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Will Ovechkin hit 20 goals this season?

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HTFN said:
The point is pretty clearly that the margin for error in a lot of cases has been really slim and if even a few bounces worked or seconds lined up, he'd be sitting on a goal number nobody questioned at all.
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But the same can be said for every other player.
 
Toby91ca said:
But the same can be said for every other player.
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Every other player isn't getting called "cooked" because "look at the stats", it usually comes up more often when that's happening. What's your problem with eyeballing how many close calls and overturned offsides goals for a scoring player before making conclusions?

No, they don't count but they're invisible "stats" that indicate the process itself hasn't fully broken down
 
HTFN said:
Every other player isn't getting called "cooked" because "look at the stats", it usually comes up more often when that's happening. What's your problem with eyeballing how many close calls and overturned offsides goals for a scoring player before making conclusions?

No, they don't count but they're invisible "stats" that indicate the process itself hasn't fully broken down
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That's the thing though.....I don't know if he's "cooked" or not, but I watch him play and he looks incredibly slow, the stats then back that up.....has nothing to do with simply looking at stats...for me anyway. I'll say this as well....some of of the goals or assists he's accumulated this year, some of the ones I saw, don't look like good plays at all....but I wouldn't raise that as a point because EVERY SINGLE player has those types of points. The only thing I consider when I see something like that though is......does that play indicate he's coming around....and to me, no it doesn't because it's the type of point that happens from time to time. The last goal he scored seemed to be reminiscent of his old self though.....but I didn't see that game, just watched highlights.
 
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Toby91ca said:
That's the thing though.....I don't know if he's "cooked" or not, but I watch him play and he looks incredibly slow, the stats then back that up.....has nothing to do with simply looking at stats...for me anyway. I'll say this as well....some of of the goals or assists he's accumulated this year, some of the ones I saw, don't look like good plays at all....but I wouldn't raise that as a point because EVERY SINGLE player has those types of points. The only thing I consider when I see something like that though is......does that play indicate he's coming around....and to me, no it doesn't because it's the type of point that happens from time to time. The last goal he scored seemed to be reminiscent of his old self though.....but I didn't see that game, just watched highlights.
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We're going to go in a full circle though, because that was the point of bringing up the disallowed goals in the first place. You didn't see the game, you just watched highlights, but what you're looking for is indications that his play is "coming around".... you know what would suggest that? A couple disallowed goals that went to offside review and don't make good highlight content, or a few rips off the post. When fans watching the games tell you there are like 3 goals missing just because Tom Wilson had to apparently re-learn the rules this year on top of the Dowd "interference" and a few dingers off the iron, well... like I said, it hints that the process is better than the pace.

Yeah, every player has those times, but not every player has the pedigree of being 2nd all time in goals and they don't all get new season-long main boards thread every year for at least the last decade. It's gonna come up in these threads.
 
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mrv52 said:
Saturday night. Holidays. Full building of fans. Hall of famer face of franchise scores with 1 minute left. Crowd goes crazy. Situation room overturns goal. Crowd pissed. Disjointed OT period with PP waiting for whistle. Then home team loses in a skills competition. Home crowd goes home pissed. Is this the NHL' s intent with the product? For those that also watched the Cowboys/Lions finish it is the same thing really.
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Tuesday night. New year. Full building of fans. Jobber scores to break 3-0 hole. Crowd cheers. Coach challenges goal. Hall of famer face of franchise called offsides by an inch. Crowd pissed. Rest of the game continues. Is this the NHL’s intent with the product?
 
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powerbomb said:
Tuesday night. New year. Full building of fans. Jobber scores to break 3-0 hole. Crowd cheers. Coach challenges goal. Hall of famer face of franchise called offsides by an inch. Crowd pissed. Rest of the game continues. Is this the NHL’s intent with the product?
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Hopefully not because its garbage.
 
Would be surprised if he didnt get 20+. Ovechkin have been incredibily snakebitten and only 6,2 % shooting percentage (Last 5 years: 14,3 % - 15 % - 13,2 % - 15,4 % - 15,1 % average 14,7 %). Hes no longer a 50+ scorer, but with his average shooting percentage over the last 5 years he would have had around 19 goals so far.

Then there definetely could be some problems with his shot and that it isnt the same so its natural decline in goalscoring. His shot power is still around the same so then the question is if he is no longer able to put the puck in the top corner etc and instead are hitting straight at the goalie or if he doesnt get of the shot fast enough letting the goalie get in place.

Still even with decline 6,2 % seems low and with a increase to like 10 % he should look at 25-30 goals this year.
 
