Silayev isn't really a project pick but he is a projection pick. If a team thinks he can generate 45+ points offensively then he is worthy of a top 2 pick. If a team thinks he can generate 30-45 points then he is a top 3-6 pick. If a team sees little offense then he is probably an 7-14 pick. We'll know how teams feel on draft day.
Speculation: With the third pick in the 2024 NHL draft the Anaheim Ducks select...(Draft is June 28th @ 4pm PT. ESPN. ESPN+)
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I know you have your opinion of “on pace” for points, so let’s not assume those guys that had near his points in less games weren’t going to trail off as well. Playing in a pro league at 17 is tough, and I’m not going to give other guys more credit than they deserve when they didn’t play near a full season in the pros at that age.Yes and no. When you look at the players he had more productive years than, he has a couple more points than players who played half the games he did. Total numbers, yes, but…Also, he scored 6 of those 11 points over 4 games in the first 6 games of the season. I don’t think it means he can’t get better offensively, but I think it’s also more likely a flukey hot streak than anything else.
Other interesting stats that don’t necessarily mean anything in particular. He got more PP time than all but 1 of the other defenseman, and was virtually never used on the PK. Hits a lot. Worst +/- for D and 2nd worst on team by 1 at -9 (still impressive at his age).
And I’ve said it before, but I don’t care much that most of those points came in an early stretch, if it was that easy he wouldn’t be at #1 on that list. I know he’s a gamble, but the payoff could be enormous.
I know you aren’t shitting on the guy, just pointing out on pace means nothing, if it did Mac would have been PPG this season.
Ducks DVM
sowcufucakky
I think my main post was people going “ooh points record” when he set it by 2-3 points over the forwards who played 20-30 games. Damned impressive for 17 year olds period, but it’s not a “WOW!” type record for me, if that makes sense. I just woulda been more impressed if it was spread out more. It’s his record though. Still impressive.
The rest of it was just things I thought were interesting, both good and bad. I’m not opposed to the guy, but I’m also looking more at the “potential” in “potential unicorn” whereas other people I think got hung up on the “unicorn” half of it. As I’ve stated, I don’t have the knowledge base to have a favorite in the race, and just trust Madden et al.
There were 1 or 2 scouting reports saying that he could also be Zadorov. That would be ugly for 3rd OA. Other people say Pronger and Chara, which seems like it’s optimistic just because, well, Pronger and Chara.
Realistically, he'll probably end up somewhere between the Pronger/Chara and Zadarov reports. The trick will be, what's he closer to? A less dirty (but still physical) Pronger would pretty much guarantee this team is competitive for over a decade. Hell, give me Pronger's defense and physicality with 30% of the peak offensive ability and I'll still be happy with him at #3. With Zellweger and Minty in the system, any D we draft is probably going to be limited offensively anyways with little PP time available.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
Pace = ppg rate
Raw production = total points
You're denoting scoring pace (ppg rate). Let's look at them.
| Silayev | D+0 splits | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Set | Games | G | A | Pts | PPG | +/- | |
| Total | 63 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 0.17 | -9 | |
| 1 to 9 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.67 | 1 | |
| 10 to 63 | 54 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.09 | -10 |
| Faber | D+0 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League | Games | G | A | Pts | PPG | +/- | |
| NTDP | 46 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 0.26 | n/a | |
| USHL | 19 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 0.47 | 10 |
Faber was almost 0.10 ppg rate better in the NTDP. In the USHL, he showed he can produce at a higher rate.
As I stated in my OP, Faber was "a bit better offensively". If you're gonna quote me, then quote me correctly. And you completely missed the point that I was using Faber as a potential positive example that Silayev's offense might develop over the years.
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Silayev and U18 KHL production
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It is disingenuous to be touting "raw production" to prove offensive prowess. When we look at the points per game (ppg) rate for that same group, Silayev drops significantly down the rankings. Michkov more than doubled Silayev's ppg rate! If all those players below Silayev played the same amount of games as Silayev, then their scoring pace would greatly produce more "raw production" than Silayev.
2faded
Registered User
I guess it's not so impressive if you're comparing everyone on that list by PPG. But, looking at that screenshot of the top 10, Silayev is the only one with a (D) next to their name.
On the Faber point that was my bad, I originally read his stat line as 9 total points but that was the assist column. Still not seeing the connection how 0.10ppg better from NTDP to KHL makes him even a bit better offensively though, but whatever have that I guess.
And looking at that table, I’m not going to give guys credit for games they never played. Imagine his PPG pace if they took him out at 39 games. There’s no telling those guys also don’t hit that rookie wall you love to write about when it pertains to NHL rookies.
Remember what Macs PPG rate looked like around game 40? That’s why I’m not going to give a single person on that list credit for points or games they didn’t play, and use it as a knock against him that he played more games so he was subject to a much greater chance of hitting scoreless streaks.
And I’m not going to compare him to Michkov, who is a Bedard rival, but if I even gave credit to Kaprizov for games he didn’t play and let him keep his pace, he’d have finished 5 points ahead of Silayev. Same with Tarasenko. Both of them are prominent scorers in the NHL.
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One thing to consider is that not only do the Ducks have an excellent track record with defensemen, their Russian scout is widely considered to be one of the best in the game. My understanding is that his reputation is very well regarded around the league. If the Ducks think either of the Russians are the BPA for the 3rd, I have lots of faith.
