What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?

[Slapshot Sultan]

Come on with this nonsense. Mario Lemieux did not even play a thousand game and he has 690 goals (good for 11th ever). No player in the top 10 has less than 250 more games than him played. None of them come close to his GPG (Ovechkin is the closest).

That's 0.75 GPG. Gretzky, a guy who played in the same era is at 0,6 GPG for his career. Your boy is at 0,61 GPG, which is insanely good, but he is no Mario Lemieux.

And, well, Mario also has over 1000 assists. A total Alexander Ovechkin won't even come close to. Mario also has a CAREER 19% shooting percentage. Ovechkin is at 12.7% (lowest in the top 20 all time).

So, you want to compare a volume shooter* to Mario Lemieux. Fine. But disqualifying Mario because he is "not even top 10" is ludicrous. Especially since efficiency metrics favor him.

I guess Mike Bossy is not a top 10 goal scorer either (22nd)... yet he has the best GPG ever at 0,76 GPG. Only played 752 games though. He has an insane CAREER 21.2 shooting percentage. That's nearly TWICE as effective as Ovechkin. Mike Bossy also has 30 less assists than Ovechkin... in 400 less games.

But, hey, I guess two guys who have better efficiency metrics while being complete offensive players and not volume shooters are not in the conversation at all because... games played and volume!

EDIT: Shooting percentage needs some context though. Ovechkin shooting percentage is average compared to the shooting percentage of the other top players of his era (Crosby, Stamkos and Malkin are all higher, but not significantly). Bossy is #1 in his era, but other players are at 19-20%, so he is not an outlier either. Goalies was worse and defensive systems less evolved. It counts for something. All it shows is that Ovechkin is not the most efficient of his era while Bossy was. Gretzky during his "prime" goal scoring time was actually very close to Bossy in efficiency. Mario maintained a career 19% DESPITE player a significant portion of his career in a lower scoring era. He IS an outlier.

*: Being a volume shooter when you have THAT shot is a good thing. It is NOT a criticism of the player, it is CONTEXT!

Lemieux and Bossy were definitely one of the best, but there is no reason to rave about their GPG since both played less games than the other ones in the top 20.

You do realize that it's a lot easier to have a higher GPG and PPG when you play less games? And specially if you don't play a lot of games after your 20s? Games in the 30s and 40s will bring those averages down (Bossy basically didn't play at all after his 20s) Look at Gretzky's PPG and GPG after his 20s or with the same amount of games as Bossy or Lemieux. Gretzky's ppg and gpg went down a lot because he played a lot of games after his prime.

And it's just as stupid to rave about McDavid's ppg for the same reason, when people do that

 

[PaulD]

Probably was dinged up a bit and played through it.

People have been writing Ovie off for 10 years now. Sooner or later, people will learn not to bet against him.

He could easily have a 20 goals in 20 games bender.

People have been writing OV off since he was 25 years old?? Yea right.

 

[PaulD]

I was just looking at all-time leaders in GWG, it’s crazy to see how far down the list Gretzky (20th) and Lemieux (45th) are. Is this just a refection of the high GPG during their careers? Because many of their lesser contemporaries are as good or higher on the list...

Did you check to see how many GWG they set up?

 

[txpd]

People have been writing OV off since he was 25 years old?? Yea right.

IIRC he turned 25 the season he scored 32 goals and yea, there were many that said he had peaked and his physical style had taken its toll.

 

[teemussalami]

Who can he leapfrog on the list this season?

Hes 8 within Dionne, so 5th is in his sights. 18 within Hull, outside shot this year with 22/23 games to go.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Lemieux and Bossy were definitely one of the best, but there is no reason to rave about their GPG since both played less games than the other ones in the top 20.

You do realize that it's a lot easier to have a higher GPG and PPG when you play less games? And specially if you don't play a lot of games after your 20s? Games in the 30s and 40s will bring those averages down (Bossy basically didn't play at all after his 20s) Look at Gretzky's PPG and GPG after his 20s or with the same amount of games as Bossy or Lemieux. Gretzky's ppg and gpg went down a lot because he played a lot of games after his prime.

And it's just as stupid to rave about McDavid's ppg for the same reason, when people do that

I agree on principle... if we were talking about 100 games.

Well, let me rephrase that, I agree when it comes to Bossy.

Lemieux, no. He returned at 35 and scored at about 0,7GPG in 2001.

 

[Hatfield]

Did you check to see how many GWG they set up?

Not sure it’s something that’s tracked.

 

[Randyne]

He returned at 35 and scored at about 0,7GPG in 2001.