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SherVaughn30 said:
(I haven't even included the amount of posts and crossbars OV has hit)
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Everyone hit posts or crossbars, and it's usually because your aiming is slightly off. I think Tage Thompson for instance would have pushed close to 60 goals last season if you counted all the posts or crossbars, that doesn't make him a 60 goal scorer. You can't just count posts/crossbars for your favourite player and somehow assume these should have been goals.
 
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HTFN said:
We're going to go in a full circle though, because that was the point of bringing up the disallowed goals in the first place. You didn't see the game, you just watched highlights, but what you're looking for is indications that his play is "coming around".... you know what would suggest that? A couple disallowed goals that went to offside review and don't make good highlight content, or a few rips off the post. When fans watching the games tell you there are like 3 goals missing just because Tom Wilson had to apparently re-learn the rules this year on top of the Dowd "interference" and a few dingers off the iron, well... like I said, it hints that the process is better than the pace.

Yeah, every player has those times, but not every player has the pedigree of being 2nd all time in goals and they don't all get new season-long main boards thread every year for at least the last decade. It's gonna come up in these threads.
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You missed the full context, my reference to not seeing the game was with respect to the goal he scored which looked pretty good….i just saw highlights, so wasn’t sure if that was any indication, was he dangerous all night, etc. I’ve watched several of his games this year and he has looked really bad if I’m being honest…I don’t care what the stats say. Maybe he’s looked really good in the games I haven’t seen, but that’s where I’d suggest, based on what I’ve seen and the stats in the other games I haven’t seen….i doubt he’s looked good, but I can’t really say for sure.
 
sr edler said:
Everyone hit posts or crossbars, and it's usually because your aiming is slightly off. I think Tage Thompson for instance would have pushed close to 60 goals last season if you counted all the posts or crossbars, that doesn't make him a 60 goal scorer. You can't just count posts/crossbars for your favourite player and somehow assume these should have been goals.
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Isn't about counting goals, it's about whether the process is there. I'm not going to use real stats for this part because it technically doesn't matter for the hypothetical, we can replace the player if necessary with something more accurate:

Thompson had a great last few years, so if other fans were to come in and say he was a fluke who got lucky and he's proving that right now you might excuse Sabres fans for pulling a "well actually" and suggesting that he's not doing much different, just not seeing the same results. Shooting percentage and a couple of posts can make a big perceived difference but the people regularly watching might know how close that number really is to reflecting whether he's a 30 goal guy who got lucky or a 40+ goal guy getting unlucky right now.

If it were to become a long term problem maybe it gets addressed, but 30 games is a pretty reasonable window to look at bounces and see if the process needs correcting or if the luck needs evened out.
 
ucanthanzalthetruth said:
#8 potted #8
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Now we can slog through the next 8.

sr edler said:
Everyone hit posts or crossbars, and it's usually because your aiming is slightly off. I think Tage Thompson for instance would have pushed close to 60 goals last season if you counted all the posts or crossbars, that doesn't make him a 60 goal scorer. You can't just count posts/crossbars for your favourite player and somehow assume these should have been goals.
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I looked up the stats for posts and crossbars on NHL.com and it doesn't really help his case but I'm on my phone so I'll have to post them later.
 
#9 today

Still see 30-35 by years end

Hes the GOAT goal scorer for a reason

If he had maintained his prime play making abilities he'd be #3 or 4 all time

He is 9th to 13th range as is for me
 
filinski77 said:
It’s non-contributing backhanded comments like this that give you a rep for being completely biased against Ovi.
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Frankly I don't really care, if people have a critical look at Ovechkin in his career then they are vilified by a few posters adnauseam anyway.

Also his usage this year compared to his actual production and play has become embarrassing.
 
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filinski77 said:
It’s non-contributing backhanded comments like this that give you a rep for being completely biased against Ovi.
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Also with the talk of crossbars and post Ovi has 3 posts and 1 crossbar and is in the lower half of each category.

Facts matter.
 
wetcoast said:
Also his usage this year compared to his actual production and play has become embarrassing.
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Well Ovechkin still leads his team in points with 24 points in 36 games and he doesn't even get the most icetime of all the forwards: NHL Stats
Ovechkin's icetime is actually down this year compared to the amount he usually plays.
 
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Mulletman said:
Well Ovechkin still leads his team in points with 24 points in 36 games and he doesn't even get the most icetime of all the forwards: NHL Stats
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Man you are so right Kuz plays a whole 3 seconds more per game.

But I whole outmullet you Mulletman.

But Ovi plays 7 seconds more at ES and Kuz plays 1:58 SH.
https://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?r...&sort=points,goals,assists&page=0&pageSize=50
Mulletman said:
Ovechkin's icetime is actually down this year compared to the amount he usually plays.
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Well given his production......... why wouldn't it be?
 
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