Value of: your best offer for Evan Bouchard and Ryan McLeod (with a few stipulations)

[thehoffs]

They certainly could but it would surprise me. LA have even worse goaltending than Edmonton and aren't close in top end talent to the Oilers.

Vegas and Colorado are the teams currently in our weight class in the West. That's why I'm looking for speciality in players, so we can get past these two teams.

Worse goaltending??

Talbot > Skinner.

 

[Broberg Speed]

LOL. Edmonton D is worse in the league you know this right?

There isn’t a team in the league that would want Darnell Nurse. His contract is so bad it’s not even funny especially when he projects at best as a 3/4.

As for Ekholm he was a great defencemen when he was in his 20s. Edmonton got sucked into paying a premium price for a guy who may have 2-3 good years left than crap.

Anderson is only 26…. Has been good his entire career and has cost less than $5m.

This is what makes Anderson so valuable.

According to you Andersson has no value as he’s a UFA in 3 years.

Yet he has the lowest AAV amongst Top2 D in the entire league.

Holland is such a bad GM they are saying Bouchard is either being bridged at 4-4.4m or long term at $5.25-5.75m.

Are you shocked Edmonton can’t afford it.

Now a UFA in 3 years.

Oddly you mentioned that.

Two other players are also set to become free agents named McDavid and Draisatl.

It’s already being floated Draisatl is looking for a 14-16m per year long term deal. So a 6-8m raise.

Elliot Friedman also mentioned if Draisatl wasn’t bad enough McDavid will cover 18-20m per season for a 6-8m raise as well.

It’s also worth noting McDavid not Draisatl are likely to re-sign as they won’t win anything in the next 2-3 years in Edmonton.

Almost guaranteed McDavid goes to Los Angeles, Chicago or Toronto.

It’s sad but once they go Edmonton will be looking for 5 more #1 overall picks we nobody wants to play there.

I enjoy your posts but keep them public and rational.

Worse goaltending??

Talbot > Skinner.

I think the Oilers will do all right against LA and their goaltending.

 

[thehoffs]

The Oilers have roughly 5.62M in projected cap space, possibly a little more.

The Oilers have enough to sign Bouchard and McLeod but little to no cap space if they do. The Oilers should be capable of running a 22 man roster unless Bouchard and McLeod sign for the maximum rumoured, then the Oilers might face the challenges of running a 21 man roster. The need is to fill out the roster while increasing potential cap space. Hopefully improving the team.

Any offer should include a cap savings measure. Retained salary. Involving a third team. Incorporating a cap dump in the transaction, with an additional cost to the Oilers or team trading for Bouchard or McLeod. If not the Oilers are better off signing Bouchard and McLeod.

The perfect offer includes a top 4 RD and a third-line center going to the Oilers. Players the Oilers would be losing with Bouchard and McLeod. The Oilers should be looking for any and all proven veterans they can fit under the cap. Teams looking for high end young players with further room to develop should look to add Bouchard or McLeod.

The Oilers can add additional picks, players or prospects to accomodate any transaction for either one or both of these players. But the idea is to improve the team, this is not a fire sale. I'm trying to find creative ways to improve the Oilers to push them over the hump, not take on other teams trash and bad contracts. If anything the Oilers will pay to move undesirable contracts in order to accomodate a transaction.

Try to be realistic. Bouchard and McLeod are good young trading chips coming off of successful entry level contracts. Bouchard in particular should be of great interest to any team. Any trade involving Bouchard must improve the Oilers immediately. The Oilers can throw in draft picks, prospects and players if it is possible to upgrade at either RD, third-line center or any position.

Feel free to offer up your opinion on the value of Bouchard and McLeod even if your team and the Oilers do not make good trading partners. If you can make a real offer without fulfilling the above stipulations, go ahead and make it. A deal either works or it doesn't. There will be no consensus and the input should be interesting.

#1. You aren’t getting anything of value for McLeod. Nor will he add on any value by including him as a throw in with Bouchard.

#2. McLeod is strictly a Bottom 6 player. You know exactly who and what he is. Every team has a handful of similar players either already in the NHL or who have been steadily improving in the AHL.

#3. Bouchards value is specifically tied to his contract. Edmonton is legitimately thinking they can get Bouchard for 2 years @ 6 million while bouchards camp wants 3 years at 16 million.

The problem here is real. Edmonton must decide right now if Bouchard is the #1 of the Future. It’s either all in on a 6-8 year deal and you give another team a 1st to move out Campbell to make space.

If you do a 3 year deal like many think will be you are walking Bouchard right to free agency and his numbers will be drastically inflated playing with McDavid.


What teams will take on Bouchard?

