Will Ovechkin hit 20 goals this season?

[Video Nasty]

I certainly hope you're not referring to me. Not honest?

After 607 goals, Ovechkin had lead the league in goals SEVEN times. That was tied for the most all-time (tied with Hull Sr. who did it in the O6), and was already twice more than Gretzky had ever done it. At 600 goals, it was completely fair to make an argument that Ovechkin was the best goal scorer ever.

Now here he is, 2 more goal-scoring crowns (and 2 more top-10 finishes), and 220 goals later, that argument from back then is even stronger.

I personally have always stated that raw record or not - he's the GOAT goalscorer. It would just be nice for him to have it, since there's a certain crowd who will never give him his due unless he hits the raw record.

Your post prompted me to post what I did, because it matched the mild shift I’ve felt lately, on this forum, Reddit, and the hockey corners of the internet in general.

I normally call out who I’m talking to directly with an @filinski77 or a direct quote. You’re a consistent poster and though I used you as a launching point, I’m speaking to all participants of this thread and any huge Ovechkin thread, who talked about how it was a foregone conclusion as little as a month ago.

 

[YippieKaey]

If Gretzky wouldn't have been so generous passing off to his teammates, he would have easily created more shots himself which would have resulted in more goals. He didn't have a shoot first mentality like Ovi.

If Ovi played with Coffey, Kurri and Messier against 1980s 5'8 goalies he would have scored 1000 goals per season.

As to Gretzkys shooting mentality, so what? They both have the amount of goals they have. Im sure Ovi could have more assists if he had more of a passers mentality but that's entirely irrelevant.

 

[cowboy82nd]

If Ovi played with Coffey, Kurri and Messier against 1980s 5'8 goalies he would have scored 1000 goals per season.

As to Gretzkys shooting mentality, so what? They both have the amount of goals they have. Im sure Ovi could have more assists if he had more of a passers mentality but that's entirely irrelevant.

Damn, what a record. And when did this hypothetical season happen?

 

[Bear of Bad News]

If Ovi played with Coffey, Kurri and Messier against 1980s 5'8 goalies he would have scored 1000 goals per season.

As to Gretzkys shooting mentality, so what? They both have the amount of goals they have. Im sure Ovi could have more assists if he had more of a passers mentality but that's entirely irrelevant.

That's impressive how quickly you went from a bizarre hypothetical involving 1000 goals per season to "they both have the amount of goals they have."

 

[HTFN]

That's impressive how quickly you went from a bizarre hypothetical involving 1000 goals per season to "they both have the amount of goals they have."

made perfect sense to me, if we want to play stupid what if games that change the history and personality of the player it works both ways. If we can "what if" a shooting Gretzky we can "what if" Ovechkin on a real dynasty level team (or even just the scoring of the 80's)

They have the goals they have. Gretzky was famous for his computer brain making the right play as often as he could, a shoot-first Gretzky might not be the weapon everyone paints him as in these threads if he's predictable.

fascinating that we're latching on to that part and nothing about trying to moralize the act of shooting

 

[VainGretzky]

Yes he will Ovie always has spurts where he puts up goals in streaks probably still hits 30 plus

 

[YippieKaey]

Damn, what a record. And when did this hypothetical season happen?

In the same universe as that in which Gretzky had more of a shooter mentality.

That's impressive how quickly you went from a bizarre hypothetical involving 1000 goals per season to "they both have the amount of goals they have."

Yes. Proving how irrelevant hypotheticals are no?

 

[Neil Racki]

Recency bias with Ovie perhaps ..

Easy for the human brain to see a 38 year old plodding Ovie and have that paint over his entire career including his 20s when he was a wrecking ball.

Human nature I suppose .. what have you done for me lately Eddie?

 

[Crosby2010]

I am just wondering if anyone has more knowledge on why he isn't producing this year. I have seen the Caps play sparingly this year so I can't say I've seen a lot, but is it just age finally catching up with him? No Backstrom? A combination of both? Something else? Because he is on pace for under 20 goals this year and that is not Ovie-like, not even an old Ovie you figure would do this. Did it just take 18 years for the league to figure him out and has he just become more predictable? He does have that one-timer on the power play but it was effective even as recent as last year and he's been doing that forever.

