Will Ovechkin hit 20 goals this season?

[Video Nasty]

I can see the argument for Gretzky being the greatest goalscorer but does not feel right to me, in the conversation to be in the top 5, as a said just above:
Howe-Ovechkin-Jagr are cleanly above him career wise adjusted so I do not have Gretzky goal total that high versus some.

In the recent past it was between Hull, Hull, Bure, Lemieux, Ovechkin, Richard, Bossy, Gretzky, with my preference for Richard vs Lemieux, with how Ovechkin aged it became more and more hard to argue that he is not the greatest ever at it.

Lemieux could have been the best and most versatile scorer ever and Richard still the one to pick in you need a goal in the playoff or about to play in overtime even if Ovechkin is the greatest at it, he did it more.

How does Jagr rank above Gretzky when he never led the league in goals?

 

[McFlash97]

It can go a bit both ways, team defense and goaltender fear and must respect what you can do passing wise to a teammate if they rush you it can open up your shooting lane and give space and time as well.


Everything after Suter incident will be a bit unfair to use against what 25 years old Gretzky do in 1998 scoring wise.

He could still score after the summer of 1991, but in short unsustained way, a good example would be the 1997 playoff, 10 goals in 15 games during the start of the DPE playoff hockey, against Vanbiesbrouck, Brodeur Devils and the Flyers that was a very solid team in that era. 30 years old Robitaille scored 4 that year, 28 years old Adam Graves scored 2.




When Greztky scored 87 goals in just 74 games the average teams scored 3.95 goals a night that a lot, 3.12 this year, but scoring distribution can also change quite a bit over time (between top 6 guys and bottom 6 one, amount of power play, empty net goals, 3v3 overtime) impacting those.

Gretzky should still be top 5 all time in total adjusted goals, with just Howe-Ovechkin-Jagr cleanly above him

What ?

 

[MadLuke]

What ?

Well 2 of those took way more games to do it, are you really shock considered when they played bulk of their games:

Rank	Player	Years	G
1.	Wayne Gretzky*	1979-99	894
2.	Alex Ovechkin	2005-24	827
3.	Gordie Howe*	1946-80	801
4.	Jaromír Jágr	1990-18	766

That Ovechkin, Howe, Jagr could adjust for more goals ?

How does Jagr rank above Gretzky when he never led the league in goals?

By playing way more games in his career, 1733 to 1487. Jagr finishing 4 time second in goals or 2 time first and 2 time second is not that relevant and not at all in term of career goal total, obviously.

scoring more adjusted goals does not make you a better goal scorer (specially not when it is with so much more games).

 

[McFlash97]

Well 2 of those took way more games to do it, are you really shock considered when they played bulk of their games:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TH]Rank[/TH]
[TH]Player[/TH]
[TH]Years[/TH]
[TH]G[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1.[/TD]
[TD]Wayne Gretzky*[/TD]
[TD]1979-99[/TD]
[TD]894[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2.[/TD]
[TD]Alex Ovechkin[/TD]
[TD]2005-24[/TD]
[TD]827[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3.[/TD]
[TD]Gordie Howe*[/TD]
[TD]1946-80[/TD]
[TD]801[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4.[/TD]
[TD]Jaromír Jágr[/TD]
[TD]1990-18[/TD]
[TD]766[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


That Ovechkin, Howe, Jagr could adjust for more goals ?


By playing way more games in his career, 1733 to 1487. Jagr finishing 4 time second in goals or 2 time first and 2 time second is not that relevant and not at all in term of career goal total, obviously.

scoring more adjusted goals does not make you a better goal scorer (specially not when it is with so much more games).

mental exercises needed to come up with this wack theory makes this conclusion even more absurd .

Wayne Gretzky is the greatest goal scorer of all time until the day he is passed.

 

[MadLuke]

Wayne Gretzky is the greatest goal scorer of all time until the day he is passed.

Did Lemieux never pass Mike Gartner in goal scoring greatness ? Did Marleau pass Maurice Richard just because he scored more goal, that a bit absurd.

 

[McFlash97]

Did Lemieux never pass Mike Gartner in goal scoring greatness ? Did Marleau pass Maurice Richard just because he scored more goal, that a bit absurd.

Buddy,

Gretzky holds over 20 goal scoring records.

You look desperate trying to justify your looney tunes theory.

 

[MadLuke]

You look desperate trying to justify your looney tunes theory.

Most time leading the national hockey league in scoring, Ovechkin did it 80% more often:
Goals

1.	Alex Ovechkin	9
2.	Bobby Hull*	7
3.	Phil Esposito*	6
4.	Wayne Gretzky*	5
	Charlie Conacher*	5
	Gordie Howe*	5
	Maurice Richard*	5
8.	Babe Dye*	4
9.	Mario Lemieux*	3
	Brett Hull*	3

Most time top 3:
Goals

1.	Gordie Howe*	12
2.	Alex Ovechkin	11
3.	Bobby Hull*	10
4.	Maurice Richard*	9
5.	Mike Bossy*	7
	Phil Esposito*	7
7.	Cy Denneny*	6
	Mario Lemieux*	6
	Babe Dye*	6
10.	Teemu Selänne*	5

If you think there is no question here, just because Gretzky scored more goals in total, why that metric versus the most time leading the league in goals should prevail ?

