Will Ovechkin hit 20 goals this season?

[Rodgerwilco]

This seems like a post I would get an infraction for ngl

At least half of that exchange would give any of us an infraction with this message in our inbox:

Posting Rules:

1) Flaming: Critique the opinion, not the person. Personal attacks against members are not permitted. Report flaming, do not respond to it. Counter-flaming is also prohibited.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Try not reading it in isolation.

So if I get flamed first I can flame back, good to know!

 

[Bear of Bad News]

So if I get flamed first I can flame back, good to know!

Repeating his claim that I have an undeveloped mind (and that his is obviously more developed) is borderline, I agree.

I wasn't going to infract him for the obvious attack on me, if that's what you're asking (or for the ones following).

Anyone else wants to talk about this, feel free to PM me.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Repeating his claim that I have an undeveloped mind (and that his is obviously more developed) is borderline, I agree.

I wasn't going to infract him for the obvious attack on me, if that's what you're asking (or for the ones following).

Nah just wondering where the line is because I can’t stop getting busted lol

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Nah just wondering where the line is because I can’t stop getting busted lol

I have an opinion on whether the line was crossed here - and I also know that I'm biased (and not a fan of someone saying that the reason they disagree with me is because I have the intellect of a child).

If another staff member wants to come along and nail us both, that's fine.

 

[T REX]

It does change how goals are counted, it assigns a value over or under 1.0 based on league averages during that season



There are interesting cases where teasing out an argument concerning who had a better season, where I think adjusting stats may be appropriate. I think I’ve given the impression where I think they have no value at all. That’s probably due to where I choose to weigh in and on what examples I choose to weigh in on.

Ovechkin’s entire career being adjusted up while Gretzky’s entire career is adjusted down is one of those miscast cases of using adjusted stats to make an argument. I often argue that the stars change the game, and I believe they do. I believe that Gretzky, for example, caused the leagues scoring to go through the roof. And without Gretzky we wouldn’t have seen the hockey we did in the 80’s, and we wouldn’t see the scoring.

Simply by existing, Gretzky changed the league and everything in it. It wasn’t the other way around. That’s my problem with it. Adjusting stats this way assumes that Gretzky’s numbers were a result of the environment of the league. That’s obviously not true, because even his atom numbers are absolutely astronomical. His peewee games were in the newspaper and selling out local arenas, didn’t he score 300 points against kids significantly older than him?

How is the argument that “Gretzky benefitted from a higher scoring era” even on the table? It wasn’t an era before Gretzky made it one

I’m saying Gretzky brought that environment to the league and should be credited for it. In the nature vs nurture debate of NHL hockey, Gretzky wasn’t a product of the nurturing of the league, his nature changed the entire league.



Usually bigger number does point to being better. Like with Gretzky

Bellows maybe can be argued was a product of his environment, but I don’t see how anyone can argue that Gretzky was.

Same today with Matthews, or McDavid. They’re creating a higher scoring era

Crosby didn’t, etc

fantastic post and reasoning...thanks

 

[wetcoast]

Both of those stats are also correlated to Gretzky/Lemieux and Matthews/McDavid’s career’s

My guess is that you don't know what the term correlated means, here is the definition

"have a mutual relationship or connection, in which one thing affects or depends on another."

Your assertion is entirely subjective in the sense if that one removes the 5 players and just put in the average NHLer in each year the total impact, ie number of goals per game per team across the league still comes up really short

Now unless one thinks that Mack suddenly got better because AM and McDavid whispered in his ear to do so or they bumped shoulders in the offseason and then dispelled some of their superpowers on Mack......see where it goes?

Gpg started going up and save percentage started going down once McDavid and Matthews (et al) came and put their stamp on the game

Scoring goes up or down mostly due to league changes either in rules or style of play and especially the size of the goalie equipment more than any single player or even duos like Wayne and Mario.

 

[Midnight Judges]

And talking about 2011-12, let's be honest, the biggest value the Capitals got from anything that year (and the 5 years prior) was playing in the SouthLeast Division, amirite?

Yeah I remember - no doubt lots of Canadians and Pens fans constantly made the assertion that the Capitals couldn't compete head to head with the Penguins in a division.

Then you all got your wish, except the Capitals beat the Penguins in the standings in 7 of the first 8 seasons. Whoops.

 

[Beau Knows]

He plays in St. Louis tomorrow night, he's lit them up in his career. Maybe this is where he pots a couple and goes on a run.

 

[Strangle]

My guess is that you don't know what the term correlated means, here is the definition

"have a mutual relationship or connection, in which one thing affects or depends on another."

Your assertion is entirely subjective in the sense if that one removes the 5 players and just put in the average NHLer in each year the total impact, ie number of goals per game per team across the league still comes up really short

Now unless one thinks that Mack suddenly got better because AM and McDavid whispered in his ear to do so or they bumped shoulders in the offseason and then dispelled some of their superpowers on Mack......see where it goes?