...playing 43 games with 5x Ross winner who assisted him 69% of his goals;
Ovechkin at 34 also scored at 0.7 GPG playing 68 games but without any help from all time greats and playing almost every game in his career.
edit: at 34

Sure, but if your net-shot differential is negative, then you are being outshot. So how does shooting more = more wins when you have less shots than the team you are playing against on average, per night?

They've been outshot dramatically by ~1200 shots in their 3 bottom seasons, that reflected on overall differential. Their best seasons mostly with positive differential.
NHL Stats

 

[895]

People have been writing OV off since he was 25 years old?? Yea right.

Crosby and Ovechkin at their crossroads

NHL Trade Speculation: 5 Signs Alex Ovechkin Has Run out of Time in Washington

Ovechkin Slows, as Do Capitals (Published 2011)

 

[Scandale du Jour]

...playing 43 games with 5x Ross winner who assisted him 69% of his goals;
Ovechkin at 34 also scored at 0.7 GPG playing 68 games but without any help from all time greats and playing almost every game in his career.
edit: at 34


They've been outshot dramatically by ~1200 shots in their 3 bottom seasons, that reflected on overall differential. Their best seasons mostly with positive differential.
NHL Stats

I guess playing on a PP with guys like Carlson and Backstrom does not help Ovechkin at all... I mean, no way Backstrom is a HOFer, right? Come on...

Both players had help, of course. Both players are absolutely great. True. You want to argue that Ovechkin is a better goal scorer? Fine! I mean, there is a very good argument to be made. However, the reason why I brought all of these things up is because some poster said that Mario Lemieux was not a top 10 goal scorer ever... which is stupid.

And... what has the bolded to do with goal scoring ability? Despite not playing 1000 games, Mario is a consensus top 4 player of all time. Ovechkin is not even close to that status, despite his durability. So durability does not effect Mario's all time status, but it should affect his goal scoring status?

EDIT: Mario scored a 0,81GPG in 2000-01. That's better than Ovechkin's career best (not much though, 0,79). I mean sure, sample size, but still. That's 35-year-old 3-year-removed-from hockey Mario Lemieux... and that was not in the high scoring 80s. Mario's best GPG in a year is 1.15GPG. In 1995-96, in the dead puck era, he scored 0.99GPG over 70 games. So, @Midnight Judges was out to lunch. That was my whole point. But hey, games played baby!

 

[Price is Wright]

I'm going with he does it. More fun that way.

 

[Randyne]

I guess playing on a PP with guys like Carlson and Backstrom does not help Ovechkin at all... I mean, no way Backstrom is a HOFer, right? Come on...

Backtrom nowhere near Jagr and assisted 29% of Ovechkin goals last season

And... what has the bolded to do with goal scoring ability? Despite not playing 1000 games, Mario is a consensus top 4 player of all time. Ovechkin is not even close to that status, despite his durability.

Playing all the games hurting per games stats. He is closer to big 4 than anyone (among active players).

EDIT: Mario scored a 0,81GPG in 2000-01

I was replying to 0.7 GPG and didn't recheck this. Mario is no doubt in big 4. As a goalscorer Ovechkin is better IMO (this 9>3 outweighs).

 

[topshelf15]

I dont see it as something that will happen, but at this point I dont think it matters...He is the greatest power forward that this game has seen..And is in the company of the very best...Think that should be good enough TBH

 

[Beukeboom]

Backtrom nowhere near Jagr and assisted 29% of Ovechkin goals last season

Playing all the games hurting per games stats. He is closer to big 4 than anyone (among active players).

I was replying to 0.7 GPG and didn't recheck this. Mario is no doubt in big 4. As a goalscorer Ovechkin is better IMO (this 9>3 outweighs).

Crazy how much hardware Ovie has. Also really cool "table". I wonder if Bobby Hull regrets he left for the WHA coming off a 50 goal season? I could see him having ten Rockets if he had stayed.

I still think Bobby and Ovie are very comparable. Ovie has the longevity but Bobby was the better all around player.

 

[Confused Turnip]

Unfortunately we have to claim daver. But Midnight Judges and illpucks are yours!

I think you misunderstand the plan. Those are our fearless leaders, and when they jet off into that thread we'll be right behind them.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

People have been writing OV off since he was 25 years old?? Yea right.

Yes, people have. After he had his 32 goal season in 2010-11, followed up by a 38 goal season, there were many who said he'd never score 50 goals again.
After his 33 goal year, people said he was washed up.
After his slow start this year, Ovie was declared washed up.
On and on it goes.

