- Feb 10, 2010
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Lemieux is not even top 10 all time in goals despite playing 90% of his career in the high scoring era.
What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?
- Thread starter Big Phil
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Lemieux is not even top 10 all time in goals despite playing 90% of his career in the high scoring era.
The Panther
Registered User
Okay, since two posters have taken great issue with my mentioning injuries (or players leaving to other Leagues) for other top goal-scorers in my earlier post, I will now re-state my point, leaving that detail out. My point was this: If there had been no Lock Outs in Ovechkin's career to date, it is most definitely not a "no question" matter that he would go on to score 894 goals. There would still, in fact, be a considerably large question.
I knew what you meant, but I think he would, but yeah... every career has what if's.
- Feb 10, 2010
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Absolutely true. Nothing is a given and goal scoring can fall off a cliff at any time. And it usually does!
Tender Rip
Wears long pants
He’d be first among peers relative to games played despite chronic back pains and cancer.
Well, except for Mike Bossy, but I think Isles fans saw enough of Mario to know that it’s not a fair fight.
Scandale du Jour
JordanStaal#1Fan
Come on with this nonsense. Mario Lemieux did not even play a thousand game and he has 690 goals (good for 11th ever). No player in the top 10 has less than 250 more games than him played. None of them come close to his GPG (Ovechkin is the closest).
That's 0.75 GPG. Gretzky, a guy who played in the same era is at 0,6 GPG for his career. Your boy is at 0,61 GPG, which is insanely good, but he is no Mario Lemieux.
And, well, Mario also has over 1000 assists. A total Alexander Ovechkin won't even come close to. Mario also has a CAREER 19% shooting percentage. Ovechkin is at 12.7% (lowest in the top 20 all time).
So, you want to compare a volume shooter* to Mario Lemieux. Fine. But disqualifying Mario because he is "not even top 10" is ludicrous. Especially since efficiency metrics favor him.
I guess Mike Bossy is not a top 10 goal scorer either (22nd)... yet he has the best GPG ever at 0,76 GPG. Only played 752 games though. He has an insane CAREER 21.2 shooting percentage. That's nearly TWICE as effective as Ovechkin. Mike Bossy also has 30 less assists than Ovechkin... in 400 less games.
But, hey, I guess two guys who have better efficiency metrics while being complete offensive players and not volume shooters are not in the conversation at all because... games played and volume!
EDIT: Shooting percentage needs some context though. Ovechkin shooting percentage is average compared to the shooting percentage of the other top players of his era (Crosby, Stamkos and Malkin are all higher, but not significantly). Bossy is #1 in his era, but other players are at 19-20%, so he is not an outlier either. Goalies was worse and defensive systems less evolved. It counts for something. All it shows is that Ovechkin is not the most efficient of his era while Bossy was. Gretzky during his "prime" goal scoring time was actually very close to Bossy in efficiency. Mario maintained a career 19% DESPITE player a significant portion of his career in a lower scoring era. He IS an outlier.
*: Being a volume shooter when you have THAT shot is a good thing. It is NOT a criticism of the player, it is CONTEXT!
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kladorf2005
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He played 915 games. You ain't right in the head. Thanks for the laughs though!
- Feb 10, 2010
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Ovechkin has a higher adjusted career goals per game than Lemieux. And Ovie has already played far more games into his 30s than Lemieux did.
If Ovie got to play in Lemieux's era, he likely would have had 700+ goals in his first 900 games.
- Feb 10, 2010
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He played 915 games. You ain't right in the head. Thanks for the laughs though!
Indeed Mario Lemieux was fragile, and a quitter, and he'd sit out games if he had a hang nail, and he'd have great players traded away - to the detriment of his team - if they didn't defer to him utterly to his satisfaction.
These things actually make him a lesser player.
