Will Ovechkin hit 20 goals this season?

[Scandale du Jour]

If you adjust that down to a 30 goal pace the rest of the season it works out to 27 goals.

I think he finishes around 30.

That's work for me. Between 25 and 30 seems to be the most realistic number.

That being said, with all-time greats, it is more difficult to predict.

 

[Hippasus]

I don't think Gretzky's career goal total was even considered untouchable. His career points total, 50 in 39, 215, and 92 are untouchable.

His career assists total too, of course. If there are drastic rule changes at some point, though, anything is possible.

 

[Strangle]

I don't think Gretzky's career goal total was even considered untouchable. His career points total, 50 in 39, 215, and 92 are untouchable.

The Great One: Wayne Gretzky's 15 Most Unbreakable Records

In every professional sport, there is always at least one athlete who is considered to be the best. In golf, you can argue between Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus, in tennis, you can say Pete Sampras or

www.thesportster.com

Check out #4 on this list, in an article from 2016. The all time goal record was thought unbreakable when Howe owned it. And Gretzky crushed it

 

[super6646]

Caps have the worst powerplay in the league at a dismal 5.7%

Kurk Muller ruined Ovechkin... that's incredible.

Just as a heads up to caps fans, he was an awful PP coach in Calgary too.

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

Yeah the goals total was never considered “untouchable”. The total points and assist totals certainly seem to fall under the untouchable label.

Especially with how different the game is today.

 

[Miro4Norris]

Nope. Probably 19 goals. 9 of them empty netters

 

[HTFN]

Yeah the goals total was never considered “untouchable”. The total points and assist totals certainly seem to fall under the untouchable label.

Especially with how different the game is today.

lol it absolutely was, this revisionist history as it's become feasible is ridiculous.

 

[jigglysquishy]

lol it absolutely was, this revisionist history as it's become feasible is ridiculous.

Of all of Gretzky's career accomplishments it was always by far his most breakable.

Vs10 in each category at time of retirement

Points: 1.95
Goals: 1.48
Assists: 2.20

Howe had more regular season goals WHA+NHL combined than Gretzky too.

 

[Strangle]

lol it absolutely was, this revisionist history as it's become feasible is ridiculous.

Where were these people 15-20 years ago? Of course 894 was considered untouchable.

I just provided an article from 2016 that lists it as one of his ‘unbreakable’ records.

Kids, man

Yeah the goals total was never considered “untouchable”. The total points and assist totals certainly seem to fall under the untouchable label.

Especially with how different the game is today.

How can you be serious? You know what ‘never’ means?

The record was considered ‘unbreakable’ before Gretzky broke it too. He just made it ‘super’ unbreakable

 

[Strangle]

Of all of Gretzky's career accomplishments it was always by far his most breakable.

Vs10 in each category at time of retirement

Points: 1.95
Goals: 1.48
Assists: 2.20

Howe had more regular season goals WHA+NHL combined than Gretzky too.

Where does it say anywhere that 894 was not considered unbreakable?

Here is another article referencing its ‘unbreakable’ status

Quote from the beginning of the article

Wayne Gretzky’s NHL record of 894 career goals was once considered unbreakable.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/12/24/most-unbreakable-sports-records/

Here is some discussion from 2015 about which of Gretzky’s records are most breakable.

Does anyone mention the 894 goal record?

NHL Blog Council: '12 Days of Christmas' terror

Which of Gretzky's records will fall first? And which NHL player should we terrorize with birds?

www.sbnation.com

 

[Strangle]

Of all of Gretzky's career accomplishments it was always by far his most breakable.

Vs10 in each category at time of retirement

Points: 1.95
Goals: 1.48
Assists: 2.20

Howe had more regular season goals WHA+NHL combined than Gretzky too.

Somewhere around 2006 this guy was sitting around thinking

“You know what? 18 seasons straight of 50 goal average sounds achievable to me. This record is totally breakable”

 

[Randyne]

Yeah the goals total was never considered “untouchable”

Of all of Gretzky's career accomplishments it was always by far his most breakable

I don't think Gretzky's career goal total was even considered untouchable

A thread from 2014:

Will Ovechkin catch Gretzky in career goals?

Will Ovechkin catch Gretzky in career goals?

forums.hfboards.com

Posters:

He'd have to have 10 more 50 goal season, so no not a chance

I say no, not a chance.

Is it likely? No.

i can see him passing hull thats as high as i see him

Was hoping a mod would simply reply "No." and close the thread.

mod:

Not a chance, so lets get real here...Belatedly..... "no"....Closed.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Somewhere around 2006 this guy was sitting around thinking

“You know what? 18 seasons straight of 50 goal average sounds achievable to me. This record is totally breakable”

It's not a 2006 thing. It's broader.

