Speculation: Where does Ullmark go?

[Daffy]

Hes a vezina winner 4 years younger no big deal.

He's a very good goalie. But behind a good defensive team like Boston, those numbers will be inflated.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

He's a very good goalie. But behind a good defensive team like Boston, those numbers will be inflated.

Maybe last year. The Bruins defence this year wasn’t nearly as good.

 

[I am Bettman]

He's a very good goalie. But behind a good defensive team like Boston, those numbers will be inflated.

Goals saved above expected:
Markstrom-
23-24: 13.7
22-23: -3.1
21-22: 10.8
20-21: -9.3
Total: 12.1

Ullmark-
23-24: 14.8
22-23: 42.4
21-22: 5.7
20-21: -3.6
Total: 59.3

Not inflated at all really. If anything Boston’s numbers are inflated by Ullmark, not the other way around.

 

[treple13]

Linus is much younger and a much better goalie, he will demand a better return

Younger. Yes, by a whole 3.5 years

Better? Maybe, but definitely not by a lot. And if we're going to go just by this season, I think Markstrom was better

The things you've neglected to mention is that Markstrom's contract situation is significantly better. 2 years left is better than 1. Cheaper is better than more expensive

 

[CheerstoBeers]

Younger. Yes, by a whole 3.5 years

Better? Maybe, but definitely not by a lot. And if we're going to go just by this season, I think Markstrom was better

The things you've neglected to mention is that Markstrom's contract situation is significantly better. 2 years left is better than 1. Cheaper is better than more expensive

He's the reigning Vezina winner, Lead the NHL in wins, save percentage, goals against average, and shared the Jennings with Swayman. Check back when Markstrom has accomplished any of these. He's younger and significantly better than Markstrom and holds more value for sure

 

[Cancuks]

I think he gets traded to Washington.

 

[Kegs]

Ullmark stole so many games for Boston. His value is very high. Don’t be surprised to see a very large return.

 

[4ORRBRUIN]

Younger. Yes, by a whole 3.5 years

Better? Maybe, but definitely not by a lot. And if we're going to go just by this season, I think Markstrom was better

The things you've neglected to mention is that Markstrom's contract situation is significantly better. 2 years left is better than 1. Cheaper is better than more expensive

Wow is all I can say

 

[dugg133]

He's a very good goalie. But behind a good defensive team like Boston, those numbers will be inflated.

Maybe in years past, but the Bruins were nearly as good defensively this year as they have been. We were bottom half of the league in like all of shots against, scoring chances against, high danger chances against, and expected goals against.

And then meanwhile we were like 3rd in actual goals against. That's all Swayman and Ullmark, it was those two making our defense look better then it was this year rather then the other way around.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Don't see him within the same division

So expect a trade to a Western Conference team

 

[Canovin]

Maybe to Minnesota for Gustavsson+

 

[CornerStone61]

Don't see him within the same division

So expect a trade to a Western Conference team

I think Ullmark specifically wants to stay in the East

 

[dugg133]

Don't see him within the same division

So expect a trade to a Western Conference team

Most reports seem to say that his NTC is largely made up of teams on the west coast for geographic reasons. No one really knows if that's true, but it would make sense considering he has a young family and going out west would make the travel back home to Sweden considerably longer for him.

 

[dredeye]

Goals saved above expected:
Markstrom-
23-24: 13.7
22-23: -3.1
21-22: 10.8
20-21: -9.3
Total: 12.1

Ullmark-
23-24: 14.8
22-23: 42.4
21-22: 5.7
20-21: -3.6
Total: 59.3

Not inflated at all really. If anything Boston’s numbers are inflated by Ullmark, not the other way around.

It's funny how the goalie is never good. It's only the system that he plays in front of. Ullmark was a good goalie in Buffalo. Last year he had a bump to his numbers being on an historically good team but that team also included him.

I think he gets traded to Washington.

That would be a surprise twist no one saw coming. Just like teh PLD trade. Better goalie for another shot for Ovi?

