Would Peak Jamie Benn Contend For A Scoring Title Today?

[SnowblindNYR]

By any reasonable adjustment metric, his 2015 is one of the weakest in NHL history. Arguably the weakest since WWII.

It would be a 105-110 point season now. Not going to win an Art Ross, but likely still finishes top five.

Is the adjustment just average goals in 2024 / average goals in 2015 * points?

 

[Golden_Jet]

no, alot more highend talent has been pumped into the league since then.

I agree, however
Crosby, OV, Sedins, Stamkos, Malkin were pretty good and will all end up in the HHoF.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

I agree, however
Crosby, OV, Sedins, Stamkos, Malkin were pretty good and will all end up in the HHoF.

yeah I know, cant knock them but really since Benn won ALOT of high high end talent has joined the league.

 

[22FUTON9]

Kind of forgot the fact that benn won the art ross until reading this thread. I don’t know which is crazier. The fact that Crosby in his 20s lost the scoring race to Benn and Tavares, or the fact that guys like Hudler, Vorachek and Foglino were all top 10 in scoring that year. Just a bad year in terms of scoring.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Hell no. Come on.

 

[GreatGonzo]

No. Benn benefitted from multiple guys missing significant games(Kane, Malkin, Crosby, Seguin, and Datsyuk) all while having 10 points in his last 3 games to seal the scoring title at the last minute.

Kane was actually leading the league before getting injured with Backstrom, Tavares, and Voracek closely behind.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I agree, however
Crosby, OV, Sedins, Stamkos, Malkin were pretty good and will all end up in the HHoF.

And in a peak to peak comparison against those 6, Benn comes in 8th. Fortunately for him, they all had seasons that were well off their peaks, allowing him to sneak through for the win.

 

[DitchMarner]

yeah I know, cant knock them but really since Benn won ALOT of high high end talent has joined the league.

Agreed. You have Matthews, Pettersson, Rantanen, J. Hughes, Kaprizov, Matt Tkachuk, Marner, Bedard coming in and players like Kucherov, MacKinnon, Barkov, Pastrnak, Nylander and Draisaitl taking their games to another level.

 

[HFpapi]

When he won the Art Ross, Benn was still only 32nd in PP scoring. I think a big reason for the crazy point totals lately is the proliferation of PP scoring.

So, if being deadly on the PP isn't really your game, I don't think you could expect Benn's numbers to scale up and extrapolate evenly with the rise in scoring levels as much as a guy who excels on the PP.

Probably puts up 95-100 points at his peak in last seasons scoring conditions which is a far cry from the Ross.

 

[Video Nasty]

Just because Benn could outscore 27 and 28 year old Crosby two seasons in a row doesn’t mean he would contend for the Art Ross in current day. That says more about Crosby and the weakness of his peers than anything. The guy played in a league where his top competition also missed time, had career altering injuries, and were just plain inconsistent or fell off (Malkin, Stamkos, Ovechkin, etc).

 

[Dr Pepper]

Benn had 10 points in his last 3 games that year with his team easily missing the playoffs.

Sure winning the Art Ross helps his legacy but he had some luck there.

Oh absolutely, dude won the Art Ross with 8 seconds left in Game 82 on a second assist that deflected off of him.

Gotta have some luck on his side to pull that off.

 

[Regal]

When he won the Art Ross, Benn was still only 32nd in PP scoring. I think a big reason for the crazy point totals lately is the proliferation of PP scoring.

So, if being deadly on the PP isn't really your game, I don't think you could expect Benn's numbers to scale up and extrapolate evenly with the rise in scoring levels as much as a guy who excels on the PP.

Probably puts up 95-100 points at his peak in last seasons scoring conditions which is a far cry from the Ross.

Eh, the year after where he had more points he was 3rd in PP goals and tied for 2nd in PP points.

Also, ES scoring is up 17.5% from 15-16 and PP scoring only up 8.6%. Though it does seem like the PP scoring at the top is raising more than that. The top 10 PP scorers are 21.6% higher

 

[jigglysquishy]

Is the adjustment just average goals in 2024 / average goals in 2015 * points?