Could Howe have broken 894 if he had his rejuvenation in the NHL instead of the WHA? Absolutely. If Howe is born 5 years later and peaks in a higher scoring era he beats 894.

Was Lemieux skilled enough to best 894? Absolutely. He hit 690 while missing half his prime.

Could Bossy or Hull beaten it in different circumstances? Possibly. Bossy didn't play his back half. Hull scored over 900 major pro regular season goals.

That Gretzky held the record was a testament to peaking in a high scoring era and having circumstances not go the competition's way.


No one was beating Gretzky's assist record. Give Howe a high scoring ers he doesn't do it. Give Lemieux perfect health he doesn't do it.

Look at it on a per 20 year basis.

Goals: 45 goals a year does it. This total is bested every year, but no one (until Ovechkin) had the longevity.
Assists: 98 assists per year. Only Gretzky, Lemieux, and Orr ever hit this in a single year let alone 20 years in a row.
Points: 143 points. McDavid was the first to hit this number in 27 years. Only 9 players have even hit this in a season.

The fact that Ovechkin is going to beat it while spending half his career in a low scoring era is testament to it.

Howe hit 800 despite peaking in one of the lowest scoring eras ever. Jagr hit 766 despite his Capitals whining tour/jumping ship to the KHL.

Look at it this way. Jagr scored 85% as many goals as Gretzky. But only 67% as many points or 58% as many assists.

It's an all time record. Of course it's not easy. But it should have never been viewed as unbreakable.

 

[Hippasus]

That this record was considered unbreakable is something I started hearing retoactively when Ovechkin was racking up 50 goal seasons in the mid-10s. I was a kid from the Edmonton area when Gretzky beat Howe in total goals, so I have some perspective on this. Maybe one or two sources said it back then, if any, but I think that particular record did not actually have such a status in public opinion.

 

[SkinsFan09]

All I know is the Capitals are 12-6-2 so we can stop the "they're only trying to get Ovechkin the record" rhetoric that was foolishly being parroted by lazy fans.

This while having a historically bad powerplay. They certainly wouldn't have hired that PP coach from Calgary if they cared that much.

 

[Strangle]

It's not a 2006 thing. It's broader.

Could Howe have broken 894 if he had his rejuvenation in the NHL instead of the WHA? Absolutely. If Howe is born 5 years later and peaks in a higher scoring era he beats 894.

Was Lemieux skilled enough to best 894? Absolutely. He hit 690 while missing half his prime.

Could Bossy or Hull beaten it in different circumstances? Possibly. Bossy didn't play his back half. Hull scored over 900 major pro regular season goals.

That Gretzky held the record was a testament to peaking in a high scoring era and having circumstances not go the competition's way.


No one was beating Gretzky's assist record. Give Howe a high scoring ers he doesn't do it. Give Lemieux perfect health he doesn't do it.

Look at it on a per 20 year basis.

Goals: 45 goals a year does it. This total is bested every year, but no one (until Ovechkin) had the longevity.
Assists: 98 assists per year. Only Gretzky, Lemieux, and Orr ever hit this in a single year let alone 20 years in a row.
Points: 143 points. McDavid was the first to hit this number in 27 years. Only 9 players have even hit this in a season.

The fact that Ovechkin is going to beat it while spending half his career in a low scoring era is testament to it.

Howe hit 800 despite peaking in one of the lowest scoring eras ever. Jagr hit 766 despite his Capitals whining tour/jumping ship to the KHL.

Look at it this way. Jagr scored 85% as many goals as Gretzky. But only 67% as many points or 58% as many assists.

It's an all time record. Of course it's not easy. But it should have never been viewed as unbreakable.

You’re making massive assumptions about many many things.

1st, is that you’re tying this to era as if Gretzky wasn’t the driving force in his own era and its scoring. Without Gretzky, there is no ‘high scoring era’ in the 80’s.

People who push era adjusted stats or reference ‘high scoring era’s’ don’t seem to understand this.

Compare the 60’s to today.

The high scoring 80’s started and ended with Gretzky’s career.

The other biggest assumption you’re making is ‘what if’. Similar to era arguments, but different.

‘What if bossy scored 50 goals 19 years in a row?’ Well, he didn’t even comes close. He got about half way there.

‘What if Lemieux was healthy?’ Well, he wasn’t. That’s part of it. How can you stay healthy for 20 years and score like Gretzky?

