Value of: (1 yr rental) Matthews to COL BOS CAR SEA VGK

[lanceuppercut75]

I’m 90% confident he’s re-sign there. Either way I don’t think that proposal disrupts the core of their current team and it’s actually cap positive for LAK. I’d like to hear a LAK fans perspective.

I shouldn't speak for Kings fans, but I'm VERY confident that they have NO interest in trading Clarke and Byfield for a one year contract. Extended? Totally different conversation and yeah maybe IDK.

 

[Sigurd]

MATTHEWS

for

KOTKANIEMI
PESCE
(UFA negotiating rights for Stastny) maybe???
Morrow

Is that something Carolina would consider?

Long answer ahead that goes into different details. I have a TLDR at the end though if you aren't interested in reading the different angles and my own analysis.

I know our 2nd D pairing with Skjei and Pesce has been great and I've liked them, and they're a big reason why Carolina's defense has been so great for a while, but since both Skjei and Pesce have expiring contracts in the summer of '24 along with so many other big players on the team (like Aho, Necas, and Jarvis), and are both around 30 years old, I think for the right player, Carolina would consider trading Pesce or Skjei but it'd probably sting them even for an all star forward. It's hard to predict though how much they value them because Dundon has made positives comments about Pesce and Skjei.

KK has really elevated his game this season and isn't quite the bad player non-Carolina fans assume he is. I think he'd normally be off the table, and if we got a new 2C, KK would be put down to the 3rd line. However, Matthews is one of the most elite offensive forwards in the game. So, maybe they consider him for a Matthews tier player.

I think Carolina failing to get other all-star forwards over the past year (since Eichel last season, then Tkachuk during the off season, and then Meier during this year's deadline) shows not only their willingness to target an elite forward, but I think their past failures of getting said type of players recently probably makes them more determined to get a Matthews, a Kyle Connor, a Pettersson, or a Keller to add to our core if the price is tolerable/within reason.

However, perhaps the biggest deciding factor in making a big trade from our roster (with Pesce and KK) is how much does Carolina want to take the next step to winning the Stanley Cup? We've had a good core of players for a while now, but maybe they say screw it, let's finally get that 20 something year old all-star forward we've been wanting for a while now. If Carolina actually, against all odds (it's still a long shot even with powerhouses eliminated), manages to win the cup this year even with all of their injuries? Maybe they aren't as aggressive, or heck, maybe they're really worried about guys being too expensive to re-sign in '24 with so many contracts expiring.

You'd probably be less interested in this, but If we trade both Morrow and Pesce though, our RHD depth is noticeably weaker, and Chatfield clearly would be on the 2nd defensive pairing (which he has shown he's capable of since he filled in for Slavin on the 1st line, but it hurts our depth). Also, Burns has 2 years left on his contract, and he might not sign another contract, but maybe he could still play well for 1 more year with how great he still is late in his career. Point is, Burns, as our 1st pairing RHD, doesn't have many years left to play and thus his retirement will hurt our RHD depth even further.

TLDR: Carolina might consider trading those roster players to finally get the 20 something year old all-star forward they've been trying to add to our core to help push them to win the cup.

 

[lionsDen]

I’m not sure how much Matthew's would help the avs. I don’t think Colorado should sink assets in a player they wint re-sign. Whatever the avs do though. Need a fairly large restructuring the roster

 

[Ghetty Green]

Well, atleast he won't have to worry about playoff performance in Arizona.

They've won 2nd round games In the last 20 years.

 

[lanceuppercut75]

Long answer ahead that goes into different details. I have a TLDR at the end though if you aren't interested in reading the different angles and my own analysis.

I know our 2nd D pairing with Skjei and Pesce has been great and I've liked them, and they're a big reason why Carolina's defense has been so great for a while, but since both Skjei and Pesce have expiring contracts in the summer of '24 along with so many other big players on the team (like Aho, Necas, and Jarvis), and are both around 30 years old, I think for the right player, Carolina would consider trading Pesce or Skjei but it'd probably sting them even for an all star forward. It's hard to predict though how much they value them because Dundon has made positives comments about Pesce and Skjei.

KK has really elevated his game this season and isn't quite the bad player non-Carolina fans assume he is. I think he'd normally be off the table, and if we got a new 2C, KK would be put down to the 3rd line. However, Matthews is one of the most elite offensive forwards in the game. So, maybe they consider him for a Matthews tier player.

I think Carolina failing to get other all-star forwards over the past year (since Eichel last season, then Tkachuk during the off season, and then Meier during this year's deadline) shows not only their willingness to target an elite forward, but I think their past failures of getting said type of players recently probably makes them more determined to get a Matthews, a Kyle Connor, a Pettersson, or a Keller to add to our core if the price is tolerable/within reason.

