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Will Ovechkin hit 20 goals this season?

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I'm assuming he's injured with a major groin injury he knows would make him miss a ton of time which would put his chances of breaking Gretzky's record in jeopardy. It would also account for why he's so slow.

One of the greatest hockey players ever hasn't forgotten how to play hockey and light it up in a matter of a few months.

Something else is up.
 
Ovechkin's ice-time the last three games is:

15:32
14.45
13:37

This is much less than the normal 19-21 minutes he has played most of his career.

Are the Capitals benching him? Or is he injured?
 
Ice time, shots percentages, seem unsustanable low, he will no go from 15% to 6.5% I imagine, career low was 8.7% single time under 10%

But at that current pace he would need 283 game to beat the record, almost 3 almost full 78 games seasons after this one, if there is a lock-out again after the 2025-2026 season at that pace it could get rough.
 
Strat said:
I'm assuming he's injured with a major groin injury he knows would make him miss a ton of time which would put his chances of breaking Gretzky's record in jeopardy. It would also account for why he's so slow.

One of the greatest hockey players ever hasn't forgotten how to play hockey and light it up in a matter of a few months.

Something else is up.
Click to expand...
I mean when you're 38 yes that can happen. Sometimes players fall off a cliff at the end of their careers.
 
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Strat said:
I'm assuming he's injured with a major groin injury he knows would make him miss a ton of time which would put his chances of breaking Gretzky's record in jeopardy. It would also account for why he's so slow.

One of the greatest hockey players ever hasn't forgotten how to play hockey and light it up in a matter of a few months.

Something else is up.
Click to expand...
Father time is up and has been for a while and the team could only shelter it for so long.

We went through this in Vancouver were people were making all sorts of excuses for the Sedins when their actual impact had really dropped off.

I think people really underestimate how fine the line is when father time actually does catch up.

With well over 100 minutes of PP TOI and only 1 goal to show for it I really wonder if he breaks the record now and even if he does it's going to be a long painful stretch as we aren't talking about his goal scoring most days because in most games he doesn't score or even really matter now.

Devilsfan2326 said:
How many posts has he hit this year?
Click to expand...
He has hit the crossbar once this season.

Last season it was 7 posts and 4 crossbars.
 
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Strat said:
I'm assuming he's injured with a major groin injury he knows would make him miss a ton of time which would put his chances of breaking Gretzky's record in jeopardy. It would also account for why he's so slow.

One of the greatest hockey players ever hasn't forgotten how to play hockey and light it up in a matter of a few months.

Something else is up.
Click to expand...
Every player ever did forget how to play and light it up as you put it. For some it happened slowly, for others it was a quick fall off the cliff. Maybe Ovi is injured, or maybe father time caught up to him. Both are realistic when you're 38.
 
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jcs0218 said:
Ovechkin's ice-time the last three games is:

15:32
14.45
13:37

This is much less than the normal 19-21 minutes he has played most of his career.

Are the Capitals benching him? Or is he injured?
Click to expand...

Maybe Ovechkin burned himself out by playing almost 25 minutes against San Jose and Edmonton?

Caps only had 1 power play last game Vs Vegas, if they get 3-4 PPs his ice time would be normal for that game.
 
GrandmaCookie said:
Needless to say, he won't break Gretzky's goal scoring record.
Click to expand...
I've been around here a long time. Easy to recall how an overwhelming majority for a long time thought it would be fortunate for Ovechkin to break 700 with aggressive and physical style. Then it become a foregone conclusion he'd break Gretzky, now in a matter of months it's all of a sudden no chancevill? Please.

He'll probably finish between 21-25 this year me thinks. Remember he only hit 32 in his age 25 season in 79 games I believe.
 
Luigi Lemieux said:
I mean when you're 38 yes that can happen. Sometimes players fall off a cliff at the end of their careers.
Click to expand...
I was 39 when I fell off the cliff

In the span of one winter, I went from playing multiple sports for decades, with no serious injuries, to dealing with recurring lower back and knee pain, and a drop in endurance

Unless you experience it, you really can’t appreciate how fast a body can break down
 
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The way I see it, he probably has 3 seasons to beat the record. At the start of this season (age 38) he needed 73 goals.

For example
27 (age 38 all season)
25 (age 39)
21 (age 40)
=73

He's said he's not going to play just to chase the record so I doubt he'll start any season expecting to score less than 20 while getting close to all the PP-time.

The moment his PP-time gets cut (by Ovechkin) his production will dip even more, but if he can sustain some ES-scoring I could see him play 15-goal seasons and not be a detriment with his playmaking.

If his current pace of 19 in 82 is close to his real pace:

22 (age 38)
21 (age 39)
15 (age 40) plays half the PP
15 (age 41)
=73
 
Yeah, after the current contract, I doubt Ovechkin would continue playing for a small sum. After it ends, he might return to Russia and play in KHL for a year or two, where he will receive a massive contract just for publicity. So he should have these three seasons to break this record.

This current season, he's not been completely terrible, but he also hasn't looked very dangerous or threatening. He certainly hasn't been deserving of the ice time that he's been receiving. And Capitals might not have a very bright future. They're probably heading towards a rebuild.

Considering that, I really feel like this season, he would need to score a good 30 goals in order to break the record, but that's looking like a tall order at this point.
 
I would argue he’d need to bank 40 this year just to get ahead of the accelerating age curve. The declines will only get steeper from here.
 
ijuka said:
Yeah, after the current contract, I doubt Ovechkin would continue playing for a small sum. After it ends, he might return to Russia and play in KHL for a year or two, where he will receive a massive contract just for publicity. So he should have these three seasons to break this record.
Click to expand...
I don't think money you can make playing hockey really matters that much when you have couple of hundred millions in career earnings. Whatever his motivations are going to be at that point, it's very unlikely money would still be playing a major role.
 
ijuka said:
Yeah, after the current contract, I doubt Ovechkin would continue playing for a small sum. After it ends, he might return to Russia and play in KHL for a year or two, where he will receive a massive contract just for publicity. So he should have these three seasons to break this record.

This current season, he's not been completely terrible, but he also hasn't looked very dangerous or threatening. He certainly hasn't been deserving of the ice time that he's been receiving. And Capitals might not have a very bright future. They're probably heading towards a rebuild.

Considering that, I really feel like this season, he would need to score a good 30 goals in order to break the record, but that's looking like a tall order at this point.
Click to expand...

I mean they are, the only question is when are they willing to truly commit to it.

Because of Ovys chase Caps fans could have dark 10 years ahead of them.
Avoid rebuild for the next few years and then start from the scratch
 
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