Will Ovechkin hit 20 goals this season?

[Strangle]

If you're going to insist on equating my point to something a "young and underdeveloped brain" would come up with, then GTFO with the personal attacks.

f*** that.

No, that’s literally a true story not a personal attack. I remember thinking that

I wasn’t intending to personally attack you, but I see how it could look like that

My bad

 

[Bear of Bad News]

No, that’s literally a true story not a personal attack. I remember thinking that

I wasn’t intending to personally attack you, but I see how it could look like that

My bad

Gosh, thanks.

"Hey, I remember this time that I was a dipshit and it made me think of you. No need to take offense, but I can see how you might feel like it's an attack."

 

[Strangle]

Gosh, thanks.

"Hey, I remember this time that I was a dipshit and it make me think of you. No need to take offense, but I can see how you might feel like it's an attack."

I can’t tell if this is legitimate or if it’s passive aggressive and condescending

But I now agree that things are getting off track. I don’t have any personal feelings about you or this diecussion

 

[Bear of Bad News]

I can’t tell if this is legitimate or if it’s passive aggressive and condescending

Sorry, I've got an underdeveloped brain so can't really help you out.

If your brain develops further and you get an insight, let us know.

 

[The Grim Reaper]

 

[The Grim Reaper]

They're talking about the 11-12 season where Ovechkin had 65 points in 78 games. Crosby's never had a season that poor.

Pretty sure we can chalk that up to Dale Hunter; similar to the Mike Johnston era for Crosby.

 

[Strangle]

Sorry, I've got an underdeveloped brain so can't really help you out.

If your brain develops further and you get an insight, let us know.

Well, you can’t complain about people taking shots at you I guess.

I was taking the high road, and you just drug us down into the mud again.

Good job

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Well, you can’t complain about people taking shots at you I guess.

I was taking the high road, and you just drug us down into the mud again.

"Hey, forget about that time a few minutes ago when I equated you to an immature dipshit. Take the high road with me!"

WHY ARE YOU DRAGGING US DOWN INTO THE MUD!!!

 

[Strangle]

"Hey, forget about that time a few minutes ago when I equated you to an immature dipshit. Take the high road with me!"

WHY ARE YOU DRAGGING US DOWN INTO THE MUD!!!

I’d do this with you if I thought you could handle it. But I’ve been banned from enough websites to know an invitation isn’t always as welcoming as it seems.

So have fun, see ya later

 

[Bear of Bad News]

I’d do this with you if I thought you could handle it. But I’ve been banned from enough websites to know an invitation isn’t always as welcoming as it seems.

So have fun, see ya later

Take care.

 

[wetcoast]

Sure he has. Crosby scored a paltry 37 points that very same season.

The question wasn't points in a season it was never had a season that poor.

If 37 points in 22 games is a lesser level of play that 65 points in 78 games then you are just totally out to lunch.

Ovechkin could have sat out with his injuries, but he played through them and added value to his team. This idea that you would hold him in higher regard had he sat out runs counter to real life.

No one is holding Crosby's 37 point season in a higher regard than it was, simply put he played at an elite level for the 22 games he dressed and Ovi didn't.

No player in history is measured by their worst seasons, except for the much-hated Ovechkin of course. No Canadian or Pens fan ever brings up Bobby Hull's 56 points at age 22, or Gordie Howe's 62 points at age 26, or Sidney Crosby scoring at a .89 PPG and .31 GPG in 62 playoff games from age 24-28.

No players shouldn't be measure only by their worst seasons, nor should they be compared only to their best seasons all players should be compared by EVERYTHING and both their strengths and weaknesses, high points and low points and then consider context which is part of the EVERYTHING.

But instead you like to cherry-pick and look at what you want and then lack consistency as demonstrated by your posting history best exemplified by this Canadian garbage false narrative among others.

But let's get back to the topic of the thread and Ovi's quest for 20 goals as he is currently tied for 185th with his 8 goals and plays again on Sunday when other 8 goal scorers have passed him eh?

Kind of reminds me of the year when everyone was on edge wondering if Dave Andreychcuk could pass passed Joe Sakic in goals scored at the age of 40....those were the days eh?