 

[Confused Turnip]

If he gets to 850, he's not stopping

If Ovi tried to retire back to Russia with 850ish goals and any ability to play left the NHL might confiscate his passport lol. All involved would be idiots not to find a way to make a production of him chasing the last 40.

 

[Confused Turnip]

Yes, people have. After he had his 32 goal season in 2010-11, followed up by a 38 goal season, there were many who said he'd never score 50 goals again.
After his 33 goal year, people said he was washed up.
After his slow start this year, Ovie was declared washed up.
On and on it goes.

In 2011 people were calling him an albatross and talking about what the Caps would have to add to get rid of him and rebuild. Not just a couple kooks online either this trash was on Sportsnet.

 

[txpd]

Who can he leapfrog on the list this season?

Marcel Dionne is next and then maybe he can get to Brett Hull at 741

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

Ovie loves his mother country, Russia. I do think he wants to play a season in the KHL at the very end of his career.

However, I believe he wants to get the goal scoring record for his country, as well. That and numerous other records. Top scoring LW, top 10 points all time, most PP goals, etc.

This will motivate him to play 5 more years, IMHO. A love of country.

 

[txpd]

He won't stay this hot for the rest of the season, but at one time I was thinking 20 goals absolute max, now 30 is achievable.

He typically has a 20 goals in 20 games run and then throttles back. Same is going on now. Worth noting that he has had back to back hat tricks in each of the last 3 seasons

 

[Selanne00008]

Throwing my hat in the ring. He will do it.

Always been a huge ovie fan. Eitherway it's going to be a real fun few years. Every milestone will be big; Passing Dionne. Then next year it's Hull, Jagr and 750 all in one season most likely. The year after that it's Howe.

Then comes the longer road to get to the mountain top. It'll be like the last few miles of a marathon. No more runners side by side, just you and your thoughts. Winter is coming. You can not stop the Great8.

I'm on 4 hours sleep, apologies for the poor metaphors.

 

[filinski77]

Crazy how much hardware Ovie has. Also really cool "table". I wonder if Bobby Hull regrets he left for the WHA coming off a 50 goal season? I could see him having ten Rockets if he had stayed.

I still think Bobby and Ovie are very comparable. Ovie has the longevity but Bobby was the better all around player.

He played 3 NHL seasons after his last (retro) rocket win.

It would have been extremely unlikely that he would have lead the league in goals any more times had he stayed in the NHL.

 

[Video Nasty]

Lemieux and Bossy were definitely one of the best, but there is no reason to rave about their GPG since both played less games than the other ones in the top 20.

You do realize that it's a lot easier to have a higher GPG and PPG when you play less games? And specially if you don't play a lot of games after your 20s? Games in the 30s and 40s will bring those averages down (Bossy basically didn't play at all after his 20s) Look at Gretzky's PPG and GPG after his 20s or with the same amount of games as Bossy or Lemieux. Gretzky's ppg and gpg went down a lot because he played a lot of games after his prime.

And it's just as stupid to rave about McDavid's ppg for the same reason, when people do that

I agree with your thinking here and I usually argue much in the same way.

That being said, Lemieux and Bossy are players where countering those who marvel at the high GPG stats matters very little. We can do excessively negative projection calculations and these two would still rank the same.

500 more games for Bossy, a pessimistic 200 goals (0.400 GPG versus his real life .762) would see him with 773 goals in 1252 games for .617 GPG.

500 more games for Lemieux, a pessimistic 200 goals (0.400 GPG versus his real life .754) would see him with 890 goals in 1415 games for .629 GPG.

Quick and lazy calculations with extremely conservative estimates and they rank 2 and 3in GPG, simply swapped positions. Behind Bure who only played 707 games and we would have to do the same thing for, to then return Mario and Bossy to 1 and 2.

It makes it kind of a moot argument. You’re right in theory, but it would still remain much the same even if you added 50-60% more games played.

 

[PaulD]

Yes, people have. After he had his 32 goal season in 2010-11, followed up by a 38 goal season, there were many who said he'd never score 50 goals again.
After his 33 goal year, people said he was washed up.
After his slow start this year, Ovie was declared washed up.
On and on it goes.

OV scored 51 in 014. Ending the small number if OV bashers who wrote him off.
Crosby was written off by concussions at 23 years old. Then came back and was writtemn off again till he won two more Con Smythes and a couple of Stanley Cups too. Then yet again before he puts up another 100pt season.
Stamkos has been written off.
Price has been written off by some Habs fans for last 3 seasons.
Elite players get dumped on (by their detractors) at any sign of not duplicating the same numbers every year.
OV is a horse. Like Chara and Chelios . Will play at a high level through 40.