Speculation: With the third pick in the 2024 NHL draft the Anaheim Ducks select...(Draft is June 28th @ 4pm PT. ESPN. ESPN+)

[Zegs2sendhelp]

The quote said that they were debating 8 players, I think it’s a given that posters aren’t using the term “impact” the way Madden and company are.

Ya idk the exact quote but

I don’t think it was directed at certain players or anything, just that we feel confident with whoever we draft being and impact player (of that group of 8)

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

His coach compares his style to Lidstrom and that’s pretty high praise since both Larionov and Verbeek played with him.

Coaches always have nice things to say about players they like. There's lots of guys who's style compares favorably to HOFers. But few ever end up having the same career trajectory as their HOF comparables. Silayev may well have a very nice career as a mid pair D who makes $100M before he's done playing. The next generation's Cam Fowler. But I'm fearful he won't be the unicorn or even 75% of the unicorn that some are projecting or hoping for.

At 15 I'd love him. At 3 I worry a lot about him.

 

[Static]

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Coaches always have nice things to say about players they like. There's lots of guys who's style compares favorably to HOFers. But few ever end up having the same career trajectory as their HOF comparables. Silayev may well have a very nice career as a mid paid D who makes $100M before he's done playing. The next generation's Cam Fowler. But I'm fearful he won't be the unicorn or even 75% of the unicorn that some are projecting or hoping for.

At 15 I'd love him. At 3 I worry a lot about him.

Agreed

I think it’s a very risky pick, if it pans out…. Awesome/amazing…. But I just don’t have a lot of faith in it panning out that way.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

It’s arguable Dickinson is a better skater, Silayev is a fine skater he just suffers from being a lanky kid right now so he at times looks like a newborn deer. Dickinson is definitely a safer pick to reach his ceiling though, so if Verbeek doesn’t want to gamble I get it, but me personally I’m letting it ride on Silayev.


I think you could say the same if Levshunov was lefty.

Silayev is an exceptional skater for his size. Dickinson is an exception skater, as substantiated by the CHL top performance on-ice testing results.

The awe for Silayev for me is his size + wing span + stick length. On NA ice, he should cover 1/4th of the Dzone by himself due to his far extensive reach with his stick. That's very appealing.

The drawback on Silayev for me is his defense in his D+0 season pales to Hampus Lindholm's defense in his D+0, where Lindholm was also playing in a men's league. When Lindholm was promoted to his HA team (SHL men's 2nd tier) in the last quarter of the season, he was identified as the reason his HA team pushed into the SHL regulation stages. Lindholm got better in the SHL regulation stages!

If Silayev is below Lindholm defense and provides very little offense, then I'd rather go with Dickinson and his evolving 2-way play. I wouldn't call Dickinson a safe pick, but a more projectable pick. There really isn't a safe pick after Celebrini.

I like Silayev, but if he is only just a shutdown D-man, then I'm meh at #3 OA. Then again, Brock Faber was mostly a shutdown D-man with a bit better offense than Silayev when drafted and then transformed his game in the NCAA for three years to become a 2-way D. But RD Faber was drafted in the 2nd round. If we draft Silayev, then I'll root for his success to mimic Faber's path.

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As for Lev being a RD as the reason for being pushed up, I think that's a disservice to his scouting profile. If being a RD is that much of a value rocket, then there would be a consensus on Yakemchuk being rated equally to Lev. Also, does being a RD carry more value than being 6'7? Guess it depends on the prospect b/c 6'7 forward Dean Letourneau is projected in the late first round and early second instead of being a top-10 pick.

From the Hockey News Future Watch 2023 magazine: (No link, sorry. I have the hard copy.)
Projected top-10
1. C Celebrini
2. LW Eiserman
3. LD Kiviharju
4. LD Dickinson
5. C Catton
6. RD Lev
7. RD Mews
8. C Boisvert
9. RD Parekh
10. RW Humphreys

As you can see, Lev was already on the map over a year ago to be slated into the top-10. There were two LD's ranked ahead of him in the year-out projection. LD Kiviharju and RD Mews have fallen down the draft hard a year later.

Lev's game rose higher a year later and it wasn't because he's a RD. It's due to his development between his USHL and NCAA seasons that has catapulted him into the top of the draft; he went from being an OFD into a 2-way D. If a prospect can improve that much between his D-1 and D+0 while going into a more difficult league, then the prospect becomes easier to project years down the line. Which is why Central Scouting ranked him #2 in its final NA ranking list. (There's a separate list for CSB EU rankings. There is not a list that combines both for CSB. )

Today, Lev is still a raw prospect. That is great and not-so-great. Not-so-great because you're gambling on him refining his talent. Great because his ceiling is far higher if he's this good being this raw. Whoever drafts him, I hope they let him stew in the NCAA for one more season before jumping to the pros. His NCAA team did a great job molding an even rawer project into a good, raw project who will probably be selected in the top-3/5. Best let them continue to develop Lev. I don't want another Ducks 2023 season where we're littering the NHL with prospects who still needed more development in lower leagues.

