What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?

[andrjusha]

No. It's 10 in 10 and he didn't score in the previous two games.

He's got 9 goals in his last 8 though.

OV scored 11 in 11, 10 in 9

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

One game was 2 goals. So yeah 11 in 11, but to make it easy, 10 in 10.

Slow down Ovi. It's ok. Lol

 

[andrjusha]

and ALLCAPSALLTHETIME liked 5 in 7

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

and ALLCAPSALLTHETIME liked 5 in 7

I am a like machine today. A Caps regulation win with an Ovie goal. A whole lot of love going on.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

I am a like machine today. A Caps regulation win with an Ovie goal. A whole lot of love going on.

Haha. Glad for you.

 

[Mehar]

Ovi got ripped off a full season due to a strike and is now missing about half of another one due to covid. It more than evens out.

And if we're going to bring in injuries then we might as well bring Lemieux into the conversation...

Very well said. It is unfortunate Ovechkin missed many games due to things out of his control.

 

[BallardEra]

If he finishes with 12 more goals this season that takes him to 736. Then he needs 32 goals per year for 5 seasons to break the record.

That’ll be from his age 36 season ending at his age 40 season.

His career goals per game is currently at .613

32 goals average would be a goals per game of .390

This of course assumes he is healthy over those 5 seasons. If he stays healthy it’s very hard not seeing him break this record.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Very well said. It is unfortunate Ovechkin missed many games due to things out of his control.

At this point we’re going to end up with a similar conversation about Ovie that we had with Lemieux and Orr. He wasn’t undermined to the extremes of the other two, but it’s still a case where we as fans will know the career totals don’t do him justice.

IMO it’s now fairly obvious that he would have set the goals record without lockouts and COVID and era-related scoring discrepancies. If he falls short, as much as I hate to say this, I won’t see Gretzky as the legitimate #1 any more.

edit: and I mean that effective immediately. Ovechkin has easily missed 100+ goals due to cancelled games, which would put him at 820+ now. Adjust for 1980s vs 2000s scoring rates and he’s already there. Beyond this point, he’s like a guy who makes it a close race after spotting his opponent a lead.

 

[ayrton2388]

50% chance.

He either passes him or not. Basic math.

Come on, anyone biting?

 

[DrewGl]

If he plays 5 more years then he will IMO...pending COVID/Lockouts.

 

[G0AT]

Lowkey I think Ovi really wants to do it to rock the Canadian media.

 

[le_sean]

If he finishes with 12 more goals this season that takes him to 736. Then he needs 32 goals per year for 5 seasons to break the record.

That’ll be from his age 36 season ending at his age 40 season.

His career goals per game is currently at .613

32 goals average would be a goals per game of .390

This of course assumes he is healthy over those 5 seasons. If he stays healthy it’s very hard not seeing him break this record.

Assuming he even ends his career at 40. I think he’ll just keep going until he breaks the record. Why not? Then again, I also think he breaks it before 40.

 

[4thTierSport]

Assuming he even ends his career at 40. I think he’ll just keep going until he breaks the record. Why not? Then again, I also think he breaks it before 40.

Yeah, it’s not that much of a stretch for him to have a couple more 40+ goal seasons

 

[Hatfield]

edit: and I mean that effective immediately. Ovechkin has easily missed 100+ goals due to cancelled games, which would put him at 820+ now. Adjust for 1980s vs 2000s scoring rates and he’s already there. Beyond this point, he’s like a guy who makes it a close race after spotting his opponent a lead.

It was my understanding that he wouldn’t have come over in 04-05 anyway, so he’s missed:

-34 games for the last lockout
-13 games last year
-26 games this year (30 if you want to count the “suspension” due to the virus protocol violation).

Edit: Sorry, didn’t realize the CCP sponsored this site. Can’t blame them for the plague they unleashed on the world, I guess.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

At this point we’re going to end up with a similar conversation about Ovie that we had with Lemieux and Orr. He wasn’t undermined to the extremes of the other two, but it’s still a case where we as fans will know the career totals don’t do him justice.

IMO it’s now fairly obvious that he would have set the goals record without lockouts and COVID and era-related scoring discrepancies. If he falls short, as much as I hate to say this, I won’t see Gretzky as the legitimate #1 any more.

edit: and I mean that effective immediately. Ovechkin has easily missed 100+ goals due to cancelled games, which would put him at 820+ now. Adjust for 1980s vs 2000s scoring rates and he’s already there. Beyond this point, he’s like a guy who makes it a close race after spotting his opponent a lead.

He wasn't going to play in 2004-5, anyway.

2012-13 he probably missed out on 22 goals. Last year he probably missed out on 7 goals. This year he'll probably miss out on 15 goals.

So, IMHO, that's 44 goals. Probably lost another 6 or do to joke suspensions. (ie hit on Chicago's Brian Campbell)

So 50 lost goals, IMHO.

Plus the goal that was disallowed when he hammered down Hal Gill in Montreal and the puck went in the net. He got robbed of one there.

So, he could be at 775, all things considered.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

At this point we’re going to end up with a similar conversation about Ovie that we had with Lemieux and Orr. He wasn’t undermined to the extremes of the other two, but it’s still a case where we as fans will know the career totals don’t do him justice.

