Expansion to 36, which city is number 36?

[aqib]

#1 - I agree with that "every dollar you get is one we don't get anymore" is NOT reality, but it IS the asking price/point of view of the teams who hold territorial rights. It's opportunity lost for those teams. It doesn't matter that they really aren't getting those fan dollars now, it's that they for sure never will if there's a team in Hamilton, so that's what they want to be compensated on.

#2 - Those numbers are "made up" as (a) an example to show the 2.5 to 3x multiplier for first and second owner, which was the real point.

The second piece of that is the NHL isn't going to open that can of worms unless it's a huge payday for them. Be pragmatic: the details and methodology of my post aren't important at all; the principle is why Hamilton is always a long-shot to ever get a team.

Everyone once in a while, someone will mention that New York should have a third baseball team -- or specifically New Jersey should have a MLB team -- instead of someone like Utah or Vegas getting a team. But it's instantly dismissed as impossible because 98% of baseball fans know the Yankees, Mets and Phillies would never go along with it. (FYI - The Mets exist over the Yankees' objections because the AL/NL had bicameral rules that allowed the AL to vote 7-1 to allow the Mets if the NL voted 7-1 to allow the Angels; those rules are gone now).

But with Hamilton, we have huge arguments because there's some kind of narrative that it's nationalistic reasons and not just pure capitalism reasons.

The Mets and Yankees are 12 miles apart.

The people act as if Hamilton is a suburb of Toronto like Long Island and New Jersey are of New York. Then you have Kitchener and Waterloo. Where you can't access Toronto easily for a weeknight game.

Also you ignore just how much that part of Ontario is growing both in population numbers and economically

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

I think Hamilton's only shot at pro hockey is either a return to the AHL or joining the ECHL

 

[BMN]

Then you have Kitchener and Waterloo. Where you can't access Toronto easily for a weeknight game.

I'm not from Ontario but I'd love a general consensus on how viable either of these locations would be. Would the GTA's corporate money (and metro area population) go that far if a person of means wanted to build the arena (or, much more likely, appeal to a municipal gov't to build an arena....)?

Because they both qualify under the mythical/not mythical "must be greater than 50 miles radius" argument for the Leafs and Sabres (well, OK, more the Leafs...) we hear so much about...

 

[takimaki]

Still talking about Hamilton getting a team. Talk about beating a dead horse.

 

[aqib]

I'm not from Ontario but I'd love a general consensus on how viable either of these locations would be. Would the GTA's corporate money (and metro area population) go that far if a person of means wanted to build the arena (or, much more likely, appeal to a municipal gov't to build an arena....)?

Because they both qualify under the mythical/not mythical "must be greater than 50 miles radius" argument for the Leafs and Sabres (well, OK, more the Leafs...) we hear so much about...

I'm not saying they would build an arena in Kitchener or Waterloo. I'm saying a Hamilton team would draw from those markets

 

[Bjorn Le]

I'm not from Ontario but I'd love a general consensus on how viable either of these locations would be. Would the GTA's corporate money (and metro area population) go that far if a person of means wanted to build the arena (or, much more likely, appeal to a municipal gov't to build an arena....)?

Because they both qualify under the mythical/not mythical "must be greater than 50 miles radius" argument for the Leafs and Sabres (well, OK, more the Leafs...) we hear so much about...

Kitchener-Waterloo is not viable now for sure, at least compared to potential new U.S. markets like Houston and Atlanta which are just so much bigger even if the hockey interest is less.

But in 20-25 years? Probably. Kitchener-Waterloo is growing much faster than Hamilton and could exceed its population by 2030 and hit 1 million sometime in the early to mid-2030s. Including Guelph (which is only 25 KM away from downtown Kitchener), it'll hit 1 million before 2030. KW is rapidly turning into Ontario's third economic hub (after Ottawa and the GTA) while Hamilton has transitioned from being Ontario's second economic hub to more of a bedroom community for the GTA.

The only truly viable place in Ontario for a new NHL team today that could be a top third franchise in revenue and value is Toronto-proper. Hamilton would be fine for a few years, but it would just be another Ottawa or Winnipeg with limited room for growth. People forget that Hamilton is not that accessible either—the QEW is a mess in the evening and London, Niagara, Guelph, and Waterloo Region are all at least 45 minutes (probably longer in weekday evening traffic) from a likely arena. Hamilton also needs a new arena as even with the existing 20 month renovations, FirstOntario Centre isn't an NHL-caliber building.

