Tribute William Nylander Discussion Thread: Ya Gotta Be Blessed Edition

[Superstar]

Nylander doesnt either shown by his fantastic 5v5 scoring numbers.

The point is, putting him on the #1 PP unit was always going to give him a far greater ceiling to produce points.

You're actually a pretty good poster but you go way too far in some of these agenda pushing debates.

We get it. You dont like Nylander.

Johnsson should never have been on the #1 PP over Willy.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Sadly, most people don't watch our pay enough attention to make a reasoned analysis. They watch the odd game, check the point totals, and make observations.

Nylander has typically been a 60 point player getting 2nd line ES and PP ice-time. That is frankly, very good. Clear 1st line numbers, despite 2nd line opportunity.

Now that he's getting low-end 1st line ES and PP numbers, he's close to a point/game. Under Keefe, where he's basically getting higher-end 1st line ES and PP usage, he's at a point/game pace.

Everyone thinks he's trying harder, and maybe he is. But the big difference here is that Nylander is getting a lot more ice-time, especially on the PP. If he gets this usage (and he should) his contract is a pretty significant bargain.

I wouldn't say this is necessarily the case. I will look at per 60 stats to disregard the differences in ice time even though he had pretty similar PP time in his first full year (like 30 seconds less) and like 30 seconds less at 5 on 5 in 2017/18 too. Overall like a minute in a half in increased ice time per game total compared to his next highest season.

Let's start with the PP, his first full year was pretty insane with almost double the PPP/60 than his next best season (current one). Disregarding that as a result his first assists/60 and second assists/60 weren't particularly different this year than his average or previous best/worsts. The biggest difference I see is he is shooting almost double his previous best shooting percentage (25%) and a pretty big increase in his goals/60. His iCF/60 and rebounds created/60 are also quite down this year though his iHDCF/60 is up a lot this year. This leads me to think purely looking at stats that he is playing a different role on the PP and is shooting from a lot more in tight with better shot selection too. Eye test matches this as well.

Let's then look at 5 on 5. His goals/60 are way way up this year, pretty much double his next best season. His assists are pretty similar for both primary and secondary assists which makes sense as he is pacing for similar amount of assists. Again he is shooting at a much higher percentage that in previous years (12.8% vs 9.04%). A lot of similar other stats but again with a better iHDCF/60 than previous years. I think this points at Nylander having a better shot selection this year, likely shooting more from in tight and generally just improving/working on his shot over the summer like was reported.

Overall I would say his improved play is not completely due to an increase in ice time as his goals/60 are way up at both 5 on 5 and PP. He has worked on his shot, seems to be picking a wider range of shots rather than always shooting for the top corner and seems to be shooting more from in tight. He also is playing a different role at 5 on 5, I.e not dishing the push to Matthews at every opportunity.

 

[LeafsNation75]

 

[Apotheosis]

He's going to be a PPG winger from here on out under Keefe. The offence on this team is set. It's literally maybe one or two solid D away from being the best team in the league. I don't think there's another team in the league that has two guys playing at a 100 point pace (Marner and Matthews) as well as having two extra PPG players in that very same top 6 while having good bottom 6 depth.

 

[KuleminFan41]

I'll still call it an overpayment - based on what his peers got. His best comparable was Ehlers who signed for 1M less for 1 year less.

That said, I'm not calling it a BAD contract.

These are two different things.

Which peers though? Looking at some comparables around the league for players around his age

Nylander(6.9M) 21 goals, 21 assists for 42 points in 48 games
Laine(6.75M) - 15 goals, 28 assists for 43 points in 45 games
Gaudreau (6.75M) - 13 goals, 25 assists for 38 points in 49 games
Tkachuk (7.00M) - 15 goals, 23 assists for 38 points in 48 games
Ehlers (6.00M) - 18 goals, 19 assists for 37 points in 47 games
Monahan (6.375M) - 14 goals , 22 assists for 36 points in 49 games
Forsberg(6.00M) - 16 goals, 16 assists for 32 points in 40 games
Larkin (6.1M) - 11 goals, 20 assists for 31 points in 47 games

Don't get me wrong, point totals aren't everything, but production wise, he holds up rather well against other competition around the league

 

[LeafsNation75]

Which peers though? Looking at some comparables around the league for players around his age