 

[The Hockey Tonk Man]

Gotta think he'll tuck 20.
Haven't watched any Caps game this year. Wild he's at 8 goals through 40 games.

 

[Jeune Poulet]

If you think scoring a goal in a league where the average team scores 2.7 goals per game is the same as scoring a goal in a league where the average team scores 4 goals per game, then I don't know what to tell you.

You are cherry picking the one single year the average reached 4 gpg.

In reality:

The average team scored 2.85 gpg during Ovechkin's career
The average team scored 3.49 gpg during Gretzky's career

Not quite the gap you are making it out to be. And at one point, people can't just blame goalies for the difference in scoring... they have to credit the offensive players of the 80s era who are absolute legends.

Face it. Guys like Gretzky and Lemieux tower over Ovechkin, who would have been just one of the surrounding cast (Messier, Bossy, Dionne, Lafleur, Hull, Savard, Bure, Yzerman, etc... )

We got spoiled back then with many creative offensive guys who were doing more than parking their butt near the faceoff circle to unload one-timers. Consequently, the gpg was higher.

 

[Strangle]

"Why anyone would feel the need to change someone’s mind about how goals are counted just flies way above my head. We have the stats."
Nobody is changing how goals are counted. The issues are when ignorant people go "wow bigger number better, so player better"

It does change how goals are counted, it assigns a value over or under 1.0 based on league averages during that season

"What purpose does adjusted stats have, other than to normalize NHL scoring against a median and why do people think NHL goals need to be normalized to begin with?" It's for comparability purposes. For example: we all know that 88 points is more than 87 points. But Brian Bellows 88 points in 1993 when he finished 34th in league scoring is nowhere near as good as Jamie Benn's 1st place finish in 2015 of 87 points.

There are interesting cases where teasing out an argument concerning who had a better season, where I think adjusting stats may be appropriate. I think I’ve given the impression where I think they have no value at all. That’s probably due to where I choose to weigh in and on what examples I choose to weigh in on.

Ovechkin’s entire career being adjusted up while Gretzky’s entire career is adjusted down is one of those miscast cases of using adjusted stats to make an argument. I often argue that the stars change the game, and I believe they do. I believe that Gretzky, for example, caused the leagues scoring to go through the roof. And without Gretzky we wouldn’t have seen the hockey we did in the 80’s, and we wouldn’t see the scoring.

Simply by existing, Gretzky changed the league and everything in it. It wasn’t the other way around. That’s my problem with it. Adjusting stats this way assumes that Gretzky’s numbers were a result of the environment of the league. That’s obviously not true, because even his atom numbers are absolutely astronomical. His peewee games were in the newspaper and selling out local arenas, didn’t he score 300 points against kids significantly older than him?

How is the argument that “Gretzky benefitted from a higher scoring era” even on the table? It wasn’t an era before Gretzky made it one

I’m saying Gretzky brought that environment to the league and should be credited for it. In the nature vs nurture debate of NHL hockey, Gretzky wasn’t a product of the nurturing of the league, his nature changed the entire league.

The crowd (like yourself) that refuses to acknowledge any sort of adjusted context is admitting the opposite of the above example. It's completely ludicrous.

TLDR: Bigger number =/= better.

Usually bigger number does point to being better. Like with Gretzky

Bellows maybe can be argued was a product of his environment, but I don’t see how anyone can argue that Gretzky was.

Same today with Matthews, or McDavid. They’re creating a higher scoring era

Crosby didn’t, etc

 

[Midnight Judges]

You are cherry picking the one single year the average reached 4 gpg.

No, I'm not. The poster simply doesn't believe in any adjustments at all, ever. I was simply making a point by using the extreme case.

I am well-aware of what the exact averages are for Ovechkin's career vs Gretzky's. That data is readily available.

Agree, Gretzky towers over everyone. Lemieux doesn't though.

 

[daver]

Same today with Matthews, or McDavid. They’re creating a higher scoring era

Crosby didn’t, etc

NHL League Averages | Hockey-Reference.com

Check out the latest NHL League Averages including shots, saves, goal averages and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

There is a direct correlation between sv% and league gpg. One or two players cannot influence league gpg.

