When does the Yzerplan start getting criticized?

[Pavels Dog]

Since 2014, has he?

Generally it's too soon to really evaluate the past 3-4 drafts if we're not talking exclusively 1st rounders, so you're basically looking at 2015 to ~2017?

I'd say Cirelli, Joseph and Colton are solid late picks. Perbix seems great for a 6th rounder.

If you want more recent stuff, Elmer Söderblom in the 6th is awesome. Amadeus Lombardi in the 4th looks like a potential steal. Carter Mazur in the 3rd. William Wallinder in the 2nd.
All the 1st rounders in Detroit look good-to-great too with the possible exception of Cossa.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Generally it's too soon to really evaluate the past 3-4 drafts if we're not talking exclusively 1st rounders, so you're basically looking at 2015 to ~2017?

I'd say Cirelli, Joseph and Colton are solid late picks. Perbix seems great for a 6th rounder.

If you want more recent stuff, Elmer Söderblom in the 6th is awesome. Amadeus Lombardi in the 4th looks like a potential steal. Carter Mazur in the 3rd. William Wallinder in the 2nd.
All the 1st rounders in Detroit look good-to-great too with the possible exception of Cossa.

Yeah he's a good general manager and is good at drafting. My main point is that most of his "genius" in Tampa bay is due to luck. Many teams get the "guy they wanted" with a second or third round pick. Not too many of them end up as superstars. Add those to a core with excellent first overall and second overall players, franchise players in their own right, in an attractive market, and it's a lot easier to build a mini dynasty than in Detroit where your Stamkos is Larkin and your Hedman doesn't exist

No offense directed at Larkin either

 

[newfy]

Since 2014, has he?

I would say yes he has. Too early to judge late picks past like 2017 though.

Cirelli in 2015 is turning into a stud as a third rounder. 2016 Raddysh is turning into a player as a late 2nd rounder and hes a 20 goal scorer now. Colton is solid for a 4th rounder, and now as a 6th rounder from 2017 Perbix is looking like a really solid player too. Like I said, its still a little early for some of these guys. Hes drafted a lot of really good prospects in Detroit that are trending really well and obviously Seider was a homerun even as a bit of a reach where he was picked.

But your time frame is pretty convenient because late round guys from that point onward havent had a tonne of time to catch on in the NHL. It also leaves out a bunch of drafts that have had enough time to pan out where Yzerman basically bent the league over with how well he drafted. So even if youre going since 2014 I would say yes hes outperforming the league in the draft, but why leave out his entire body of work which is still pretty recent?

 

[Shane Diesel]

Yeah except the lottery is actually pure luck. Drafting isnt.

I'd argue any pick past about ten or 15 in the first round is nothing but luck.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I'd argue any pick past about ten or 15 in the first round is nothing but luck.

That’s going too far imo

 

[newfy]

I'd argue any pick past about ten or 15 in the first round is nothing but luck.

Theres luck involved but all luck? Thats dumb and you can see certain teams consistently outperform others in the draft. If it was pure luck that wouldnt be the case

 

[Shane Diesel]

That’s going too far imo

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided to

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Ok. I'll give you until pick 24.

 

[jkrdevil]

So much of a rebuild is pure luck. The Red Wings finished two points ahead of the Devils the year the Devils won the lottery for Jack Hughes. Put Hughes on Detroit and they are looking a lot better.

They haven’t had lottery luck, so really then the only course is to go the longer route and have wait for the players drafter further back develop and accumulate assets (and hope you hit the luck in the process).

 

[Frank Drebin]

I would say yes he has. Too early to judge late picks past like 2017 though.

Cirelli in 2015 is turning into a stud as a third rounder. 2016 Raddysh is turning into a player as a late 2nd rounder and hes a 20 goal scorer now. Colton is solid for a 4th rounder, and now as a 6th rounder from 2017 Perbix is looking like a really solid player too. Like I said, its still a little early for some of these guys. Hes drafted a lot of really good prospects in Detroit that are trending really well and obviously Seider was a homerun even as a bit of a reach where he was picked.

But your time frame is pretty convenient because late round guys from that point onward havent had a tonne of time to catch on in the NHL. It also leaves out a bunch of drafts that have had enough time to pan out where Yzerman basically bent the league over with how well he drafted. So even if youre going since 2014 I would say yes hes outperforming the league in the draft, but why leave out his entire body of work which is still pretty recent?