I didn't know Lev would be put up into another level to where he could be the #2 pick overall until recently with all the Chicago talks of liking him. Guess many more people are buying into what he can be into the future as opposed to thinking it's only because he shoots right.

 

[Static]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1804949543781585246

 

[anezthes]

I also get a lot of the same feelings watching levshunov as I did watching Mintyukov prior to draft… I think he’ll be a dynamic 2way dmen for a long time for whoever picks him.

Really? Lev's skating, puck handling, and decision-making don't look anywhere near as good as Minty's at the same age. IMO/YMMV.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1804949543781585246

How does the MHL compare to the CHL?

 

[ScarTroy]

Silayev is an exceptional skater for his size. Dickinson is an exception skater, as substantiated by the CHL top performance on-ice testing results.

The awe for Silayev for me is his size + wing span + stick length. On NA ice, he should cover 1/4th of the Dzone by himself due to his far extensive reach with his stick. That's very appealing.

The drawback on Silayev for me is his defense in his D+0 season pales to Hampus Lindholm's defense in his D+0, where Lindholm was also playing in a men's league. When Lindholm was promoted to his HA team (SHL men's 2nd tier) in the last quarter of the season, he was identified as the reason his HA team pushed into the SHL regulation stages. Lindholm got better in the SHL regulation stages!

If Silayev is below Lindholm defense and provides very little offense, then I'd rather go with Dickinson and his evolving 2-way play. I wouldn't call Dickinson a safe pick, but a more projectable pick. There really isn't a safe pick after Celebrini.

I like Silayev, but if he is only just a shutdown D-man, then I'm meh at #3 OA. Then again, Brock Faber was mostly a shutdown D-man with a bit better offense than Silayev when drafted and then transformed his game in the NCAA for three years to become a 2-way D. But RD Faber was drafted in the 2nd round. If we draft Silayev, then I'll root for his success to mimic Faber's path.

-------

As for Lev being a RD as the reason for being pushed up, I think that's a disservice to his scouting profile. If being a RD is that much of a value rocket, then there would be a consensus on Yakemchuk being rated equally to Lev. Also, does being a RD carry more value than being 6'7? Guess it depends on the prospect b/c 6'7 forward Dean Letourneau is projected in the late first round and early second instead of being a top-10 pick.

From the Hockey News Future Watch 2023 magazine: (No link, sorry. I have the hard copy.)
Projected top-10
1. C Celebrini
2. LW Eiserman
3. LD Kiviharju
4. LD Dickinson
5. C Catton
6. RD Lev
7. RD Mews
8. C Boisvert
9. RD Parekh
10. RW Humphreys

As you can see, Lev was already on the map over a year ago to be slated into the top-10. There were two LD's ranked ahead of him in the year-out projection. LD Kiviharju and RD Mews have fallen down the draft hard a year later.

Lev's game rose higher a year later and it wasn't because he's a RD. It's due to his development between his USHL and NCAA seasons that has catapulted him into the top of the draft; he went from being an OFD into a 2-way D. If a prospect can improve that much between his D-1 and D+0 while going into a more difficult league, then the prospect becomes easier to project years down the line. Which is why Central Scouting ranked him #2 in its final NA ranking list. (There's a separate list for CSB EU rankings. There is not a list that combines both for CSB. )

Today, Lev is still a raw prospect. That is great and not-so-great. Not-so-great because you're gambling on him refining his talent. Great because his ceiling is far higher if he's this good being this raw. Whoever drafts him, I hope they let him stew in the NCAA for one more season before jumping to the pros. His NCAA team did a great job molding an even rawer project into a good, raw project who will probably be selected in the top-3/5. Best let them continue to develop Lev. I don't want another Ducks 2023 season where we're littering the NHL with prospects who still needed more development in lower leagues.

I didn't know Lev would be put up into another level to where he could be the #2 pick overall until recently with all the Chicago talks of liking him. Guess many more people are buying into what he can be into the future as opposed to thinking it's only because he shoots right.

These are fair points so I’m not going to address most of them, but how was Faber better offensively in his draft year than Silayev? He had the exact same pace in the NDTP as Silayev did in the KHL. Silayev has the best draft eligible year from a production standpoint in the KHL. That includes forwards.