 

[Devilsfan2326]

I am just wondering if anyone has more knowledge on why he isn't producing this year. I have seen the Caps play sparingly this year so I can't say I've seen a lot, but is it just age finally catching up with him? No Backstrom? A combination of both? Something else? Because he is on pace for under 20 goals this year and that is not Ovie-like, not even an old Ovie you figure would do this. Did it just take 18 years for the league to figure him out and has he just become more predictable? He does have that one-timer on the power play but it was effective even as recent as last year and he's been doing that forever.

I'm here for the answer as well. Thought he'd fare better with John Carlson back in the lineup.

 

[amnesiac]

It was the Dead Puck Era and he himself was much older. As late as 97-98, he was 3rd in points behind only a prime Jagr and Forsberg. He was 37 by then! THEN he had a bad year at 38 and correctly retired. In any era he would've been great. It's helping Ovechkin that the game is opening up as he gets old. Ovechkin will be the best sniper of all-time and I hope he makes it official, but give Gretzky his due.

fair, but Gretzky stopped being a 40+ goal scorer at age 30 in the early 90s when scoring was still at an all-time high (1991-93 was at around 7.0-7.3 gpg). The DPE started as of the 94-95 season.

I mean Gretzky's first 14 seasons were in a gpg avg between 7-8 gpg.... thats absolutely insane!

Ovi played his WHOLE career between a gpg avg of about 5.4-6.3 gpg

Both were above and beyond their peers in terms of goalscoring, theres no debating that whatsoever. They are 1 and 2 in my book..... But in terms of "total goals" (which is what we're talking about), Gretzky (much like Bossy) benefitted MUCH MUCH more than someone like Ovi or Howe in their respective scoring eras.

 

[amnesiac]

@amnesiac has also long ignored the extreme amount of hockey already played and back issues when discussing Gretzky’s decline inside the 90s. Perhaps because of his own superhuman standards, but when reviewing his posts, Gretzky was supposed to pot 50 and score 150 points all the way through the end of his career, regardless of injuries, age, and mileage.

He has his stance and won’t change it.

my posts? please show me these alleged posts where I say "Gretzky was supposed to pot 50....". Im waiting.

As stated in my above post, Gretzky didnt even score over 40 at ages 30-32 when scoring was still VERY high. If injuries were part of him slowing down from then on, well isnt even MORE impressive that Ovi being the much more physical player that he is (and didnt have a Semenko protecting him) was still scoring 45+ from age 30-37?

I mean thats a HUGE part of his greatness if you ask me. Endurance and stamina IS part of being a great athlete believe it or not.

Btw, this is coming from someone who watched Gretzky. I just give credit where credit is due.

 

[MadLuke]

If Gretzky wouldn't have been so generous passing off to his teammates, he would have easily created more shots himself which would have resulted in more goals. He didn't have a shoot first mentality like Ovi.

It can go a bit both ways, team defense and goaltender fear and must respect what you can do passing wise to a teammate if they rush you it can open up your shooting lane and give space and time as well.

fair, but Gretzky stopped being a 40+ goal scorer at age 30 in the early 90s when scoring was still at an all-time high (1991-93 was at around 7.0-7.3 gpg). The DPE started as of the 94-95 season.

Everything after Suter incident will be a bit unfair to use against what 25 years old Gretzky do in 1998 scoring wise.

He could still score after the summer of 1991, but in short unsustained way, a good example would be the 1997 playoff, 10 goals in 15 games during the start of the DPE playoff hockey, against Vanbiesbrouck, Brodeur Devils and the Flyers that was a very solid team in that era. 30 years old Robitaille scored 4 that year, 28 years old Adam Graves scored 2.

I mean Gretzky's first 14 seasons were in a gpg avg between 7-8 gpg.... thats absolutely insane!

Ovi played his WHOLE career between a gpg avg of about 5.4-6.3 gpg

When Greztky scored 87 goals in just 74 games the average teams scored 3.95 goals a night that a lot, 3.12 this year, but scoring distribution can also change quite a bit over time (between top 6 guys and bottom 6 one, amount of power play, empty net goals, 3v3 overtime) impacting those.

