He has had 6 goals in 8 games... drying up and age showing? Look, I don't want him to do it, but I don't think he's drying up yet.
What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?
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Prime Gretzky would hit 60 goals in todays NHL, I would almost guarantee it. Not yearly, mind you, but he would do it once or twice with numerous 50 goal seasons. The man isn't the Great One for nothing. Now, I don't think he would keep doing it as long as Ovi is, but very very few have.
Wow, go study how many players hit 60 goals and how many times in the last 25 seasons. No, heck, go check how many times more than 53 goals were scored in the last 10 seasons. In order for Wayne to score 50 goals in current NHL he needs to be as dominant as a scorer as the best NHL scorers of today's era.
This question will be more appropriate after next season. It's difficult to say because some guys (like Max Kellerman says) do indeed fall off the cliff. Ovi will likely still be a 30-35 goal guy by next season, but I question where he will be at 36-37. I think he will need to shed a few pounds of fat when he starts to become a very slow skater. His weight has worked because he hasn't lost his athleticism, but he's a guy who can definitely be around 215 lbs. and not 235.
Got to love it when someone talks about bringing Gretzky here with time machine and then calls other poster ridiculous for speculating with adjusted stats.
Ovi will not pass Wayne. Short seasons killed his chances IMO. It's going to be the rest of the roster decaying around him and the fact he will probably want 10m per season that will do him in. If the Caps wanted to make him a part owner and he agreed to play for peanuts like Mario did, then they might be able to replenish and keep him going. I think he will get pretty close but will not pass him.
Doug Maclean actually suggested this as the right move in seriousness on Real Kyper ep 89. So I wouldn't even write it off.
CoupeStanley
Registered User
Different era... Pretty sure it would be ruled to be cap circumvention in some way.
With that being said, I still think he does it. He's not close to be done and he's not that far.
On the other hand, Caps might very well just build a one line for just Ovie to chase the record at the twilight. Caps is likely going to full rebuild within 3-4 year window. Whats better way to tank, than sucking while still getting full cheerful crowds who come in to see if Ovie makes it.
perfect buffer to rebuild.
You realize he has to put together the 4 or 5 best goal scoring seasons for a +35 year old player in the history of the league in a row, right? Father time has never lost a match. He won't lose this one either.
Either way this would only be possible if he had another 50 goal season in him. Assume he ends up @735 this year, and 50 goal next year then the next 3 years he can do it averaging 37 goals. Unless he has Jagr longevity he won't do it.
CoupeStanley
Registered User
That's your opinion. Considering that he's in a race to be the best goal scorer in the history of the league, would that be that surprising that he would become the best 35+ goal scorer in the history of the league?
Just to highlight how hard to do this I will summarize with these numbers:
Last time 48 goals were scored - 1 year ago
Last time 51 goals were scored - 2 years ago
53 goals - 6 years ago
60 goals - 9 years ago (once in 13 years)
65 goals - 13 years ago (once in 27 years)
76 goals - 28 years ago
86 goals - 30 years ago
87 goals - 37 years ago
92 goals - 39 years ago
Last time 48 goals were scored - 1 year ago
Last time 51 goals were scored - 2 years ago
53 goals - 6 years ago
60 goals - 9 years ago (once in 13 years)
65 goals - 13 years ago (once in 27 years)
76 goals - 28 years ago
86 goals - 30 years ago
87 goals - 37 years ago
92 goals - 39 years ago
There is no opinion about it. The 5 best goalscoring seasons in league history for a +35 year old player are:
Bucyk:51g 36yo
Alfredsson: 40g 35yo
Selanne: 40g 35yo
Esposito 38g 35yo
Messier 36g 35 yo.
Bucyk had Orr. Enough said.
This is Ovis 35 yo season and it's shortened. He only has 14 goals. He's 174 g short. If you think he's pulling 3 50 goal seasons plus change in a row out his ass at 36, 37, and 38, good luck. If he does it then he is The GOAT.
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Paperbagofglory
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- Nov 15, 2010
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Players are in better shape now then back in the day.
Look at those old powder puffs in Bobby Hull and Gordie Howe, they were probably smoking and drinking during the stoppage in play. An athletic monster like Ovechkin will last another 5 seasons if he treats his body right.
The way i see it, if he is doing a 4 year contract. If he is up to 730 this year, it takes 4x35 to be just 25 goals behind. Doesnt sound that unreal, does it? If he has just one 45 goal season more in him, he needs to put 25 goals at 39.
If he has ~30 goal season under his belt at 39/40, you think he just bails out being so close? Miss out on being greatest of all time. Miss out on being absolute national hero in Russia.