However, perhaps the biggest deciding factor in making a big trade from our roster (with Pesce and KK) is how much does Carolina want to take the next step to winning the Stanley Cup? We've had a good core of players for a while now, but maybe they say screw it, let's finally get that 20 something year old all-star forward we've been wanting for a while now. If Carolina actually, against all odds (it's still a long shot even with powerhouses eliminated), manages to win the cup this year even with all of their injuries? Maybe they aren't as aggressive, or heck, maybe they're really worried about guys being too expensive to re-sign in '24 with so many contracts expiring.

You'd probably be less interested in this, but If we trade both Morrow and Pesce though, our RHD depth is noticeably weaker, and Chatfield clearly would be on the 2nd defensive pairing (which he has shown he's capable of since he filled in for Slavin on the 1st line, but it hurts our depth). Also, Burns has 2 years left on his contract, and he might not sign another contract, but maybe he could still play well for 1 more year with how great he still is late in his career. Point is, Burns, as our 1st pairing RHD, doesn't have many years left to play and thus his retirement will hurt our RHD depth even further.

TLDR: Carolina might consider trading those roster players to finally get the 20 something year old all-star forward they've been trying to add to our core to help push them to win the cup.

I see what you mean about Carolina's RHD long-term. Maybe Nikishin instead of Morrow? Or is he totally off the table? Leafs could even add a conditional pick where Hurricanes get a pick if Nikishin plays in the NHL before 25/26 season.

 

[Daeavorn]

We wouldnt trade both Pesce and Morrow, it would be one or the other.

 

[Sigurd]

I see what you mean about Carolina's RHD long-term. Maybe Nikishin instead of Morrow? Or is he totally off the table? Leafs could even add a conditional pick where Hurricanes get a pick if Nikishin plays in the NHL before 25/26 season.

Yeah, I thought about bringing up Nikishin, but I figured I was already writing a lot so I left him out.

Carolina said Nikishin was off the table/untouchable during this year's trade deadline, and although they didn't say for who, it's a given that was related to their trade discussions for Meier. I think he's more likely to be untouchable than Pesce, Skjei, or KK. So, based on what they would consider, since that's what you were going for with realism, the Canes probably wouldn't trade him even for Matthews. However, if they did, I think it'd only be if they could get a lower price elsewhere in the package roster player wise. While both Nikishin and Morrow are both great defensive prospects, Nikishin brings so much to the game, and I wouldn't be surprised if he'll be an all-star one day.

So, if we factor that in, then I wondered if Skjei instead of Pesce would be better since Skjei and Nikishin are both LHD, and trading Skjei means Nikishin can play on the 2nd pairing instead of being stuck on the 3rd pairing after we would re-sign Skjei in '24. Meanwhile, before Nikishin comes over to the NHL, getting a 2nd pairing LHD from a trade or free agency is easier than a 2nd pairing RHD to replace Skjei.

On our board, Canes fans have argued the pros and cons of trading Pesce versus Skjei with them both about to be in the last year of their contracts. Assuming Carolina would consider trading either one for a forward that's elite/all-star/super-star, I guess the ultimate deciding factor would be which player the team with the elite forward would prefer. In this instance, if Toronto would prefer Pesce, then that might mean the decision is made, and Carolina would try to shore up their RHD by some means; maybe at this year's draft if Matthews is actually traded to them before Carolina's late picks at the draft.

We wouldnt trade both Pesce and Morrow, it would be one or the other.

Yeah, it's already debatable if they'd trade both KK and Pesce, but Morrow on top of Pesce hurts our RHD depth. For Toronto, maybe they don't mind Heimosalmi instead of Morrow since he's also a RHD, and to make up the difference, Carolina can give their 2023 1st round pick.

Also, it's not like either will be ready to play in the NHL for next season since Morrow is going to play in college for 1 more year.

Pesce + KK + Heimosalmi + 2023 1st round pick + mid tier prospect/lower round draft pick would probably be more in line from a Carolina perspective if we trade Pesce.

 

[lanceuppercut75]

Yeah, I thought about bringing up Nikishin, but I figured I was already writing a lot so I left him out.

Carolina said Nikishin was off the table/untouchable during this year's trade deadline, and although they didn't say for who, it's a given that was related to their trade discussions for Meier. I think he's more likely to be untouchable than Pesce, Skjei, or KK. So, based on what they would consider, since that's what you were going for with realism, the Canes probably wouldn't trade him even for Matthews. However, if they did, I think it'd only be if they could get a lower price elsewhere in the package roster player wise. While both Nikishin and Morrow are both great defensive prospects, Nikishin brings so much to the game, and I wouldn't be surprised if he'll be an all-star one day.