Couple that with needing to pay off both Pegula and MLSE, Hamilton is simply not going to happen. The only way it could happen is if Rogers is willing to take a Hamilton franchise and Bell waives the Leafs' territorial rights. I say Rogers and not the reverse split from MLSE because there is no way in hell that Bell cedes rights to the Leafs and let Rogers control all four major Toronto sports franchises when they only get a lame-duck Hamilton and half of the Raptors/TFC (assuming in this scenario the divested partner only sells the Leafs portion of MLSE).

 

[KevFu]

The Mets and Yankees are 12 miles apart.

The people act as if Hamilton is a suburb of Toronto like Long Island and New Jersey are of New York.

Also you ignore just how much that part of Ontario is growing both in population numbers and economically

I'm not ignoring those things. You're acting like the discussion of Hamilton is about the VALIDITY OF HAMILTON as an NHL market. It's absolutely not. The vast majority of hockey fans have stipulated to the fact that it would be a robust market.

The comparisons to two-team markets are made because a Hamilton owner would have to make a deal with MLSE for the territorial rights, not just the NHL. Which is why it doesn't matter if Hamilton is a lot further away from Toronto than the Mets & Yankees are to each other.


You act like I'm saying "Hamilton shouldn't happen" when I'm saying "Hamilton probably can't logistically happen."

 

[TheLegend]

Nobody’s rushing anything. The 5-year clause that Meruelo got to get back in automatically (after he paid the money back) was a bone thrown to the market and an incentive on him getting the job done if he was interested. “If” being the key word, and he clearly wasn’t given that he bounced at basically the first chance possible.

The NHL’s line of priority is, and has always been throughout this recent process dating back to Vegas, “who can write them the biggest check?”

Pick a major market, any major market. If someone from there writes a billion+ dollar check to the NHL, they’re the new priority.

I’m sure that Bettman would like to see the Yotes revived, but he would like a billion freaking dollars a billion times more.

The 5-year window was a carrot the league threw in to facilitate getting Meruelo to agree to the deal. I don’t think the league ever felt he was going to pull it off since they were privy to everything that was going on with Phoenix and the land auction.

But they had to protect themselves of any legal backlash.

They also know going back into Arizona isn’t going to be easy.

 

[TheLegend]

the distance from Honda Center to the San Diego Arena is about the same as FirstOntario Centre to KeyBank Center and its about the same timewise.
FirstOntario to ScotiaBank Arena is closer in distance but timewise its a bit longer.
Now of course I mapped it at 850 AM Eastern time. So people in Cali are asleep so the time would be less.

I’ll put into these terms….

LA/Orange County/Anaheim is North Korea

San Diego is South Korea

And Camp Pendleton serves as the DMZ along the I-5.

There’s a massive cultural difference between both metros and no matter how close they are to each other that isn’t going to effect things like ticket sales.

 

[TheLegend]

Yeah Hamilton is a money sink but Phoenix is not. Got it.

Any market is a money sink if you don’t enter it prepared. And Arizona was never prepared.

Hell even Elon Musk literally brought his own sink the day he took over Twitter.

 

[voyageur]

I don't think it's a matter of slamming the Hamilton area, but rather recognizing that both the Sabres and Leafs would be opposed to a Hamilton team and use whatever formal or informal abilities they have at their disposal to make that as close to impossible as can be imagined. NYC metro area isn't the same, as the Isles came into being to specifically block a rival league from setting up shop on Long Island and the Devils at least are their own state and were moved at a much more haphazard time in the NHL's history.

My take is that Ontario could add both a GTA and a Hamilton team, and both they, the Sabres, and the Leafs would all be fine and dandy financially. But I'm under no circumstance expecting the Sabres and Leafs to give the green light on Hamilton and especially not expecting the Leafs to okay a GTA team.

I think that is speculation because you could see a breakup of the Rogers/Bell consortium if Bell thought they could make money by having their own team to broadcast 70 games a year. Being able to broadcast into Toronto with that team would be a profit maker. Major sponsor: Tim Horton's seems like a no brainer.