 

[Micklebot]

Go look at his numbers in Buffalo. A consistent career .915 guy in a league where the average is .900 is better than OK.

League averages were around .910 the years he was in Buffalo while he was a .912, 900 wasn't ok little lone better than OK back then.
You can't really compare historical sv% the way the league has seen avg sv% drop the way they have.

He has certainly been better than ok since arriving in Boston, and his time in Buffalo suggests he is a capable goalie even without an elite defensive team in front of him, but there are still reasonable questions about how good he really is, as he's only once played more than half a seasons worth of games, and he's not put up elite numbers outside of Boston, where both goalies have performed pretty similarly (Swawman is pretty darn good himself).

 

[wintersej]

League averages were around .910 the years he was in Buffalo while he was a .912, 900 wasn't ok little lone better than OK back then.
You can't really compare historical sv% the way the league has seen avg sv% drop the way they have.

He has certainly been better than ok since arriving in Boston, and his time in Buffalo suggests he is a capable goalie even without an elite defensive team in front of him, but there are still reasonable questions about how good he really is, as he's only once played more than half a seasons worth of games, and he's not put up elite numbers outside of Boston, where both goalies have performed pretty similarly (Swawman is pretty darn good himself).

The work load questions are fair, but putting up a .912 on those Buffalo teams was very very very good.

 

[neelynugs]

he was good in buffalo on a terrible team. he got even better in boston working with essensa - they made a few technical
changes to his game and he thrived. last year's numbers were crazy inflated because he played on a historically good hockey
team (in the regular season). by the naked eye, he looked injured in the playoffs (he says otherwise, but seemed like a guy
not looking to make excuses).

this year, boston gave up way too many good looks and ullmark/swayman did what they do. swayman was better in the 1st
half, ullmark was better in the 2nd half. swayman got the net in the playoffs and it turned out to be the right decision.

i'd say linus is easily a top 10 goalie in the league. with an extension attached, he's more valuable than markstrom.
goalie returns are all over the map, and he has a significant NTC, so who knows how it'll play out...but whoever gets him
will be better for it.

as for the question on the thread, i'll say ottawa since there's enough smoke to see it happening.

 

[Micklebot]

The work load questions are fair, but putting up a .912 on those Buffalo teams was very very very good.

So, the premise is team can drastically affect sv%, therefor his numbers in Boston are equally inflated? I'm not a big advocate of fancy stats for goalies, but here's the 5v5 GA numbers;

Season​	Team​	GP​	GA​	xGA​	GSAx​
20152016​	BUF​	20​	49​	42.09​	-6.91​
20162017​	BUF​	1​	3​	3.11​	0.11​
20172018​	BUF​	5​	8​	8.95​	0.949​
20182019​	BUF​	37​	109​	89.73​	-19.27​
20192020​	BUF​	34​	91​	83.97​	-7.03​
20202021​	BUF​	20​	49​	44.96​	-4.04​
20212022​	BOS​	41​	95​	94.08​	-0.920​
20222023​	BOS​	49​	91​	126.68​	35.68​
20232024​	BOS​	41​	103​	117.61​	14.61​

 

[Micklebot]

i'd say linus is easily a top 10 goalie in the league. with an extension attached, he's more valuable than markstrom.
goalie returns are all over the map, and he has a significant NTC, so who knows how it'll play out...but whoever gets him
will be better for it.

as for the question on the thread, i'll say ottawa since there's enough smoke to see it happening.

I think he's certainly top half, and likely top 10,

As for where he ends up, Ottawa seems like the current front runner, but I suspect they might explore other options if the prices remain as high as some are suggesting. They really can't make this happen (taking into account an extension) without getting rid of Korpisalo, which might derail things too.