Gretzky should still be top 5 all time in total adjusted goals, with just Howe-Ovechkin-Jagr cleanly above him

 

[amnesiac]

If Ovi played with Coffey, Kurri and Messier against 1980s 5'8 goalies he would have scored 1000 goals per season.

As to Gretzkys shooting mentality, so what? They both have the amount of goals they have. Im sure Ovi could have more assists if he had more of a passers mentality but that's entirely irrelevant.

except that Ovi would have grown up in the 70s and wouldnt have the shot and ability he has today. Its uncanny how people dont realise this when they make such a dumb comparison.

We'll be saying the same thing about Player X in 2050... "imagine if he played in Ovi's era with sub par goaltending, etc" blah blah blah

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

my posts? please show me these alleged posts where I say "Gretzky was supposed to pot 50....". Im waiting.

As stated in my above post, Gretzky didnt even score over 40 at ages 30-32 when scoring was still VERY high. If injuries were part of him slowing down from then on, well isnt even MORE impressive that Ovi being the much more physical player that he is (and didnt have a Semenko protecting him) was still scoring 45+ from age 30-37?

I mean thats a HUGE part of his greatness if you ask me. Endurance and stamina IS part of being a great athlete believe it or not.

Btw, this is coming from someone who watched Gretzky. I just give credit where credit is due.

You have to consider the type of assets they used to score their goals, though.

After the back injury started to take its toll, Gretzky became much more of a perimeter player. When he was healthy, he scored a lot of his goals in the slot area. But when his chronic back injury meant he played more on the perimeter, he didn't have the overpowering shot to bury a bunch of 30+ foot shots from the point/top of the circles.

In comparison, Ovechkin's always had that shot. He'll always be a threat even if his proficiency at generating chances in close goes down (which it has) because he can pump some 30+ footers to keep the totals higher.

 

[amnesiac]

When Greztky scored 87 goals in just 74 games the average teams scored 3.95 goals a night that a lot, 3.12 this year, but scoring distribution can also change quite a bit over time (between top 6 guys and bottom 6 one, amount of power play, empty net goals, 3v3 overtime) impacting those.

Gretzky should still be top 5 all time in total adjusted goals, with just Howe-Ovechkin-Jagr cleanly above him

im not debating that. Again, he was the top goalscorer for about a decade by a fairly wide margin, much like Ovi. The 2 greatest ever.

What Im debating is the goal totals here. Gretzky's numbers are inflated much like everyone who played in the 80s and early 90s. Thats all.

 

[McFlash97]

If Ovi played with Coffey, Kurri and Messier against 1980s 5'8 goalies he would have scored 1000 goals per season.

As to Gretzkys shooting mentality, so what? They both have the amount of goals they have. Im sure Ovi could have more assists if he had more of a passers mentality but that's entirely irrelevant.

Please bro. Give OV garbage wooden sticks and shxxx for skates and he wouldn't be close to 1000 goals. Same concept applies to Gretzky. Give him 3 on 3 overtime ? 4 on 4 ? Better equipment ? Watered down 32 team league ? Better nutrition and training ?

This is the same league where 18 year old 5ft9 inch Bedard can come in and pop 11 goals in like 20 games with ease. What do you think a modern Gretzky would have done ....

The lack of logic by some HF members when blurring out nonsensical Comparisons is bewildering.

 

[amnesiac]

You have to consider the type of assets they used to score their goals, though.

After the back injury started to take its toll, Gretzky became much more of a perimeter player. When he was healthy, he scored a lot of his goals in the slot area. But when his chronic back injury meant he played more on the perimeter, he didn't have the overpowering shot to bury a bunch of 30+ foot shots from the point/top of the circles.

In comparison, Ovechkin's always had that shot. He'll always be a threat even if his proficiency at generating chances in close goes down (which it has) because he can pump some 30+ footers to keep the totals higher.

Fine, but if Gretzky's lost his ability to "shoot well" because of wear and tear while Ovi did not.... then whats the debate here?? IF Gretzky was 100% healthy he wouldve continued to score 40+? I mean cmon.

Endurance is part of being a great athlete. And again, Im sorry but Ovi played a MUCH more physical game than Wayne ever did by a long shot. I guarantee Ovi's body took more abuse over the years than Gretzky with all the hits he dished out and received. Ovi just had a "better" frame, was the bigger physical specimen.... That doesnt/shouldnt take anything away from Ovi!

