Then what changed between last year and this year?
Last year, their skaters were mostly fine. If they just had average goaltending, they would have finished 9th in the conference if I remember right. The athletic did a piece on it and they lost something like 18 points due to how bad the goaltending was.
That was Hughes missing 33 games. Dougie missed 20 games. Siegs missed 12 and Bastian started the season with Seattle and only played 60 games with the Devils. Miles Wood missed the entire season for the most part. They started 7 or 8 goalies.
So right now, their good players (Dougie, Jack) are healthy. MIles Wood is a pretty big add back in the bottom 6 after missing all year. Will the health hold? I have no idea. I feel like Jack has been getting hit hard the last couple of weeks and we frequently get the famous Nico grimaces.
Then you take out guy with sub .880 save percentages and replace them with a guy who is .025 better over his career. You take out a very overwhelmed and bad Ty Smith (last year) and replace him with a very solid middle 4 defender in John Marino. You go from Damon Severson running your PP1 and playing 23 minutes a night to playing third pairing 18 minutes a night. Jimmy Vesey comes out and Fabian Zetterlund comes in, who is a little more hell on wheels and a little more greasy and perhaps even a little more offensively productive. Zacha was good for 40-45 points, but if he wasn't scoring, he was just floating out there. They replaced him with a guy that probably won't score as much, but can dominate faceoffs to help with possession and offers a little more jam and off the puck ability along with adding some "winning vet culture" (if you believe in that sort of thing) and better defense 5 on 5 defense than Zacha would give. A guy like Janne Kuokkanen (who couldn't find an NHL job this year) gets bounced from the lineup in lieu of Miles Wood and that's a pretty sizeable jump. And eventually Palat will come back.
Then you account for just natural growth. Nico is 24 years old and putting together the best season of his career. Bratt has continue (and slightly improved) on his performance from last year. When Dougie came back from his injury last year, he was bad. I don't mind saying it. He was. He was clearly gassed, very slow. It was bad looking. This year he came back and looks like the guy who started last year before the broken jaw derailed him.
I know that some of these don't sound like a big deal, but when you consider where the team would stand with just a single improvement (going from .880 goaltending to average goal tending), and then make improvements on top of that, it shouldn't be that huge of a surprise that the Devils are making a big jump this year. No idea if it will sustain or not - Vanacek has never even played 40 games in a year, I'm pretty sure and I'm really reticent to think that Blackwood would provide anything resembling legit NHL goaltending. And while Schmid looks drastically improved so far this year in his cup of coffee compared to last year, he's still a very young goalie with limited experience and I"m not sure consistency is what I would bank on in that situation. But I think the team is legitimately good. They are a playoff caliber team. Outside of that, I don't know. I don't know if they are top 3 in the division good or wild card good, but that's something we will find out throughout the season