So, if we factor that in, then I wondered if Skjei instead of Pesce would be better since Skjei and Nikishin are both LHD, and trading Skjei means Nikishin can play on the 2nd pairing instead of being stuck on the 3rd pairing after we would re-sign Skjei in '24. Meanwhile, before Nikishin comes over to the NHL, getting a 2nd pairing LHD from a trade or free agency is easier than a 2nd pairing RHD to replace Skjei.

On our board, Canes fans have argued the pros and cons of trading Pesce versus Skjei with them both about to be in the last year of their contracts. Assuming Carolina would consider trading either one for a forward that's elite/all-star/super-star, I guess the ultimate deciding factor would be which player the team with the elite forward would prefer. In this instance, if Toronto would prefer Pesce, then that might mean the decision is made, and Carolina would try to shore up their RHD by some means; maybe at this year's draft if Matthews is actually traded to them before Carolina's late picks at the draft.


Yeah, it's already debatable if they'd trade both KK and Pesce, but Morrow on top of Pesce hurts our RHD depth. For Toronto, maybe they don't mind Heimosalmi instead of Morrow since he's also a RHD, and to make up the difference, Carolina can give their 2023 1st round pick.

Also, it's not like either will be ready to play in the NHL for next season since Morrow is going to play in college for 1 more year.

Pesce + KK + Heimosalmi + 2023 1st round pick + mid tier prospect/lower round draft pick would probably be more in line from a Carolina perspective if we trade Pesce.

Toronto would probably try really hard to get one of Morrow/Nikishin instead of setting for Heimosalmi + 1st + 5th. Maybe even adding in a non-1st round pick on the Toronto side to get Carolina to pull the trigger. That being said, if they couldn't accomplish that, they MIGHT settle for your offer. You just might have a deal here!

Kotkaniemi + Pesce + Heimosalmi + 2023 CAR 1ST + 5th round pick (preferably 2023) for Matthews. Fax the paperwork. I would anticipate some Leafs fans and some Canes fans complaining that their respective team gave up too much in the deal. Usually a good sign of a fair deal or close to one.

 

[OilersFanatics505]

Girard and a first for 50% retained on Matthews.

 

[lanceuppercut75]

Girard and a first for 50% retained on Matthews.

You're paying a third team like Chicago a 1st round pick in order to do the 50% retention, so Toronto gets... Girard?

A Carolina fan just offered Kotkaniemi + Pesce + 1st + 5th + Heimosalmi and didn't ask for any salary retention. I don't think Girard by himself is gonna be a competitive offer.

 

[Moridin]

He's like a more skilled Kessel.

Except Kessel showed up in the playoffs.

In the single time in his prime that the Leafs went to the playoffs he had 2 GWG in the series, and scored in game 7.

Not to forget being PPG as a rookie and sophomore with the Bruins.

Or being a key contributor that SHOULD have gotten a Conn Smythe on those Penguins back to back wins.

 

[Djp]

Matthews has a NMC kicking in July 1st and then walks as a UFA one year after that.

Leafs are either :
- extending Matthews on July 1st
- sign and trading Matthews on July 1st (LAK or ANH or ARZ)
- trading Matthews before July 1st, he has 1 year left then UFA

So what is Matthews worth for one year to Colorado, Boston, Carolina, Seattle, Vegas? Or any team that would maybe be interesting in adding him for one year.

Toronto can't retain any salary, but I suppose theoretically some third team could if you involve them and the team adding Matthews compensates the third team.

I don't claim to know what a fair deal here is. You tell me.

My personal assumptions :
- All trades will include 1st round pick or one of the team's best prospects or both
- COL trade includes at least one of Girard, Lehkonen
- BOS trade includes at least one of Hall, Coyle, Carlo, Ullmark
- CAR trade involves Kotkaniemi
- SEA trade involves at least one of Gourde, McCann, Schwartz, Wennberg, Burakovsky
- VGK trade involves at least one of Martinez, Marchessault, Karlsson, Smith

He can be traded to any team in league before July 1 and a NMC kicks in.

Vegas can’t resign king
Seattle can’t given they have 2 recent top 5 F
Carolina could do Mathews for Aho ( both 2 yr to UFA)
Boston would resign him
Colorado doesn’t have the space.

LA would be because they could resign him

 

[lanceuppercut75]

He can be traded to any team in league before July 1 and a NMC kicks in.

Vegas can’t resign king
Seattle can’t given they have 2 recent top 5 F
Carolina could do Mathews for Aho ( both 2 yr to UFA)
Boston would resign him
Colorado doesn’t have the space.

LA would be because they could resign him

The teams I mentioned were teams I felt wouldn't be able to keep him, and would be trading for him for the purposes of a 1 year rental.

Teams where he might actually extend: TOR, LAK, ANH, ARZ, and for crazy longshots maybe CAR, CHI, NSH.

 

[McJedi]

Speak for yourself on that.