Nylander(6.9M) 21 goals, 21 assists for 42 points in 48 games
Laine(6.75M) - 15 goals, 28 assists for 43 points in 45 games
Gaudreau (6.75M) - 13 goals, 25 assists for 38 points in 49 games
Tkachuk (7.00M) - 15 goals, 23 assists for 38 points in 48 games
Ehlers (6.00M) - 18 goals, 19 assists for 37 points in 47 games
Monahan (6.375M) - 14 goals , 22 assists for 36 points in 49 games
Forsberg(6.00M) - 16 goals, 16 assists for 32 points in 40 games
Larkin (6.1M) - 11 goals, 20 assists for 31 points in 47 games

Don't get me wrong, point totals aren't everything, but production wise, he holds up rather well against other competition around the league

I don't think anyone would have predicted Nylander to at least have the most goals among those players at this point of the season.

 

[MyBudJT]

Which peers though? Looking at some comparables around the league for players around his age

Nylander(6.9M) 21 goals, 21 assists for 42 points in 48 games
Laine(6.75M) - 15 goals, 28 assists for 43 points in 45 games
Gaudreau (6.75M) - 13 goals, 25 assists for 38 points in 49 games
Tkachuk (7.00M) - 15 goals, 23 assists for 38 points in 48 games
Ehlers (6.00M) - 18 goals, 19 assists for 37 points in 47 games
Monahan (6.375M) - 14 goals , 22 assists for 36 points in 49 games
Forsberg(6.00M) - 16 goals, 16 assists for 32 points in 40 games
Larkin (6.1M) - 11 goals, 20 assists for 31 points in 47 games

Don't get me wrong, point totals aren't everything, but production wise, he holds up rather well against other competition around the league

you’re talking about something different. A bunch of these players were not signed when Nylander signed his contract.

 

[KuleminFan41]

you’re talking about something different. A bunch of these players were not signed when Nylander signed his contract.

While I agree with the idea that not every player can be a direct comparable based on when they signed their contracts, that doesn't change the fact that from what who I named, Forsberg, Gaudreau and Monahan(2016 contracts), received their deals for hitting 60 points. Larkin signed his deal the same season as Nylander and he never scored more than 45 points in a season before that deal. Laine, Tkachuk and Ehlers signed their deals within a year of Nylander. Before signing their contracts, he earned more points than Ehlers, Tkachuk, Larkin, and had similar point totals as Forsberg, Monahan, and Gaudreau. But like I said, point totals aren't everything but it gives you a decent idea that Nylander isn't exactly the overpaid "hack" he is.

 

[MyBudJT]

While I agree with the idea that not every player can be a direct comparable based on when they signed their contracts, that doesn't change the fact that from what who I named, Forsberg, Gaudreau and Monahan(2016 contracts), received their deals for hitting 60 points. Larkin signed his deal the same season as Nylander and he never scored more than 45 points in a season before that deal. Laine, Tkachuk and Ehlers signed their deals within a year of Nylander. Before signing their contracts, he earned more points than Ehlers, Tkachuk, Larkin, and had similar point totals as Forsberg, Monahan, and Gaudreau. But like I said, point totals aren't everything but it gives you a decent idea that Nylander isn't exactly the overpaid "hack" he is.

There is a lot of incorrect/false information in your post. Look it up on Capfriendly.

After Ehlers, Forsberg was the 2nd best comparable at the time, and even then it wasn't a great comparable. Forsberg was coming off of 26G and 33G compaigns and still signed for 0.5% less of the cap. If you used Ehlers as a comparable, Nylander should have got no more than 6x6 (edit: remember, Ehlers signed for 7 years), and if Forsberg as a comparable no more than 6.5x6.

Gaudeau didn't receive his deal for hitting 60 points... he received it for hitting 30G and 78P in 79GP. Geaudreau's 1st two seasons were way better than Nylander's....

Monohan is strictly a center, and had 27G and 30G campaigns... logic would have been that Nylander should have got less than Monahah, too....

Dyland Larkin is also a center and actually DID score more than 45 points when he signed his contract (he had a 63 point compaign and lead his team in scoring and was the clear leader of the team). He also played on a brutal team with no support. A very different scenerio. He still had the clearly better contract year AND signed for significantly less AAV...

Every year, Ehlers had a better ELC season than Nylander...

Also, I never called Nylander a "hack"...