 

[wintersej]

So, the premise is team can drastically affect sv%, therefor his numbers in Boston are equally inflated? I'm not a big advocate of fancy stats for goalies, but here's the 5v5 GA numbers;

Season​	Team​	GP​	GA​	xGA​	GSAx​
20152016​	BUF​	20​	49​	42.09​	-6.91​
20162017​	BUF​	1​	3​	3.11​	0.11​
20172018​	BUF​	5​	8​	8.95​	0.949​
20182019​	BUF​	37​	109​	89.73​	-19.27​
20192020​	BUF​	34​	91​	83.97​	-7.03​
20202021​	BUF​	20​	49​	44.96​	-4.04​
20212022​	BOS​	41​	95​	94.08​	-0.920​
20222023​	BOS​	49​	91​	126.68​	35.68​
20232024​	BOS​	41​	103​	117.61​	14.61​

Yeah I think we both know that the GSAA stats are pretty flawed given their in ability to account for more than shot location and type and not how much the coverage has broken down. I’m perfectly willing to admit that Ullmark is not the Dominic Hasek level goalie he put up the numbers of last season and that goalies stats are not on an island. I also want to say that the Bruins D post Bergeron was really problematic, not just below average, for most of the year, despite them getting their shit together by the end of the year.

 

[Micklebot]

Yeah I think we both know that the GSAA stats are pretty flawed given their in ability to account for more than shot location and type and not how much the coverage has broken down. I’m perfectly willing to admit that Ullmark is not the Dominic Hasek level goalie he put up the numbers of last season and that goalies stats are not on an island. I also want to say that the Bruins D post Bergeron was really problematic, not just below average, for most of the year, despite them getting their shit together by the end of the year.

I like Ulmark, I think he's an above average starter, no doubt there, and probably top 10 currently. But, I also think he's getting the Brian Elliott/Jake Allen style bump, though perhaps not to the same degree. I think any team acquiring him has to set their expectations accordingly, you're getting a good starter, but are you getting a vezina level guy? idk.

edit: To expand on that, I think extending him adds a real risk to the equation; he's not had that sole starters workload, nor had the killer numbers outside of Boston, so are you comfortable giving him the 8m deal he might ask for by comparing his numbers to Vasilevskly, Hellebuyk and Sorokin? I suspect Saros will soon follow with that type of deal, perhaps Demko too.

 

[Bacon Artemi Bravo]

I'm sure whatever the return is, it will underwhelm. He's a great goalie, but goalies just dont seem to go for as much of a premium as everyone expects them to.

 

[Gonzothe7thDman]

I like Ulmark, I think he's an above average starter, no doubt there, and probably top 10 currently. But, I also think he's getting the Brian Elliott/Jake Allen style bump, though perhaps not to the same degree. I think any team acquiring him has to set their expectations accordingly, you're getting a good starter, but are you getting a vezina level guy? idk.

Goalies for me always seem like a wildcard to spend assets to acquire.

It’s hard to predict how they are going to perform behind a different system, a different roster, a different coaching staff, etc.

I almost think it’s more important to lock in your top 18 before going out to get your goalie (if you have to acquire one externally). If you spend to bring a guy in who doesn’t perform because your defense core sucks, what was the point?

 

[stats1]

He's a very good goalie. But behind a good defensive team like Boston, those numbers will be inflated.

You didn’t watch many Bruins games this past season did you. The reason why their numbers look good is because Ullmark and Swayman were so good. Why do I get the feeling Ullmark’s reputation gets ripped apart because he was with some terrible Buffalo teams?

Ullmark is a great goalie. Only 30 years old and with an extension I’m sure Boston can get quite a bit

 

[Micklebot]

Goalies for me always seem like a wildcard to spend assets to acquire.

It’s hard to predict how they are going to perform behind a different system, a different roster, a different coaching staff, etc.

I almost think it’s more important to lock in your top 18 before going out to get your goalie (if you have to acquire one externally). If you spend to bring a guy in who doesn’t perform because your defense core sucks, what was the point?

I think a reliable goalie is key to maintaining a teams composure, and confidence. It's more important to me that a goalie can consistently give you a chance to win, rather than that he can steal games. My personal take is Ulmark fits the former mold, but maybe not the second to the degree that his numbers might suggest. I just wouldn't want to be the team that pays for the latter, and gets the former without the consistency