It's the laziest way to do it but it's the most popular. VsX, Vs5, Vs10. Adjusting by EV/PP/SH.

There's no right method for adjusting, but if you do 3 or 4 methods of a non outlier season over a short time frame there variance is small.

 

[missionAvs]

Short answer: No
Long answer: Hell no.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

No the game is ruled by the powerplay and dipsy doodlers , no offence to Benn his style of play is just not conductive to putting up 140 , he still won his ross fair and square and pooped on everyone that year

 

[KevinRedkey]

FWIW - He beat a healthy Crosby the following year as well.

Everyone seems to overlook that.

 

[Video Nasty]

FWIW - He beat a healthy Crosby the following year as well.

Everyone seems to overlook that.

Most have shoved that unpleasant memory into the recesses of their mind, similar to him getting knocked out early in Game 7 en route to the first Cup in 2009, or scoring 15 points in the first 13 games of 2010-2011 showing that he didn’t suddenly develop new superpowers overnight and was simply on a sustained hot streak.

For some of those who haven’t, we’re seeing a grand revising of the type of player Benn was, to try and compensate for why Crosby failed to win against someone far below his talent and far below the talent at the top in present day.

 

[GRob83]

Benn's career high of 89 points is tied for the 85th highest scoring season of the last 10 years. So no, absolutely not.

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

Literally 0% chance right now, too many guys putting up ridiculous numbers that are far more talented.

 

[Matsun]

These are all the post lockout art ross winners over 82 games:
2024: 144
2023: 153
2022: 126
2021: 154
2020: 127
2019: 128
2018: 108
2017: 100
2016: 106
2015: 87 Benn
2014: 107
2013: 103
2012: 119
2011: 104 D.Sedin
2010: 112 H.Sedin
2009: 113
2008: 112
2007: 125
2006: 125

Benn won his in the lowest scoring era, but it's still by far the weakest win. I don't think Benn or D.Sedin could win an Art Ross, but maybe H.Sedin could. I think his peak is a bit underrated because he gets lumped in with his brother and Benn but his season doesn't stand out as a weak season at all.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

It's the laziest way to do it but it's the most popular. VsX, Vs5, Vs10. Adjusting by EV/PP/SH.

There's no right method for adjusting, but if you do 3 or 4 methods of a non outlier season over a short time frame there variance is small.

The fact that the variance is small is a result of the methods all being extremely similar, and shouldn't be used as evidence that the attempted adjustment is even remotely accurate.

Adjustments rely heavily on the assumption that the talent level in the league is roughly the same from one year to the next, and the only difference in scoring from one season to another is how "easy" it is to score in a given year. But, along with the rules/officiating/goalie pad changes that people like to use to justify adjusting, there's also obvious shifts in talent around the league from year to year which aren't being accounted for in the simple math formulas that are used to adjust between eras. Better players scoring more points doesn't mean it was "easier to score", nor does it suggest that lesser players would score more.

 

[Cursed Lemon]

Sure, if like six other players were injured.

 

[BagHead]

I've thought about this and changed my vote from No to Possibly. Jamie Benn won his title in a year where Crosby dropped off a bit, but it was still against Crosby and Ovechkin. It was "a chip, a chair, and a chance". I think, in a year where McDavid and Kucherov have down years like Ovechkin and Crosby did, he'd have an outside chance.

 

[blundluntman]

A lot of things would have to go right for him and wrong for the league. I still have PTSD from how much of a snoozefest the NHL was the year he won the Art Ross

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I've thought about this and changed my vote from No to Possibly. Jamie Benn won his title in a year where Crosby dropped off a bit, but it was still against Crosby and Ovechkin. It was "a chip, a chair, and a chance". I think, in a year where McDavid and Kucherov have down years like Ovechkin and Crosby did, he'd have an outside chance.

Even if McDavid and Kucherov have down years, there's still like 10 guys who have averaged 1.2 PPG or higher over the last couple of seasons, including MacKinnon who has scored at a 107 point pace or higher in each of the last 5 years. Peak Benn might have an outside chance at the top 10, but he's never winning a Ross against the offensive talent in the league today.