Prospect Info: 2022-23 Prospect Development Tracker

[Klockis]

This is getting confusing so I'm just gonna translate the most relevant part from the Hockeysverige article regarding this Bichsel situation and then you guys can make you own judgment:

"Next season it's possible there is a continuation in the SHL [for Bichsel]; however, it may not be with Leksand. If the 19 year-old does not take a place in the Dallas Stars defensive core he should, according to sources reported in Sportbladet, have decided to play for Rögle."​

It is possible that with the phrasing of "the Dallas Stars defensive core" the author means the Dallas Stars system as a whole, including the AHL. The author doesn't clarify exactly what he means by that phrasing. It's also possible the author is wrong, so I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

 

[jballa95]

This is getting confusing so I'm just gonna translate the most relevant part from the Hockeysverige article regarding this Bichsel situation and then you guys can make you own judgment:

"Next season it's possible there is a continuation in the SHL [for Bichsel]; however, it may not be with Leksand. If the 19 year-old does not take a place in the Dallas Stars defensive core he should, according to sources reported in Sportbladet, have decided to play for Rögle."​

It is possible that with the phrasing of "the Dallas Stars defensive core" the author means the Dallas Stars system as a whole, including the AHL. The author doesn't clarify exactly what he means by that phrasing. It's also possible the author is wrong, so I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

At this point, I think it's best to wait and see what happens.

 

[Satan]

it's just so hard to take anyone's opinion seriously when they also include "fake news" in their reasoning

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

This is somewhat reminiscent of the Nuke situation, isn't it? I just hope it's not indicative of some attitude problems in wanting NHL or bust, since that didn't work out too well with Nuke for us at least. I know that every situation is different, and am trying not to jump to any conclusions, given his injury, etc.

 

[MrHeiskanen]

Nothing wrong with playing in the AHL or SHL, both are good leagues to continue development.

 

[serp]

This is somewhat reminiscent of the Nuke situation, isn't it? I just hope it's not indicative of some attitude problems in wanting NHL or bust, since that didn't work out too well with Nuke for us at least. I know that every situation is different, and am trying not to jump to any conclusions, given his injury, etc.

I mean not really because sending someone back to the KHL and the SHL is very different . Even pre-war you had no idea if and when the team that had his KHL rights would allow the player to leave . Not to mention Stars are involved in the Röggle assignment deal if it happens. Bichsel missed alot of time last year with injury. It seems unlikely he will be ready for big enough AHL minutes much less NHL minutes. Having a european team as backup plan if the player isn't ready is absolutely fine

 

[Hinterland]

I remember him mentioning the AHL as being an option a few times. But the one I could quickly find is his free agent interview where he states that Bichsel is going home and then coming back for the NHL/AHL camp.

He comments on it in the last 30 seconds of the video:



In my opinion, as long as he gets better ice time in Rögle than he did in Leksands (I know his ice time slowly went up throughout the year), I think it might be the best situation this year. It also potentially saves another D prospect from having to play in the echl.

He signed a contract with the Dallas Stars. Of course he's gonna attend camp. Him being part of the camp doesn't mean anything regarding where he's gonna play. In fact, Nill in the video (I forgot about the exact wording already) says something along the lines of "then we'll see where he's gonna go".

I never heard Nill say Bichsel is gonna play for Texas. From what I understand, these fake news were (once again) spread by the athletic but correct me if I'm wrong.

This is somewhat reminiscent of the Nuke situation, isn't it? I just hope it's not indicative of some attitude problems in wanting NHL or bust, since that didn't work out too well with Nuke for us at least. I know that every situation is different, and am trying not to jump to any conclusions, given his injury, etc.

If you mean that he's not gonna start a season in NA to play AHL then yes. From what I understand he's not interested in doing that but the same goes for almost any European top prospect and I don't think it has anything to do with an attitude problem. The AHL is just not a very attractive/appealing league, particularly for Europeans.

