I just don't think that necessarily means that ALL future expansion is in the US.
Exactly this. I think you're on the mark here to say that the NHL probably has long (quite long) term plans to reach 40 teams (I genuinely think all four leagues do, in whatever time frame makes sense to them), and the next 8 locations for the NHL almost certainly feature a minimum 6 locations in the US; the question is, are we looking at 6/2, 7/1, or 8/0? (I don't think Mexican expansion is in the cards for the NHL.)
A couple of the locations you mentioned as not viable, I agree with, but they would make some level of sense as escape valves if a team situation falls apart (if something unthinkable happens to the Isles or Devils, Hartford could come online, as it then isn't adding another team in that corridor; if something goes radically wrong in Columbus, I think the NHL would try Cincinnati or Cleveland instead of abandoning Ohio.)
The two Canadian situations that I think we all broadly agree on are Quebec City being one possibility, and GTA2 (be it Hamilton, K-W, Markham, I wouldn't hazard a particular guess here) being the other. I suspect that GTA2, if it happens, comes as a dissolution of the Rogers-Bell partnership, rather than as another force moving in, but either way, it's the most likely stable financial option in Canada, even more so than QC, as long as it can make up for the territorial rights issue.
The question then becomes what locations work in the US in the short, medium, and long term? I think we all agree that 33-35 are Phoenix, Atlanta, and Houston in some order, and 36 is our first opportunity to get a Canadian option; however, if a Canadian team doesn't present itself, I think we have to look at league balance at this point to see what appeals most.
East:
Atl: FLA/TB/TOR/OTT/MTL/BOS/BUF/DET
Met: PHI/PIT/CLB/NYR/NYI/NJ/WAS/CAR
West:
Ctr: DAL/WPG/COL/NSH/STL/MIN/CHI/UTA
Pac: VAN/EDM/CGY/SEA/SJ/ANA/LA/VGK
Phoenix to the Pacific, Houston to the Central, that makes a lot of sense. If you have Quebec or GTA2 to the Atlantic, and Atlanta to the Metro, you're good. But what if Canada doesn't work out? I'm going to hate this as a Flyers fan, but hear me out.
East:
Atl: NYI/NYR/NJ/TOR/OTT/MTL/BOS/BUF/DET
Met: PHI/PIT/CLB/WAS/CAR/ATL/FLA/TB/NSH
West:
Ctr: DAL/WPG/COL/STL/MIN/CHI/UTA/HOU/PHX
Pac: VAN/EDM/CGY/SEA/SJ/ANA/LA/VGK/SD
San Diego to the Pacific, Houston and Phoenix both to the Central, Greater NYC to the Atlantic, and the Florida teams, Atlanta, and Nashville to the Metro. That's probably the most geographically compact option you're going to get, and it's a strong reason for me to think that San Diego, or another Western city, is 36 if no Canadian option works out; it leaves just one Western Conference team switching over, while giving that team a group of relatively easy to reach cities to develop rivalries with. It's also well and truly far enough away from the era of the Southleast (not to mention has 9 teams instead of just the five) to not feel like a recreation of that old mistake, to me.
From either of those starting points, you're then looking at 36-40 being 5 of Quebec City, San Diego, GTA 2, Austin, Portland if the Blazers move, Milwaukee or Madison, Kansas City, Jacksonville ONLY if the Khan family decides they're prepared to shoulder any amount of losses to make it happen (which I doubt), or something loco like New Orleans (a city I love, but is not in a position to add another major sports team. Check back if the Pelicans move.) We're reaching a point where there's interest, sure, but practicality is about to rear its ugly head and shout a lot of these places down.
