Prospect Info: 2022-23 Prospect Development Tracker

[LT]

I always think about Klinbgerg's failed experiment in Finland. I think he returned home mid-season because he was struggling with being away from home. I don't blame the guy at all, but it did give me a better perspective on the guys that are capable of handling that separation.

Some elite hockey players seem to be built differently and handle this better than I think most people. Faksa always comes to mind too for his fairly insane story about moving away from home at such a young age.

Klingberg circling back to Dallas at least once sort of suggests the same thing as his homesickness. I don't know if this is particular to youth athletes, though.

 

[Kcb12345]

46 highlights for Bourque. Threw in a few non-scoring plays cause of his short regular season

Get ready to hear a lottt of French

 

[Captain Awesome]

46 highlights for Bourque. Threw in a few non-scoring plays cause of his short regular season

Get ready to hear a lottt of French

Huh, I've watched a few Q games, never heard any French though.

 

[Triple Ex El]

Bored and have a ton of free time...kinda wanna make a Johnston or Stankoven highlights video...I might not sure tho it's so much work

If I did, would yall be more interested in like a best points type of video, or an all goals type of video? Like I said tho no promises, it's a lot of work and I might not have the attention span for that while taking care of a puppy

Wait...what kind of puppy?

 

[Kcb12345]

Wait...what kind of puppy?

Corgi

Its my girlfriends puppy she got like a year ago but shes (the puppy is) a handful so still tough to get things done lol.

 

[Kcb12345]

So, Stranges is done but idk if I'll upload tonight or tomorrow.

Who should I do next?

Players I can probably do/am willing to do:

Kyrou, Martino, Arcuri, Roulette..maybe forgetting someone not sure. Open to any CHL guys for sure. Martino is a bit more of a chore but not many games and not many points so it wouldn't be hard as long as I can find all the highlights...which actually might be difficult to do cause I can only find some in awful quality on youtube

 

[Morry83]

I was gonna say Martino because I’ve seen very little of him, but can definitely see how that’d be a bit more challenging. Kyrou would be great as well.

This is awesome though, really appreciate you doing it

 

[Kcb12345]

I was gonna say Martino because I’ve seen very little of him, but can definitely see how that’d be a bit more challenging. Kyrou would be great as well.

This is awesome though, really appreciate you doing it

You're too late unfortunately...


I just finished Martino's video right now...

Gonna be a much shorter video, but he definitely has some highlights. Really intriguing player. I'm just hoping ESPN/YouTube don't take the video down cause some of the clips are from YouTube game highlights. Had to do some digging but it wasn't hard and there wasn't a whole lot like I said. I've got 17 clips for him

So tomorrow I'll upload Stranges & Martino. Then probably Kyrou next cause he's one I'm really interested in as well

 

[starsfan86]

You're too late unfortunately...


I just finished Martino's video right now...

Gonna be a much shorter video, but he definitely has some highlights. Really intriguing player. I'm just hoping ESPN/YouTube don't take the video down cause some of the clips are from YouTube game highlights. Had to do some digging but it wasn't hard and there wasn't a whole lot like I said. I've got 17 clips for him

So tomorrow I'll upload Stranges & Martino. Then probably Kyrou next cause he's one I'm really interested in as well

I would love to see Kyrou highlights since there’s not many on YouTube

 

[Kcb12345]

37 clips for Kyrou. He's a lot of fun to watch in the O zone for sure, pretty flashy and has a really great shot. Can dance the line like Klingberg

But, his straight line skating for sure needs work and his defending is really rough. I could've made an entire video of just him playing poorly in the D zone or getting beat probably lol, and that's scoring plays only for the most part which makes things look even worse. He should definitely improve there over time though, but like Klingberg if he makes the NHL it won't be for his defending that's for sure

 

[Captain Awesome]

So, Stranges is done but idk if I'll upload tonight or tomorrow.

Who should I do next?

Players I can probably do/am willing to do:

Kyrou, Martino, Arcuri, Roulette..maybe forgetting someone not sure. Open to any CHL guys for sure. Martino is a bit more of a chore but not many games and not many points so it wouldn't be hard as long as I can find all the highlights...which actually might be difficult to do cause I can only find some in awful quality on youtube

I just want to know how short a Grushnikov highlight package would be.

 

[Kcb12345]

"Next up" list:

Stranges (done)
Martino (done)
Kyrou (done)
Arcuri
Roulette
Gavin White (requested by his parents to me on twitter I think lol - but that's a good one to do). Might do him before Roulette

 

[BG44]

None of this was unexpected, but it's official at least. The Leksand GM confirmed that Dallas wants Bichsel in the SHL, and they're not bringing him over for Traverse City or Dallas camp.

