Rumor: 2021-22 Trade Rumors and FA Part V: To Giroux or not to Giroux

[JLo217]

We are getting there.

 

[Hasbro]

I guess by the tone of this thread lately, we're up to 3-4-5 certainties in life:
1. Death
2. Taxes
3. Makar leaving in 2027 if he's not traded 1st.
4. Rants leaving in 2025
5. Nate retiring to focus on his Fortnite career.

0. Avalanche need a power forward.

 

[Gruyeriev]

What if this new top line works out..?
Landy-Rantanen-Nuke

That is an incredibly solid line makes you wonder what we could feasibly run as our other lines as when MacK comes back IF they decide to keep that line together.

Landy-Rantanen-Nuke
Trade-Mack-Burakovsky
Newhook-Kadri-LOC
Helm-Jost-NAK

Probably unlikely that those lines ever develop, but damn if Rantanen can play as a top 6 center we have some great problems moving forward.

I can’t help but read between the lines

 

[Richard88]

There's a thread on the main board proposing that Chicago move Murphy. I doubt he's available, but if he is then Sakic should look into that as he'd complete our D group really nicely as Girard's D partner at an affordable $4.4m caphit for 4 years after this year at $3.85m. Cap-wise you simply do Compher ($3.5m) plus picks/prospects to get it done, then roll into the playoffs with:

Toews -- Makar
Girard -- Murphy
Murray/JJ - EJ

That allows us to give Byram all the time he needs to return, and if/when he returns you simply decide which one of Girard or Byram to keep and move the other to rebuild the 2nd line or goaltending.

 

[Peter Peckerwood]

This board, man

All I said was that IF Sakic burns ALL our assets and doesn't win a cup Mackinnon 'might' 'think' about signing elsewhere. Sakic isn't going to incompetently bleed the entire prospect pool dry obviously so there's nothing to worry about. Don't let that get in the way of all these panicky responses though, I'll just leave the pizza here for ya'll and be back later when things have calmed down on the Mackinnon-is-leaving-and-Makar-is-going-to-Calgary-doomsdayp parade.

 

[Richard88]

Who would you guys rather keep if you were forced to lose one this off-season, Mackinnon or Makar?















Now fight!

 

[Perratrooper]

Who would you guys rather keep if you were forced to lose one this off-season, Mackinnon or Makar?















Now fight!

I would rather keep Makar, he’s younger and signed long term. Plus we have Rantanen as our new 1C

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

0. Avalanche need a power forward.

Before time itself. Avs need a new Zadorov.

 

[Alienblood]

There's a thread on the main board proposing that Chicago move Murphy. I doubt he's available, but if he is then Sakic should look into that as he'd complete our D group really nicely as Girard's D partner at an affordable $4.4m caphit for 4 years after this year at $3.85m. Cap-wise you simply do Compher ($3.5m) plus picks/prospects to get it done, then roll into the playoffs with:

Toews -- Makar
Girard -- Murphy
Murray/JJ - EJ

That allows us to give Byram all the time he needs to return, and if/when he returns you simply decide which one of Girard or Byram to keep and move the other to rebuild the 2nd line or goaltending.

Don't steal my thunder

 

[Richard88]

Don't steal my thunder

Was thinking a bit more about that idea to see how it would look going forward.

First off, it would probably require an EJ buyout or the D would be really expensive. A buyout would essentially mean that you have Murphy at a $6.4m caphit for 2022-2024:

Toews ($4.1m) -- Makar ($9m)
Girard ($5m) ---- Murphy ($6.4m incl. $2m EJ buyout)
Byram (ELC) ------- Barron/Helleson (ELC) or EJ resigned @ league min.)

That would leave over $30m in capspace this off-season to fill out the lineup something like this:

- Starting goalie (~$5m)
- Backup (~$2m)
- 2LW (Nichuskin ~$4.5m)
- 2RW (~$5m)
... The rest is $13.5m for:
- 4 places in the bottom 6 (i.e. Jost + LOC + 4 others),
- a 13F
- a 7D.

I think that's doable considering we can sign Maltsev and NAK cheap, and also give shots to Kaut/Ranta/Olausson/Bowers on ELC's. You can also use one of Barron/Helleson on a forward trade either at the deadline or in the off-season.

That said, there would be an obvious problem in 2023 when Mackinnon/Byram/Newhook need raises. The key then is to ensure that one of the two top 6 forwards is off the books in 2023 to create some cash for Mackinnon, and you'd likely also need to decide which one of Byram or Girard to keep beyond 2023. Some tough decisions for sure, but doable.

Again, I doubt Chicago are seriously making him available given that they only recently signed a 4 year extension that hasn't even started yet; and I also doubt that Sakic wants to buyout EJ. But if I'm wrong and he is available then it's absolutely worth looking at for Sakic.

 

[Alienblood]

Was thinking a bit more about that idea to see how it would look going forward.