Or trade Toews + 1st for Matthews. And trade another 1st to Arizona for 50% retention on Matthews.


I'll take Matthews over Lindholm literally 100/100 times.

Only if Landy and Nuke are coming back. Otherwise, you’re getting an insane 2C to play with nobody wingers. Defeats the point.

I’d get Lindholm for Toews and work on an extension for Elias.

 

[RiverbottomChuck]

The teams I mentioned were teams I felt wouldn't be able to keep him, and would be trading for him for the purposes of a 1 year rental.

Teams where he might actually extend: TOR, LAK, ANH, ARZ, and for crazy longshots maybe CAR, CHI, NSH.

You don’t think he would sign long term in Boston with a core of Pasta, McAvoy, Swayman, Zacha and potentially Bertuzzi and Lindholm?

 

[herzausstein]

does he walk? the leafs dont want to get john tavares'd

Wouldnt that be sort of poetic justice?

 

[mydnyte]

The teams I mentioned were teams I felt wouldn't be able to keep him, and would be trading for him for the purposes of a 1 year rental.

Teams where he might actually extend: TOR, LAK, ANH, ARZ, and for crazy longshots maybe CAR, CHI, NSH.

if Matthews was available, and Vegas wanted him, they have zero fear, and would flip Eichel + for Matthews. Vegas gets whenever they want, and work out the $$ in the deal, or afterwards.

 

[lanceuppercut75]

You don’t think he would sign long term in Boston with a core of Pasta, McAvoy, Swayman, Zacha and potentially Bertuzzi and Lindholm?

I don't think Boston would sign him long term at the expense of keeping their core guys together.

 

[RiverbottomChuck]

I don't think Boston would sign him long term at the expense of keeping their core guys together.

Gotcha, I misunderstood. Apologies

 

[OilersFanatics505]

You're paying a third team like Chicago a 1st round pick in order to do the 50% retention, so Toronto gets... Girard?

A Carolina fan just offered Kotkaniemi + Pesce + 1st + 5th + Heimosalmi and didn't ask for any salary retention. I don't think Girard by himself is gonna be a competitive offer.

That’s what he asked for and I gave a response. He’s not worth a bidding war with his playoff history.

 

[Ovi895]

Except Kessel showed up in the playoffs.

In the single time in his prime that the Leafs went to the playoffs he had 2 GWG in the series, and scored in game 7.

Not to forget being PPG as a rookie and sophomore with the Bruins.

Or being a key contributor that SHOULD have gotten a Conn Smythe on those Penguins back to back wins.

lol I'm not a Leafs fan but Matthews has 44p in 48 playoff games going back to his rookie year including being over PPG the past 2 seasons and eating his Tampa Bay matchups at even strength.

If your benchmark for showing up in the playoffs if scoring epic game 7 series winning goals you're gonna have a half dozen players "show up" in the playoffs each year only to be seen again and you'll be chasing Lars Ellers of yesterday like Colorado was this year.

If you compare Kessel's playoff resume with the Leafs (the guy who went on to have Conn Smythe worthy runs in your opinion the moment he was traded to a different team) to Matthews you might be in for a surprise as to whose looks much better.

That’s what he asked for and I gave a response. He’s not worth a bidding war with his playoff history.

He'd be your 2nd best playoff performer this year but sure

 

[dirtydanglez]

to la with an extension for kempe, byfield and protected 2024 1st

 

[Ovi895]

nm

 

[Muffin]

He can be traded to any team in league before July 1 and a NMC kicks in.

Vegas can’t resign king
Seattle can’t given they have 2 recent top 5 F
Carolina could do Mathews for Aho ( both 2 yr to UFA)
Boston would resign him
Colorado doesn’t have the space.

LA would be because they could resign him

Colorado just got 7 million in cap space so they might have space now.

 

[Ovi895]

Feels like Carolina would be the biggest front runner.

- team strategy of high cap hit 1 year contracts taken on without retention to maximize value from other teams, even already did it with Marleau from the leafs
- had large package for Meier that was beat out by NJ and kept their powder dry at the deadline instead
- 30 million cap space next year so they can do whatever the hell they want
- cap hell the year after
- can further incetivize Toronto by taking on Murray since they have space to spare

Matthews, Murray for Pesce @ 50%, Drury, 2023 1st, 2025 2nd,

Toronto gets a ton of cap flexibility and futures to pivot immediately and their defense is set going into the season Rielly-Pesce/McCabe-Brodie/Giordano-Liljegren. Sign O'Reilly, Bertuzzi, trade for Kuznetsov if they want to still run a deadly center. Carolina loads up while still keeping their 2024 picks for deadline. Probably a prospect short from Carolina but if Toronto wants to keep contending something like this might be attractive to them. Carolina becomes the team to beat and just has to replace Pesce which they should be able to given how well they spread out their defensive minutes.