It's great, great, for us but also for Lian that he gets involved from the start and integrates into our team. That's what Dallas wants, for him to play in the SHL. They want to give him the best conditions and then it is not optimal to go to the rookie camp later and then we are starting with the same spin again,

Beskedet: Lian Bichsel stannar i Leksand

"De är rätt tydliga med att han ska spela hos oss i vinter"

hockeysverige.se

Dallas typically does not bring European players over that will ultimately return to Europe for the season. They don't attend Traverse or camp until they're officially coming to North America. The rare exception was Janmark who ultimately won a NHL job despite the fact the plan was for him to return to Europe.

 

[Klockis]

Just gonna start off this post by saying that I don't watch prospects. However, some people here seem to regard Grushnikov somewhat highly and just by stat watching I have a hard time understanding why. If he was talanted enough to be a future NHL:er surely he would score more than he does in juniors just by being better than everyone else? Is there any good comparable players who had underwheling offensive numbers in juniors that made it to the NHL as a non-tweener?

For example: Hakanpää didn't really have impressive numbers either but it took a long time before he made it to the NHL. Grushnikov is supposed to be much closer at a similar age.

Just a thought I had after looking up some stats of our prospects.

 

[Satan]

Just gonna start off this post by saying that I don't watch prospects. However, some people here seem to regard Grushnikov somewhat highly and just by stat watching I have a hard time understanding why. If he was talanted enough to be a future NHL:er surely he would score more than he does in juniors just by being better than everyone else? Is there any good comparable players who had underwheling offensive numbers in juniors that made it to the NHL as a non-tweener?

For example: Hakanpää didn't really have impressive numbers either but it took a long time before he made it to the NHL. Grushnikov is supposed to be much closer at a similar age.

Just a thought I had after looking up some stats of our prospects.

off the top of my head: erik cernak, brandon carlo

 

[Klockis]

off the top of my head: erik cernak, brandon carlo

Thanks for the shouts! I know so little about junior hockey so it's somewhat comforting knowing that it isn't too unusual. Hopefully we translates his OHL defensive play to the big stage and we got a solid player on our hands

 

[BG44]

 

[BG44]

off the top of my head: erik cernak, brandon carlo

I never looked at his stats before, but Cernak's D+1 year and Grushnikov's are virtually identical in production. Carlo was a small bit higher in production. I also didn't realize like Grushnikov, they were both 2nd round picks (top half).

 

[Captain Awesome]

off the top of my head: erik cernak, brandon carlo

It seems to me that guys like this are a big exception, maybe there are a ton more notable top 4 level d-men who didn't produce in juniors and I just didn't notice, but I've seen a few places that have more or less correlated points in juniors and NHL-level defensemen pretty well. I think not scoring in juniors is a big red flag that you don't have the skills to even play as a defensive d-man in the NHL. Maybe both those guys developed dramatically at a later date, but I always regarded someone like Carlo as a unicorn.

I think at the end of the day, it's possible to teach a defenseman to play more responsible defense, but players who couldn't produce offense at lower levels will not develop that skill 99% of the time later on. Obviously there's a cap to how good someone can get defensively, but it's clearly the side of the ice that can be taught later, with offense you either have it or you don't. It's something that can be developed, but not in the way defensive play can.

I'll be skeptical about Grushnikov until the second he hits NHL ice and looks like he belongs, and if he tops out as a #6 type d-man who isn't doing much in transition or offensively, I'll consider the pick to have been a waste. At the end of the day it was another gamble on a guy who could barely get scouted in a weird year, so maybe not a big deal, but it's not a good look to put up such crappy numbers on the best team in the OHL, even if just by coincidence of getting some secondary assists.

 

[Satan]

It seems to me that guys like this are a big exception, maybe there are a ton more notable top 4 level d-men who didn't produce in juniors and I just didn't notice, but I've seen a few places that have more or less correlated points in juniors and NHL-level defensemen pretty well. I think not scoring in juniors is a big red flag that you don't have the skills to even play as a defensive d-man in the NHL. Maybe both those guys developed dramatically at a later date, but I always regarded someone like Carlo as a unicorn.

I think at the end of the day, it's possible to teach a defenseman to play more responsible defense, but players who couldn't produce offense at lower levels will not develop that skill 99% of the time later on. Obviously there's a cap to how good someone can get defensively, but it's clearly the side of the ice that can be taught later, with offense you either have it or you don't. It's something that can be developed, but not in the way defensive play can.

I'll be skeptical about Grushnikov until the second he hits NHL ice and looks like he belongs, and if he tops out as a #6 type d-man who isn't doing much in transition or offensively, I'll consider the pick to have been a waste. At the end of the day it was another gamble on a guy who could barely get scouted in a weird year, so maybe not a big deal, but it's not a good look to put up such crappy numbers on the best team in the OHL, even if just by coincidence of getting some secondary assists.