- Feb 10, 2010
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Here's a bunch of data (not updated for this season):
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]
| Greatest Goal Scorers of all time | |||||||||
| *As of 3/26/20 | Ovi* | Brett | Mario | Gretz | Bossy | Espo | Bobby | Howe | Richard |
| Career Total Goals | 706 | 741 | 690 | 894 | 573 | 717 | 610 | 801 | 544 |
| Career Tot. Goals Rank | 8 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 22 | 6 | 18 | 2 | 31 |
| Career Tot. Adjusted (adj.) Goals | 798 | 738 | 616 | 758 | 461 | 671 | 644 | 925 | 653 |
| Career Tot. Adj goals Rank | 3 | 6 | 17 | 4 | 63 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 10 |
| Goal Scoring Titles | 9 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 5 |
| Peak Season goals | 65 | 86 | 85 | 92 | 69 | 76 | 54 | 49 | 50 |
| Peak adjusted Season | 72 | 78 | 71 | 69 | 58 | 65 | 57 | 65 | 54 |
| Peak Adjusted Season Rank (All time) | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 45 | 4 | 54 | 13 | 84 |
| Peak Season relative to next best of the era^^ | 8.30% | -6.5% | -8% | 7% | -25% | 10% | 8% | 4% | 2% |
| Same as above, adjusted^^ | 5.9% | 10.0% | -9.0% | -12% | -26% | 12.0% | 6.6% | 9.0% | -17% |
| Lead over next best, 1st 5 yrs | 17.0% | -15% | 6.8% | 21.0% | 19.0% | -53% | -3.3% | -36% | 24.0% |
| Lead over next best, 1st 10 yrs | 40.0% | 2.8% | 11.0% | 41.0% | 6.0% | -6.0% | 25.0% | -11% | 53.0% |
| Lead over next best, 1st 15 yrs | 53.0% | 10.0% | 4.6% | 30.0% | -23% | 45.0% | 30.0% | 9.0% | 40.0% |
| Lead over 10, first 5 seasons | 59.0% | 17.0% | 53.0% | 80.0% | 56.0% | -6.0% | 22.7% | 15.0% | 77.0% |
| Lead over 10, first 10 seasons | 60.0% | 41.0% | 32.0% | 79.0% | 79.0% | 59.0% | 72.0% | 107% | 108% |
| Lead over 10, first 15 seasons | 86.0% | 44.0% | 35.0% | 70.0% | 31.0% | 85.0% | 105% | 149% | 166% |
| *As of 3/26/20 | Ovi* | Brett | Mario | Gretz | Bossy | Espo | Bobby | Howe | Richard |
| Career GPG | 0.61 | 0.58 | 0.75 | 0.6 | 0.76 | 0.56 | 0.57 | 0.45 | 0.56 |
| Career Adj GPG | 0.692 | 0.582 | 0.673 | 0.510 | 0.613 | 0.523 | 0.606 | 0.523 | 0.668 |
| All time rank Adjusted GPG*** | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| **GPG lead over next best, 1st 5 yrs | 17% | -16% | 11% | 18% | -5% | -50% | -19% | -34% | 22% |
| **GPG lead over next best, 1st 10 yrs | 13% | -19% | 8% | 0% | -12% | -15% | 17% | -13% | 41% |
| **GPG lead over next best, 1st 15 years | 15% | -27% | 21% | 16% | -4% | -13% | 4% | -9% | 16% |
| **GPG lead over 10, first 5 yrs | 45% | 36% | 44% | 60% | 44% | 0% | 19% | 9% | 50% |
| **GPG lead over 10, 1st 10 yrs | 50% | 45% | 49% | 52% | 38% | 41% | 47% | 55% | 68% |
| **GPG lead over 10, 1st 15 yrs | 52% | 28% | 64% | 34% | 41% | 44% | 61% | 60% | 87% |
| **Times Led NHL in GPG | 9 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 5 |
| 50 goal seasons | 8 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| Quanity of NHL 50 goal seasons in their 1st 15 yrs | 22 | 78 | 90 | 110 | 68^ | 30 | 10 | 1 | 1 |
| *As of 3/26/20 | Ovi* | Brett | Mario | Gretz | Bossy | Espo | Bobby | Howe | Richard |
| % of 50 goal seasons / 1st 15 | 36% | 6.40% | 6.70% | 8% | 13% | 16.7% | 50% | 0% | 100% |
| Adjusted 50 goal seasons | 11 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Playoff Goals | 65 | 103 | 76 | 122 | 85 | 61 | 62 | 68 | 82 |
| Playoff GPG | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.71 | 0.59 | 0.66 | 0.47 | 0.52 | 0.43 | 0.62 |
| Playoff Adj. Goals | 68.5 | 98.8 | 68 | 98.71 | 64.75 | 53.8 | 55.8 | 65.2 | 71.4 |
| Playoff Adjusted GPG | 0.535 | 0.489 | 0.636 | 0.475 | 0.502 | 0.414 | 0.469 | 0.415 | 0.541 |
| Playoff Adj. GPG Rank*** | 3 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 2 |
| **Minimum ~ half the games played | |||||||||
| ***Among the players on this list | |||||||||
| ^ 10 seasons only | |||||||||
| ^^ERA definition for each player (this varies depending on when scoring changed significantly) | |||||||||
| ^^Ovechkin: 2005-present | |||||||||
| ^^Bobby Hull: Just included pre-1967 expansion. Expansion would include Esposito's 76 goal season, but I don't think that was humanly possible pre-expansion | |||||||||
| ^^Esposito: I counted '67 to 79-80. Includes expansion but not the 1980s GPG explosion | |||||||||
| ^^Howe: For raw totals, didn't include Richard's '44-45 because NHL scoring differed too much | |||||||||
| ^^Richard: For adjusted and league wide, the sample includes Howe's '52. |
- Feb 10, 2010
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Significant portion = less than 2 seasons worth of games.
