Will Ovechkin hit 20 goals this season?

[serp]

People were saying these exact same things about Ovi years ago

He wasn't 38 back then though .

 

[centipede2233]

From what can be observed through public information, it seems like Ovechkin likes to drink.

Drinking can quickly catch up to people, especially as they get older and closer to 40 years of age.

Makes sense.

 

[ijuka]

I was watching him playing last night. His shot looked fine, but otherwise, he was a non-factor, and not a threat at all. He doesn't really have any presence. Getting outscored by Wilson and Strome is not a good look. And at this point, it's not just a couple of games. 23 is a pretty significant amount.

Do I expect him to shoot at 6% this season? No. Do I see him getting 30 goals? No.

 

[Hanji]

As durable as he has been, ovie doesn’t strike me as a health nut and could be a huge hinderence as he ages.

From what can be observed through public information, it seems like Ovechkin likes to drink.

Drinking can quickly catch up to people, especially as they get older and closer to 40 years of age.

It's awesome. Ovechkin is such a GOAT that ppl need to find weird reasons for his decline at 38. Drinking, poor conditioning, nutrition?

Players with poor off-ice habits aren't in the NHL in their mid/late 30s, no matter how good they are. Not happening in today's game.

Take it from a fitness nut in his 40s; the body's ability to regenerate itself can fall off a cliff at that age, quickly.
Father time is undefeated.

 

[Old Gregg]

Makes sense.

I have also always wondered how seriously Ovechkin took offseason training. Dude is built like a tank and has a lot of natural talent but the league is getting faster and I don't get the impression he is a guy who likes to go to the gym

 

[Lou Sassole]

I was watching him playing last night. His shot looked fine, but otherwise, he was a non-factor, and not a threat at all. He doesn't really have any presence. Getting outscored by Wilson and Strome is not a good look. And at this point, it's not just a couple of games. 23 is a pretty significant amount.

Do I expect him to shoot at 6% this season? No. Do I see him getting 30 goals? No.

Somethings up with him physically/mentally. He doesn't look engaged, and isn't even hitting.

 

[filinski77]

mental exercises needed to come up with this wack theory makes this conclusion even more absurd .

Wayne Gretzky is the greatest goal scorer of all time until the day he is passed.

So by your EXACT logic... Blake Wheeler is a greater point scorer than McDavid is RIGHT NOW?

 

[Hank Plank]

So by your EXACT logic... Blake Wheeler is a greater point scorer than McDavid is RIGHT NOW?

What? This makes no sense.

 

[filinski77]

What? This makes no sense.

How does the comparison not make sense? It's clearly illustrating how flawed of an argument was being used by McFlash.

He said "Wayne Gretzky is the greatest goal scorer of all time until the day he is passed."
-> His only logic used in his argument is that Gretzky is the GOAT goal scorer because he has the highest raw totals. And that Ovechkin can't pass him until he passes those raw totals.

So I used the exact same argument against him to show how poor of an argument it is. Blake Wheeler has more raw points in his career than McDavid does right now. So by McFlash's logic, if McDavid retired today and did not surpass Wheeler in raw points, Wheeler would be a greater point scorer in the all-time rankings than McDavid.

It's simple...

 

[Hallzy]

How does the comparison not make sense? It's clearly illustrating how flawed of an argument was being used by McFlash.

He said "Wayne Gretzky is the greatest goal scorer of all time until the day he is passed."
-> His only logic used in his argument is that Gretzky is the GOAT goal scorer because he has the highest raw totals. And that Ovechkin can't pass him until he passes those raw totals.

So I used the exact same argument against him to show how poor of an argument it is. Blake Wheeler has more raw points in his career than McDavid does right now. So by McFlash's logic, if McDavid retired today and did not surpass Wheeler in raw points, Wheeler would be a greater point scorer in the all-time rankings than McDavid.

It's simple...

Except for the fact that OV is within 100 GP of Gretzky. Wheeler has played over 500 games more than McDavid. Your "comparison" is far from "comparable"

 

[filinski77]

Except for the fact that OV is within 100 GP of Gretzky. Wheeler has played over 500 games more than McDavid. Your "comparison" is far from "comparable"

The initial poster made no mention of GP or any additional important context. My whole point is that it was a bad argument, and I responded with a (purposeful) bad argument to address that.

 

[Nasti]

Leave it to an Ovechkin thread for Oilers and Kings fans to come together.

 

[YippieKaey]

except that Ovi would have grown up in the 70s and wouldnt have the shot and ability he has today. Its uncanny how people dont realise this when they make such a dumb comparison.

We'll be saying the same thing about Player X in 2050... "imagine if he played in Ovi's era with sub par goaltending, etc" blah blah blah

Exactly. They have the goals they have.