I don't think you can box score watch and then have a strong opinion on a prospect like this. I think you need to break down the nuances to Grushnikov's season. We're talking about his first year on North American ice on one of Canada's best junior hockey teams. Grushnikov defends at a high level- and he proved it this year in his 18 year old season. It was a good year to stay in his lane and learn the ropes in NA. These were his teammates that he had to battle for icetime and opportunity:

Staois (20, returning Bulldog)
Kamerrer (20, returning Bulldog)
White (19, returning Bulldog)
Xhekaj (21, mid-season trade)

I think I'd be concerned if he didn't develop offensively this upcoming season. He'll be thrust into larger roles and have a rapport with the coaching staff.

 

[BG44]

When you look at the analytics guys lists for top defensive defenders, fairly consistently, unless it's a high-end offensive player or two-way player that just drives play so much that they provide good defense with great offense (Makar, McAvoy), none of the guys on that list were big scorers at 18 to 22 in lower leagues. Most of them I noticed just happened to go the NCAA route so for whatever reason that league seems to be much more represented than the CHL.

I have to agree with Satan that scoreboard-watching a defensive defenseman is questionable at best, and saying junior offensive production corresponds in some way to NHL success in a defensive role is also not something I think most of those analytics guys would agree with. I think they'd say those offensive projections simply predict offensive ability in the NHL and in no way predict what a defensive-leaning player is going to do at that level.

The one thing I don't agree with Satan about though is I'm not worried if Grushnikov doesn't break out offensively. None of the pure defensive defenders that the analytics guy love at the NHL level had breakout offensive years in the CHL, NCAA, or AHL. They remained mostly low-scoring defensive defenders as they progressed to the NHL. The only thing that matters is Grushnikov continues to be special defensively at the level he's playing which he was last year as Hamilton fell a game short of the Memorial Cup.

 

[Satan]

The one thing I don't agree with Satan about though is I'm not worried if Grushnikov doesn't break out offensively. None of the pure defensive defenders that the analytics guy love at the NHL level had breakout offensive years in the CHL, NCAA, or AHL. They remained mostly low-scoring defensive defenders as they progressed to the NHL. The only thing that matters is Grushnikov continues to be special defensively at the level he's playing which he was last year as Hamilton fell a game short of the Memorial Cup.

I quickly wrote my post up but I'm not going to lose my mind if Grushnikov doesn't hit 20 points next year but I kind of expect that side of his game to grow as he ages in the OHL. It should naturally happen with increased icetime anyway.

 

[BG44]

I quickly wrote my post up but I'm not going to lose my mind if Grushnikov doesn't hit 20 points next year but I kind of expect that side of his game to grow as he ages in the OHL. It should naturally happen with increased icetime anyway.

That makes sense, but I'd also say unless he gets PP time, his role can't increase all that significantly. He was on the top PK and playing big minutes in a shutdown role. I think he's basically going to be playing the same minutes because his role was already significant.

Their names are escaping me right now, but they had two young guys that played low minutes on the 3rd pair that I believe are more offensive defenders that will probably get that PP time. There was a 3rd one that I believe is draft eligible this year that only played a handful of games that is considered a pretty good offensive defender as well.

I actually think White stands to gain the most this season. He'll probably be the top PP option now rather than on the 2nd unit behind Staios and Xhekaj. I'm curious as to how they'll handle Grushnikov's partner though. When they wanted a shutdown pair, he played mostly at RD with Xhekaj, but most of the game he played with White. He basically rotated in-game from RD to LD depending on the situation. Staios and White occasionally played together in offensive sitatuions as well so I could see White getting shifts with their younger offensive guys at times, but my gut says Grushnikov and White probably play mostly together this year as the top pair.

They could be fairly young on D though after rolling with 3 overagers last year so maybe they want to split White and Grushnikov up to spread the more established players out.

 

[WhoahNow]

Having another player like Lindell (limited offence, good at defence) isn't a bad thing if that's how Grush turns out, the only problem with Lindell is just he is overpaid in a flat cap. Hopefully he will turn out to be a better skater and puck mover, but I have 0 concerns over Grush right now.

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

I think it's very fair to say Grushnikov's lack of production is a red flag, but you're going to get red flags picking in the second round. Kyrou produces, but he's small and a mediocre skater, that's also a major red flag. Historically, 11% of 2nd round picks are going to be a top 4 D or top 6 F. So you're looking for the exception to the rule. Dallas has done incredible with their 2nd rounders, getting guys like Hintz and Robertson (hopefully Stankoven) is not normal.

Where I disagree with the Grushnikov discourse is the "low ceiling, high floor" thing. Erik Cernak is an awesome player, if he becomes that, that's a home run in the 2nd round. Cernak would be a really high ceiling. Likewise, he's certainly not a lock to even play a single minute of NHL icetime. The type of defenseman is easy to project, the range of outcomes is still pretty wide.



Edit: I'm aware Grushnikov is a better skater, but less physical than Cernak was at the time, so not a perfect comparison aside from the statistical profile.