Where are McDavid and Draisaitl when it matters?

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

The Oilers supporting cast hasn't changed and the opposition has always put their top line/pair against McDavid.

Nothing has changed. Other than the style of the game and McDrai haven't adapted.

Yeah, that's why they lost last year too because they had nobody else who could score. The Jets know that lines 2-4 won't score so focus all your efforts on those two.

The Oilers have absolutely putrid depth.

I would also argue that the coach hasn't adapted. Because he's never adapted. He's an absolute shitshow of a coach.

 

[c9777666]

They wear 29 and 97, along with 41.

Even as McDavid and Draisatl were tearing it up near the end of the regular season, we still got zippo from every other line.

But if EDM was so reliant on a few players, why did WPG not finish ahead of them?

How do you explain the skid? Was it just a fluke? That depth was seemingly non-existent until recently.

 

[Skate2Stick]

Except for scoring 40 points in 24 games in 93? Or a 36 year old Wayne who had 20 points in 15 games in the dead puck era. You don't win alone, but you certainly won't win if you go from a 1.89ppg to 0...

I wasn’t talking about points

 

[Peen]

I'm not sure why there's a big debate on Penalties/60. Obviously, the best players are going to have a huge discrepancy considering they play way more minutes than bad players.

The point that tweeter was making was that the gap should also show up in rate stats because good players - in theory - would also be getting infracted against at a higher rate than bad players.

I don't understand why that is confusing or debatable? I would expect a positive correlation between player ability and penalties drawn per minute spent on ice? Wouldn't everyone also expect that?

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

But if EDM was so reliant on a few players, why did WPG not finish ahead of them?

How do you explain the skid? Was it just a fluke? That depth was seemingly non-existent until recently.

Because McDavid and Draisatl were just that damn good.

The skid was something every team goes through. We were 3-6 after 9 games, then they woke up (and Mike Smith came back).

Simply put, one team was coached to play in the playoffs and the other was coached to continue as if the regular season never ended.

 

[rocketdan9]

They wear 29 and 97, along with 41.

Even as McDavid and Draisatl were tearing it up near the end of the regular season, we still got zippo from every other line.

I mean... even if those other lines play solid team D

What about the PPs?

 

[aufheben]

Don’t be jelly.

 

[William H Bonney]

Yeah, that's why they lost last year too because they had nobody else who could score. The Jets know that lines 2-4 won't score so focus all your efforts on those two.

The Oilers have absolutely putrid depth.

I would also argue that the coach hasn't adapted. Because he's never adapted. He's an absolute shitshow of a coach.

The depth argument is 100% valid for why the Oilers underperform, absolutely. It's just not relevant to McDavid or Draisatl's individual performances.

 

[c9777666]

Because McDavid and Draisatl were just that damn good.

The skid was something every team goes through. We were 3-6 after 9 games, then they woke up (and Mike Smith came back).

Simply put, one team was coached to play in the playoffs and the other was coached to continue as if the regular season never ended.

So WPG's slump was basically 'Flip a switch come playoff time, it's OK, we'll show a pulse when the games count'

 

[thebigbea]

Next game, 5 pts each lol

 

[aufheben]

This whole discussion about drawing penalties is exactly why people are critical of players who stuff themselves with PP points.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

So WPG's slump was basically 'Flip a switch come playoff time, it's OK, we'll show a pulse when the games count'

Winnipeg took a look at video and devised a strategy that other teams had used against McDavid and Draisatl to neutralize them. They came prepared. The Oilers did not.

The depth argument is 100% valid for why the Oilers underperform, absolutely. It's just not relevant to McDavid or Draisatl's individual performances.

See above. No adjustments were made for the playoffs.

 

[William H Bonney]

I'm not sure why there's a big debate on Penalties/60. Obviously, the best players are going to have a huge discrepancy considering they play way more minutes than bad players.

The point that tweeter was making was that the gap should also show up in rate stats because good players - in theory - would also be getting infracted against at a higher rate than bad players.

I don't understand why that is confusing or debatable? I would expect a positive correlation between player ability and penalties drawn per minute spent on ice? Wouldn't everyone also expect that?

Because your premises are incorrect and that's not what the PD/60 highlights. You don't normalize metrics with sample size issues and there are large variances between penalty situations that aren't handled appropriately with PD/60 assuming all penalties drawn are the same.

For example:

• A scrub player racking up a coincidental roughing minor in 5 minutes/game will have a higher PD/60 than McDavid drawing a 1 hooking call in 25 minutes/game. But McDavid's penalty drawn is actually meaningful. This is why @Korg highlighted penalty differential as a more meaningful metric. Man advantages drawn or nullified is a much more meaningful measure than just penalties drawn.
• A player who appears in 1 game in limited minutes but draws any type of penalty will have a higher PD/60 than McDavid drawing a 1 hooking call per game in 25 minutes/game.

Metrics require nuance, interpretation, and analysis to apply any kind of reasoned judgment before drawing conclusions.

 

[Mickey Marner]

^^^^
Exactly.

The premise that a player who draws a large share of penalties should increase the total number of infractions is flawed. It can be observed both statistically and visually that players like Wilson, Kadri and the Tkachuks cause more penalties to be called, while Lady Byng type players cause fewer to be called, however the latter will have the better differential.