Please bro. Give OV garbage wooden sticks and shxxx for skates and he wouldn't be close to 1000 goals. Same concept applies to Gretzky. Give him 3 on 3 overtime ? 4 on 4 ? Better equipment ? Watered down 32 team league ? Better nutrition and training ?

This is the same league where 18 year old 5ft9 inch Bedard can come in and pop 11 goals in like 20 games with ease. What do you think a modern Gretzky would have done ....

The lack of logic by some HF members when blurring out nonsensical Comparisons is bewildering.

Just so you know, Gretzky played in a much higher scoring era than Ovi. That's a fact and your emotions are irrelevant but admirable.

 

[abax44]

He wasn't 38 back then though .

He sure looked it though.

 

[serp]

He sure looked it though.

Maybe so but he's now at an age other greats have completely fallen off too. See for example Gretzkys last year . Much more difficult to turn it on again in your late 30's .

 

[Crosby2010]

Probably a combination of slump plus age.

He might be injured too.

Although I have always been surprised in regards to his consistent powerplay production.

As you mentioned, it has always been based on that one-timer from the exact same spot in the offensive zone.

I am dumbfounded how professional hockey league teams allowed themselves to get burned by the exact same play for almost 20 years.

If I was an NHL coach running the penalty kill, I would have had 1 player standing within a stick's length of him at all times.

My attitude would have been: "I know with 100% certainty what the Capitals game-plan is. They are going to pass it to Ovechkin for a one-timer at the top of the circle. I am not going to allow them to do that. I will go 4-on-3 for the remaining areas of the zone. They will have to figure out another way to beat us because I refuse to allow Ovechkin's predictable one-timer to beat us".

It seems exactly like what Brett Hull once said. He said NHL coaches are stupid.

I can totally picture Hull saying that, and he is right. Hull himself scored a ton of goals that way, not quite like Ovechkin, but still good enough where you have to wonder why someone just wasn't glued to him constantly. Ovechkin would definitely be worth just sticking around and taking your chances on a 4-on-3 power play. Make the Capitals change their game plan around. I'd do it. You know that one-timer is coming eventually, keep someone there to make sure it never sees the light of day. I don't know why teams didn't employ that in their game plan.

 

[Crosby2010]

So now at 827 career goals, and 68 from breaking the record, do his odds look less now than even at the beginning of the season? I believe he has a contract with the Caps until 2026. So as it stands now I can't see him breaking it in the 2025 season. Depending how things go, and if he keeps playing and injuries are not a factor, he is now at the point where I think his best case scenario is breaking the record in the 2025-'26 season.

Because right now I am trying to think of a time in his career where he scored 5 goals in 23 games. The best I could see with him was a 23 game span in November of 2010 to January of 2011 where he had 4 goals in 23 games, but nothing other than that tops his streak now.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

Continue this pace, i think he could struggle to get 10 goals this season.
9 straight games without a goal, 3 goals in his last 18 games.

His season pace is currently at 16, but his last 18 game pace is 12.
and his last 10 game pace, 8 goals...

 

[overlords]

From what can be observed through public information, it seems like Ovechkin likes to drink.

Drinking can quickly catch up to people, especially as they get older and closer to 40 years of age.

People? Yes. Russians? Maybe.

 

[abax44]

Maybe so but he's now at an age other greats have completely fallen off too. See for example Gretzkys last year . Much more difficult to turn it on again in your late 30's .

I was just sarcastically referring to his grey hair and dad-bod. As far as 38 yr old NHLers go, he's doing just fine.

 

[King'sPawn]

It's cool to have an easy indicator of people who never watched Gretzky play. They can't just admire Ovechkin's accomplishments.

 

[serp]

I was just sarcastically referring to his grey hair and dad-bod. As far as 38 yr old NHLers go, he's doing just fine.

I mean sure he's still a top6 ish player even if very diminished compared to his former self . Still compared to just last season its been a very noticeable drop. Not the first great player this type of drop in just one offseason has happened to but sucks it happens when there was/is a chance to break a record like that.

 

[abax44]

I mean sure he's still a top6 ish player even if very diminished compared to his former self . Still compared to just last season its been a very noticeable drop. Not the first great player this type of drop in just one offseason has happened to but sucks it happens when there was/is a chance to break a record like that.

True enough.

 

[stephenball]

Father Time or is he playing injured? What’s your assessment?

I think both, and they also kind of go hand in hand. I think for so long Ovechkin was a physical freak that got away with not busting his ass training, and that gets harder when you get older and more beaten down. I think he’s just trying to be who he always has been and can’t do it. I do however think he can get back to a more respectable performance level if he commits himself and learns to play within his bounds, but we’ll have to see. It’ll be a bad season this year, but will have to see how things change.

 

[njdevils1982]

i watched his last two games... has this been his play all season?