But Gary Bettman does see that there is a disparity between team #1 and #2 in the region, with the New York model. The disparity between #2 and #3 would be even greater than the Isles and Devils, because there's a solid fanbase to work with, where Buffalo is becoming a questionable pro sports market.

Why would you ask Bettman about Anaheim? Anaheim was awarded the franchise pretty much the same time as Bettman was hired to be comissioner, a job he wouldn't start for another 2 months, so I really doubt he had anything to do with it.

The awarding of the Anaheim and Florida franchises was far less about expanding the footprint of the NHL than it was about bringing in a pair of big time owners. Disney in Anaheim and Wayne Huzienga in Florida. I could be wong about this but I've always assumed that this was an expansion that was pretty much put together by Kings owner Bruce McNall, who as Chair of the BoG, was pretty much running the league at that point as Gil Stein was on the way out as president and they hadn't yet selected someone to fill the role of commissioner (which would be replacing president as the tilte for the league's top executive). I think McNall wanted both to bring in more big-money owners to the NHL and line his own pockets, since he was pretty deeply in debt at the time. If I recall correctly, the1993 expansion came pretty much out of the blue to the general public.

Bang on. The protracted and difficult expansion process that led to some shady money being moved around in Ottawa's and Tampa's bid were erased when two heavy hitters opened their briefcases to the league. Mc Nall was not the most scrupulous of owners so there was something in it for him. But I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Disney made the move knowing insider info that Bettman was being vetted for the commissioner job. They would have had inside info of this as they dealt with him as the major network of the NBA. That expansion process changed the landscape of pro hockey, because the big time corporate players started getting involved in the league, whereas it was once dominated by Molsons.

 

[Oleksiak]

It's really time for Toronto to get an NHL team.

 

[hockey20000]

quebec cityyyy babyyyyyyyyyyyyy

 

[rojac]

I think that is speculation because you could see a breakup of the Rogers/Bell consortium if Bell thought they could make money by having their own team to broadcast 70 games a year. Being able to broadcast into Toronto with that team would be a profit maker. Major sponsor: Tim Horton's seems like a no brainer.

But Gary Bettman does see that there is a disparity between team #1 and #2 in the region, with the New York model. The disparity between #2 and #3 would be even greater than the Isles and Devils, because there's a solid fanbase to work with, where Buffalo is becoming a questionable pro sports market.


Bang on. The protracted and difficult expansion process that led to some shady money being moved around in Ottawa's and Tampa's bid were erased when two heavy hitters opened their briefcases to the league. Mc Nall was not the most scrupulous of owners so there was something in it for him. But I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Disney made the move knowing insider info that Bettman was being vetted for the commissioner job. They would have had inside info of this as they dealt with him as the major network of the NBA. That expansion process changed the landscape of pro hockey, because the big time corporate players started getting involved in the league, whereas it was once dominated by Molsons.

ESPN was not a NBA broadcaster in 1992. They've been NBA broadcaster from 1982-84 and from 2002-present. And in fact, Disney did not buy ABC and ESPN until 1995.

 

[KevFu]

quebec cityyyy babyyyyyyyyyyyyy

This thread has been going on for so long, I forgot who the 34 and 35 are assumed to be.

I'm pretty sure this was assuming that Salt Lake and Atlanta were 33 and 34, and 35 was Quebec.

And therefore 36 needed to be West/Central like Houston, Austin, San Antonio, San Diego or Portland.

But then Salt Lake and Phoenix switched places, and Atlanta is far more of a given than Phoenix 2.0 is. I've been saying for almost 20 years that I thought Quebec was #36, but it won't happen until they get #33-35.

 

[dj4aces]

But then Salt Lake and Phoenix switched places, and Atlanta is far more of a given than Phoenix 2.0 is. I've been saying for almost 20 years that I thought Quebec was #36, but it won't happen until they get #33-35.

If I recall correctly, the biggest issue with QC right now is ownership. Namely the fact that there currently isn't a group present who wants to put a team there.

Before anyone starts screaming at me, yes, PKP wants to put a team there. However, he's been seeking investors since 2018, and recently renewed his plea for investors (in June, if I recall correctly). There are other issues folks have pointed out before, but the fact remains that until PKP gets investors, there is no step two.