 

[Static]

Really? Lev's skating, puck handling, and decision-making don't look anywhere near as good as Minty's at the same age. IMO/YMMV.



How does the MHL compare to the CHL?

MHL is worse.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

At this point the only player that can garner a first besides the young players is Terry. Trade him to acquire another young piece!

 

[Gliff]

Maybe the Rangers thought the same way in 2010...

Such a dumb comparison. McIlrath was not viewed by ANYONE as having top pairing potential or being a defensive star. He was a potential top 4 guys that fought a lot.

Silayev was playing top 4 minutes in the second best league in the world at 17.

McIlrarth was projected to be a late 1st rounder and they reached at 10.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

I’m curious what everyone’s top 7 or 8 is now after doing some research. Here is mine

I would pick any one of those prospects over Levshunov. He is completely overrated and does not play a flashy game.

 

[Dostwall]

I’m curious what everyone’s top 7 or 8 is now after doing some research. Here is mine

After Celebrini, of course, mine would be:

1. Demidov
2. Levshunov
3. Buium
4. Silayev
5. Yakemchuk
6. Dickinson
7. Parekh
8. Lindstrom

 

[lwvs84]

The biggest team needs are RHD and RHS forwards that are big and physical, right? I wonder if the comments about not drafting for need indicates the possibility of Demidov ranking high in their list and Lev ranking lower than what we think. Lev seems like the perfect fit while Demidov is similar (but possibly better) than what we already have. In about 5 days and change we'll have some idea of what that comment means. I said before that our future is going to be made on the McTavish and Mintyukov picks than the Zegras and Carlsson picks, I think this can be added to the franchise defining picks.

And to be clear, this isn't to say Carlsson and Zegras aren't important, just that those picks were "easier" to make. Zegras shouldn't have been there at 9 and it was between Carlsson and Fantilli (much easier to make a pick between 2 guys that are probably going to be in the same tier).

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Wow. The in-depth breakdown on Lev was great, which goes all they way back to Lev being 15 years old! As for Lev's offense, I watched a recent scouting video that showed how Lev was more dynamic in the USHL and when he tried to pull off that kind of move in the NCAA, Lev was stopped b/c the competition was better.

Dunno if it's lack of confidence or lack of talent preventing him from being so dynamic again. Or is he trying to focus on his defense to prevent him from being so dynamic offensively. The simplified game is Lev's new game and he gets dinged for playing a simplified game than one similar to Makar.

Despite all the ranting, Lev is still in their top-10. Based on their scouting, Lev should be closer to the late first round than in the top-10 b/c Lev's game from age 15 has disappeared. So I'm even more confused.

 

[Boo Boo]

The biggest team needs are RHD and RHS forwards that are big and physical, right? I wonder if the comments about not drafting for need indicates the possibility of Demidov ranking high in their list and Lev ranking lower than what we think. Lev seems like the perfect fit while Demidov is similar (but possibly better) than what we already have. In about 5 days and change we'll have some idea of what that comment means. I said before that our future is going to be made on the McTavish and Mintyukov picks than the Zegras and Carlsson picks, I think this can be added to the franchise defining picks.

And to be clear, this isn't to say Carlsson and Zegras aren't important, just that those picks were "easier" to make. Zegras shouldn't have been there at 9 and it was between Carlsson and Fantilli (much easier to make a pick between 2 guys that are probably going to be in the same tier).

Totally agree- Mintyukov being able to hang with the big dogs rather than being a secondary or teritiary piece is going to be huge for the team going forward. Zellweger as well on some level.

 

[Sniperberg]

Skipping Demidov if he is available at #3 would be a mistake

 

[Bender66]

I said this morning or yesterday that the impact players for me in this draft are Lindstrom, Demidov, and Silayev. My opinion anyway.


His coach compares his style to Lidstrom and that’s pretty high praise since both Larionov and Verbeek played with him.

And all we heard was Muffin man had style similar to Nieds ...

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Such a dumb comparison. McIlrath was not viewed by ANYONE as having top pairing potential or being a defensive star. He was a potential top 4 guys that fought a lot.

Silayev was playing top 4 minutes in the second best league in the world at 17.

McIlrarth was projected to be a late 1st rounder and they reached at 10.

I remember when McGoonrath was picked that people were saying Rangers picked an 'enforcer' with the 10th overall pick. He didn't even pan out as an enforcer in the NHL level. He had 24 points in 65 games in the WHL his draft year, he probably wouldn't have had a single point in the KHL in his draft year.

 

[Ducks DVM]

These are fair points so I’m not going to address most of them, but how was Faber better offensively in his draft year than Silayev? He had the exact same pace in the NDTP as Silayev did in the KHL. Silayev has the best draft eligible year from a production standpoint in the KHL. That includes forwards.