Scoring goes up or down mostly due to league changes either in rules or style of play and especially the size of the goalie equipment more than any single player or even duos like Wayne and Mario.

It’s all subjective, no matter the way you look at it.

If you think the environment of peewee hockey in Canada produced a 500 point phenom who was then lucky enough for conditions to be just right in the NHL for that dominance to continue, then you’re being foolish.

The main flaw and the easiest to smack down, and the one that no one will attempt to argue against, is that talent discrepancies exist. Groups of talent discrepancies exist, and some groups of players are just better performers than others.

Beginning with the idea that NHL talent should be normalized is the original sin of era adjusted stats.

Outliers exist and sometimes extreme outliers exist. Attempting to normalize these extreme (and rare) outliers is a fools errand.

And it leads to ridiculous arguments where fans are debating seasons 3 or 4 years apart and pointing to gpg discrepancies and claiming that explains anything. It doesn’t explain anything though.

If Matthews scores 70 goals this year, they’ll be someone who argues that because goals are magically up league-wide it’s an equivalent 50 goals season from 2018 or something ridiculous like that.

But that person will never be able to predict next years GPG average, even knowing all of the variables that they’ll use to explain retroactively why gpg were up or down in a previous season.

Because this kind of thing is subjective, if it was objective people could predict next years gpg average. We know the goalie equipment size, we know the rule set, etc we have all the info we claim matters. If it was objective, it would be predictive and not retroactive.

What you’re doing is looking at the end results and then trying to find excuses or reasons for it happening.

 

[daver]

It’s all subjective, no matter the way you look at it.

If you think the environment of peewee hockey in Canada produced a 500 point phenom who was then lucky enough for conditions to be just right in the NHL for that dominance to continue, then you’re being foolish.

The main flaw and the easiest to smack down, and the one that no one will attempt to argue against, is that talent discrepancies exist. Groups of talent discrepancies exist, and some groups of players are just better performers than others.

Beginning with the idea that NHL talent should be normalized is the original sin of era adjusted stats.

Outliers exist and sometimes extreme outliers exist. Attempting to normalize these extreme (and rare) outliers is a fools errand.

And it leads to ridiculous arguments where fans are debating seasons 3 or 4 years apart and pointing to gpg discrepancies and claiming that explains anything. It doesn’t explain anything though.

If Matthews scores 70 goals this year, they’ll be someone who argues that because goals are magically up league-wide it’s an equivalent 50 goals season from 2018 or something ridiculous like that.

But that person will never be able to predict next years GPG average, even knowing all of the variables that they’ll use to explain retroactively why gpg were up or down in a previous season.

Because this kind of thing is subjective, if it was objective people could predict next years gpg average. We know the goalie equipment size, we know the rule set, etc we have all the info we claim matters. If it was objective, it would be predictive and not retroactive.

What you’re doing is looking at the end results and then trying to find excuses or reasons for it happening.

Can you please rank these three seasons from best to worst:

McDavid in 16/17 (100 points)
Huberdeau in 21/22 (115 points)
Gaudreau in 21/22 (115 points)

 

[Hank Plank]

If another staff member wants to come along and nail us both, that's fine.

You're fired.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

You're fired.

Do I have to stay until the end of the day or can I leave now?

 

[Hank Plank]

Do I have to stay until the end of the day or can I leave now?

Security is on their way.

 

[Strangle]

I actually found it pretty amusing to see an admin / mod having a shitfight with somebody on here.

Don't see that every day!

Bad news and the rest of the mods/etc have always been very fair IMO

(And I can’t make threads or like posts since like October. I don’t think I get it back until sometime in February)

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Hopefully your brain doesn't get called young and underdeveloped.

If my brain becomes young and underdeveloped, hopefully that means I get all my hair back.

 

[Hivemind]

Try not reading it in isolation.

I did. They apologized to you in their second post on the topic. Yet you continued to fling mud. Anyone without a mod badge would have absolutely been warned for that type of behavior.

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

So. About Ovechkin.

 

[The Grim Reaper]

I did. They apologized to you in their second post on the topic. Yet you continued to fling mud. Anyone without a mod badge would have absolutely been warned for that type of behavior.

Oh no, anyway…

 

[lokomotiv15]

Yeah I remember - no doubt lots of Canadians and Pens fans constantly made the assertion that the Capitals couldn't compete head to head with the Penguins in a division.

Then you all got your wish, except the Capitals beat the Penguins in the standings in 7 of the first 8 seasons. Whoops.

I’m sure all the Pens fans would take 3 out of 4 in the playoffs since the lock out vs 7 of 8 in the Standings, though. Wouldn’t you?

 

[Leonardo87]

Hey Folks,

Since this thread has really gone off tangent for pages now going to lock this up. Thank you.