Those are fine picks but not a cup winning core, which is what he was getting credit for in Tampa

 

[The Red Line]

I imagine next year they'll want Albert Johansson, William Wallinder and Cross Hanas in the NHL. That will probably go a long way to determining the success of the rebuild. Six 2nd round picks from 2019 and 2020 drafts, about to enter the "ok show me" time of their careers beyond just being a good U21 defenseman in Sweden or whatever. If those guys are good, then they might just be a couple players away. If they fizzle out, like the 2nd round picks in the late Holland era, then it could be a lot longer.

Doubtful. Edvinsson, Soderblom, and Kasper are likely to be the kids up next season. Yzerman isn't the type to overload a roster with rookies, he'd rather let them develop at their own pace. I'm excited about guys like Hanas and Wallinder, but other than possible call-up stints I doubt that they'll be the ones making the team over Edvinsson, Soderblom, Kasper.

 

[StreetHawk]

Those are fine picks but not a cup winning core, which is what he was getting credit for in Tampa

Question for Yzerman to decide this off-season is how aggressive he wants to be. The UFA market isn't amazing, so he does have the draft capital with the Isles, Bruins 1st rounders, plus the Canucks and Blues second rounders, in addition to the Wings own picks.

Winnipeg is a team with 4 big names who are UFA in 2024. How they perform this season should decide how they proceed in the off-season, in terms of whether they push their chips in with this group, ala Columbus with Panarin/Bob and let those guys (PLD, Scheiffle, Helly, Wheeler) hit UFA in 2024 or whether they move them for assets and essentially rebuild/retool depending on what they get back. Plus the Jets have Ehlers who is UFA in 2025 and the name, I'd keep my eye on if I'm Detroit is Connor who has 3 years left and UFA in 2026.

Connor is signed at just over $7 mill for the next 3 seasons. If the Jets are looking to retool/rebuild, then the Wings should consider going hard after him or other players in a similar situation where their club needs to retool.

If just before the TDL, you said that Bertuzzi and Hronek for Connor, would the Wings do it? I think most would say yes. So, moving those 2 first and a second may make sense for Detroit. But, it all depends on how patient or aggressive Yzerman believes the Wings should be.

IMO, with the Covid year a lot of kids for that 2020-2021 season lost out on development depending on where they were. So, I think most kids are probably going to take longer to make the NHL.

So, how does Yzerman feels about those post 1st rounders of his from 2019 and 2020? Does he still believe in them to be part of the club in 2023, 2024 or 2025? If yes, then he can afford to be aggressive and move futures to get some impact players.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Yeah he's a good general manager and is good at drafting. My main point is that most of his "genius" in Tampa bay is due to luck. Many teams get the "guy they wanted" with a second or third round pick. Not too many of them end up as superstars.

Yeah of course you're not going to get many superstar outside the 1st round. But your bar seems extremely high for what doesn't count as luck.

Take these examples:

2019 - 6th round
#159 (Detroit) - Elmer Söderblom (6'8)
J20 scoring draft year: 17 points in 44GP

#161 (NYR) - Adam Edström (6'8)
J20 scoring draft year: 16 points in 20GP

2020 - 2nd round
#32 (Detroit) - William Wallinder (6'4)
J20 scoring draft year: 24 points in 37GP

#35 (LAK) - Helge Grans (6'3)
J20 scoring draft year: 27 points in 27GP

These are two cases where players of extremely similar mold (on the surface) were taken close after eachother. Both times, Detroit went with the guys with less impressive numbers. Both times, it looks like Detroit made the better choice.
Luck?

 

[More 2004]

It took a while in Tamp, but he got us there.. just be patient.

 

[nturn06]

Theres luck involved but all luck? Thats dumb and you can see certain teams consistently outperform others in the draft. If it was pure luck that wouldnt be the case

Actually with real random you would expect some teams to consistently outperform others.

Simple example: if there are 7 star players among the late picks, and 30 teams draft completelly at random, there is a 53% probability that 2 star players end on the same team. With 8 stars there is a 64% chance of two ending on the same team, while 23 teams get none. If you start looking over multiple years, the consistent outperforming is actually consistent with the binomial distribution.