Teams that specifically have a weak #3 and #4 or a team with a very solid Top4 wanting to use Bouchard as a 5/6 and on the power play.

Signing nurse will really hamstring the oilers. There is no doubting this at all as Nurse is not Top2 D yet he’s paid like a #1.

Other posing questions how will Ekholm play when he turns 34-35-36.

Perhaps a good trading partner could be Florida Panthers.

I could see something like;

To Florida Bouchard + McLeod + conditional 1st or 2nd round pick in 2024

To Edmonton. Lundell + Loustarinen

This would give Florida an upgrade on their D while downgrading their centre depth.

Edmontons case Lundell isn’t the shut down D they need rather Lundell is a solid 2 way center who could project as their 2/3C for years to come.

I really don’t think you are going to find any team giving you a top2 D for the pair you are offering.

New Jersey is also an other potential destination looking to upgrade their D.

One problem the oilers have and it’s a major one.

When McDavid and Draisatl need resigning it’s not going to be easy. All expectations are pointing to the 1st line pair commanding between 32-36m just for the 2 players.

Salary cap may to go but every single extra dollar is headed to McDavid and Draisatl and that is IF they stick.

I enjoy your posts but keep them public and rational.


I think the Oilers will do all right against LA and their goaltending.

LA shouldn’t even be near a playoff spot so why you compare to them I can’t understand. La is not a very good team.

But anyone takes Talbot over Skinner.

 

[MessierII]

Worse goaltending??

Talbot > Skinner.

Based on what?

 

[TFHockey]

#1. You aren’t getting anything of value for McLeod. Nor will he add on any value by including him as a throw in with Bouchard.

#2. McLeod is strictly a Bottom 6 player. You know exactly who and what he is. Every team has a handful of similar players either already in the NHL or who have been steadily improving in the AHL.

#3. Bouchards value is specifically tied to his contract. Edmonton is legitimately thinking they can get Bouchard for 2 years @ 6 million while bouchards camp wants 3 years at 16 million.

The problem here is real. Edmonton must decide right now if Bouchard is the #1 of the Future. It’s either all in on a 6-8 year deal and you give another team a 1st to move out Campbell to make space.

If you do a 3 year deal like many think will be you are walking Bouchard right to free agency and his numbers will be drastically inflated playing with McDavid.


What teams will take on Bouchard?

Teams that specifically have a weak #3 and #4 or a team with a very solid Top4 wanting to use Bouchard as a 5/6 and on the power play.

Signing nurse will really hamstring the oilers. There is no doubting this at all as Nurse is not Top2 D yet he’s paid like a #1.

Other posing questions how will Ekholm play when he turns 34-35-36.

Perhaps a good trading partner could be Florida Panthers.

I could see something like;

To Florida Bouchard + McLeod + conditional 1st or 2nd round pick in 2024

To Edmonton. Lundell + Loustarinen

This would give Florida an upgrade on their D while downgrading their centre depth.

Edmontons case Lundell isn’t the shut down D they need rather Lundell is a solid 2 way center who could project as their 2/3C for years to come.

I really don’t think you are going to find any team giving you a top2 D for the pair you are offering.

New Jersey is also an other potential destination looking to upgrade their D.

One problem the oilers have and it’s a major one.

When McDavid and Draisatl need resigning it’s not going to be easy. All expectations are pointing to the 1st line pair commanding between 32-36m just for the 2 players.

Salary cap may to go but every single extra dollar is headed to McDavid and Draisatl and that is IF they stick.

LA shouldn’t even be near a playoff spot so why you compare to them I can’t understand. La is not a very good team.

But anyone takes Talbot over Skinner.

That is an interesting take, but I don't think the Oilers or actual GMs would agree with you.

Bouchard isn't a 3/4 or a 5/6 (!) no matter how you spin it. That is really showing your bias here. It also sounds like you think Bouchard is a product of McDavid. That has been said about a lot of players on the Oilers team included Leon Draisaitl. Did you once say the same thing about him? It has only been over the past couple of years that Draisaitl has grudgingly been acknowledged as a top three player in the league by fans of opposing franchises. The leagues GMs and players knew it long before then. It sounds like you are making the same mistake on Bouchard. He isn't in Leon's stratosphere but he isn't the bottom pairing guy you're trying to paint him to be.

Bouchard is very likely to be the Oilers top pairing RHD for the next decade (unless they can get a better one which is next to impossible). Holland will have to figure out a way to sign him that works with the Oilers very limited cap situation. It will be tough to do. I agree with you on that.