 

[lokomotiv15]

Sure he has. Crosby scored a paltry 37 points that very same season.

Ovechkin could have sat out with his injuries, but he played through them and added value to his team. This idea that you would hold him in higher regard had he sat out runs counter to real life.

No player in history is measured by their worst seasons, except for the much-hated Ovechkin of course. No Canadian or Pens fan ever brings up Bobby Hull's 56 points at age 22, or Gordie Howe's 62 points at age 26, or Sidney Crosby scoring at a .89 PPG and .31 GPG in 62 playoff games from age 24-28.

And talking about 2011-12, let's be honest, the biggest value the Capitals got from anything that year (and the 5 years prior) was playing in the SouthLeast Division, amirite?

Edit: For the record, before I'm called an Ovie hater, I said about 35 pages ago that I'd eat my hat if Ovechkin didn't score 20 and be shocked if he didn't hit 30. Hope I don't have to sharpen my knife for this one...

 

[coooldude]

Some actual data would be useful and relevant to both debates (is he the best scorer of all time and is he going to break the record).

Ovie's shot (and goal) charts over the years (this thread has charts thru 2019) show a player who used to shoot and score all over the ice. The player we all know and love and many fell in love with - crazy goal scorer who also threw his huge mass all over the ice with wanton abandon. The "Ovie Spot" has been there since 2007-08 but didn't become his predominant shooting spot until around 2011, when it was "low slot" or "ovie spot". That moved around for a few years as he scored goals from slot, top of circles, etc. In 2015, he would score from his Spot, the mirror top circle spot on the right, and also the low slot. By 2016, he was taking residence in the Spot and by 2019 there wasn't much happening outside the Spot. Can't make / too lazy to google what this has looked like in 2020-22.

The upshot here is that his shots and goal scoring had already been becoming more one-dimensional, and while still effective, relied a lot on a historically high shot volume (a positive, not a negative).

Ovie can probably be deemed, unquestionably, the best shot generator of all time. You could probably take his goals and hits alone to make the argument that he's the greatest Power Forward of all time, even better than Howe (sorry, traditionalists). And I don't think anyone here would argue he's among the greatest to ever play the game. I think it would be very hard to argue he is the greatest ever to play the game, but some might make arguments to put him in the top 5, and some in the top 15.

Is he the greatest goal scorer of all time? One surefire way to make this argument is if he breaks Gretz's record, and we can stop talking about adjusted stats, down years, peak years, etc. He is already unquestionably one of the top, let's say 3-5 goalscorers of all time. Purest? Most versatile? More nuanced debates that only a few would argue "case closed."

So let's talk about whether he'll break the record, the point of this thread in the first place.

This comes down to two questions:
1. Can Ovie keep up or is he slowing down so much that he won't be able to generate chances?
2. Is it just a statistical regression or is there something driving his lower SH% this year? "Snakebit" vs. "getting older/worse".

Everyone has their own "eye test", but looking at NHL Edge data can give hints on his speed. The data shows that he is slowing down significantly.

• Ovie's top speed in 2023 vs 2024 hasn't changed, in fact slightly higher this year (21.47 vs 21.69). Still puts him <50th %ile, no surprise.
• However, the big problem is his burst. 2023: 34 speed bursts over 20mph. 2024: so far, only 6. League avg was 70 last year and 44 this year so far. He is not as explosive.
• Last year, 193 bursts 18-20mph, league avg 284... below 50th%ile. This year, 99 vs 173, also below 50th %ile but as a relative #, even lower (68% of league avg vs only 57% of league avg this year).
• His OZ time at ES has also gone down, 40% to 38%, which is below 50th %ile in both cases. For his ice time, less of it is being spent in the OZ.
• He hasn't changed much in the distance he skates per 60, slightly up in fact, but the speed at which he does it is going down.

What about the Shooting% problem?