Ducks DVM
sowcufucakky
Tools:
1. Anton Silayev
2. Artyom Levshunov
3. Sam Dickinson
4. Zayne Parekh
5. Stian Solberg
6. Carter Yakemchuk
7. Zeev Buium
Hockey Sense:
1. Zayne Parekh
2. Zeev Buium
3. Artyom Levshunov
4. Carter Yakemchuk
5. Sam Dickinson
6. Stian Solberg
7. Anton Silayev
Offensive Upside:
1. Zayne Parekh
2. Carter Yakemchuk
3. Artyom Levshunov
4. Zeev Buium
5. Sam Dickinson
6. Stian Solberg
7. Anton Silayev
Defensive Upside:
1. Anton Silayev
2. Artyom Levshunov
3. Zeev Buium
4. Sam Dickinson
5. Stian Solberg
6. Zayne Parekh
7. Carter Yakemchuk
Floor:
1. Artyom Levshunov
2. Sam Dickinson
3. Zeev Buium
4. Anton Silayev
5. Zayne Parekh
6. Carter Yakemchuk
7. Stian Solberg
Analytics:
1. Zayne Parekh
2. Zeev Buium
3. Artyom Levshunov
4. Sam Dickinson
5. Carter Yakemchuk
6. Anton Silayev
7. Stian Solberg
Average Ranking:
1. Artyom Levshunov
2. Zayne Parekh
3. Zeev Buium
4. Sam Dickinson
5. Anton Silayev
6. Carter Yakemchuk
7. Stian Solberg
1. Anton Silayev
2. Artyom Levshunov
3. Sam Dickinson
4. Zayne Parekh
5. Stian Solberg
6. Carter Yakemchuk
7. Zeev Buium
Hockey Sense:
1. Zayne Parekh
2. Zeev Buium
3. Artyom Levshunov
4. Carter Yakemchuk
5. Sam Dickinson
6. Stian Solberg
7. Anton Silayev
Offensive Upside:
1. Zayne Parekh
2. Carter Yakemchuk
3. Artyom Levshunov
4. Zeev Buium
5. Sam Dickinson
6. Stian Solberg
7. Anton Silayev
Defensive Upside:
1. Anton Silayev
2. Artyom Levshunov
3. Zeev Buium
4. Sam Dickinson
5. Stian Solberg
6. Zayne Parekh
7. Carter Yakemchuk
Floor:
1. Artyom Levshunov
2. Sam Dickinson
3. Zeev Buium
4. Anton Silayev
5. Zayne Parekh
6. Carter Yakemchuk
7. Stian Solberg
Analytics:
1. Zayne Parekh
2. Zeev Buium
3. Artyom Levshunov
4. Sam Dickinson
5. Carter Yakemchuk
6. Anton Silayev
7. Stian Solberg
Average Ranking:
1. Artyom Levshunov
2. Zayne Parekh
3. Zeev Buium
4. Sam Dickinson
5. Anton Silayev
6. Carter Yakemchuk
7. Stian Solberg
Arthuros
Registered Snoozer
I'm holding out for the faint hope that Levshunov drops to us so we don't have to discuss the muck of defencemen that comes after.
No Demidov or Levshunov seems suspect.
In no order
Sennecke
Lindstrom
Silayev
Yakemchuk
Dickinson
Iginla
First we've been linked to Iginla. Besides that, this list checks out from what we've heard. Most interesting is still no link to Lev or Demidov.
Sennecke
Lindstrom
Silayev
Yakemchuk
Dickinson
Iginla
First we've been linked to Iginla. Besides that, this list checks out from what we've heard. Most interesting is still no link to Lev or Demidov.
Arthuros
Registered Snoozer
So I guess it's either they plan to move down and neither will be available, OR they are seriously down on Demidov?
Either way looks like it's a defenceman we're drafting, which i don't think is a surprise.
EDIT: Brainfart, for some reason I thought Iginla was the only forward on there. Regardless, I'm not that hot on any of the forwards there.
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Why is that the conclusion? 3 forwards and 3 D listed.
Unholy
kesbae
There are some rankings that have Lev or Silayev pretty low. Ducks just may like a group of defenseman that much more than Lev or aren’t even bothering if they think for sure he is gone at 2OA.
If legit of course.
If legit of course.
Arthuros
Registered Snoozer
Maybe I'm crazy but I read Levshunov/Demidov being excluded from that list as them being obvious considerations.
Like it's whichever of those two doesn't get picked at 2OA and then the others.
Like it's whichever of those two doesn't get picked at 2OA and then the others.
- Jul 25, 2012
- 42,548
- 39,390
I assume these are the guys we’ve been looking hard into… I imagine the left over from Demidov/levshunov is certainly on our list.
I do think lindstrom makes a lot of sense for Chicago
I mean Madden did say 8. So very possible.
- Jul 25, 2012
- 42,548
- 39,390
Maybe we have a trade in place for draft day, that is allowing Demidov to Montreal at 3. If Chicago goes levshunov
Would make sense to not really pay Demidov much attention
I really hope so, but I can't remember the last time a team traded down so high in the draft. We could realistically get our choice of dman at 5 as well if we are certain Columbus will go Lindstrom
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