Will Ovechkin hit 20 goals this season?

[Bear of Bad News]

The very goal in question, is allowed hundreds of times a year. Waving this one off is the inconsistency.

I'm not claiming that officiating is currently consistent.

I'm saying that the three things the other poster suggests are obvious to explicitly consider when making an officiating decision should under no circumstances be considered.

 

[wetcoast]

The very goal in question, is allowed hundreds of times a year. Waving this one off is the inconsistency.

The fact of the matter is that many people are confusing similar with unique.

The fact of the matter is that each and every goal is unique that's in part why some are called no goals and most are goals, it's the differences.

All goals matter.

 

[Doc McKenna]

At 00:12 the body of the Caps player bumps into the goaltenders shoulder, just before Ovie shoots the puck. And its clearly Dowd moving into the goaltender. Its the same time the right skate of Dowd is in the crease.

Looks like a good goal...but its the NHL so nothing ever is consistent, and they don't care if it was.

 

[mrv52]

I'm not claiming that officiating is currently consistent.

I'm saying that the three things the other poster suggests are obvious to explicitly consider when making an officiating decision should under no circumstances be considered.

Where did I say that?

 

[MadLuke]

I don't think that you realize that AI would have a 3d 360 overall view of everything.

It would fundamentally change the way the game is played and the whole idea of sports is about man to man competition and using other men as referees.

AI (the current popular implementation that people tend to mean right now when they say AI) would be trained with human referee data (did they on similar play call or not a penalty) and would micmic a lot of the same tendancy.

A computer with hardcoded rules instead (that automatically call stuff without "judgment") could be a bigger change.

Some sport seem just too hard and you probably want game management (hockey-basket-soccer) going on, some other baseball-tennis seem more possible, but even then.... AI trained on human would have those tendency if we want, it would take is there call imbalance, overtime, playoff, etc... if those info are in the dataset.

 

[HabsCode]

AI would be trained with human referee data (did they on similar play call or not a penalty) and would micmic a lot of the same tendancy.

A computer with hardcoded rules instead (that automatically call stuff without "judgment") could be a bigger change.

Some sport seem just too hard and you probably want game management (hockey-basket-soccer) going on, some other baseball-tennis seem more possible, but even then.... AI trained on human would have those tendency if we want, it would take is there call imbalance, overtime, playoff, etc... if those info are in the dataset.

Depends if the bias of the imbalanced call are rare or not. Say the data sets contains 3 weird call every 100 calls, they might gets excluded during training, building a more reliant and consistent model. But general consensus is that calls are often biased and inconsistent so you are right that the AI might be biased too.

But I doubt the NHL would just train model with unsupervised data. Otherwise AI might find weird correlation like jersey color or player physical attribute. They might feed him tons of pre recorded play deemed fair or not by the book rules.

Edit: just read the computer with hard coded part, yes.

 

[ijuka]

Looks like a good goal...but its the NHL so nothing ever is consistent, and they don't care if it was.

I think they could call that goalie interference.

But earlier in the season, a player(I forgot whose goal this was and against whom, sadly) had his stick behind the goalie's elbow and skated through the crease and then essentially dragged the goalie with him past the net for like 5 feet. And that was NOT goalie interference.

So considering that, some of these calls have been wildly inconsistent.

 

[lokomotiv15]

Jagr scored 120 goals in the NHL after turning 38, Selanne scored 132 goals in the NHL after turning 38. Ovechkin has only scored 7 goals so far after turning 38, but everybody on HF Boards agrees that Ovechkin is a better goal scoere than Jagr and Selanne. So realistically Ovechkin should have atleast another 140-150 goals in him before it's all said and done.

I mean, that’s fair.

 

[norrisnick]

I don't think that you realize that AI would have a 3d 360 overall view of everything.

It would fundamentally change the way the game is played and the whole idea of sports is about man to man competition and using other men as referees.

Not everything needs technology in our medieval minds as we aren't very good at handling it.

I realize that AI would have a full view of everything. That's a good thing, not a bad thing.

There is nothing about competition between people that necessitates flawed judgement calls by other people. All that does is get in the way between the competitors.

The medieval minds are the problem. Slap the stripes on the AI and take that variable out of the equation and let the hockey players determine the outcome.

 

[The Grim Reaper]

Where did I say that?

“Is this the NHL' s intent with the product?”

 

[mrv52]

“Is this the NHL' s intent with the product?”

Strike one.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Where did I say that?

You painted a lovely word picture to appeal to our emotions.