• We know his shooting % is way down. In 2023, it was 86th %ile at 14.3%, league avg 10%. This year, 5.6% with league avg 10%. But why?
• His top shot speed is actually higher this year at 98.4mph (93 %ile) vs 97.8 last year. Even his average shot speed is up, from 52.6 to 60.1mph this year.
• He's actually had a ton of 90-100mph shots (36, 99th %ile) and he's had a lot of 80-90mph shots (50, 90th %ile with league avg only 8). But, he has fallen off between 70-80mph, with 50 (still 84th %ile) vs last year's 113 at year end (93 %ile).
• This means he might be tossing more muffins, which is offset by his top-end staying high and even a bit higher. So it's not about the velocity.
• One unanswered question is whether his SOG/Attempts is stable or going down, which would indicate lower accuracy.

Here's where it gets interesting - shot location. His high danger (crease/slot) chances have fallen off a cliff in more ways than one, and he's shooting from farther out.

• Slot/crease chances in 2023: he had 75, which is 88th %ile. He scored 13 goals at 17% SH%, 53rd %ile. Versus 2024: he has only 21 shots to date (59th %ile) and is converting only 4.8% of them (1 goal). He's getting less chances, so even if it's about the bounces, and he scored 2 more goals to be closer to 15% SH%, he's still short, let's call it 2-3 more goals to date from this spot. But if he had kept the same rate of these types of chances, he'd have another ~4 goals on top of that.
• From the Ovie Spot (and high slot and Right Circle), in 2023 he had 130 shots and 19 goals, both 99%ile, and 14.6% SH%, 76th %ile. About half were the left circle (Spot), then high slot and right circle. This year, he has 74 shots (99%ile) but 51 of them are from the Spot, only 9 from the high slot, and only 14 from the Right circle.
• League avg SH% from these areas is 9%, Ovie is at 5.4% this year. If you double this to get him to 10%, he's short ~4 goals. But maybe his predictable over-reliance on the Spot this year is causing him issues.
• Lastly, the Long Range shots. Last year, only 39 shots, most from the Left, and only one goal. 74th %ile in the league on shots, 2.6% SH% is still 61%ile. This year, however... already 28 shots from downtown, already 3 goals at 10.7% SH%. He's ripping them more from farther away and he has scored ~2 above expected here.

My takeaway: Shooting speed isn't slowing down at the top end but might be at the lower end. Skating speed shows he's definitely slowing down. Shot location shows he's becoming more reliant on the Ovie Spot, and this predictability might be leading to his lower SH%, plus, he might actually be getting less accurate with his shot (Edge data can't prove, only anecdotes about "hitting posts" or if someone codes every shot attempt for the last few years). Probably because he's slowing down, and not getting to the slot/crease area, he's resorting to more desperate shots from further outside, like above the top of the circle. He's gotten a bit lucky to score 3 goals from here, but the underlying cause is not great.

In order for him to score 25 goals this year and for ~2 more seasons, he's gonna have to stem the skating speed loss so he can keep up with the game, and get back to scoring goals from the low slot, high slot, and places that aren't the Ovie Spot. Otherwise it'll be a hard slog.

 

[Strangle]

NHL League Averages | Hockey-Reference.com

Check out the latest NHL League Averages including shots, saves, goal averages and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

There is a direct correlation between sv% and league gpg. One or two players cannot influence league gpg.

Both of those stats are also correlated to Gretzky/Lemieux and Matthews/McDavid’s career’s

Gpg started going up and save percentage started going down once McDavid and Matthews (et al) came and put their stamp on the game

 

[TooManyHumans]

Some actual data would be useful and relevant to both debates (is he the best scorer of all time and is he going to break the record).

Ovie's shot (and goal) charts over the years (this thread has charts thru 2019) show a player who used to shoot and score all over the ice. The player we all know and love and many fell in love with - crazy goal scorer who also threw his huge mass all over the ice with wanton abandon. The "Ovie Spot" has been there since 2007-08 but didn't become his predominant shooting spot until around 2011, when it was "low slot" or "ovie spot". That moved around for a few years as he scored goals from slot, top of circles, etc. In 2015, he would score from his Spot, the mirror top circle spot on the right, and also the low slot. By 2016, he was taking residence in the Spot and by 2019 there wasn't much happening outside the Spot. Can't make / too lazy to google what this has looked like in 2020-22.

