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Will Ovechkin hit 20 goals this season?

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I said on the Caps GDT last night, in games like this my thought used to be “I guess the only thing to root for now is an Ovechkin goal”, but I don’t even have that thought this season. It’s more like “my wildest dream today is Ovechkin being visible”. He’s had rough stretches in his career where the pucks aren’t going in, but in those stretches he was still himself, this season he has looked like a ghost of himself.
 
stephenball said:
I said on the Caps GDT last night, in games like this my thought used to be “I guess the only thing to root for now is an Ovechkin goal”, but I don’t even have that thought this season. It’s more like “my wildest dream today is Ovechkin being visible”. He’s had rough stretches in his career where the pucks aren’t going in, but in those stretches he was still himself, this season he has looked like a ghost of himself.
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The old cliche about Father Timr being undefeated.
 
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Well it's definitely the weakest start of his career. I still think he hits 30, but that's probably it. For comparison, his two lowest goal totals 22 games in were 2011-12 and 2012-13

2011-12 22 GP 8 G 9 A 17 P
2012-13- 22 GP 9 G 11 A 20 P

2023-24 22 GP 5 G 9 A 14 P

Ovechkin is also playing in the highest scoring season of his career.

It's pretty stark.
 
jigglysquishy said:
Well it's definitely the weakest start of his career. I still think he hits 30, but that's probably it. For comparison, his two lowest goal totals 22 games in were 2011-12 and 2012-13

2011-12 22 GP 8 G 9 A 17 P
2012-13- 22 GP 9 G 11 A 20 P

2023-24 22 GP 5 G 9 A 14 P

Ovechkin is also playing in the highest scoring season of his career.

It's pretty stark.
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He did technically go on to score 23 goals in his next 26 games in 2012-2013 after that poor start, and win the hart. So it's not like he's unsured to hot streaks in his career after bad stretches.

Obviously he's older now, but I still wouldn't be shocked to see him get hot all of a sudden and end up with ~40+ by year end.
 
bobholly39 said:
He did technically go on to score 23 goals in his next 26 games in 2012-2013 after that poor start, and win the hart. So it's not like he's unsured to hot streaks in his career after bad stretches.

Obviously he's older now, but I still wouldn't be shocked to see him get hot all of a sudden and end up with ~40+ by year end.
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I really do think the age will be the kicker. He's the 9th oldest player in the league right now.

Alex Goligoski looked cooked last season and missed 15 games to injury this year.
Corey Perry probably isn't getting another contract.
Jeff Carter has been a healthy scratch this season.

Ovechkin is really the 6th oldest NHL regular going forward.

Bellemare and Giordano are pending UFAs and likely done. Burns and Pavelski look strong. Suter hasn't, but I still think he plays next year.

We are likely looking at a 2024-25 year with Ovechkin as the 4th oldest player in the league.

Sure, at 27 he bounced back with 23 in 26. But he's 38 now in a young man's league.
 
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Hasn’t Ovechkin stated multiple times he still wants to play in Russia before it’s all said and done?

I was always of the thought that he would go out for how ever long it takes to get the record. If he only gets to 15-20 and it’s downhill from there, I am starting to wonder if he even wants to be here for another possibly 3 years after this one.

Does he have too much pride to continue going out on the ice to be invisible?

We shall see.
 
I didn’t watch him play a lot but his stats are basically identical as last year minus the shooting%.

He’s a marginal 5v5 player and has been for a few year. But if he had his usual 14% S% he’d be at 11 goals, on pace for 40.
 
IF ~20 is the new past it'll be 3+ years. Would he really wanna stick around at 42 and 43 just to try to get a few PPGs to break the record?
 
38 is still young in life but when your body goes through this for 20 years it takes a toll.

I figured he would decline but this has been a fall..

Most goal scorers historically fall off after 30, few exceptions.
 
Dating back to the final 5 games of last season, he has 5 goals in his last 27 games and has not registered a goal in 23 of those games. Going to be interested to see how this unfolds the deeper we get into the season.
 
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AIexisLafreniereNYR said:
Caps should trade him, they’re pretty shit.. Rangers could use a top line RW. Lets get Ovie a second cup.
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Ovechkin and Crosby are going to see their careers wind down on poor Caps and Pens teams. But I'd rather see them retire and start and end their career with the one team that drafted them, than see them fizzle out on some random team in the hopes of getting one more Cup. Or in Ovy's case, trying to see him patchwork his way to the goal record.
 
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KevinFinnerty said:
I think Ovi hits 25-30 easily still. he's too good for too long to fall off, and he's breaking that record if it's the last thing he'll ever do.
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TeeTee said:
I think he will definitely hit 30 this year. He scores in bunches.
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I see there are still a few people in denial.

Ovechkin started the season with a 4 game scoreless streak. Then he scored and people said he was just getting started.

Instead, he soon went into a 6-game scoreless streak. "No worries", people said. Then he scored 2 in a single game. "Ovie's back!".

Except he is currently in a shiny new, 7-game scoreless streak.

We're only 22 games into the season and he already has three massive scoreless streaks, each worse than the previous one. And it's not just the stats. His skating has been a problem for a few years but now it's just ridiculous. He does everything slow now.

I'm sure he'll have bumps in production every now and then but he's in steep decline and things are only going to get worse.
 
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He has 60 games left this season.

To hit 20 goals he needs 15, which is a 21 goal pace over 82.
To hit 25 goals he needs 20, which is a 27 goal pace over 82.
To hit 30 goals he needs 25, which is 34 goal pace over 82.
To hit 35 goals he needs 30, which is a 41 goal pace over 82.
To hit 40 goals he needs 35, which is a 48 goal pace over 82

I still think 30 is very doable for him.
 
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jigglysquishy said:
He has 60 games left this season.

To hit 20 goals he needs 15, which is a 21 goal pace over 82.
To hit 25 goals he needs 20, which is a 27 goal pace over 82.
To hit 30 goals he needs 25, which is 34 goal pace over 82.
To hit 35 goals he needs 30, which is a 41 goal pace over 82.
To hit 40 goals he needs 35, which is a 48 goal pace over 82

I still think 30 is very doable for him.
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That's not how real life works :)
 
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HurricaneFanatic said:
Ovi has said he wouldn't stick around and play poorly just to chase a record. Whether he meant that, I dunno.
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I don't believe that. I think if he gets within 50 goals of the record, even if he only scores at a 15 goal rate every season, he'll stick around for the 4 or so seasons to achieve it, even if he's just a 10-15 goal guy each year.

Maybe if this decline happened when he was still over 100 goals away. But he's close enough to it that even scoring 15 per year he'd keep coming back to do it since it would only be around 4 or so seasons.
 
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