Gretzky couldn’t even stay healthy, but he was scoring at such an incredible pace for the first half of his career, that a pedestrian back half doesn’t matter to his stats.

If Ovechkin had a second half of his career in goal scoring like Gretzky did, we wouldn’t even be talking about him.

None of this is appropriate to be massaging or pointing at ‘what if’.

No one thinks Matthews is going to be able to catch Gretzky, because the idea is literally crazy. No one thought Ovechkin would get this close, because that was crazy.

Let me play the game you’re playing. ‘What if Gretzky was healthy and kept scoring like the front half of his career?’

Well? What if? Does Gretzky get the same massaging that you’re giving bossy, or Lemieux? Are you ready to give Gretzky 70 goal seasons that he didn’t score?

Of course not. Because the only reason era adjusting stats even exist is to try to make sense of Gretzky.

So if you’re going to do ‘what if’ try to be consistent and give all players the same allowances. Or just don’t do that, you don’t have to.

Longevity and health is how Ovechkin has gotten this close to begin with, something That Gretzky wasn’t blessed with.

But no one says ‘well, if Gretzky was healthy he would have score 1,200 goals’. But you’ll say ‘if bossy was healthy…..’

Ovechkin didn’t score 70, 80, 90 goals in a season. But he’s had more consistency with much lower peaks that Gretzky did. Due to health and longevity.

That’s part of the feat. Catching Gretzky in career goals was never thought to be anything less than unbreakable, because it’s something that would take 20 years to do. How many players have 20 year careers in the NHL? How many players score at almost a 1.0 gpg pace for 13 straight years? How many players score 40 or 50 goal season in their late 30’s or early 40’s?

No one.

That’s why it’s unbreakable.

18 years of 50 goal seasons, or 15 years of 60, 70, 80, 90 goal seasons is the only way to do it.

Neither is or ever has been thought to be ‘doable’

We have the real, actual numbers. There is no reason not to use them

 

[Beukeboom]

You’re making massive assumptions about many many things.

1st, is that you’re tying this to era as if Gretzky wasn’t the driving force in his own era and its scoring. Without Gretzky, there is no ‘high scoring era’ in the 80’s.

People who push era adjusted stats or reference ‘high scoring era’s’ don’t seem to understand this.

Compare the 60’s to today.

The high scoring 80’s started and ended with Gretzky’s career.

The other biggest assumption you’re making is ‘what if’. Similar to era arguments, but different.

‘What if bossy scored 50 goals 19 years in a row?’ Well, he didn’t even comes close. He got about half way there.

‘What if Lemieux was healthy?’ Well, he wasn’t. That’s part of it. How can you stay healthy for 20 years and score like Gretzky?

Gretzky couldn’t even stay healthy, but he was scoring at such an incredible pace for the first half of his career, that a pedestrian back half doesn’t matter to his stats.

If Ovechkin had a second half of his career in goal scoring like Gretzky did, we wouldn’t even be talking about him.

None of this is appropriate to be massaging or pointing at ‘what if’.

No one thinks Matthews is going to be able to catch Gretzky, because the idea is literally crazy. No one thought Ovechkin would get this close, because that was crazy.

Let me play the game you’re playing. ‘What if Gretzky was healthy and kept scoring like the front half of his career?’

Well? What if? Does Gretzky get the same massaging that you’re giving bossy, or Lemieux? Are you ready to give Gretzky 70 goal seasons that he didn’t score?

Of course not. Because the only reason era adjusting stats even exist is to try to make sense of Gretzky.

So if you’re going to do ‘what if’ try to be consistent and give all players the same allowances. Or just don’t do that, you don’t have to.

Longevity and health is how Ovechkin has gotten this close to begin with, something That Gretzky wasn’t blessed with.

But no one says ‘well, if Gretzky was healthy he would have score 1,200 goals’. But you’ll say ‘if bossy was healthy…..’

Ovechkin didn’t score 70, 80, 90 goals in a season. But he’s had more consistency with much lower peaks that Gretzky did. Due to health and longevity.

That’s part of the feat. Catching Gretzky in career goals was never thought to be anything less than unbreakable, because it’s something that would take 20 years to do. How many players have 20 year careers in the NHL? How many players score at almost a 1.0 gpg pace for 13 straight years? How many players score 40 or 50 goal season in their late 30’s or early 40’s?

No one.

That’s why it’s unbreakable.

18 years of 50 goal seasons, or 15 years of 60, 70, 80, 90 goal seasons is the only way to do it.

Neither is or ever has been thought to be ‘doable’

We have the real, actual numbers. There is no reason not to use them

That's funny and so true.