 

[My3Sons]

Buddy,

Gretzky holds over 20 goal scoring records.

You look desperate trying to justify your looney tunes theory.

My Looney Tunes theory is that Daffy was the star, not Buggs.

 

[pi314]

I said on the Caps GDT last night, in games like this my thought used to be “I guess the only thing to root for now is an Ovechkin goal”, but I don’t even have that thought this season. It’s more like “my wildest dream today is Ovechkin being visible”. He’s had rough stretches in his career where the pucks aren’t going in, but in those stretches he was still himself, this season he has looked like a ghost of himself.

Father Time or is he playing injured? What’s your assessment?

 

[McFlash97]

Most time leading the national hockey league in scoring, Ovechkin did it 80% more often:
Goals
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]1.[/TD]
[TD]Alex Ovechkin[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2.[/TD]
[TD]Bobby Hull*[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3.[/TD]
[TD]Phil Esposito*[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4.[/TD]
[TD]Wayne Gretzky*[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Charlie Conacher*[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Gordie Howe*[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Maurice Richard*[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8.[/TD]
[TD]Babe Dye*[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9.[/TD]
[TD]Mario Lemieux*[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Brett Hull*[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Most time top 3:
Goals
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]1.[/TD]
[TD]Gordie Howe*[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2.[/TD]
[TD]Alex Ovechkin[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3.[/TD]
[TD]Bobby Hull*[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4.[/TD]
[TD]Maurice Richard*[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5.[/TD]
[TD]Mike Bossy*[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Phil Esposito*[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7.[/TD]
[TD]Cy Denneny*[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Mario Lemieux*[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Babe Dye*[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10.[/TD]
[TD]Teemu Selänne*[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

If you think there is no question here, just because Gretzky scored more goals in total, why that metric versus the most time leading the league in goals should prevail ?

Lol

Can you bring up most 60 plus goals ? 50 plus goals ? 40 plus goals ? 70 + goals ? 80 + ? 90 + ?

Gretzky's competition was Bossy, Lemieux, Kurri, Hull, Yzerman

Who was Ovechkins competition ? Most of Ovechkins seasons , 50 plus goals gets you the Rocket.

The amount of mental exercises done to discredit Gretzkys goal scoring acumen by these Gen z know it all's is hillarious.

Only reason Gretzky isn't at 1000 goals and in more top 5 finishes is because he decided after 86 to rack up 120 assists plus on a whim.

He was literally trying to attain the max point totals so it was just easier for him to set his linemates up. He easily could have hit another 100 plus goals if he wanted to.

The guy was above and beyond man.

 

[MadLuke]

Gretzky's competition was Bossy, Lemieux, Kurri, Hull, Yzerman

Gretzky goal finish where he did not win

81: yes lost to bossy but to Dionne/Simmer as well.
86: lost to Kurri, Bossy, Kerr, Anderson, Goulet
89: Yes to Lemieux, but Nicholls, Yzerman also.

Remove all those name, Gretzky does not necessarily have one more Rocket, Brett Hull was after Greztky was done winning those, he was done finishing in the Top 10.

Can you bring up most 60 plus goals ? 50 plus goals ? 40 plus goals ? 70 + goals ? 80 + ? 90 + ?

Dennis Maruk has the same amount of 60 goals season as Ovechkin, you cannot be serious with that approach. Thinking like this would exclude everyone that played in the 06 from the start (trying putting 70 goals in 50 games of very solid defensive hockey), or a lot in one of those low scoring era like the 1997-04 or the 2008-17

Only reason Gretzky isn't at 1000 goals and in more top 5 finishes is because he decided after 86 to rack up 120 assists plus on a whim.

Or the injuries, 1991 Suter in particular, could easily have lost 100 goals from it.

 

[Cloned]

He’s hit the same wall that Gretzky hit with goal scoring. His longevity was impressive though.

 

[george14]

Ovi actually looks washed. I know some Caps fans want to deny this, but he cannot corral the puck nor can he skate. Not that he wont go on some sort of hot streak, he has to at some point, but I think between 25-30 is his ceiling.

It’s a long season followed by a long off season. What will he look like next year and beyond? I doubt he regains form next year and scores 40. It’s going to be interesting to see where he ends up at the midway point this year.

 

[BallardEra]

It’s going to be interesting to see where he ends up at the midway point this year.

Currently on pace for 18 goals this season.

