Will Ovechkin hit 20 goals this season?

[BeastoftheEast85]

Father time is undefeated. I still hope to see Ovechkin surpass Gretzky - just because it's fun to see records get broken - but seeing how quickly age is catching up to Ovi underscores just how unbelievable 99's scoring totals were and are.

If Ovechkin falters before goal #895, the record may just stand forever. That said, I think he has 20 in him this season.

I agree, I still really want to see Ovi break the record.

But regardless I don’t think the goal scoring record will stand forever. The fact that Ovechkin, who played most of his career in a low scoring era and one of the eras with the most missed games/seasons due to lockouts and lockdowns even has a shot at breaking it shows it’s possible. I'm sure sometime in the future there will be a fantastic goal scorer with longevity who plays in a high scoring era and breaks it.

In fact if you go back and count WHA scoring I think Howe would be on top and Hull would be close. (Though Gretzky would also have even more goals)

 

[Magic 8 Ball]

There's a lot of coulda shoulda woulda in this. It is what it is. Missed games, era adjusting, who had more shots, who was more injured....none of these matter in the long run. You break the record, or you don't.

 

[Hank Plank]

Ovi already has nearly 1400 more SOG in his career than Gretzky. The Great One will remain the best no matter what.

Gretzky was primarily a play maker. Hate to admit it but he's the greatest athlete in the history of team sport.

 

[Kerberos]

You are basically the most famous sports personality of all time.

What? lol no...

 

[RocketCityRocker]

He'll break Gretzky's record and close to half the goals he scores between now and then will be EN goals.

 

[filinski77]

There's a lot of coulda shoulda woulda in this. It is what it is. Missed games, era adjusting, who had more shots, who was more injured....none of these matter in the long run. You break the record, or you don't.

Exactly. Raw record or not, Ovechkin is still the GOAT goalscorer. 9x rockets in the modern era is insane.

 

[WalterLundy]

You say that last part like it’s a fact when goals per game were drastically higher, pretty sure Ovechkin’s 65 goals adjusts to around 90 and that’s before getting into the fact that Gretzky played atleast 3 more minutes per game when shifts were longer and star players especially played a lot more, the pace of the game was generally way slower and goaltending and defensive structure was worse than some Junior A hockey games I saw nearly 20 years ago. Half the defensemen and depth players could barely skate by todays NHL standards, the league when Gretzky was putting up cartoonish goal scoring numbers was a far cry from what it is today both in overall talent pool and league parity, there was no attention to detail defensively and breaking down game footage to gameplan around star players didn’t exist yet. It was basically a free for all pond hockey style game, truthfully there are beer leagues that play better defense with goalies who cover the net twice as good as those in the early to mid 80s for quite some time now.

So if you make a boatload of assumptions about how his game would’ve and maybe could’ve evolved then I suppose you could claim that as a fact, but otherwise Ovechkin is the best goal scorer of all-time regardless seeing as how he has led the NHL in goals 9 times to Gretzky’s 5 and has been about equally dominant doing so over the length of his career.

If I use that logic then Connor McDavid is easily the best player ever. Doing what he did in a league this advanced clears anything any player has ever done. When Ovechkin scored 65 goals he took 446 shots. Gretzky scored 87 goals in 74 games on 326 shots. If he plays 82 games that year (even if it were 80 game seasons) he is at 361 shots and 97 goals. If Gretzky takes as many shots as Ovi it wouldn’t matter what adjustment you use. Adjusted stats aren’t real numbers though and we never would really know what would actually be put up. That isn’t even my argument though.



McDavid’s 167 points in 84 games from April 20 2022 to March 3 2023 trumps anything anyone has ever done if you consider the night and day differences league wide. You are right that the differences between the 80s and 90s to todays NHL are that stark but we would then have to admit that the current best player is better than the previous and so on. My argument was if Gretzky was born in 1997 and got to come up in the same environment as todays players that he would have topped 65. Should have made that more clear. Can I prove that? No I guess but I think most hockey fans that watched his career innately know this. Even with the massive differences I think the beer league suggestion is hilariously off base. I would give anything to see even an average player in their prime from the 80s dropped into a beer league. Having been on the ice with Bill Guerin in 2012 and seeing him skate with AAA kids and completely outclassing them by several tiers tells me just how bad it would be for a prime 80s guy in a beer league. Not all of your points are off though really just that one. That’s an absurd take. But given how things change, what actually happened in history and priority Ovechkin probably is the best goal scorer.