You also seem to think McLeod has no value as every other team has guys just like him. I read a lot about GMs who wanted to improve their bottom six at various stages last season. It seemed a very familiar refrain. I think the Oilers are pleased with McLeod's development and I think he would have value in a trade. I don't think he would go for as much as some of my fellow Oiler fans think but he isn't worthless. Maybe I misunderstood you.

Not sure why you are trying to move the Oilers best RHD for a two way center in that Florida trade. The Oilers are deepest at center and are extremely thin on the right side. That really doesn't address the problems the team has with defense. In my opinion they should target a guy like Pesce, not Lundell. That is not a knock on Lundell.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Worse goaltending??

Talbot > Skinner.

Oilers fans are quite familiar with Talbot, I assure you. He is not better than Skinner at this stage.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Oilers fans thought this pile of puke named Koskinen was a starting goalie apparently.

They then sign Campbell soup to an equally worse contract.

I’d actually say Edmonton has no idea what a good goalie is.

Koskinen has better numbers than Talbot does lately. And most of us hated the Campbell contract the second it was signed.

That said, Edmonton is still better than LA by a solid bit. Nuking your depth for Dubois was a dumb move,

 

[thehoffs]

Koskinen has better numbers than Talbot does lately. And most of us hated the Campbell contract the second it was signed.

That said, Edmonton is still better than LA by a solid bit. Nuking your depth for Dubois was a dumb move,

I’m not an LA fan at all. Even then I can tell you they absolutely torched WPH in the Dubois trade.

The only thing of moderate value was Vilardi who at age 23 just cracked double digit goals for the first time.

Kupari is a bust.

Iafallo is a 30 year nobody.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Worse goaltending??

Talbot > Skinner.

10 years ago

 

[thehoffs]

10 years ago

Talbot had a bad year last year with Ottawa but has been a solid 0.910 past few years.

 

[russ99]

Pretty obvious the Oilers should sign both and move cap out in trades at the deadline.

They're a mid-high level playoff team with the current roster, the importance isn't buzz-producing moves now, it's postseason-improving moves at the deadline and we should know if the prospects getting shots on the roster are capable or not by then, as well as if Campbell still has any value.

 

[Seanaconda]

Love strong opinions!

But we'll have to wait and see at this point.

Kopitar/Danault/Dubois against Offence!

I doubt you get a goalie as hot as korpi was against the Oilers the first half of that series , if he wasn't playing insane the Oilers would have won in 5

 

[Mackiaveli]

Montreal wouldn't even consider this. Mailloux alone has more potential than Bouchard. He is what Edmonton fans wish Bouchard was. PP QB, great skater, physical. Both needing work on the defensive side, difference being one is 23 and the other 20. Bouchard is not going to improve his skating, so I will take.my chances on Mailloux, nevermind all the added pieces in your proposal.

One player is a prospect, not even a great one, and the other scores more than a point per game in the playoffs.

I am somewhere in the middle. Mailloux is DEFINITELY not a Bouchard level-upside prospect, but I also think Bouchard benefits greatly by playing with McDavid and Draisaitl.

In Montreal, Bouchard and Reinbacher would form a 1A/1B situation like Weber and Petry did, except instead of two old men they'd be young guns.

Mailloux likely tops out as a 3rd/4th defenseman who can QB a powerplay - a less toxic DeAngelo

 

[TheOrangeDesk]

I just don't get it.

Finally something you say that I can agree with

 

[Three On Zero]

I don't believe so. That's not remotely correct IMO.

One player is a prospect, not even a great one, and the other scores more than a point per game in the playoffs.

26 points in 28 games isn’t more than a point per game , 18 of which are on the PP

 

[MNRube]

Mailloux likely tops out as a 3rd/4th defenseman who can QB a powerplay - a less toxic DeAngelo

I know at least one person who would disagree

 

[PAZ]

Pretty obvious the Oilers should sign both and move cap out in trades at the deadline.

They're a mid-high level playoff team with the current roster, the importance isn't buzz-producing moves now, it's postseason-improving moves at the deadline and we should know if the prospects getting shots on the roster are capable or not by then, as well as if Campbell still has any value.

Guess it depends on how much Bouchard and McLeod want.

Probably could get them both under $5.6 mil on a 1 year contract, but that's just delaying and magnifying the issue next season.

 

[Oleksiak]

That is an interesting take, but I don't think the Oilers or actual GMs would agree with you.

Bouchard isn't a 3/4 or a 5/6 (!) no matter how you spin it. That is really showing your bias here. It also sounds like you think Bouchard is a product of McDavid. That has been said about a lot of players on the Oilers team included Leon Draisaitl. Did you once say the same thing about him? It has only been over the past couple of years that Draisaitl has grudgingly been acknowledged as a top three player in the league by fans of opposing franchises. The leagues GMs and players knew it long before then. It sounds like you are making the same mistake on Bouchard. He isn't in Leon's stratosphere but he isn't the bottom pairing guy you're trying to paint him to be.