First off, it would probably require an EJ buyout or the D would be really expensive. A buyout would essentially mean that you have Murphy at a $6.4m caphit for 2022-2024:

Toews ($4.1m) -- Makar ($9m)
Girard ($5m) ---- Murphy ($6.4m incl. $2m EJ buyout)
Byram (ELC) ------- Barron/Helleson (ELC) or EJ resigned @ league min.)

That would leave over $30m in capspace this off-season to fill out the lineup something like this:

- Starting goalie (~$5m)
- Backup (~$2m)
- 2LW (Nichuskin ~$4.5m)
- 2RW (~$5m)
... The rest is $13.5m for:
- 4 places in the bottom 6 (i.e. Jost + LOC + 4 others),
- a 13F
- a 7D.

I think that's doable considering we can sign Maltsev and NAK cheap, and also give shots to Kaut/Ranta/Olausson/Bowers on ELC's. You can also use one of Barron/Helleson on a forward trade either at the deadline or in the off-season.

That said, there would be an obvious problem in 2023 when Mackinnon/Byram/Newhook need raises. The key then is to ensure that one of the two top 6 forwards is off the books in 2023 to create some cash for Mackinnon, and you'd likely also need to decide which one of Byram or Girard to keep beyond 2023. Some tough decisions for sure, but doable.

Again, I doubt Chicago are seriously making him available given that they only recently signed a 4 year extension that hasn't even started yet; and I also doubt that Sakic wants to buyout EJ. But if I'm wrong and he is available then it's absolutely worth looking at for Sakic.

Great work once again. His salary seems a bit much I guess. But if we could swing it for this playoff and figure it out later but probably bot such a good idea.

I think he'd be a good partner for G though and give us some more muscle and size for Vegas

 

[nammerus]

Was thinking a bit more about that idea to see how it would look going forward.

First off, it would probably require an EJ buyout or the D would be really expensive. A buyout would essentially mean that you have Murphy at a $6.4m caphit for 2022-2024:

Toews ($4.1m) -- Makar ($9m)
Girard ($5m) ---- Murphy ($6.4m incl. $2m EJ buyout)
Byram (ELC) ------- Barron/Helleson (ELC) or EJ resigned @ league min.)

That would leave over $30m in capspace this off-season to fill out the lineup something like this:

- Starting goalie (~$5m)
- Backup (~$2m)
- 2LW (Nichuskin ~$4.5m)
- 2RW (~$5m)
... The rest is $13.5m for:
- 4 places in the bottom 6 (i.e. Jost + LOC + 4 others),
- a 13F
- a 7D.

I think that's doable considering we can sign Maltsev and NAK cheap, and also give shots to Kaut/Ranta/Olausson/Bowers on ELC's. You can also use one of Barron/Helleson on a forward trade either at the deadline or in the off-season.

That said, there would be an obvious problem in 2023 when Mackinnon/Byram/Newhook need raises. The key then is to ensure that one of the two top 6 forwards is off the books in 2023 to create some cash for Mackinnon, and you'd likely also need to decide which one of Byram or Girard to keep beyond 2023. Some tough decisions for sure, but doable.

Again, I doubt Chicago are seriously making him available given that they only recently signed a 4 year extension that hasn't even started yet; and I also doubt that Sakic wants to buyout EJ. But if I'm wrong and he is available then it's absolutely worth looking at for Sakic.

EJ should have been bought out ages ago. What an awful contract.

 

[Richard88]

Great work once again. His salary seems a bit much I guess. But if we could swing it for this playoff and figure it out later but probably bot such a good idea.

I think he'd be a good partner for G though and give us some more muscle and size for Vegas

The D would be stacked and looking really solid. Then assuming some reasonable contracts for Nichuskin ($4.5m), Kuemper ($5.5m), and Francouz ($2m) we'd have about $10m to play with to upgrade 2RW and the 3rd line depending on which prospect(s) (if any) take roster spots, as per the 2022/23 roster below.

I like the idea of building from the back end, as it's logically easier to be competitive by rounding out your forward group with ELC's in front of an elite defense, than the other way around.

 

[MacKaRant]

Every player will leave this offseason and the team will have to fold.

After reading this comment, I needed to double-check whether I was on HFAvs or HFYotes.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I don’t mind Nuke in the top 6 in the playoffs for spot duty. But he’s proven during his time here that he isn’t up to snuff in that role in the playoffs. 6pts in 25 games is a worse rate than Jost in the playoffs. Now he does a ton of stuff away from the puck that this team sorely needs, but if your in the top 6 you have to produce points at a somewhat reliable rate.

Yeah but don't forget that Nuke has improved quite a bit this season offensively. Those stats are from the old offensive Nuke...not this year's Nuke.

 

[MacKaRant]

The D would be stacked and looking really solid. Then assuming some reasonable contracts for Nichuskin ($4.5m), Kuemper ($5.5m), and Francouz ($2m) we'd have about $10m to play with to upgrade 2RW and the 3rd line depending on which prospect(s) (if any) take roster spots, as per the 2022/23 roster below.