 

[jcs0218]

I am just wondering if anyone has more knowledge on why he isn't producing this year. I have seen the Caps play sparingly this year so I can't say I've seen a lot, but is it just age finally catching up with him? No Backstrom? A combination of both? Something else? Because he is on pace for under 20 goals this year and that is not Ovie-like, not even an old Ovie you figure would do this. Did it just take 18 years for the league to figure him out and has he just become more predictable? He does have that one-timer on the power play but it was effective even as recent as last year and he's been doing that forever.

Probably a combination of slump plus age.

He might be injured too.

Although I have always been surprised in regards to his consistent powerplay production.

As you mentioned, it has always been based on that one-timer from the exact same spot in the offensive zone.

I am dumbfounded how professional hockey league teams allowed themselves to get burned by the exact same play for almost 20 years.

If I was an NHL coach running the penalty kill, I would have had 1 player standing within a stick's length of him at all times.

My attitude would have been: "I know with 100% certainty what the Capitals game-plan is. They are going to pass it to Ovechkin for a one-timer at the top of the circle. I am not going to allow them to do that. I will go 4-on-3 for the remaining areas of the zone. They will have to figure out another way to beat us because I refuse to allow Ovechkin's predictable one-timer to beat us".

It seems exactly like what Brett Hull once said. He said NHL coaches are stupid.

 

[MadLuke]

It seems exactly like what Brett Hull once said. He said NHL coaches are stupid.

Only if we think their goal is winning hockey game and not keeping their jobs that pay millions of dollars.

Not looking crazy/bad/special when they loose can matter more than maximizing win and would not be stupidity, it drove removing goaltender strategy a bit.

When you get scored on trying that novel strategy, you will get a lot of attention, being beat like everyone do not at all.

It is quite a challenge for teams to try to perfectly align incentive here, as GM firing coach for not doing novel idea would also put them on the hot seat.

 

[Nasti]

To the people saying Gretzky didn’t have a great shot. Go find Game 3 of the ‘93 cup final against eventual Conn Smythe winner Patrick Roy.

 

[CatOTails]

He's too slow and barely moves out there. He's been given unreasonable TOI on the Caps he wouldn't get on most other teams where he doesn't have any nostalgic value. I'm sure there's some team(s?) out there that would try to fit him on their 1st line, but even bad teams like say Buffalo have LWs that brings more overall value and hustle (Skinner). Look how Vegas scratched Kessel in the last playoffs for instance (and won the Cup), they're an org that doesn't seem to cater to nostalgia.



This is a fantasy outlook on hockey where players aren't people but video game characters or names on a stat sheet. In real life players both age and get worn out by playing tons of games which shortens their longterm durability. Both Selänne and Lidström spoke publicly on how the 04–05 lockout extended their careers. Selänne might have been outright done (as in retired) hadn't that lockout happened, whereas Lids probably wouldn't have been as effective around the Z/Dats era.

Ovechkin also played in the softest era of hockey ever, which helped his overall durability.

Vegas cannot cater for nostalgia, because Vegas team is 5 or 6 years old. Are you seriously comparing OV and Kessel? Kessel was a very good player, but he was nowhere close to OV in terms of play and production. During his Pens time he cracked 30 goals only once, and that's when playing with Crosby and Malkin.
Even if you compare 22-23 season, Kessel had 14 goals and 36 points, against OV, who scored 42 goals and got 75 points, maintaining a PPG place.
But of course, if you add OV to Buffalo they'd start sucking more. Or imagine how Oilers would start sucking if they had OV on McD's or Drai's wing.
Dude, you've lost a braincell somewhere here, I'll let you know when I see one.

 

[powerbomb]

Tristan Jarry and Alex Ovechkin have the same number of goals in the last 10 games.

 

[jcs0218]

To the people saying Gretzky didn’t have a great shot. Go find Game 3 of the ‘93 cup final against eventual Conn Smythe winner Patrick Roy.

Or take a look at this shot:

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

Didn't Gretzky play with a broken back from like 92 onwards?

I know it almost ended his career in 94.

 

[centipede2233]

As durable as he has been, ovie doesn’t strike me as a health nut and could be a huge hinderence as he ages.

 

[jcs0218]

As durable as he has been, ovie doesn’t strike me as a health nut and could be a huge hinderence as he ages.

From what can be observed through public information, it seems like Ovechkin likes to drink.

Drinking can quickly catch up to people, especially as they get older and closer to 40 years of age.

 

[serp]

I know aging in sports sometimes happens really really quickly and Ovie still has time to turn it on and score 40-ish goals this year but man does he look old this year just compared to last year. It's not just that his shooting % is way lower than in career average he has way less shots on goals than normally. He's allways been at/near of the top of the league in SOG and this year he's not.

If you had asked me last year if Ovie breaks Gretzkys goal record i'd have said yes but now ? With how he's been playing this year so far the answer would be a clear no

 

[EdJovanovski]

People were saying these exact same things about Ovi years ago