With that said, I'd love nothing more than to see a return to QC. I just don't know if that's something that has a remote possibility of happening in the near term.

 

[Yukon Joe]

This thread has been going on for so long, I forgot who the 34 and 35 are assumed to be.

I'm pretty sure this was assuming that Salt Lake and Atlanta were 33 and 34, and 35 was Quebec.

And therefore 36 needed to be West/Central like Houston, Austin, San Antonio, San Diego or Portland.

But then Salt Lake and Phoenix switched places, and Atlanta is far more of a given than Phoenix 2.0 is. I've been saying for almost 20 years that I thought Quebec was #36, but it won't happen until they get #33-35.

I think the general assumptions are #33 Atlanta (with concrete plans for an arena), and 34-35 being Phoenix / Houston, and then as you say it #36 being wide open. You can throw out all kinds of suggestions like Austin, Portland, QC, San Diego, or even get crazier and suggest Toronto2, Hamilton, OKC, Milwaukee, Birmingham, Virginia Beach, Mexico City...

 

[Golden_Jet]

I’ll go out on a limb and say, London, England one of the 33-36

 

[Yukon Joe]

I’ll go out on a limb and say, London, England one of the 33-36

The logistics of a single European team make it almost impossible.

Every team usually has multiple back-to-back games during a season. London is much too far away to make that even physically possible. Even on a days rest the travel would be brutal. Also worth noting the NHL hasn't played a game in the UK since 2007 - so not really on their radar.

In order to have a team in London you'd have to either A: play an AHL-style schedule where the same two teams play multiple times in a row; or B: have multiple European teams so the league can schedule you to play several games in Europe in a row.

Actually, on a just slightly smaller scale that's how the AHL expanded to California. They waited until they could move multiple teams and form an entire West Coast division.

 

[voyageur]

This thread has been going on for so long, I forgot who the 34 and 35 are assumed to be.

I'm pretty sure this was assuming that Salt Lake and Atlanta were 33 and 34, and 35 was Quebec.

And therefore 36 needed to be West/Central like Houston, Austin, San Antonio, San Diego or Portland.

But then Salt Lake and Phoenix switched places, and Atlanta is far more of a given than Phoenix 2.0 is. I've been saying for almost 20 years that I thought Quebec was #36, but it won't happen until they get #33-35.

I think from what I have read Bill Daly reiterated what I said earlier, that the NHL still has the least amount of American markets of all pro sports. 25 in total vs. 29 MLB/NBA and 32 NFL. So all future expansion is in the U.S. I see Atlanta as team #33. Because I think the NHL will eventually go to an NFL style of divisions for rivalries, and the South can't poach Nashville geographically, so they will add a team there.

#34 goes West we'll see who steps up with the money. Houston or Arizona.

 

[PCSPounder]

This thread has been going on for so long, I forgot who the 34 and 35 are assumed to be.

I'm pretty sure this was assuming that Salt Lake and Atlanta were 33 and 34, and 35 was Quebec.

And therefore 36 needed to be West/Central like Houston, Austin, San Antonio, San Diego or Portland.

But then Salt Lake and Phoenix switched places, and Atlanta is far more of a given than Phoenix 2.0 is. I've been saying for almost 20 years that I thought Quebec was #36, but it won't happen until they get #33-35.

I forget what 8 was for.

 

[KevFu]

I think from what I have read Bill Daly reiterated what I said earlier, that the NHL still has the least amount of American markets of all pro sports. 25 in total vs. 29 MLB/NBA and 32 NFL. So all future expansion is in the U.S. I see Atlanta as team #33. Because I think the NHL will eventually go to an NFL style of divisions for rivalries, and the South can't poach Nashville geographically, so they will add a team there.

#34 goes West we'll see who steps up with the money. Houston or Arizona.

I'm totally familiar with the argument that the NHL can have more teams than the other leagues because hockey has the Canadian fan base which makes markets like Winnipeg, Ottawa, Edmonton, Quebec financially viable when they just aren't in the other big four sports; it makes total sense.

I just don't think that necessarily means that ALL future expansion is in the US.