The upshot here is that his shots and goal scoring had already been becoming more one-dimensional, and while still effective, relied a lot on a historically high shot volume (a positive, not a negative).

Ovie can probably be deemed, unquestionably, the best shot generator of all time. You could probably take his goals and hits alone to make the argument that he's the greatest Power Forward of all time, even better than Howe (sorry, traditionalists). And I don't think anyone here would argue he's among the greatest to ever play the game. I think it would be very hard to argue he is the greatest ever to play the game, but some might make arguments to put him in the top 5, and some in the top 15.

Is he the greatest goal scorer of all time? One surefire way to make this argument is if he breaks Gretz's record, and we can stop talking about adjusted stats, down years, peak years, etc. He is already unquestionably one of the top, let's say 3-5 goalscorers of all time. Purest? Most versatile? More nuanced debates that only a few would argue "case closed."

So let's talk about whether he'll break the record, the point of this thread in the first place.

This comes down to two questions:
1. Can Ovie keep up or is he slowing down so much that he won't be able to generate chances?
2. Is it just a statistical regression or is there something driving his lower SH% this year? "Snakebit" vs. "getting older/worse".

Everyone has their own "eye test", but looking at NHL Edge data can give hints on his speed. The data shows that he is slowing down significantly.

• Ovie's top speed in 2023 vs 2024 hasn't changed, in fact slightly higher this year (21.47 vs 21.69). Still puts him <50th %ile, no surprise.
• However, the big problem is his burst. 2023: 34 speed bursts over 20mph. 2024: so far, only 6. League avg was 70 last year and 44 this year so far. He is not as explosive.
• Last year, 193 bursts 18-20mph, league avg 284... below 50th%ile. This year, 99 vs 173, also below 50th %ile but as a relative #, even lower (68% of league avg vs only 57% of league avg this year).
• His OZ time at ES has also gone down, 40% to 38%, which is below 50th %ile in both cases. For his ice time, less of it is being spent in the OZ.
• He hasn't changed much in the distance he skates per 60, slightly up in fact, but the speed at which he does it is going down.

What about the Shooting% problem?

• We know his shooting % is way down. In 2023, it was 86th %ile at 14.3%, league avg 10%. This year, 5.6% with league avg 10%. But why?
• His top shot speed is actually higher this year at 98.4mph (93 %ile) vs 97.8 last year. Even his average shot speed is up, from 52.6 to 60.1mph this year.
• He's actually had a ton of 90-100mph shots (36, 99th %ile) and he's had a lot of 80-90mph shots (50, 90th %ile with league avg only 8). But, he has fallen off between 70-80mph, with 50 (still 84th %ile) vs last year's 113 at year end (93 %ile).
• This means he might be tossing more muffins, which is offset by his top-end staying high and even a bit higher. So it's not about the velocity.
• One unanswered question is whether his SOG/Attempts is stable or going down, which would indicate lower accuracy.

Here's where it gets interesting - shot location. His high danger (crease/slot) chances have fallen off a cliff in more ways than one, and he's shooting from farther out.

• Slot/crease chances in 2023: he had 75, which is 88th %ile. He scored 13 goals at 17% SH%, 53rd %ile. Versus 2024: he has only 21 shots to date (59th %ile) and is converting only 4.8% of them (1 goal). He's getting less chances, so even if it's about the bounces, and he scored 2 more goals to be closer to 15% SH%, he's still short, let's call it 2-3 more goals to date from this spot. But if he had kept the same rate of these types of chances, he'd have another ~4 goals on top of that.
• From the Ovie Spot (and high slot and Right Circle), in 2023 he had 130 shots and 19 goals, both 99%ile, and 14.6% SH%, 76th %ile. About half were the left circle (Spot), then high slot and right circle. This year, he has 74 shots (99%ile) but 51 of them are from the Spot, only 9 from the high slot, and only 14 from the Right circle.
• League avg SH% from these areas is 9%, Ovie is at 5.4% this year. If you double this to get him to 10%, he's short ~4 goals. But maybe his predictable over-reliance on the Spot this year is causing him issues.
• Lastly, the Long Range shots. Last year, only 39 shots, most from the Left, and only one goal. 74th %ile in the league on shots, 2.6% SH% is still 61%ile. This year, however... already 28 shots from downtown, already 3 goals at 10.7% SH%. He's ripping them more from farther away and he has scored ~2 above expected here.

