What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?
- Thread starter Big Phil
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If he gets close, he's not quitting until he gets it. He's a caps legend and he'd be fed PP minutes and empty netters even if he was 40+ if he was less than 50 goals away. The biggest concern are unknown factors like injury or a HUGE decline out of nowhere. He's been very healthy and has shown no real signs of decline. The safe bet is that he gets it. The question is how long will it take.
Then then Alex squashed that when he broke 50 again.
OV took most of his bashing for never getting his stacked team past the second round......till he finally did
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Lafleurs Guy
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Ovi got ripped off a full season due to a strike and is now missing about half of another one due to covid. It more than evens out.
And if we're going to bring in injuries then we might as well bring Lemieux into the conversation...
BallardEra
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I just looked at Selanne's career stats.
From his age 36 season to the end of his age 40 season he scored a combined 145 goals over those 5 seasons.
That's 29 goals a year average.
Ovechkin is at 723. Let's say he gets 13 more goals this season and sits at 736.
If he has a similar run like Selanne then we are at 736+145 for a total of 881 goals after his age 40 season.
Selanne went on to score another 47 goals over his final three seasons, ending his career at age 43.
It pretty much comes down to health for Ovie in order to pass Gretzky.
From his age 36 season to the end of his age 40 season he scored a combined 145 goals over those 5 seasons.
That's 29 goals a year average.
Ovechkin is at 723. Let's say he gets 13 more goals this season and sits at 736.
If he has a similar run like Selanne then we are at 736+145 for a total of 881 goals after his age 40 season.
Selanne went on to score another 47 goals over his final three seasons, ending his career at age 43.
It pretty much comes down to health for Ovie in order to pass Gretzky.
Selanne00008
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Agreed with this. Ppl looking at it like 30 goal pace for 5 years zomgzzzz.
He could very very easily score 44, next year, and then 39 the following year. Would anyone even bet against this? I wouldn't. Look at his current pace.
Now he can decline and still get there without an issue. At that point he would be roughly 75 goals away. Once its realistically in his sights, he's not gonna stop.
No it doesn't, Wayne played 2nd half of his career with a bad back as well as missing half a season with lockout and most of another for surgery.
I'm not taking anything away from Ovi. Staying healthy is part of it. But I disagree that it evens out.
Health and desire. Does he want to play into his 40s? I think he sees the record as nice, but not career defining.
JohnnyBerts
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I mean.. this is a contact sport that really takes a toll on the body. Saying “If he was healthy” isn’t really a good argument. Staying healthy is one of the most important things. If Lindros learned to keep his head up, he could have been an all-time great - but he didn’t.
Selanne for example, enjoyed a great last half of his career because he dedicated himself to fitness similar to Jagr (although no one’s quite like Jagr). Ovi has always been a tank.. I’m not sure about his fitness but he seems very durable. If he stays healthy, I think he will get very close.
Selanne for example, enjoyed a great last half of his career because he dedicated himself to fitness similar to Jagr (although no one’s quite like Jagr). Ovi has always been a tank.. I’m not sure about his fitness but he seems very durable. If he stays healthy, I think he will get very close.
Lafleurs Guy
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Wayne Gretzky never had the kind of injuries that most players do. His first major injury happens at 31. Up until then he plays almost every game every year. And after that crosscheck his numbers were pretty much in line with the decline he was on anyway. The strike year your talking about? He was on pace for less than 20 goals.
Look at Lemieux or Orr. Yzerman had a devastating knee injury at 27 and was never the same. One of Gretzky's great strengths over those players was the fact that he stayed healthy.
As for Ovechkin, he doesn't get to play in the NHL until he's 20. He's missed chunks of seasons while he was still scoring 50+ goals. It more than evens out, esp since Gretzky was already declining by the time he was injured.
And... Gretzky played in the highest scoring era of all time. How many goals does OV score if he's playing back in the 80s?
ALLCAPSALLTHETIME
Great Dane! Love that Eller feller.
I think he does it for love of country. He wants to get it for Russia as much as anything else.
Lafleurs Guy
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It's a shame last year ended early for him because he had a shot at 60.
ALLCAPSALLTHETIME
Great Dane! Love that Eller feller.
Yeah, especially since it was totally out of his control. I think he probably would have got 55.
C'est la vie.
Lmao Gretzky played against gym teachers and good ol Canadian farmers.
Meanwhile Ovechkin is doing this despite the fact that he missed 1.5 seasons because of lockouts and 1 combined season because of Covid.
Don't matter if he doesn't get the record. He's the best ever to do it and we are all lucky to have witnessed it over the last 16 years.
Meanwhile Ovechkin is doing this despite the fact that he missed 1.5 seasons because of lockouts and 1 combined season because of Covid.
Don't matter if he doesn't get the record. He's the best ever to do it and we are all lucky to have witnessed it over the last 16 years.
Ovechkin is missing like 150 goals due to almost what ifs (being a couple days older and drafted in 2003 with no lockouts or Covid). Before even getting to how long it took his organization to get him a proper supporting cast.
No he didn’t. Why do people feel the need to constantly run down and make things up about Gretzky.
Lafleurs Guy
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Trottier, Yzerman, Lemieux, Roy, Hasek, Bourque, Potvin, Robinson, Chelios... c'mon.
It was a higher scoring era and that favours him but he was playing against great players as well.
Gurglesons
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170 to go. It's actually starting to get a bit annoying now lol.
In last 11 games he's missed scoring a goal in one. It's absurd.
In last 11 games he's missed scoring a goal in one. It's absurd.
Lafleurs Guy
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10 goals in his last 10 games.
Isn't it 11 in last 11? Potato patato I know. He'll cool down again at some point but he's making it look easy.
Lafleurs Guy
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No. It's 10 in 10 and he didn't score in the previous two games.
He's got 9 goals in his last 8 though.
FlaPanthers11
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It’s up to 11 in 11 after today dating to March 7th at PHI. Also 10 in 9.
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