If they want to retain East/West balance without having arguments by the CTZ teams on who gets to be East, then there's practically no where in the US ETZ to put a team after Atlanta.

You have cities with territorial rights issues making them a non-starter (Baltimore)

You have cities just too close in proximity that you're hurting another team that isn't exactly the most robust franchise economically (Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Charlotte, Virginia Beach) and then the next level beyond that with places like Providence, Rochester, Grand Rapids, Richmond where the same thing applies with less people.

And you have Hartford, which is probably the best candidate, but faces the most opposition being right between 3 NYC teams and BOS.

Right behind Hartford would be Jacksonville, and the Jags have been a franchise with the "small market" and "possible relocation candidate" label on them for decades. They're less stable than Buffalo.

Now, you can always add more western teams and push someone like Nashville or the isolated Texas team(s) East. But that's more of the same with Memphis, Milwaukee...

Some of your best candidates (Austin/San Antonio) are both too close to each other and fighting for "third Texas team" status after Houston; you're not adding 2 or 3 Texas teams at once.

So Quebec IS the best choice for #36.

I'd argue the ideal for the NHL would be:
Houston, Atlanta, Phoenix, Quebec (33-36)
San Diego, Austin, Hamilton, GTA2 (37-40). And if you can't get into SO, I wouldn't see a need to go beyond 36 for a loooong time.

 

[mattihp]

I want a team in Olympia, called Washington Capitals. Just stressed differently


And a team in Oregon called The Trail

 

[aqib]

I think from what I have read Bill Daly reiterated what I said earlier, that the NHL still has the least amount of American markets of all pro sports. 25 in total vs. 29 MLB/NBA and 32 NFL. So all future expansion is in the U.S. I see Atlanta as team #33. Because I think the NHL will eventually go to an NFL style of divisions for rivalries, and the South can't poach Nashville geographically, so they will add a team there.

#34 goes West we'll see who steps up with the money. Houston or Arizona.

The road to the NHL in both cities run through the NBA owners. Is Matt Ishbia willing to facilitate another rebuild or Footprint to accomodate hockey otherwise you're looking at 2037. If Fertitta has been discussed ad nauseum. He hasn't bit at previous prices and the price keeps going up. So the only path is if he either sells or if he is forced to take an NHL roommate as part of a future arena deal.

 

[aqib]

I'm totally familiar with the argument that the NHL can have more teams than the other leagues because hockey has the Canadian fan base which makes markets like Winnipeg, Ottawa, Edmonton, Quebec financially viable when they just aren't in the other big four sports; it makes total sense.

I just don't think that necessarily means that ALL future expansion is in the US.

If they want to retain East/West balance without having arguments by the CTZ teams on who gets to be East, then there's practically no where in the US ETZ to put a team after Atlanta.

You have cities with territorial rights issues making them a non-starter (Baltimore)

You have cities just too close in proximity that you're hurting another team that isn't exactly the most robust franchise economically (Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Charlotte, Virginia Beach) and then the next level beyond that with places like Providence, Rochester, Grand Rapids, Richmond where the same thing applies with less people.

And you have Hartford, which is probably the best candidate, but faces the most opposition being right between 3 NYC teams and BOS.

Right behind Hartford would be Jacksonville, and the Jags have been a franchise with the "small market" and "possible relocation candidate" label on them for decades. They're less stable than Buffalo.

Now, you can always add more western teams and push someone like Nashville or the isolated Texas team(s) East. But that's more of the same with Memphis, Milwaukee...

Some of your best candidates (Austin/San Antonio) are both too close to each other and fighting for "third Texas team" status after Houston; you're not adding 2 or 3 Texas teams at once.

So Quebec IS the best choice for #36.

I'd argue the ideal for the NHL would be:
Houston, Atlanta, Phoenix, Quebec (33-36)
San Diego, Austin, Hamilton, GTA2 (37-40). And if you can't get into SO, I wouldn't see a need to go beyond 36 for a loooong time.

How does Hartford's hockey fan base breakdown now? I assume its mostly Rangers and Bruins. I doubt the Islanders and Devils have many fans there. Its not exactly easy to get from CT to Long Island (I interviewed for a job in CT when I was living in Long Island and they were like "Are you sure"). But I don't know.