Edit: And not to mention, a lot of these players hadn't played with a Matthews-like talent.

 

[ZEBROA]

Yeah lets go on forever about the past, that will help.

 

[MyBudJT]

Yeah lets go on forever about the past, that will help.

People are confusing past opinions on past topics with present opinions on present topics.

Was Nylander overpaid in relation to his peers? Absolutely.

Will Nylander be worth his contract? Yeah, probably...

When people take the first opinion and claim that these people dislike Nylander and whatnot... then yeah.... I’ll absolutely debate past topics and remind them they’re talking about two different things.

 

[Menzinger]

Which peers though? Looking at some comparables around the league for players around his age

Nylander(6.9M) 21 goals, 21 assists for 42 points in 48 games
Laine(6.75M) - 15 goals, 28 assists for 43 points in 45 games
Gaudreau (6.75M) - 13 goals, 25 assists for 38 points in 49 games
Tkachuk (7.00M) - 15 goals, 23 assists for 38 points in 48 games
Ehlers (6.00M) - 18 goals, 19 assists for 37 points in 47 games
Monahan (6.375M) - 14 goals , 22 assists for 36 points in 49 games
Forsberg(6.00M) - 16 goals, 16 assists for 32 points in 40 games
Larkin (6.1M) - 11 goals, 20 assists for 31 points in 47 games

Don't get me wrong, point totals aren't everything, but production wise, he holds up rather well against other competition around the league

Things start to look even better for Nylander when you contextualized icetime - Nylander getting less average toi and not on the 1st pp.

Still cant believe this forum is still debating this

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Things start to look even better for Nylander when you contextualized icetime - Nylander getting less average toi and not on the 1st pp.

Still cant believe this forum is still debating this

I think the forum is still debating this as there is some serious revisionist history going. That post as MyBudJT pointed out was full of just incorrect facts that completely change the situation....

Nylander was very slightly overpaid largely because of his potential to play center and him getting less PP time than some of his comparables. Nylander also gave up 1 UFA year vs 3 for Ehlers as Ehlers played a full season in the NHL at 1 year younger. This is the main reason I think he was slightly overpaid, hardly sold any UFA years.

I don't want to get into this shit again I just cant stand straight up wrong information

 

[Hockey Talker29]

I wouldn't say this is necessarily the case. I will look at per 60 stats to disregard the differences in ice time even though he had pretty similar PP time in his first full year (like 30 seconds less) and like 30 seconds less at 5 on 5 in 2017/18 too. Overall like a minute in a half in increased ice time per game total compared to his next highest season.

Let's start with the PP, his first full year was pretty insane with almost double the PPP/60 than his next best season (current one). Disregarding that as a result his first assists/60 and second assists/60 weren't particularly different this year than his average or previous best/worsts. The biggest difference I see is he is shooting almost double his previous best shooting percentage (25%) and a pretty big increase in his goals/60. His iCF/60 and rebounds created/60 are also quite down this year though his iHDCF/60 is up a lot this year. This leads me to think purely looking at stats that he is playing a different role on the PP and is shooting from a lot more in tight with better shot selection too. Eye test matches this as well.

Let's then look at 5 on 5. His goals/60 are way way up this year, pretty much double his next best season. His assists are pretty similar for both primary and secondary assists which makes sense as he is pacing for similar amount of assists. Again he is shooting at a much higher percentage that in previous years (12.8% vs 9.04%). A lot of similar other stats but again with a better iHDCF/60 than previous years. I think this points at Nylander having a better shot selection this year, likely shooting more from in tight and generally just improving/working on his shot over the summer like was reported.

Overall I would say his improved play is not completely due to an increase in ice time as his goals/60 are way up at both 5 on 5 and PP. He has worked on his shot, seems to be picking a wider range of shots rather than always shooting for the top corner and seems to be shooting more from in tight. He also is playing a different role at 5 on 5, I.e not dishing the push to Matthews at every opportunity.

As with most players, his ice-time and usage is a huge contributor to him getting more opportunities in better shooting locations. The bump from PP2 to PP1 is astronomical. The Leafs have one of the best individual units in the league. There's a cavernous difference between the minutes he's getting on the PP this year, and what he got in past years.

His improved play is not completely due to ice-time, of course. But he's gone from playing with Connor Brown and Patrick Marleau for a lot of last season (and all of the playoffs) to playing with either Matthews or Tavares all the time.

