William Nylander has reached superstar status

[Nothingbutglass]

so you mean compare a single season or two to an entire career? that isnt how statistics work...

its very likely correlation and nor causation

the more likely case is players' primes coincide with contract years

The most relevant seasons are the most recent. He's improved. He's had 80 point seasons the last 2. If he hits 100 this year and is UFA, why isnt he getting Pasta money?

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

I mean, for example, players' 23yo seasons while on contract year vs not contract year, using all data by all players.

I know how statistics work quite well.

well its hard to tell when youre trying to contribute the performance of a single season versus a career; yeah, a contract year will look great versus a players 18-23 seasons or 33-40 seasons...

most sizeable contracts are signed within the ages of 24-32; which brings me to my next point, im guessing youre only talking long-term deals because i certainly never hear this when 90% of young players are bridged or UFAs get 1-2 year deals

so really, the 'contract year' stipulation only works for higher end players looking for longer term deals... even then its likely just correlation

 

[ZDH]

He's the one leafs fans in general want traded if they have to move one of their big three. Which never made any sense to me when he's the only one of the three that jumps out to me come playoff time.

 

[rojac]

You don't think his asking price would go up from 10.5mil with the current season, even though it's looking to be the best one he's had by far?


Take a look at historical data for contract year performance vs non-contract year performance, and see if it's higher.

Then you will understand why.

To be honest, the possibility of that happening is why I used the example of him getting his full rumoured asking price. In truth, if his asking price was 10.5, he was very likely to settle for less. In most negotiations, you ask for more than you want so you have room to come down.

 

[HockeyVirus]

People need to rethink the Leafs cap. They have every contract expiring. The new team so far has

Matthews(13M), Rielly (7M)

As long term commitments with Knies, Robertson, Liljegren, and Woll as youthful NHLers who will provide some depth. The rest of the team is as we want. We don't need to sign Nylander, Tavares or Marner. If they decide Nylander is the guy to keep in the core, they sign him to what it takes and factor it in.

The Leafs won't have more than 2 forwards making 10+ million after JT expires IMO. Marner will be dealt, they will try and get another top Dman and the core to try and win the4 next 5 years will be

Matthews
Nylander
Rielly
Top pairing dman

and 60+ million of cap to fill in the gaps.

He's the one leafs fans in general want traded if they have to move one of their big three. Which never made any sense to me when he's the only one of the three that jumps out to me come playoff time.

Marner is too good to trade for the discount of value the team will get due to his contract. I have no doubts these same comments will be made whenever Marner is elsewhere about the mistake the Leafs made letting him go.

Like we know.. We have 4 superstars who carry the team offensively and defensively to top 5 finishes each year with a bargain bin supporting cast and defense. It's why we "over rate" them so much because they are damn elite players and any one of them a team could build a franchise around.

 

[Jojalu]

Fighting and scrums are a means to attempt to bully and assert dominance. And for some reason they happen in EVERY PLAYOFF SERIES, every year throughout all of the playoff history. You cannot avoid it. We are never going to not have physicality in the games that matter.





Look at the people in those scrums. Marchessault, Ktachuck, Hill hell even Eichel was in there.

You either let yourself get bullied and complain to the referee because Tkachuk did something mean or you stick up for yourself. And by "stick up" I don't mean "collect sticks" (I'm looking at you Matthews.)


No. He really hasn't.

How not?

 

[canuckking1]

16 games doesn't make you a superstar

 

[johan f]

ive never understood this

do people really think players only choose to show up in contract years?

the likelihood is contract years tend to be around a players prime

I agree! Nylander has taking strides each season. He would probably play like he does no matter what.

 

[Nothingbutglass]

People need to rethink the Leafs cap. They have every contract expiring. The new team so far has

Matthews(13M), Rielly (7M)

As long term commitments with Knies, Robertson, Liljegren, and Woll as youthful NHLers who will provide some depth. The rest of the team is as we want. We don't need to sign Nylander, Tavares or Marner. If they decide Nylander is the guy to keep in the core, they sign him to what it takes and factor it in.

The Leafs won't have more than 2 forwards making 10+ million after JT expires IMO. Marner will be dealt, they will try and get another top Dman and the core to try and win the4 next 5 years will be

Matthews
Nylander
Rielly
Top pairing dman

and 60+ million of cap to fill in the gaps.



Marner is too good to trade for the discount of value the team will get due to his contract. I have no doubts these same comments will be made whenever Marner is elsewhere about the mistake the Leafs made letting him go.

Like we know.. We have 4 superstars who carry the team offensively and defensively to top 5 finishes each year with a bargain bin supporting cast and defense. It's why we "over rate" them so much because they are damn elite players and any one of them a team could build a franchise around.