 

[Canadiens Ghost]

The great one also took those shots against goalies with pads half the size
You can't tell me goalies were as good back then as they are now either

Gretzky also played with wooden sticks and would have also scored more goals had he been more selfish like Ovi. Gretzky was looking more often than not to pass to a teammate.

 

[amnesiac]

Gretzky also played with wooden sticks and would have also scored more goals had he been more selfish like Ovi. Gretzky was looking more often than not to pass to a teammate.

I don’t buy it, his shot was simply not good enough in the by the mid 90s as goalies were getting bigger and better. He still potted 25 in his late 30s but by no means was he a 35+ goal scorer whether he chose to shot more or not

 

[amnesiac]

There's a lot of coulda shoulda woulda in this. It is what it is. Missed games, era adjusting, who had more shots, who was more injured....none of these matter in the long run. You break the record, or you don't.

Well yes the era you played in matters whether you think so or not. A difference of over 2 GPG is significant.

If Ovi has to retire say 10 goals shy of the record, he should easily be regarded as the greatest goal scorer ever and anyone who thinks otherwise needs to give their head a shake.

It’s as ridiculous as saying todays goalies were better than say, Patrick Roy in the late 80s and early 90s because they have a better SV%

 

[GMR]

He wins the Masterton in 2024-2025 for comeback player, after scoring 25 goals.

 

[GrkFlyersFan]

I don’t buy it, his shot was simply not good enough in the by the mid 90s as goalies were getting bigger and better. He still potted 25 in his late 30s but by no means was he a 35+ goal scorer whether he chose to shot more or not

It was the Dead Puck Era and he himself was much older. As late as 97-98, he was 3rd in points behind only a prime Jagr and Forsberg. He was 37 by then! THEN he had a bad year at 38 and correctly retired. In any era he would've been great. It's helping Ovechkin that the game is opening up as he gets old. Ovechkin will be the best sniper of all-time and I hope he makes it official, but give Gretzky his due.

 

[Video Nasty]

Amusing how at the first real signs of adversity, his most ardent supporters are quietly coming down from “It’s A Lock Mountain” and retreating back into the argument that he’s the best goal scorer even if he doesn’t break the record.

It’s no surprise really. This crowd has never been that honest to begin with; not when he was carefully crowned the best by some as early as scoring his 600th career goal.

Now is not the time to back off. Dig deep because there would still be nothing surprising about seeing him pot 20 goals in a 25 game stretch, even though I see no signs of it yet.

 

[Hivemind]

Ovi already has nearly 1400 more SOG in his career than Gretzky. The Great One will remain the best no matter what.

It not a shooting% record, it's a goal record. Being able to create shots is a skill.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

The pressure that comes with passing Gretzky and being known as that guy. You are basically the most famous sports personality of all time. It’s probably heavy. Really heavy. I am not even sure he wants it.

I don't think anybody outside the hockey community will really care if Ovi beats the record

Amusing how at the first real signs of adversity, his most ardent supporters are quietly coming down from “It’s A Lock Mountain” and retreating back into the argument that he’s the best goal scorer even if he doesn’t break the record.

It’s no surprise really. This crowd has never been that honest to begin with; not when he was carefully crowned the best by some as early as scoring his 600th career goal.

Now is not the time to back off. Dig deep because there would still be nothing surprising about seeing him pot 20 goals in a 25 game stretch, even though I see no signs of it yet.

They are mourning like I am , its hard to see your hero's go out

 

[Canadiens Ghost]

It not a shooting% record, it's a goal record. Being able to create shots is a skill.

If Gretzky wouldn't have been so generous passing off to his teammates, he would have easily created more shots himself which would have resulted in more goals. He didn't have a shoot first mentality like Ovi.

 

[Hivemind]

If Gretzky wouldn't have been so generous passing off to his teammates, he would have easily created more shots himself which would have resulted in more goals. He didn't have a shoot first mentality like Ovi.

"If"

Playing "if" games we can also transpose Ovechkin into the era of 80s goaltenders...