I like the idea of building from the back end, as it's logically easier to be competitive by rounding out your forward group with ELC's in front of an elite defense, than the other way around.

View attachment 505898

Ooof, that's quite the inexperienced forward group short on proven NHL talent. We'd need to make the most of the $10 million in cap room (more like $13 or $14 million, because the additional cap hit = player's contact - ELC contract value that's being replaced).

 

[Alienblood]

The D would be stacked and looking really solid. Then assuming some reasonable contracts for Nichuskin ($4.5m), Kuemper ($5.5m), and Francouz ($2m) we'd have about $10m to play with to upgrade 2RW and the 3rd line depending on which prospect(s) (if any) take roster spots, as per the 2022/23 roster below.

I like the idea of building from the back end, as it's logically easier to be competitive by rounding out your forward group with ELC's in front of an elite defense, than the other way around.

View attachment 505898

Yes agreed, thanks for the breakdown , That's a nice looking D o

 

[Richard88]

Ooof, that's quite the inexperienced forward group short on proven NHL talent. We'd need to make the most of the $10 million in cap room (more like $13 or $14 million, because the additional cap hit = player's contact - ELC contract value that's being replaced).

Yeah obviously that wouldn't be our roster next season, but I placed Ranta, Kaut, Olausson there as placeholders. It shouldn't be too hard to find suitable upgrades with $10m to spare. The only issue there would be term, as without EJ's $6m serving as a placeholder for Mackinnon's raise we'd need to keep some flexibility for 2023.

 

[willy702]

After reading this comment, I needed to double-check whether I was on HFAvs or HFYotes.

I do that often during game threads when I hear Nate is trash, Girard gets abused all the time and Kuemper forgot how to stop pucks. But then I check the score and see the Avs are winning and just have to wonder what gives.

 

[Gruyeriev]

There's a thread on the main board proposing that Chicago move Murphy. I doubt he's available, but if he is then Sakic should look into that as he'd complete our D group really nicely as Girard's D partner at an affordable $4.4m caphit for 4 years after this year at $3.85m. Cap-wise you simply do Compher ($3.5m) plus picks/prospects to get it done, then roll into the playoffs with:

Toews -- Makar
Girard -- Murphy
Murray/JJ - EJ

That allows us to give Byram all the time he needs to return, and if/when he returns you simply decide which one of Girard or Byram to keep and move the other to rebuild the 2nd line or goaltending.

I doubt Chicago moves him though.

I am surprised that a bunch of hawks fans in that thread seem to think he could be moved. Seems stupid to me but with Toews, Kane and Jones money maybe they need to.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Yeah but don't forget that Nuke has improved quite a bit this season offensively. Those stats are from the old offensive Nuke...not this year's Nuke.

This years Nuke is shooting at a pretty unsustainable clip. He’s already down to 16% from the 19.8% it was not long ago. He’s been better offensively this year, but a big part of that is playing with Kadri and whatever the hell is happening with him. I love Nuke and he’s desperately needed on this team, but he’s going to have to prove he can put the puck in the net in the playoffs above a 4th line level.

 

[Richard88]

This years Nuke is shooting at a pretty unsustainable clip. He’s already down to 16% from the 19.8% it was not long ago. He’s been better offensively this year, but a big part of that is playing with Kadri and whatever the hell is happening with him. I love Nuke and he’s desperately needed on this team, but he’s going to have to prove he can put the puck in the net in the playoffs above a 4th line level.

The counter argument to that is that Nichuskin is shooting a lot more this season than previous years (and has improved each year in Colorado), so even if the shot% is a bit inflated he'd still be producing at a good rate even if his shot% normalized. His shots/60 rate at 5v5 is 2nd only to Mackinnon among Avs forwards this year.

 

[Avsboy]

A Nichushkin shot is not the same as a Mackinnon shot. He is not a sniper. But he must be kept for his probably league best forechecking ability (what metric is that?), durability, size, defensive play, as well as some of his scoring. An offer of $4.5 million AAV is not enough to retain him during his prime.

 

[The Abusement Park]

The counter argument to that is that Nichuskin is shooting a lot more this season than previous years (and has improved each year in Colorado), so even if the shot% is a bit inflated he'd still be producing at a good rate even if his shot% normalized. His shots/60 rate at 5v5 is 2nd only to Mackinnon among Avs forwards this year.

View attachment 505926



View attachment 505928

I guess we’ll see. I just don’t think all the factors in playing with Kadri, contract year, shooting % etc add up to him magically becoming a 60+ point guy. I would love that so much. But there’s just no track record in that being the case. He’s going to deservedly get paid for being one of the best defensive players in the NHL and rightfully so but his production is a serious wildcard.

 

[forsbergavs32]

Can’t say it enough, pay the man. Even if this year ends up being his best year points-wise, he still brings so much to this team that can’t be easily replaced.