What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?

[Mulletman]

However, a third point you need to take into account is wear and tear on the body, which accumulates the more you play. Ovechkin is turning 36 later this year and now we're talking about adding 156 NHL games onto his resume. That's considerable extra mileage, which he would now be feeling even more if he'd played those games. What I'm saying is, it's quite possible that his inevitable decline (which might be evident this season, though it's hard to say yet) may have occurred earlier with extra wear and tear on him. For example, instead of his 48 goals last year, it might have been 30 goals or whatever with the extra mileage on him. (This is to say nothing of the increased risk of serious injury with more games.)

Dude do you even follow Ovechkin?! This was basically the headline on NHL.com before the Capitals were about to play the Devils: NHL Buzz: Ovechkin day to day for Capitals with lower-body injury
So as you can see Ovechkin is actually injured right now but instead of resting and maintaining a better career point per game, Ovechkin actually went out there and played injured and he was able to score this goal:
If this was Crosby or Lidros or Lemieux or Toews they would've sat out the game. But Ovechkin doesn't care about career point per game, he cares about getting actual goals and points to pad his stats so he can beat Gretzky in the long run. 174 goals to go.

 

[Dibbs31]

Ovechkin with another goal in the first period tonight

 

[Kryten]

99%

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

171 to go. This is actually obsurd at this point. 10 goals last 10 games.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

99%

Yeah. Eff it. I've accepted it.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

#722 and #723 tonight. Ovie on fire right now.

 

[vippe]

Cant wait for 800 goal celebration.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

Cant wait for 800 goal celebration.

Next season at this rate lol

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

Last 6 games: 7 goals 2 assists and +9.

 

[BallardEra]

Surprising that he only has 4 goals on the PP this season.

 

[Mulletman]

Surprising that he only has 4 goals on the PP this season.

Yes, the caps need to fix their powerplay as soon as possible. Ovechkin should've passed Brett Hull by now and be closing in on Andreychuk's record! Fire the coach if you need, but fix that powerplay!

 

[Ajaton Azer]

I think that when Alexander Ovechkin is playing NHL games he is going to score NHL goals. So the probability is certainly quite high relatively speaking. I will not be surpriseful when Alex becomes the number one, even though it might never happen.

 

[Thenameless]

I had written him off this year as far as Rocket contention goes. Now, he might actually win. Crazy.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

He won't stay this hot for the rest of the season, but at one time I was thinking 20 goals absolute max, now 30 is achievable.

 

[Kcoyote3]

My favorite current stat for Ovi is that he has 116 game winning goals in 1181 games. Meaning around 10% of the time you play Ovi, he's going to have the game winning goal in that contest.

 

[MadLuke]

I had written him off this year as far as Rocket contention goes. Now, he might actually win. Crazy.

I think the first sentence is the crazy part, what next, written Lebron off the NBA finals ? Tom Brady winning the Super Bowl ?

 

[Hatfield]

My favorite current stat for Ovi is that he has 116 game winning goals in 1181 games. Meaning around 10% of the time you play Ovi, he's going to have the game winning goal in that contest.

I was just looking at all-time leaders in GWG, it’s crazy to see how far down the list Gretzky (20th) and Lemieux (45th) are. Is this just a refection of the high GPG during their careers? Because many of their lesser contemporaries are as good or higher on the list...

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

I was just looking at all-time leaders in GWG, it’s crazy to see how far down the list Gretzky (20th) and Lemieux (45th) are. Is this just a refection of the high GPG during their careers? Because many of their lesser contemporaries are as good or higher on the list...

Gretzkys dominate teams were always many goals ahead

 

[MadLuke]

I was just looking at all-time leaders in GWG, it’s crazy to see how far down the list Gretzky (20th) and Lemieux (45th) are. Is this just a refection of the high GPG during their careers? Because many of their lesser contemporaries are as good or higher on the list...

I think it is because when you look at the playoff GWG Gretzky is right there at number one with Hull:
NHL Playoffs All-Time Game-Winning Goals Leaders

It is an incredibly random and noisy stats, just playing in a no tie league will help it a lot.

 

[Lyons71]

I think he can, but won’t. I think he will slow down and start wanting to spend more time with his family as he ages, rather than continue to play limited minutes later into his career.
That’s my baseless opinion. I say he hits 850.
He’s t greatest goal scorer ever IMO. Been a treat to watch his career so far.

 

[ovikovy817]

Surprising that he only has 4 goals on the PP this season.

Not surprising.
Almost every PP, Ovi has his own bodyguard.
A lot of Caps 5on4 are played like 4on3

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

I think he can, but won’t. I think he will slow down and start wanting to spend more time with his family as he ages, rather than continue to play limited minutes later into his career.
That’s my baseless opinion. I say he hits 850.
He’s t greatest goal scorer ever IMO. Been a treat to watch his career so far.

If he gets to 850, he's not stopping

 

[jalidi]

He's already stated that he's going to play four, "maybe five years" and if he plays that long, scoring over the next 400 games at a 0.5 GPG rate, scoring 200 goals, he's going to break the record.

He won't just stop at 800 or 850, he's going for 900. His teammates are going to feed him, and he'll shoot and shoot and shoot, and he'll get there eventually if his health holds up.

He's has an outside chance of breaking the professional goals record as well. Right now (after putting in two more tonight) he stands at 723 regular season+69 playoffs for a total of 792 scored in the NHL.

He'll play probably another 70 playoff games in the next five years (assuming the Capitals go to Game 7s but never get out of the second round again). He's been scoring at a 0.5 GPG rate, potentially giving him 35 for a total of 1027.

That'll pass Wayne's 1016 goals with NHL playoffs and regular season combined, though not his 1072 with WHA included (pipping Gordie Howe's 1071), but Ovechkin should come very close to that one, too.

When all's said and done, because of his insane durability, I'm giving him a 75% chance of passing Wayne Gretzky's regular season goal mark and also becoming professional hockey's third 1000 goal player.

 

[txpd]

Surprising that he only has 4 goals on the PP this season.

Not at all if you watch opposing PKs. Most teams are playing a triangle and 1 against Ov.

As for the record, I have a hard time imagining a hard drop off in his production. With a gradual decline, I cant see him not breaking the record

 

[Karl Eriksson]

Who can he leapfrog on the list this season?