My takeaway: Shooting speed isn't slowing down at the top end but might be at the lower end. Skating speed shows he's definitely slowing down. Shot location shows he's becoming more reliant on the Ovie Spot, and this predictability might be leading to his lower SH%, plus, he might actually be getting less accurate with his shot (Edge data can't prove, only anecdotes about "hitting posts" or if someone codes every shot attempt for the last few years). Probably because he's slowing down, and not getting to the slot/crease area, he's resorting to more desperate shots from further outside, like above the top of the circle. He's gotten a bit lucky to score 3 goals from here, but the underlying cause is not great.

In order for him to score 25 goals this year and for ~2 more seasons, he's gonna have to stem the skating speed loss so he can keep up with the game, and get back to scoring goals from the low slot, high slot, and places that aren't the Ovie Spot. Otherwise it'll be a hard slog.

Really interesting. Thanks for sharing all this.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Sorry, I've got an underdeveloped brain so can't really help you out.

If your brain develops further and you get an insight, let us know.

This seems like a post I would get an infraction for ngl

 

[Bear of Bad News]

This seems like a post I would get an infraction for ngl

Try not reading it in isolation.

 

[PlushMinus]

This seems like a post I would get an infraction for ngl

I actually found it pretty amusing to see an admin / mod having a shitfight with somebody on here.

Don't see that every day!

 

[daver]

Both of those stats are also correlated to Gretzky/Lemieux and Matthews/McDavid’s career’s

Gpg started going up and save percentage started going down once McDavid and Matthews (et al) came and put their stamp on the game

The downturn of scoring that started in 1990 is as much correlated to Mario's career or moreso.

And what about Jagr? He caused scoring to go down?

Seems pretty random.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Some actual data would be useful and relevant to both debates (is he the best scorer of all time and is he going to break the record).

Ovie's shot (and goal) charts over the years (this thread has charts thru 2019) show a player who used to shoot and score all over the ice. The player we all know and love and many fell in love with - crazy goal scorer who also threw his huge mass all over the ice with wanton abandon. The "Ovie Spot" has been there since 2007-08 but didn't become his predominant shooting spot until around 2011, when it was "low slot" or "ovie spot". That moved around for a few years as he scored goals from slot, top of circles, etc. In 2015, he would score from his Spot, the mirror top circle spot on the right, and also the low slot. By 2016, he was taking residence in the Spot and by 2019 there wasn't much happening outside the Spot. Can't make / too lazy to google what this has looked like in 2020-22.

The upshot here is that his shots and goal scoring had already been becoming more one-dimensional, and while still effective, relied a lot on a historically high shot volume (a positive, not a negative).

Ovie can probably be deemed, unquestionably, the best shot generator of all time. You could probably take his goals and hits alone to make the argument that he's the greatest Power Forward of all time, even better than Howe (sorry, traditionalists). And I don't think anyone here would argue he's among the greatest to ever play the game. I think it would be very hard to argue he is the greatest ever to play the game, but some might make arguments to put him in the top 5, and some in the top 15.

Is he the greatest goal scorer of all time? One surefire way to make this argument is if he breaks Gretz's record, and we can stop talking about adjusted stats, down years, peak years, etc. He is already unquestionably one of the top, let's say 3-5 goalscorers of all time. Purest? Most versatile? More nuanced debates that only a few would argue "case closed."

So let's talk about whether he'll break the record, the point of this thread in the first place.

This comes down to two questions:
1. Can Ovie keep up or is he slowing down so much that he won't be able to generate chances?
2. Is it just a statistical regression or is there something driving his lower SH% this year? "Snakebit" vs. "getting older/worse".

Everyone has their own "eye test", but looking at NHL Edge data can give hints on his speed. The data shows that he is slowing down significantly.