 

[Peen]

Because your premises are incorrect and that's not what the PD/60 highlights. You don't normalize metrics with sample size issues and there are large variances between penalty situations that aren't handled appropriately with PD/60 assuming all penalties drawn are the same.

For example:

• A scrub player racking up a coincidental roughing minor in 5 minutes/game will have a higher PD/60 than McDavid drawing a 1 hooking call in 25 minutes/game. But McDavid's penalty drawn is actually meaningful. This is why @Korg highlighted penalty differential as a more meaningful metric. Man advantages drawn or nullified is a much more meaningful measure than just penalties drawn.
• A player who appears in 1 game in limited minutes but draws any type of penalty will have a higher PD/60 than McDavid drawing a 1 hooking call per game in 25 minutes/game.

Metrics require nuance, interpretation, and analysis to apply any kind of reasoned judgment before drawing conclusions.

You can easily filter games played/minutes played with any available rate stat to adjust for your example.

Like, really easily.

 

[William H Bonney]

You can easily filter games played/minutes played with any available rate stat to adjust for your example.

Like, really easily.

Obviously. But the discussion of PD/60 originated with someone who did not do that. Nor does that solve the penalty drawn situation, either.

 

[Peen]

Obviously. But the discussion of PD/60 originated with someone who did not do that. Nor does that solve the penalty drawn situation, either.

Oh, I see.

I am curious to see what the correlation would be - if there is one - between penalties drawn and player ability.

Would have to use one of the prebuilt models that values/ranks players based on their ES ability/production and then relate that to what their penalty rates are while filtering out the players who've played insignificant games.

 

[NOTENOUGHJTCGOALS]

If only the Oilers had better depth. The Jets would use all their best defensive players to cover the Oilers third line and let McDavid and Draisatl roam free.

 

[Sugi21]

If only the Oilers had better depth. The Jets would use all their best defensive players to cover the Oilers third line and let McDavid and Draisatl roam free.

or maybe coach Tipper can take advantage of having last change and put his big guns out against weaker opponents?

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

or maybe coach Tipper can take advantage of having last change and put his big guns out against weaker opponents?

Now you're just talking crazy. Why would anyone do that?

 

[winnipegger]

Yeah, that's why they lost last year too because they had nobody else who could score. The Jets know that lines 2-4 won't score so focus all your efforts on those two.

The Oilers have absolutely putrid depth.

I would also argue that the coach hasn't adapted. Because he's never adapted. He's an absolute shitshow of a coach.

I don't really understand this argument. Whenever McDrai are on the ice the Jets have 3 forwards and 2 defense out against them. The Oilers had last change the last two games so Winnipeg didn't control the matchups. In what way have the Jets "focused all their efforts" on McDrai? They are doing the same thing against McDrai that they're doing against the entire Oiler roster.

The failure to produce isn't because of some genius plan by Paul Maurice. Maurice is a very average coach (depending on who you ask). McDrai just, for whatever reason, can't score right now. That's on them and no one else.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I don't really understand this argument. Whenever McDrai are on the ice the Jets have 3 forwards and 2 defense out against them. The Oilers had last change the last two games so Winnipeg didn't control the matchups. In what way have the Jets "focused all their efforts" on McDrai? They are doing the same thing against McDrai that they're doing against the entire Oiler roster.

The failure to produce isn't because of some genius plan by Paul Maurice. Maurice is a very average coach (depending on who you ask). McDrai just, for whatever reason, can't score right now. That's on them and no one else.

Tippett doesn't match lines. He doesn't adjust to opponent's strategy. He doesn't have a gameplan that differs depending on the opponent. I can't verify it for sure but one of our posters said that Tippett said himself he wasn't watching anything on the Jets or doing any sort of prep for the series for them. What the f*** kind of coach does that?

McDavid and Draisatl do need to be better, no question. But at the same time, Tippett isn't doing them any favours.

And the bolded is correct which makes this even more infuriating. The blueprint to shut down the Oilers was already laid out by Montreal and Toronto. Of course, even an average coach would have some kind of plan in mind to deal with it. Not ours. All Winnipeg has to do is check McDavid and Draisatl hard. The rest of the roster won't piss a drop. It's a poorly constructed roster coached by a guy who's time was up years ago.

 

[Connor McConnor]

Jets have been outchanced, out high danger chanced both games but Hele is standing on his head and our other 3 lines are terrible. Mcdavid-drai-whoever is outplaying the connor-schiefele-wheeler line everytime they are on the ice but can't get a puck to go in and their other lines are just straight up better than us. Drai was a monster tonight. I don't think this series is over but obviously 2 disappointing results, easily could be 2-0 the other way.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Jets have been outchanced, out high danger chanced both games but Hele is standing on his head and our other 3 lines are terrible. Mcdavid-drai-whoever is outplaying the connor-schiefele-wheeler line everytime they are on the ice but can't get a puck to go in and their other lines are just straight up better than us. Drai was a monster tonight. I don't think this series is over but obviously 2 disappointing results, easily could be 2-0 the other way.

He really isn't. He's been good, exactly what you'd expect out of a starting goalie.

 

[OilersFanatics505]

Next game, 5 pts each lol

Y’all said that before last game