Bouchard is very likely to be the Oilers top pairing RHD for the next decade (unless they can get a better one which is next to impossible). Holland will have to figure out a way to sign him that works with the Oilers very limited cap situation. It will be tough to do. I agree with you on that.

You also seem to think McLeod has no value as every other team has guys just like him. I read a lot about GMs who wanted to improve their bottom six at various stages last season. It seemed a very familiar refrain. I think the Oilers are pleased with McLeod's development and I think he would have value in a trade. I don't think he would go for as much as some of my fellow Oiler fans think but he isn't worthless. Maybe I misunderstood you.

Not sure why you are trying to move the Oilers best RHD for a two way center in that Florida trade. The Oilers are deepest at center and are extremely thin on the right side. That really doesn't address the problems the team has with defense. In my opinion they should target a guy like Pesce, not Lundell. That is not a knock on Lundell.

Bouchard is in the AHL on a good team and stays there until he learns how to play defence. He isn't anywhere close to being capable of playing on the bottom pair at the moment.

 

[Broberg Speed]

26 points in 28 games isn’t more than a point per game , 18 of which are on the PP

Evan Bouchard scored 17 points in 12 games during the 2022-2023 playoffs. But you already knew that.

 

[Three On Zero]

Evan Bouchard scored 17 points in 12 games during the 2022-2023 playoffs. But you already knew that.

That's a single season playoff stat, not "point per game in the playoffs". These kind of details matter, Bouchard is a decent offensive defenceman on the best powerplay in the league, but above a ppg in the playoffs he is not. If you want the honest value of a player, you need to represent his honest stats.

 

[Soundwave]

The Oilers have more than 5.6 million in cap, you need to look at the full roster when looking at capfriendly because they will add some roster players that likely won't be on the final roster.

Currently Nimelenian is on the Oilers full time roster, that's 762k that won't be on the roster when Bouchard is signed, so it's 6.3 million actually ... that may not seem like a big deal but it is in this case.

It means the Oilers can sign Bouchard to a 4x2 deal and McLeod to like 2x2 or something without too much fuss. They will have to run a 21 man roster for a time in that case but they already did that last year.

 

[Broberg Speed]

That's a single season playoff stat, not "point per game in the playoffs". These kind of details matter, Bouchard is a decent offensive defenceman on the best powerplay in the league, but above a ppg in the playoffs he is not. If you want the honest value of a player, you need to represent his honest stats.

Bouchard's sophomore season was more than a ppg in the playoffs.

Bouchard's rookie season in the NHL was under a ppg in the playoffs.

There was improvement. From rookie to sophomore season. I'm pretty sure everyone identified this nuance, except you.

Yes, Bouchard scores many points on an outstand powerplay.

Defensemen who score a lot of points in the NHL get many of those points on the powerplay. Do you acknowledge this?

Yes, Bouchard will continue to put up exceptional numbers on the powerplay moving into the future. Does anyone refute this?

 

[russ99]

Guess it depends on how much Bouchard and McLeod want.

Probably could get them both under $5.6 mil on a 1 year contract, but that's just delaying and magnifying the issue next season.

I'd think Holland would push for 2 year bridge deals to leave more flexibilty.

I don't see the cap as a big issue until it comes time to re-up Connor. With pandemic escrow paid off it could jump significantly in the next few seasons.

Lots of moves that can be made to get under the cap, like moving Kulak and/or Foegele after the holidays or at the deadline, and if we have to move on from Campbell we can eat some cap with some savings, but that would take additional assets.

Most significant of all is moving a contract with an NTC, which happens fairly often. IMO Kane is probably the most likely suspect, unless he has a turnaround year this season. RNH despite his fan favorite status would also be a suspect if he has another poor postseason.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Talbot had a bad year last year with Ottawa but has been a solid 0.910 past few years.

Who carew? He's 36, been average at best for 3 of the past 4 years, and awful in the other year. He's cooked as a starter.

 

[thehoffs]

Who carew? He's 36, been average at best for 3 of the past 4 years, and awful in the other year. He's cooked as a starter.

Fleury is 38. Tim Thomas was 40+. Goaltenders it’s all about athleticism as the position is so different than declines forwards or D men see.

This is why we see forwards decline hard at a median age of 32.6 years where as Dmen decline at a median of 34.4 years. Goalies have a wide spread. Some they drop off as early as age 32 where as others can maintain strong play to literally age 40.