I don't think Bichsel would be against joining Texas once Rögle's season is over though and I don't see him fleeing for Europe right away either should he, in a year or two, get sent down after making the NHL team out of camp.

 

[serp]

Idk about never playing a full AHL season with Bichsel. He's not that type of top prospect. He's much more of a longterm high upside guy.

 

[Hinterland]

Idk about never playing a full AHL season with Bichsel. He's not that type of top prospect. He's much more of a longterm high upside guy.

For other prospects, even certain top prospects, the AHL does make sense. For Bichsel it does not and I already explained you why. Bichsel excels when there's no room. AHL would simply be too easy for him. Or at the very least, he couldn't work on his weaknesses the way he can in Europe. Mason McTavish was labled a bad skater. After his return from Switzerland that was no longer the case even though he only played SL. Why? Because the wider ice forces you to work on acceleration and mobility. For bad skaters, the lower tier NA leagues aren't a great preparation for the NHL because you can get away with a lot. The ice is just as small as in the NHL but your opponents are nowhere near as fast and mobile. In Europe you need to be really really good if you wanna get away with bad skating. If y

Lian Bichsel isn't a bad skater. He's a good skater for the big guy he is. His top speed is amazing. The rest will always be his biggest weakness and Europe is a better place to keep him honest and working on his skating. If you're a defender the size of Bichsel, the wider ice just makes your life so much harder because the extra ice allows the forwards, who're usually faster and more mobile than you, to just skate past you left and right.

 

[LT]

If the AHL would be too easy for him, why isn't he already in the NHL?

Let's look at some of the paths to the NHL for our defense and some comparables to Bichsel. For reference, he went 18th overall in 2022.

tl;dr : for a defensive prospect to look like an NHL regular by his D+3 year, it requires either an exceptional prospect or a miserable NHL defense ahead of them. Bichsel is not particularly exceptional IMO, and Dallas is very deep at defense. Expecting anything at the NHL level from Bichsel within the next two years is most likely going to lead to disappointment. Patience is essential.



Miro Heiskanen (2017, 3rd Overall)
Let's start on the high end. D+1 in Finland, was the best D there by a considerable margin. Next year he was in the NHL.

Esa Lindell (2012, 74th Overall)
D+1, D+2, D+3 all in Europe. He came over to the AHL at the end of his D+3 season. He spent D+4 in the AHL with a short stint in the NHL at the end of the season. Hos D+5 season was his first full NHL campaign, where he's been since.

Thomas Harley (2019, 18th Overall)
D+1 in the OHL. D+2 in the AHL. D+3 he split time between the AHL and NHL, D+4 he was back primarily in the AHL. D+5 will be his first season as an NHL regular.

Nils Lundkvist (2018, 28th Overall)
D+1, D+2, D+3 all in Europe. D+4 was split between the AHL and NHL, D+5 he was an NHL regular.

Jamie Oleksiak (2011, 14th Overall)
D+1 in the OHL. D+2 was mostly in the AHL, D+3 he split time between the AHL and NHL. It wasn't really until his D+7 (!!!) season that he finally seemed to settle into the NHL.

Patrik Nemeth (2010, 41st Overall)
D+1 and D+2 in Europe. D+3 in the AHL, D+4 also AHL with a bit of NHL time. He was back and forth between the two leagues until his D+7 year as well.

Jonas Brodin (2011, 10th Overall)
D+1 and D+2 in Europe. He then made the jump immediately to the NHL, albeit on a rather weak Minnesota defense.

Oscar Klefbom (2011, 19th Overall)
D+1 and D+2 in Europe. D+3 in the AHL, D+4 mostly NHL time.

Olli Maatta (2012, 22nd Overall)
D+1 in the OHL, D+2 he jumped to the NHL immediately and stuck. Again though, a very shallow defense on Pittsburgh.

Nikita Zadorov (2013, 16th Overall)
D+1 in the OHL, D+2 he jumped to the NHL immediately and stuck. Again though, a very shallow defense on Buffalo.