• Ovie's top speed in 2023 vs 2024 hasn't changed, in fact slightly higher this year (21.47 vs 21.69). Still puts him <50th %ile, no surprise.
• However, the big problem is his burst. 2023: 34 speed bursts over 20mph. 2024: so far, only 6. League avg was 70 last year and 44 this year so far. He is not as explosive.
• Last year, 193 bursts 18-20mph, league avg 284... below 50th%ile. This year, 99 vs 173, also below 50th %ile but as a relative #, even lower (68% of league avg vs only 57% of league avg this year).
• His OZ time at ES has also gone down, 40% to 38%, which is below 50th %ile in both cases. For his ice time, less of it is being spent in the OZ.
• He hasn't changed much in the distance he skates per 60, slightly up in fact, but the speed at which he does it is going down.

What about the Shooting% problem?

• We know his shooting % is way down. In 2023, it was 86th %ile at 14.3%, league avg 10%. This year, 5.6% with league avg 10%. But why?
• His top shot speed is actually higher this year at 98.4mph (93 %ile) vs 97.8 last year. Even his average shot speed is up, from 52.6 to 60.1mph this year.
• He's actually had a ton of 90-100mph shots (36, 99th %ile) and he's had a lot of 80-90mph shots (50, 90th %ile with league avg only 8). But, he has fallen off between 70-80mph, with 50 (still 84th %ile) vs last year's 113 at year end (93 %ile).
• This means he might be tossing more muffins, which is offset by his top-end staying high and even a bit higher. So it's not about the velocity.
• One unanswered question is whether his SOG/Attempts is stable or going down, which would indicate lower accuracy.

Here's where it gets interesting - shot location. His high danger (crease/slot) chances have fallen off a cliff in more ways than one, and he's shooting from farther out.

• Slot/crease chances in 2023: he had 75, which is 88th %ile. He scored 13 goals at 17% SH%, 53rd %ile. Versus 2024: he has only 21 shots to date (59th %ile) and is converting only 4.8% of them (1 goal). He's getting less chances, so even if it's about the bounces, and he scored 2 more goals to be closer to 15% SH%, he's still short, let's call it 2-3 more goals to date from this spot. But if he had kept the same rate of these types of chances, he'd have another ~4 goals on top of that.
• From the Ovie Spot (and high slot and Right Circle), in 2023 he had 130 shots and 19 goals, both 99%ile, and 14.6% SH%, 76th %ile. About half were the left circle (Spot), then high slot and right circle. This year, he has 74 shots (99%ile) but 51 of them are from the Spot, only 9 from the high slot, and only 14 from the Right circle.
• League avg SH% from these areas is 9%, Ovie is at 5.4% this year. If you double this to get him to 10%, he's short ~4 goals. But maybe his predictable over-reliance on the Spot this year is causing him issues.
• Lastly, the Long Range shots. Last year, only 39 shots, most from the Left, and only one goal. 74th %ile in the league on shots, 2.6% SH% is still 61%ile. This year, however... already 28 shots from downtown, already 3 goals at 10.7% SH%. He's ripping them more from farther away and he has scored ~2 above expected here.

My takeaway: Shooting speed isn't slowing down at the top end but might be at the lower end. Skating speed shows he's definitely slowing down. Shot location shows he's becoming more reliant on the Ovie Spot, and this predictability might be leading to his lower SH%, plus, he might actually be getting less accurate with his shot (Edge data can't prove, only anecdotes about "hitting posts" or if someone codes every shot attempt for the last few years). Probably because he's slowing down, and not getting to the slot/crease area, he's resorting to more desperate shots from further outside, like above the top of the circle. He's gotten a bit lucky to score 3 goals from here, but the underlying cause is not great.

In order for him to score 25 goals this year and for ~2 more seasons, he's gonna have to stem the skating speed loss so he can keep up with the game, and get back to scoring goals from the low slot, high slot, and places that aren't the Ovie Spot. Otherwise it'll be a hard slog.

Interesting takeaway.. reading all the data you presented made me walk away thinking he’s been better this season than I had previously thought