A bit OT but always nice to see someone put the "what if" crowds in place.

No one thought Ovie could break Wayne's records and the few that dared suggest it as early as 7-8 years ago were chased out of the village with pitch forks.

 

[PaulD]

He’s the points leader on a team that’s sitting 6th in the league in P% at 38 years old. This entire thread seems to be people working themselves up about a hypothetical that isn’t currently happening.

unless you've watched him play. He's either moving slow or standing still.

 

[PaulD]

That's funny and so true.

A bit OT but always nice to see someone put the "what if" crowds in place.

No one thought Ovie could break Wayne's records and the few that dared suggest it as early as 7-7-8 years ago were chased out of the village with pitch forks.

easy with the drama

What OV has done is amazing. His endurance is off the charts.
But it's a legit conversation when some one asks if it looks like he may come up short of Wayne's record.......solely based oh how he looks out on the ice this season. OV is slow and his shot is not getting off as fast as we are accustomed to seeing.

 

[Beukeboom]

easy with the drama

What OV has done is amazing. His endurance is off the charts.
But it's a legit conversation when some one asks if it looks like he may come up short of Wayne's record.......solely based oh how he looks out on the ice this season. OV is slow and his shot is not getting off as fast as we are accustomed to seeing.

Oh I'm not sure he'll break the record. I never thought it was possible until two seasons ago or so.

I'm a huge Gretzky fan so if he breaks it I hope it's in a decisive way and not through several seasons of 20 ish goals of which half are empty netters. The way he's out there chasing easy goals feels a bit so so sometimes.

 

[Strangle]

easy with the drama

What OV has done is amazing. His endurance is off the charts.
But it's a legit conversation when some one asks if it looks like he may come up short of Wayne's record.......solely based oh how he looks out on the ice this season. OV is slow and his shot is not getting off as fast as we are accustomed to seeing.

We were talking about people now saying “Gretzky’s goal record was never considered unbreakable”

And then saying something like “Mike Bossy scored a lot of goals. He didn’t score 894 goals, but, like … he could have, ya know? So of course we always knew Gretzky’s goal record was breakable”

Ovechkin still needs, like 70 goals? There is no guarantee he will make it. That’s still a lot of goals.

Even 4 years ago, I didn’t think getting this close would be possible. No one expects 40 goal seasons out of 36+ year old players.

I still think he might not make it. It’s boggling my mind to admit that he’s this close.

I don’t know if he will or not, but it’s an exciting ride

 

[ChrisProngersEYE]

I haven't watched a single Capitals game, can anyone comment on how he looks?

Tall and Russian often wears white or red

 

[PaulD]

We were talking about people now saying “Gretzky’s goal record was never considered unbreakable”

And then saying something like “Mike Bossy scored a lot of goals. He didn’t score 894 goals, but, like … he could have, ya know? So of course we always knew Gretzky’s goal record was breakable”

Ovechkin still needs, like 70 goals? There is no guarantee he will make it. That’s still a lot of goals.

Even 4 years ago, I didn’t think getting this close would be possible. No one expects 40 goal seasons out of 36+ year old players.

I still think he might not make it. It’s boggling my mind to admit that he’s this close.

I don’t know if he will or not, but it’s an exciting ride

agreed.
4 or 5 years ago I would have bet he couldn't catch Wayne. Then about a year and a half ago I started to think "OV is gonna do it"
Amazing , and what doesn't gat mentioned a lot I'd that he's done this playing such a physical game. Throws a ton of hits.
Hopefully for Alex this is a scoring slump and he has a better second half.

 

[hamzarocks]

The Great One: Wayne Gretzky's 15 Most Unbreakable Records

In every professional sport, there is always at least one athlete who is considered to be the best. In golf, you can argue between Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus, in tennis, you can say Pete Sampras or

www.thesportster.com

Check out #4 on this list, in an article from 2016. The all time goal record was thought unbreakable when Howe owned it. And Gretzky crushed it

Gretzky didnt crush it

He broke it b/c

1) Howe went to the WHA when he was still a 30 goal guy in the NHL. He ahpuld have 920-950 NHL goals
2) Lemieux injuries/health

Ovechkin is the GOAT goal scorer allready. He has the most rockets/goal scoring titles, most consistent goal scorer (no 20 goal seasons in his career) played in lower scoring era then 99 and 66

Ovechkin if he had stayed a 50-60 assist guy would have been 3rd or 4th best all time. His playmaking being dog ass for majority of his career dropped him to fringe top 10 (9-13 range for me)

 

[Hank Plank]

Haven't been keeping track how's he doing?