Julius Honka (2014, 14th Overall)
D+1 and D+2 in the AHL. We all know the rest from here.

Juuso Valimaki (2017, 16th Overall)
D+1 in the WHL, D+2 he split time between the NHL and AHL before temporarily returning to Finland. It wasn't until his D+6 season that he looked like an NHL regular.

Shakir Mukhamadullin (2020, 20th Overall)
D+1, D+2, D+3 all in Europe. He came over to the AHL at the end of his D+3 season. He'll start his D+4 in the AHL. He seems to be progressing well.

 

[Hinterland]

If the AHL would be too easy for him, why isn't he already in the NHL?

Let's look at some of the paths to the NHL for our defense and some comparables to Bichsel. For reference, he went 18th overall in 2022.

tl;dr : for a defensive prospect to look like an NHL regular by his D+3 year, it requires either an exceptional prospect or a miserable NHL defense ahead of them. Bichsel is not particularly exceptional IMO, and Dallas is very deep at defense. Expecting anything at the NHL level from Bichsel within the next two years is most likely going to lead to disappointment. Patience is essential.



Miro Heiskanen (2017, 3rd Overall)
Let's start on the high end. D+1 in Finland, was the best D there by a considerable margin. Next year he was in the NHL.

Esa Lindell (2012, 74th Overall)
D+1, D+2, D+3 all in Europe. He came over to the AHL at the end of his D+3 season. He spent D+4 in the AHL with a short stint in the NHL at the end of the season. Hos D+5 season was his first full NHL campaign, where he's been since.

Thomas Harley (2019, 18th Overall)
D+1 in the OHL. D+2 in the AHL. D+3 he split time between the AHL and NHL, D+4 he was back primarily in the AHL. D+5 will be his first season as an NHL regular.

Nils Lundkvist (2018, 28th Overall)
D+1, D+2, D+3 all in Europe. D+4 was split between the AHL and NHL, D+5 he was an NHL regular.

Jamie Oleksiak (2011, 14th Overall)
D+1 in the OHL. D+2 was mostly in the AHL, D+3 he split time between the AHL and NHL. It wasn't really until his D+7 (!!!) season that he finally seemed to settle into the NHL.

Patrik Nemeth (2010, 41st Overall)
D+1 and D+2 in Europe. D+3 in the AHL, D+4 also AHL with a bit of NHL time. He was back and forth between the two leagues until his D+7 year as well.

Jonas Brodin (2011, 10th Overall)
D+1 and D+2 in Europe. He then made the jump immediately to the NHL, albeit on a rather weak Minnesota defense.

Oscar Klefbom (2011, 19th Overall)
D+1 and D+2 in Europe. D+3 in the AHL, D+4 mostly NHL time.

Olli Maatta (2012, 22nd Overall)
D+1 in the OHL, D+2 he jumped to the NHL immediately and stuck. Again though, a very shallow defense on Pittsburgh.

Nikita Zadorov (2013, 16th Overall)
D+1 in the OHL, D+2 he jumped to the NHL immediately and stuck. Again though, a very shallow defense on Buffalo.

Julius Honka (2014, 14th Overall)
D+1 and D+2 in the AHL. We all know the rest from here.

Juuso Valimaki (2017, 16th Overall)
D+1 in the WHL, D+2 he split time between the NHL and AHL before temporarily returning to Finland. It wasn't until his D+6 season that he looked like an NHL regular.

Shakir Mukhamadullin (2020, 20th Overall)
D+1, D+2, D+3 all in Europe. He came over to the AHL at the end of his D+3 season. He'll start his D+4 in the AHL. He seems to be progressing well.

Countless players dominated the AHL and still weren't ready for the NHL. It happens to multiple players every season. Dominating the AHL is no guarantee for NHL success, let alone immediate success. NHL is a completely different cup of tea.

As for the rest I think Bichsel is gonna be NHL ready next year if his season goes according to plan. His injury history is a concern though. Especially the concussions. We'll have to see how the season goes.