Yes and no. When you look at the players he had more productive years than, he has a couple more points than players who played half the games he did. Total numbers, yes, but… Also, he scored 6 of those 11 points over 4 games in the first 6 games of the season. I don’t think it means he can’t get better offensively, but I think it’s also more likely a flukey hot streak than anything else.

Other interesting stats that don’t necessarily mean anything in particular. He got more PP time than all but 1 of the other defenseman, and was virtually never used on the PK. Hits a lot. Worst +/- for D and 2nd worst on team by 1 at -9 (still impressive at his age).

https://en.khl.ru/stat/players/1217/all/torpedo/

 

[Terry Yake]

I’m curious what everyone’s top 7 or 8 is now after doing some research. Here is mine

1) Demidov - love his motor to go along with the skill and him being taller than I originally thought
2) Silayev - love how he also brings physicality and aggressive to go along with the size and skating. He is only going to continue filling out. Could be best defensive d in draft.
3) Levshunov - did amazing at a very high level and is on a great trajectory. Has a good combination of what we need including size, skill, physicality, scoring instincts
4) Yakchuck - I see a ton of potential with his elite hands. Would have to simplify his game (not unusual). Love the hands and elite shot. He is a great penalty killer and in some situations good on d but needs a lot of work in transition d and d zone positioning. I’m not worried about his lack of top end speed.
5)Lidstrom - perfect compliment to the team. I question his iq but he could transform the makeup of the team and make us brutally tough in the playoffs.
6) Buium - I can easily see him being the 2nd best in the draft behind Celebrini. Love his edges and iq. I just generally much prefer size and physicality on the backend. If he had elite speed I’d feel different.
7) Dickinson - love his package but I don’t think we would get enough from him at 3oa and compared to the upside of the others. I would be unhappy with this pick despite me putting him last of the group I consider realistic.

silayev
demidov
buium
dickinson
lindstrom (would be second on my list but his back injury is very concerning)
catton
iginla
levshunov

 

[Hinterland]

Such a dumb comparison. McIlrath was not viewed by ANYONE as having top pairing potential or being a defensive star. He was a potential top 4 guys that fought a lot.

Silayev was playing top 4 minutes in the second best league in the world at 17.

McIlrarth was projected to be a late 1st rounder and they reached at 10.

Says who? He averaged less than 15mins per game. That's not top4. In terms of TOI he was 8th among defensemen on his own team. Nothing against Silayev but he was sheltered...like almost all defensemen drafted out of Europe's top leagues. Reinbacher was a very rare exception last year.

 

[Trojans86]

Yes and no. When you look at the players he had more productive years than, he has a couple more points than players who played half the games he did. Total numbers, yes, but… Also, he scored 6 of those 11 points over 4 games in the first 6 games of the season. I don’t think it means he can’t get better offensively, but I think it’s also more likely a flukey hot streak than anything else.

Other interesting stats that don’t necessarily mean anything in particular. He got more PP time than all but 1 of the other defenseman, and was virtually never used on the PK. Hits a lot. Worst +/- for D and 2nd worst on team by 1 at -9 (still impressive at his age).

https://en.khl.ru/stat/players/1217/all/torpedo/

He is playing at a ridiculously high level for his age. Look at the amazing ducks young d players and their horrible +/- despite being very promising. It is honestly expected. I would also add that points are totally overvalued for d. the highest producers are playing a completely irresponsible way that won’t work in the nhl and Silayev was coached by a legend that preached doing things the right way based off of his experience. Points me very little to me. I still want to see how he can handle the puck under pressure.

For the record, not saying he is going to be amazing, just saying the fact that he is a heavily relied on kid in the khl is ridiculously impressive and his point total as a shutdown d doesn’t reflect his potential or effectiveness.

 

[JAHV]

Scouts sure… but I think a silayev pick is heavily influenced by PV

Verbeek was a scout for a long time.

 

[lwvs84]

Totally agree- Mintyukov being able to hang with the big dogs rather than being a secondary or teritiary piece is going to be huge for the team going forward. Zellweger as well on some level.

Yeah, agree on Zellweger and there will be other guys too (Luneau, LaCombe maybe Hinds and Colangelo), but missing on those top picks would be more devastating than in later ones. The team will be built on the high picks and supported by the later ones. If Minty becomes a #1 (or even a good #2) as a 10th overall pick is amazing value. If we can get another top pair D or top line forward at 3 this year, that will be massive too... especially a top pair D.

We're going to need more Zellweger level prospects with late 1st and 2nd round picks, championship level teams find value with those picks or identify guys ready to break out and deal for them cheap with them.