 

[Video Nasty]

my posts? please show me these alleged posts where I say "Gretzky was supposed to pot 50....". Im waiting.

As stated in my above post, Gretzky didnt even score over 40 at ages 30-32 when scoring was still VERY high. If injuries were part of him slowing down from then on, well isnt even MORE impressive that Ovi being the much more physical player that he is (and didnt have a Semenko protecting him) was still scoring 45+ from age 30-37?

I mean thats a HUGE part of his greatness if you ask me. Endurance and stamina IS part of being a great athlete believe it or not.

Btw, this is coming from someone who watched Gretzky. I just give credit where credit is due.

When you croon about the decline of Gretzky without any more context than “goalies and systems” magically figuring him out, that’s exactly what you’re doing.

 

[MadLuke]

Im sorry but Ovi played a MUCH more physical game than Wayne ever did by a long shot.

Yes but some of the boarding hit a la Suter became less common:

but if Gretzky's lost his ability to "shoot well" because of wear and tear while Ovi did not...

Able to get the shoots more than fully loosing his shoot, he was still winding old school slapshot in the net in the 90s from time to time:


Fully healthy Gretzky probably could have scored 40 goals 2-3 more time in the 90s, he missed by only 2 in 1994, everyone did it in 93, we can imagine it in 1992.

 

[amnesiac]

Yes but some of the boarding hit a la Suter became less common:



Able to get the shoots more than fully loosing his shoot, he was still winding old school slapshot in the net in the 90s from time to time:


Fully healthy Gretzky probably could scored 40 goals 2-3 more time in the 90s, he missed by only 2 in 1994, everyone did it in 93, we can imagine it in 1992.

Fine.... and even if he did, lets go over what Ovi put up as of age 30:

50
33
49
51
48 (in 68)
24 (in 45)
50
42 (in 73)

all in a 5.4-6.2 GPG avg era (with a salary cap might I add) where you couldnt build a dynasty with 5 or 6 HOFers.

This really shouldnt be a debate based on the scoring eras alone.

and I emphasize, yes Gretzky is the greatest player ever, scoring era or not. Goalscorer is Ovi.

 

[MadLuke]

Fine.... and even if he did, lets go over what Ovi put up as of age 30:

50, 33, 49, 51, 48 (in 68), 24 (in 45), 50, 42 (in 73)

No one in the history of the game is close to post 30 Ovi in goal scoring, maybe Mario Lemieux in a per game way, even Gordie Howe as "just" won the Rocket once past 28.

Brett Hull aged very well as a goal scorer, never had a Top 5, Selanne 2 top 10 including a top 3 is really special.

There is no question as would Gretzky without 1991 Suter incident keep with Ovechkin goal scoring wise, no.

 

[amnesiac]

No one in the history of the game is close to post 30 Ovi in goal scoring, maybe Mario Lemieux in a per game way, even Gordie Howe as "just" won the Rocket once past 28.

Brett Hull aged very well as a goal scorer, never had a Top 5, Selanne 2 top 10 including a top 3 is really special.

There is no question as would Gretzky without 1991 Suter incident keep with Ovechkin goal scoring wise, no.

and career you say Gretzky is the greatest goalscorer ever given the sheer difference in scoring eras?

 

[MadLuke]

and career you say Gretzky is the greatest goalscorer ever given the sheer difference in scoring eras?

I can see the argument for Gretzky being the greatest goalscorer but does not feel right to me, in the conversation to be in the top 5, as a said just above:
Howe-Ovechkin-Jagr are cleanly above him career wise adjusted so I do not have Gretzky goal total that high versus some.

In the recent past it was between Hull, Hull, Bure, Lemieux, Ovechkin, Richard, Bossy, Gretzky, with my preference for Richard vs Lemieux, with how Ovechkin aged it became more and more hard to argue that he is not the greatest ever at it.

Lemieux could have been the best and most versatile scorer ever and Richard still the one to pick in you need a goal in the playoff or about to play in overtime even if Ovechkin is the greatest at it, but he did it more than them.

 

[Hank Plank]

Gretzky with current training, nutrition and equipment technology would massively amplify his skills he'd be McDavid x2.