 

[Canadiens Ghost]

"If"

Playing "if" games we can also transpose Ovechkin into the era of 80s goaltenders...

You can't deny he often made passes when he had a clear shooting opportunity.

 

[abo9]

He'll break Gretzky's record and close to half the goals he scores between now and then will be EN goals.

The empty net argument is funny. The difference between Ocechkin and Gretzky is very small (in terms of pace, theyre equal right now in absolute numbers).

But not only that, if Ovechkin continues his empty net goal scoring pace, he'll score 8 or 9 more empty net goals within 3 years.

Which could actually he surprising since the caps arent a wagon anymore and you get less empty net opportunities when your team loses...

 

[Video Nasty]

It was the Dead Puck Era and he himself was much older. As late as 97-98, he was 3rd in points behind only a prime Jagr and Forsberg. He was 37 by then! THEN he had a bad year at 38 and correctly retired. In any era he would've been great. It's helping Ovechkin that the game is opening up as he gets old. Ovechkin will be the best sniper of all-time and I hope he makes it official, but give Gretzky his due.

@amnesiac has also long ignored the extreme amount of hockey already played and back issues when discussing Gretzky’s decline inside the 90s. Perhaps because of his own superhuman standards, but when reviewing his posts, Gretzky was supposed to pot 50 and score 150 points all the way through the end of his career, regardless of injuries, age, and mileage.

He has his stance and won’t change it.

 

[Hivemind]

You can't deny he often made passes when he had a clear shooting opportunity.

And? It's a goal scoring record, not a "what if" record.

Either you allow the speculative "what ifs" or you don't allow them. You also cannot deny that 80s goaltending was worse and the gameplay of the 80s was higher scoring than that of Ovechkin's era. If you're going to factor in the "what if Gretzky passed less" then you also need to factor in "what if Ovie played in the 80s?"

Stop cherry picking.

 

[filinski77]

Amusing how at the first real signs of adversity, his most ardent supporters are quietly coming down from “It’s A Lock Mountain” and retreating back into the argument that he’s the best goal scorer even if he doesn’t break the record.

It’s no surprise really. This crowd has never been that honest to begin with; not when he was carefully crowned the best by some as early as scoring his 600th career goal.

Now is not the time to back off. Dig deep because there would still be nothing surprising about seeing him pot 20 goals in a 25 game stretch, even though I see no signs of it yet.

I certainly hope you're not referring to me. Not honest?

After 607 goals, Ovechkin had lead the league in goals SEVEN times. That was tied for the most all-time (tied with Hull Sr. who did it in the O6), and was already twice more than Gretzky had ever done it. At 600 goals, it was completely fair to make an argument that Ovechkin was the best goal scorer ever.

Now here he is, 2 more goal-scoring crowns (and 2 more top-10 finishes), and 220 goals later, that argument from back then is even stronger.

I personally have always stated that raw record or not - he's the GOAT goalscorer. It would just be nice for him to have it, since there's a certain crowd who will never give him his due unless he hits the raw record.

 

[Beau Knows]

Man, I don't know why an Oilers fan would be so upset about Ovechkin breaking the goal scoring record.

Ovechkin is already the best goal scorer ever, it doesn't really matter that much if he breaks the record, other than it just being neat to see.

Gretzky has about 1000 other records, and isn't the GOAT because he has the most goals, it'd be a very minor chip knocked off Gretzky's legacy. So I don't think there's any need to be insecure about it. Records are made to be broken.

 

[Canadiens Ghost]

And? It's a goal scoring record, not a "what if" record.

Either you allow the speculative "what ifs" or you don't allow them. You also cannot deny that 80s goaltending was worse and the gameplay of the 80s was higher scoring than that of Ovechkin's era. If you're going to factor in the "what if Gretzky passed less" then you also need to factor in "what if Ovie played in the 80s?"

Stop cherry picking.

Please point out to where I didn't allow the "Ovi in the 80's" argument. Gretzky will still remain the best even if Ovi gets the record.
Although Joe Malone is probably the real best goal scorer ever but I didn't see him play.

 

[Hank Plank]

If player X played in X era this would happen arguments are pointless. That won't happen so you discard it and accept the results as being valid for the era.