Random doesn't mean what people usually think it is.

 

[newfy]

So much of a rebuild is pure luck. The Red Wings finished two points ahead of the Devils the year the Devils won the lottery for Jack Hughes. Put Hughes on Detroit and they are looking a lot better.

They haven’t had lottery luck, so really then the only course is to go the longer route and have wait for the players drafter further back develop and accumulate assets (and hope you hit the luck in the process).

They ended up with Seider i that draft so it doesnt make that big of a difference. The Zadina draft they couldve landed Dahlin, Svechnikov or Tkachuk which wouldve helped a lot though

 

[StreetHawk]

They ended up with Seider i that draft so it doesnt make that big of a difference. The Zadina draft they couldve landed Dahlin, Svechnikov or Tkachuk which wouldve helped a lot though

Or just drafted Quinn Hughes. Don’t always need to win the lottery.

 

[newfy]

Or just drafted Quinn Hughes. Don’t always need to win the lottery.

No but winning one would definitely help a lot, then you dont have to start picking between prospects with deficiencies in their game that are less projectable at the NHL level

 

[kranuck]

They ended up with Seider i that draft so it doesnt make that big of a difference. The Zadina draft they couldve landed Dahlin, Svechnikov or Tkachuk which wouldve helped a lot though

Hughes/Seider would be the best pairing in the league though.

God that would be disgustingly good.

 

[StreetHawk]

Hughes/Seider would be the best pairing in the league though.

God that would be disgustingly good.

Sometimes 1 poor selection when you're drafting that high kills the rebuild. Canucks in 2016 wanted a Dman so were passing on Tkachuck. But, never seemed to explore a trade down scenario. Wanted their shot at their Dmen of choice. Had teams like AZ, Buf, Mon, Col in the 7-10 spots that they could have talked trade down with to add an extra pick since they had moved their own 2nd in 2016 in the Gudbranson deal and didn't trade Hamhuis at the TDL. But didn't. Missed on Juolevi when Sergachev and Chrychrun were both in the OHL as well with him.

Then it cost them their 2021 1st to get OEL.

Hughes and Seider would be a legit top pairing.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Sometimes 1 poor selection when you're drafting that high kills the rebuild.

You can't expect to get the best possible player with every top 10 pick though. "kills the rebuild" is exaggerated. It's all just assets in the end. However, it's fair to say that every bad selection is likely to delay your rebuilding efforts.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Probably now. He's a very good GM, but he was pretty over-hyped.

No but winning one would definitely help a lot, then you dont have to start picking between prospects with deficiencies in their game that are less projectable at the NHL level

There are lots of drafts where every player has deficiencies in their game that are less projectable at the NHL level.

And the whole mystique of the "Yzerplan" was that he didn't need to draft first overall, he would find guys elsewhere.

 

[Pavels Dog]

And the whole mystique of the "Yzerplan" was that he didn't need to draft first overall, he would find guys elsewhere.

The problem is people who aren't fans of the Red Wings and have no idea about any of our prospects create threads on the main board complaining about the Yzerplan because the 18 and 19 year olds he has drafted aren't 100+ point players in the NHL yet.

 

[Captain Mountain]

The problem is people who aren't fans of the Red Wings and have no idea about any of our prospects create threads on the main board complaining about the Yzerplan because the 18 and 19 year olds he has drafted aren't 100+ point players in the NHL yet.

Literally every fan of every rebuilding team in the NHL can say that.

And its not about complaining about Yzerman, its about questioning if he's actually the savant people like to portray him as.

 

[StreetHawk]

You can't expect to get the best possible player with every top 10 pick though. "kills the rebuild" is exaggerated. It's all just assets in the end. However, it's fair to say that every bad selection is likely to delay your rebuilding efforts.

Not always a home run pick. But when they bust hard, it hurts.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Literally every fan of every rebuilding team in the NHL can say that.

And its not about complaining about Yzerman, its about questioning if he's actually the savant people like to portray him as.

Well, that's where not getting those easy lottery picks comes in. Who is questioning where the late round gems are from the Devils last 4 drafts? Who is questioning if Holtz is really going to be a star? A lot is made easier by getting a few #1OAs so your other picks can develop in peace and quiet.