In any case, if he's getting this ice-time and usage, his contract will be a bargain. His numbers will significantly overperform it relative to other players. This year will just be Exhibit A.

 

[LeafsNation75]

 

[Ziggdiezan]

As with most players, his ice-time and usage is a huge contributor to him getting more opportunities in better shooting locations. The bump from PP2 to PP1 is astronomical. The Leafs have one of the best individual units in the league. There's a cavernous difference between the minutes he's getting on the PP this year, and what he got in past years.

His improved play is not completely due to ice-time, of course. But he's gone from playing with Connor Brown and Patrick Marleau then for a lot of last season (and all of the playoffs) to playing with either Matthews or Tavares all the time.

In any case, if he's getting this ice-time and usage, his contract will be a bargain. His numbers will significantly overperform it relative to other players. This year will just be Exhibit A.

I completely ignored Nylander's play for last season as it was a fluke due to contract reasons as well as obviously happened after his contract so shouldn't be included anyways. So him playing with Brown and Marleau then doesn't really apply into my thinking.

He was playing with Matthews on the 2nd unit so not a ordinary 2nd unit for his first two full seasons and it was more evenly split between PP1 and pp2 ice time as we know under Babcock. Marner's unit with JVR, Bozak, Kadri etc was really good though. I'm curious where you are getting that from as in his first full season (when his PP numbers were insane with Matthews on that 2nd unit) he played 2:24 minutes of PP per game while he is getting 2:57 this year. Not that high a difference.

Nylander's goals per minute are like double his next best at 5 on 5 this year while his assist totals are career average or even a little lower. I think this is due to a difference in role from playing away from Matthews where he always deferred the shot. It makes sense to put Marner with Matthews as he naturally does that anyways while Nylander's shooting was underutilized with Mathews. JT is also a natural playmaker so works well with Nylander as that line has two shooting options so are unpredictable. Matthews and Marner and are like Ovie/Backstrom-ish where you know where Matthews is and that it is going to him eventually but he always finds a spot to get open and Mitch is looking and waiting until he does.

I just dont get why people say Nylander is playing the way he always did at 5 on 5. He was always a very good player but this year he is playing more to his strengths and it is showing in a good way.

 

[Menzinger]

I completely ignored Nylander's play for last season as it was a fluke due to contract reasons as well as obviously happened after his contract so shouldn't be included anyways. So him playing with Brown and Marleau then doesn't really apply into my thinking.

He was playing with Matthews on the 2nd unit so not a ordinary 2nd unit for his first two full seasons and it was more evenly split between PP1 and pp2 ice time as we know under Babcock. Marner's unit with JVR, Bozak, Kadri etc was really good though. I'm curious where you are getting that from as in his first full season (when his PP numbers were insane with Matthews on that 2nd unit) he played 2:24 minutes of PP per game while he is getting 2:57 this year. Not that high a difference.

Nylander's goals per minute are like double his next best at 5 on 5 this year while his assist totals are career average or even a little lower. I think this is due to a difference in role from playing away from Matthews where he always deferred the shot. It makes sense to put Marner with Matthews as he naturally does that anyways while Nylander's shooting was underutilized with Mathews. JT is also a natural playmaker so works well with Nylander as that line has two shooting options so are unpredictable. Matthews and Marner and are like Ovie/Backstrom-ish where you know where Matthews is and that it is going to him eventually but he always finds a spot to get open and Mitch is looking and waiting until he does.

I just dont get why people say Nylander is playing the way he always did at 5 on 5. He was always a very good player but this year he is playing more to his strengths and it is showing in a good way.

A couplenthings:regarding the Pp, its not just overall toi but also linemates. Matthews is a boost, but the 1st unit also had the other main pp producers - and they were also often given first deployment which is a boost. Id suggest that most of Nylanders contract comparables tended to get more benificial pp usage than him

In terms of 5v5 - the broad criticism was that he was a "perimeter" player, but his overall shooting location data this season is really no different than his previous years. He isnt "going to the net" any more than his norm - the main difference this season is that hes converting more chances (likely due to improvement of shooting accuracy).