North Cole
♧ Lem
- Jan 22, 2017
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Haha, Wut? No. Maybe indicative of general possession, but Washington is 3rd in P%, with more SA/g than S/g and not even top 10 in s/g. Anaheim is 25 in s/g, but 7th in P%.
As an aside, it's kind of cool trivia that the Oilers are the only sub 0.500 P% team since the 05' lockout.
kladorf2005
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- Apr 20, 2018
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Haha. "here's a bunch of data... I have no idea what any of it means, so I'll just spam you with the whole table since it might be good?"
Scandale du Jour
JordanStaal#1Fan
Jesus Christ, I am out...
And I thought your "secondary assistzzzzzzzzz" and "hitzzzzzz" arguments were bad...
Will he catch Gretzky or not, he will be remembered as the best goal scorer this league has ever had. By me at least.
Hope he does tho. Looking quite unlikely, very very difficult but not totally impossible.
Hope he does tho. Looking quite unlikely, very very difficult but not totally impossible.
DrewGl
Registered User
Can we just start a Caps/Pens fans hate each other thread for all such discussions?
Randyne
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Their S% is better than average (WSH 10.1 S%; NHL 9.3 S%). Anyway top 15 teams have 30.62 SGP and bottom 15 have 30.04 SGP
North Cole
♧ Lem
- Jan 22, 2017
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Sure, but if your net-shot differential is negative, then you are being outshot. So how does shooting more = more wins when you have less shots than the team you are playing against on average, per night?
Regardless if he catches Gretz or not Ovi is the best pure goal scorer I've ever seen in my life and one of the top players to ever play in the NHL. Nothing but respect for his career.
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kladorf2005
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Unfortunately we have to claim daver. But Midnight Judges and illpucks are yours!
- Feb 10, 2010
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Haha. "here's a bunch of data... I have no idea what any of it means, so I'll just spam you with the whole table since it might be good?"
Generally speaking, when quoting someone, you should use their actual words. Otherwise, you are engaging in a logical fallacy called a straw man.
I know what the data means. The data is not new for me. But it is new for you, and new to the other guy who wrongly thought Lemieux was a better per-game goal scorer than Ovechkin.
What the data shows - if you actually take the time to look at it - is that out of all the greatest goal scorers, Ovechkin already has the strongest case as the GOAT. Peak, prime, longevity, playoffs - he has no significant weaknesses.
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BallardEra
Leafs&Caps Since 1982™
I think the best part of this topic is that people see a chance that it "can" possibly happen.
We've come a long way since this topic:
https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/will-ovechkin-catch-gretzky-in-career-goals.1756261
We've come a long way since this topic:
https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/will-ovechkin-catch-gretzky-in-career-goals.1756261
Even if he doesn't catch him, AO is the best goal scorer ever.
That said, I ain't ruling out that he doesn't catch him, though. It's still quite doable.
That said, I ain't ruling out that he doesn't catch him, though. It's still quite doable.
ChiefWiggum
Registered User
Imagine the hype around the NHL in the couple of weeks during which Ovechkin comes to within 10 goals of Gretzky if it were to happen.
Could be the NHL's version of Sosa vs McGwire
Could be the NHL's version of Sosa vs McGwire
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