So, all it takes is averaging 35 a season for 4 years. I Believe.
edit. Actually i think if he gets anywhere close to 50 range before his 40s, he is going to grind anything there is to grind, full Jagr/Chelios/Selanne mode. And Caps will let him to. After all, its an unbreakable record. You dont quit on it, unless you just have to (injuries, just being too far to catch). I think anyone who thinks Ovie will retire at 40y being 40-50 goals behind is just hugely under estimating the magnitude of breaking the record.
edit edit. Its really just hitting me. If he plays up to 42, all he needs to do is average 27,5 goals a season. Selanne still scored 26 at that age. Jagr scored 17 at that age. Even Chara managed to score 5 goals at 42. It really takes a career ending injury or horrible regression for Ovie not to get there, in my opinion. 9+35+35+30+26+24+16 and its done. Im definately not betting against Ovie on this one..
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CoupeStanley
Registered User
Unless you have a time machine, you can argue with the arrogance level you want, it's still an opinion or a projection.
We'll see.
Skrudland2Lomakin
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- Jan 1, 2011
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I must be missing the point of this, is this to demonstrate how dominant of a player he is because Ovechkin owns almost all of these markers since he started. Surely this was t an attempt to argue against him...
48 goals were scored - 1 year ago Ovechkin
51 goals were scored - 2 years ago Ovechkin
53 goals - 6 years ago Ovechkin
60 goals - 9 years ago (once in 13 years) Stamkos
65 goals - 13 years ago (once in 27 years) Ovechkin
76 goals - 28 years ago
86 goals - 30 years ago
87 goals - 37 years ago
92 goals - 39 years ago
How are you recalling the exact episode a random remark was made? Amazing memory.
Between the two lockouts, in addition to the two seasons of covid-19 he has lost close to 150-200 games of accumulating in his career. It's a shame. Because if not for those games lost, this discussion wouldn't take place he would break the record no question.
filinski77
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- Feb 12, 2017
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Ovechkin has already been one of, if not the best (especially considering era) 30-34 year old goalscorers in league history. See below for his goal standing relative to other 'x' aged seasons:
| Aged Season | Ovi goal standing |
| 30 | 5th |
| 31 | 38th |
| 32 | 3rd |
| 33 | 2nd |
| 34 | 1st (in 68GP) |
Now, lets say he finishes this season at 730, and replicates goal totals at the 1st best, 3rd best, 5th best, or 10th best all-time for each age category:
| 35 - Ends at | age 36 | age 37 | age 38 | age 39 | age 40 | End | |
| 1st | 730 | 48 | 40 | 37 | 39 | 44 | 938 |
| 3rd | 730 | 40 | 34 | 30 | 28 | 31 | 893 |
| 5th | 730 | 38 | 32 | 27 | 27 | 23 | 877 |
| 10th | 730 | 33 | 29 | 24 | 24 | 16 | 856 |
He realistically only needs to be around ~5th, and then he could hit it at his age 41 year old season. It'll still be a big task, but not as hard as some are making it out to be, especially when his age 32 to 34 year old scoring is one of the best all-time. Even this season he'd have been on pace for top 5 in 35 year old seasons too.
I do not see it as arrogance. It is math and probablility. He gets injured at all in the next 4 seasons his chances fall off a cliff. I know he's never been injured, but he's going to be 36 and plays a physical game. That was the reason behind Wayne's major accomplishmens, the man never missed games. I am not trying to hate on Ovi, I just wonder how many of you arguing he can do this have woken up north of 35 years old after physical activity. It's not the same as 25. There's an Olympic year coming. Ovi has said he wants to play regardless of the NHL going or not. He has a little boy. Do you want to be away all the time when it feels like he's grown so much each time you leave? He could be like Jagr and play until he's 50. Will he want to? I truthfully doubt it. Will he want to go play in the KHL for a few seasons and be a star at home? I put his career at 4 more years. If he's not winning, chasing this record will not matter as much as that. Time will tell. I am no expert but that is my feeling. I think there is too much stacked up against it.
This is the trend of the league. Goals are harder to score for anybody, forget about 36 to 40 years old. I wouldn't be surprised that in a full post covid season top scorers will hovering around 45 goals. Ovi with his age would have to have some impeccable health situation to come close to Gretzky's numbers.
Skrudland2Lomakin
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Do you think the context of 4 different seasons since 2004 not having 82 games might be relevant? I mean obviously scoring is not what it was in the 1980s, but I think those numbers are disingenuous because the games played vary wildly. In fact if you extrapolate the paces of some players in those shortened seasons it actually doesn’t hold to the trend you’re pointing out.
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