That $60 million to fill in the gaps is kind of a whole team. Most teams like to be more settled then that

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Kadri 2.0? Nobody expects him to finish with 130 points that’s ridiculous.

Is there an inside joke I’m missing here?

 

[SensFactor]

He won't settle for less than $10.5M/ year

 

[authentic]

He won't settle for less than $10.5M/ year

Why should he when Tavares made 11 five years ago. That would probably be his minimum asking price and if he could keep this level of play up for a few more seasons then he’s worth it.

 

[All Mod Cons]

He'll sign an offersheet with Phoenix like Matthews.

 

[AvroArrow]

He won't settle for less than $10.5M/ year

He's worth it

16 games doesn't make you a superstar

80 points 2 years ago
87 points and 40 goals last year
25 points, 11 goals in 16 games this year

It's not just 16 games sample. Also if you watched the games you'd see how much he's dominating, these aren't flukey points.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

He's the one leafs fans in general want traded if they have to move one of their big three. Which never made any sense to me when he's the only one of the three that jumps out to me come playoff time.

I don't think he's who Leafs fans *want* to trade, he's just had the most favourable contract for years and now is the only one of the stars on the team that only has limited no trade clause (Matthews, Marner, Tavares and I'd include Rielly all have NMCs). I.e., he's the most valuable trade bait they have right now and they probably can't afford to re-sign both him and Marner if Nylander continues being the best player on the team. What would you do, especially knowing the team has holes on defense and in net?

To be honest, the possibility of that happening is why I used the example of him getting his full rumoured asking price. In truth, if his asking price was 10.5, he was very likely to settle for less. In most negotiations, you ask for more than you want so you have room to come down.

Why on Earth would he ask for $10.5M and settle for even less when Marner makes $10.9 and playing significantly worse and will almost certainly be looking for a raise himself? If they can get William for $10.5M I say sign him today. I doubt very seriously that's the ask.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

16 games doesn't make you a superstar

He was also our best playoff performer.

 

[canuckking1]

He's worth it


80 points 2 years ago
87 points and 40 goals last year
25 points, 11 goals in 16 games this year

It's not just 16 games sample. Also if you watched the games you'd see how much he's dominating, these aren't flukey points.

The numbers are respectable, but they don't reflect superstar-level performance beyond this season. Ranking 34th and 20th in league scoring as an offense-only winger doesn't make you a superstar. While he's performed like one this season, as I said earlier, 16 games alone doesn't elevate him to superstar status

 

[MikeyS]

Contract year, lol

 

[KevinRedkey]

He was also our best playoff performer.

That's not really saying much.

He certainly has leveled up though.

 

[Dicky113]

I love it. He’s going to get paiiiiid.

Toronto cap hell is going to be very interesting and hilarious

 

[Slimmy]

Very good player, but IMHO a minor quibble that a "star" means one is known by local sport fans generally and perhaps even by the fans of a sport league generally, while by contrast a "superstar" is somebody known nationally, if not internationally, by average folks who may not even follow any sports at all, e.g., Shaquille O'Neal, Patrick Mahomes, etc.

A good rule of thumb is whether somebody has been in an insurance commercial or appeared in network commercials for non-sports timeslots, If not, at best they are a mere star.

Of course, somebody could be a "superstar" to you subjectively, and there is nothing wrong with that if it makes you happier.

Who the hell is Patrick Mahomes?

 

[The90]

I love it. He’s going to get paiiiiid.

Toronto cap hell is going to be very interesting and hilarious

It’s hilarious how it’s always a ‘cap hell’ problem, until it’s not and they figure it out.

 

[kp61c]

Should get more than Marner. He is clearly a better player now.

 

[Goose]

As a Leafs fan, I’ve never liked him, always seemed like the ultimate silver spoon player, and his smashing it in his contract year is proof to me that when he wants to, he can turn it up a level, but he mostly chooses not to.

Can’t argue he’s an elite talent though.

Probably an unpopular take in Leafs land, but I hope the Leafs capitalize on him at the absolute top of the market right now and do a sign and trade deal for a solid D-man under a decent contract for a few years.

 

[leafsfan5]

I love it. He’s going to get paiiiiid.

Toronto cap hell is going to be very interesting and hilarious

It's actually quite simple, we will feel a crunch for one year while Tavares is still making 11 million. Then, when he's up we have Matthews/Marner/Nylander being the guys making 10+

Leafs also have a good amount of young forwards coming up now too which will help mitigate the impact felt by Nylander's deal. Knies, Robertson, Minten, Cowan all look like they are and will be making contributions on ELCs