 

[Dessloch]

The rule is subjective, whether you agree with it or not. I have made no statement one way or the other.

You can put this situation in any NHL barn and its still the same. The on ice product from the last minute of play, the entire OT, and the resulting skills competition was a garbage product. Last night was because someone in a media room in Toronto made a judgement call and is what this specific game will be remembered for. Is this the crap the NHL wants to put forward?

Well, so you are suggesting Ovechkins goal should have counted to keep a franchise player & home fans happy?

What would happen if the next time Nashville faces Caps at home the exact same play happens again. Do you suggest they negate the goal that time around to keep Predators fans happy?

And how do you expect anyone to take the league seriously if it would not enforce their own rules to keep the game fair but to keep certain players and fans happy?

 

[mrv52]

Well, so you are suggesting Ovechkins goal should have counted to keep a franchise player & home fans happy?

What would happen if the next time Nashville faces Caps at home the exact same play happens again. Do you suggest they negate the goal that time around to keep Predators fans happy?

And how do you expect anyone to take the league seriously if it would not enforce their own rules to keep the game fair but to keep certain players and fans happy?

What is more appealing for the fans and the overall interest in the league? A GWG within the circumstances I illustrated or a judgement call from a booth in Toronto? IMO, the byproduct of this resulted in a garbage product, which I also illustrated. Im OK being in the minority here.

 

[mrv52]

You painted a lovely word picture to appeal to our emotions.

With all due respect, you are a moderator here and appear to have issues with nuance. I made zero comment on the call, only the byproduct. If that preys on your emotions it only proves my point.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

With all due respect, you are a moderator here and appear to have issues with nuance. I made zero comment on the call, only the byproduct. If that preys on your emotions it only proves my point.

Explain what you meant better, then. My role on the site has nothing to do with this. “With all due respect”.

You were clearly suggesting that the officials should play to the audience. Even just now in your response above.

 

[The Grim Reaper]

Strike one.

Maybe you’re not intending to, but you’ve now suggested several times that the story is more important than the rules of the game.

 

[Ms Maggie]

Back to topic: will he? Not likely based on current production.

 

[TooManyHumans]

I said 90%+ and that isn't an exact figure. It was to illustrate they will get it right the vast majority of the times.

That "<10%" also comprises the grey areas because of the nature of the game, and the technical limitations the NHL has.

Given that, even 10% of subjective/bad calls isn't too bad. It's not a life or death situation where you need 99.9% certainty or something. You'll never achieve that as long as there's some room for interpretation (hence the grey areas) on a rule.

It comes across as completely arbitrary. No one knows what they will rule until they announce their decision.

 

[K Fleur]

Five pages of discussion about a single overturned goal for a guy that’s scored 800+ in his career.

Dude must be playing really shitty if it’s coming to that.

 

[Crosbyfan]

Back to topic: will he? Not likely based on current production.

I would say it is fairly close to 50/50 to hit 20 this year and also about that to get the record.
I'm pretty sure I'm about half right....

 

[Kairi Zaide]

It comes across as completely arbitrary. No one knows what they will rule until they announce their decision.

What "most" feel like is sort of irrelevant as, as I said before, the rule is not well understood by fans (or even known). A lot of us learn the rules "as we go" and while listening to (sometimes clueless) TV announcers, rather than by actually reading the rulebook. So our understanding of a rule can often come from a mixture of past experience and several level of interpretations (A read it and explained it to B who explained it to C who explained it to D and so on - you lose information and introduce falsehoods as you go deeper in that chain).

Here's an article that DGB published in 2021 exposing some of this stuff.

Down Goes Brown: Read this post and you'll understand (almost) every goaltender interference review

Our goal is to get you to accurately predict a goaltender interference review result maybe 80 or 90 percent of the time.

theathletic.com

 

[max21]

Five pages of discussion about a single overturned goal for a guy that’s scored 800+ in his career.

Dude must be playing really shitty if it’s coming to that.

Here we have an example of yet another Penguins fan chiming in to discredit Ovechkin. If you’ve read this thread you’ll notice a theme where majority of the comments come from Pittsburgh fans.

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

Caps fans- what happened to Ovi’s office? I assumed he’d be hittin 15+ on the pp for forever.

 

[K Fleur]

Here we have an example of yet another Penguins fan chiming in to discredit Ovechkin. If you’ve read this thread you’ll notice a theme where majority of the comments come from Pittsburgh fans.

Lol

Maxwell you need to hit the books if you read my post and concluded that it was “chiming in to discredit Ovechkin”