So there are things he has improved on this season - but those things arent really in line with how his critics framed his playing style in the past.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

A couplenthings:regarding thebPp, its not just overall toi but also linemates. Matthews is a boost, but the 1st unit also had the other main pp producers - and they were also often given first deployment which is a boost. Id suggest that most of Nylanders contract comparables tended to get more benificial pp usage than him

In terms of 5v5 - the broad criticism was that he was a "perimeter" player, but his overall shooting location data this season is really no different than his previous years. He isnt "going to the net" any more than his norm - the main difference this season is that hes converting more chances (likely due to improvement of shooting accuracy).

So there are things he has improved on this season - but those things arent really in line with how his critics framed his playing style in the past.

His best year by far on the PP was his 1st full year though, he produced an insane amount regardless of his minutes that weren't even that above a guy like Ehlers. It was a way better year statistically than this year in every way so I dont even really understand the comment that much about his PP play this year. It has been good, he is shooting a high percentage compared to his previous years which may or may not be sustainable but we will see.

I agree about shot selection improvement and had mentioned that it has been a lot better this year. Much more variety making him more unpredictable. This applies to both the PP and on 5 on 5. I also think part of his drastic increase in goals is a change in role due to different center as I mentioned and perhaps a different role on the PP too. I'm sure what shot maps your looking at but they have been quite different from what I can tell this year vs his first 2 full years. The goal heat map is even more telling with a very stark difference (IcyData » William Nylander Stats). A few key stats include:

2016, 2017,2019
Shots from low slot: 8%, 11%, 19%
Shots from higher slot: 24%, 34%, 35%
Shots from wide: 24%, 17%, 12%
Goals from low slot: 14%, 18%, 48%!!!
Goals from higher slot: 45%, 45%, 38%
Goals from wide: 14%, 9%, 5%

He is clearly shooting more from in tight and his is scoring way more from in tight while shooting and scoring less from out side so I'm not sure what to say. I don't really care what his hardcore critics says as people are so bias on here either way with their favorite players it is damn impossible to have a normal conversation.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

See, its things like this that is a little over the top.

30G 70P is certainly good value for 7M, but not a steal by any stretch of the imagination.

It's market value. No more, no less.

 

[Menzinger]

His best year by far on the PP was his 1st full year though, he produced an insane amount regardless of his minutes that weren't even that above a guy like Ehlers. It was a way better year statistically than this year in every way so I dont even really understand the comment that much about his PP play this year. It has been good, he is shooting a high percentage compared to his previous years which may or may not be sustainable but we will see.

I agree about shot selection improvement and had mentioned that it has been a lot better this year. Much more variety making him more unpredictable. This applies to both the PP and on 5 on 5. I also think part of his drastic increase in goals is a change in role due to different center as I mentioned and perhaps a different role on the PP too. I'm sure what shot maps your looking at but they have been quite different from what I can tell this year vs his first 2 full years. The goal heat map is even more telling with a very stark difference (IcyData » William Nylander Stats). A few key stats include:

2016, 2017,2019
Shots from low slot: 8%, 11%, 19%
Shots from higher slot: 24%, 34%, 35%
Shots from wide: 24%, 17%, 12%
Goals from low slot: 14%, 18%, 48%!!!
Goals from higher slot: 45%, 45%, 38%
Goals from wide: 14%, 9%, 5%

He is clearly shooting more from in tight and his is scoring way more from in tight while shooting and scoring less from out side so I'm not sure what to say. I don't really care what his hardcore critics says as people are so bias on here either way with their favorite players it is damn impossible to have a normal conversation.

The most significant difference in that shooting data though comes from his ability to convert more often than in the past. Hes shooting a bit more in the lower slot, but that's it as far as major shot location differences goes.

 

[LeafsNation75]

So far tonight the only positive was Nylander matching his career high in goals with his 22nd.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

So far tonight the only positive was Nylander matching his career high in goals with his 22nd.

Nice snipe

 

[Maplebeasts]

Best player on the ice for the Leafs tonight. He's been absolutely incredible this season.

 

[Petrus]

Has Nylander been the most consistent player all season?

He also seems to always gain possession of the puck when battling along the boards.

 

[Stephen]

Best player on the ice for the Leafs tonight. He's been absolutely incredible this season.

It's weird how Nylander can be flying high on a line with Tavares, who is struggling at the same time.

But those Pastrnak-like abilities are on display on a nightly basis and it's been great to see it.