er) school games. Granted, Ekholm had productive years in the SEL, but it's hard to imagine Grushnikov not developing into an NHLer when I see a dude with virtually no weaknesses except the offense that he should be leaving to the forwards to begin with. Maybe I just Want to Believe, but I'd happily accept a 6'2 Joel Hanley on the third pair.

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

I don't disagree with any of this but things change. Just like there used to be a market inefficiency for small defenders who could transition the puck, I think we're starting to see a little of that cool off. I think it was Patrick Bacon who did a deep dive into why aggressive offensive defensemen tend to fall harder performance wise as they get older versus their less offensive peers. Now I think the market inefficiency may be Ekholm types: smooth skaters with old(er) school games. Granted, Ekholm had productive years in the SEL, but it's hard to imagine Grushnikov not developing into an NHLer when I see a dude with virtually no weaknesses except the offense that he should be leaving to the forwards to begin with. Maybe I just Want to Believe, but I'd happily accept a 6'2 Joel Hanley on the third pair.

Oh, yeah. I'm not saying what I posted is gospel or anything, it was just a very early and crude study. This is really a 8 year old argument, nothing cutting edge here. I just specifically remembered reading about it 8 years ago and wondered if I could find it. I agree with you, I'm totally cool going after good skating defensive defenders.

I like Grushnikov, he wasn't the best player available at 48 last year but he does a lot of really important things well and I'm glad he's in the Stars pipeline. I think he has a chance.

 

[LT]

At the very least he’s a big step up from the Martenet’s, Sanvido’s, and Peter’s of the drafts.

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

Also like to add, especially for defensive prospects I don't think it's possible to overstate the importance of structure, development and coaching. The amount of young defenseman who have come up under Barry Trotz for example is absolutely absurd.