IMO it’s now fairly obvious that he would have set the goals record without lockouts and COVID and era-related scoring discrepancies. If he falls short, as much as I hate to say this, I won’t see Gretzky as the legitimate #1 any more.

edit: and I mean that effective immediately. Ovechkin has easily missed 100+ goals due to cancelled games, which would put him at 820+ now. Adjust for 1980s vs 2000s scoring rates and he’s already there. Beyond this point, he’s like a guy who makes it a close race after spotting his opponent a lead.

Not sure there is anyone that thinks Ovi isn't a better goal scorer than Gretzky. All around player? No, not close.

 

[olli]

if he keeps pace this year he will get 31 goals in 52 games. That puts him at 737. Next year even at age 36 I have a hard time seeing him not getting at least 40 as long as there is a full season. That puts him at 777. Then he would need score 118 goals from age 37 onward. I think he could still score 35 in the age 37 season, putting him at 812. Then he would need 83 goals, which he could easily get if he plays till 40, only needs to average 27-28 a year. Thats barring little to no injuries and no lockouts or pandemics but the 40 and 35 goals the next 2 years are conservative imo unless the caps decline substantially. Or of course if he does but his ability to score goals doesn't really rely that much on conditioning, skating or anything else that players commonly get much worse at in their mid 30s.

 

[andrjusha]

its really impossible to predict since OV is such a unique player,
over last 4 years he is 0.636 GPG, which is 52G over 82 games
this year it is 0.6 GPS, 49G pace
this is unprecedented and there are no comparables, so it is impossible to foresee how his decline (which will happen) will look like.
lots depends on his motivation too, hopefully he gets a new contract soon and we will have some indication from that side

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

if he keeps pace this year he will get 31 goals in 52 games. That puts him at 737. Next year even at age 36 I have a hard time seeing him not getting at least 40 as long as there is a full season. That puts him at 777. Then he would need score 118 goals from age 37 onward. I think he could still score 35 in the age 37 season, putting him at 812. Then he would need 83 goals, which he could easily get if he plays till 40, only needs to average 27-28 a year. Thats barring little to no injuries and no lockouts or pandemics but the 40 and 35 goals the next 2 years are conservative imo unless the caps decline substantially. Or of course if he does but his ability to score goals doesn't really rely that much on conditioning, skating or anything else that players commonly get much worse at in their mid 30s.

It's also how much his teammates decline. Being on a good team with multiple weapons helps.

 

[The Panther]

It's amazing to me how the Capitals keep doing it (in the regular season, anyway). They old.

Only 4 of their 11 top-scorers are in their twenties. Three of their top-5 are in their mid-thirties. Speaking of Gretzky, one of the Caps' ancient defencemen played against him for two seasons in the NHL.

It's almost like Ovechkin, by osmosis, transfers his ageless-ness to teammates.

 

[Pi]

If he doesn't get injured and plays for another 5-6 years, I don't see how he doesn't get 900+ goals.

He could lose his legs and skate in mud and just be a PP specialist and still be a valuable player.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

its really impossible to predict since OV is such a unique player,
over last 4 years he is 0.636 GPG, which is 52G over 82 games
this year it is 0.6 GPS, 49G pace
this is unprecedented and there are no comparables, so it is impossible to foresee how his decline (which will happen) will look like.
lots depends on his motivation too, hopefully he gets a new contract soon and we will have some indication from that side

He said that he will only play for Washington as a matter of principle. I think they are waiting for the deal to happen after the expansion draft for Seattle.

I see his motivation to break the record for his native country Russia. I think nearly the whole country would be behind him in that effort.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

It's also how much his teammates decline. Being on a good team with multiple weapons helps.

Well, they have got excellent Center prospects in Connor McMichael and Hendrix Lapierre. They should be ready in a few years.

Kuznetsov should play at a high level for at least 5 more years and Backstrom seems to be aging well. His game has never replied on speed and probably could play until he is 40, IMHO.

So, Ovie should always have a skilled player to get him the puck.

They have some good defensive prospects and two good young goaltenders so they should be competitive for the foreseeable future.

 

[tarheelhockey]

It was my understanding that he wouldn’t have come over in 04-05 anyway, so he’s missed:

-34 games for the last lockout
-13 games last year
-26 games this year (30 if you want to count the “suspension” due to the virus protocol violation.

He wasn't going to play in 2004-5, anyway.

2012-13 he probably missed out on 22 goals. Last year he probably missed out on 7 goals. This year he'll probably miss out on 15 goals.

So, IMHO, that's 44 goals. Probably lost another 6 or do to joke suspensions. (ie hit on Chicago's Brian Campbell)

So 50 lost goals, IMHO.

Plus the goal that was disallowed when he hammered down Hal Gill in Montreal and the puck went in the net. He got robbed of one there.

So, he could be at 775, all things considered.

And if you standardize that for era-related scoring rates, he’s already way past Gretzky. By like 75. Before you add the extra season’s worth of missed games.

He’s effectively there already. It’s just a matter of whether he can hit the actual raw number, which is like saying he’s still chasing Marcel Dionne.

 

[txpd]

It's also how much his teammates decline. Being on a good team with multiple weapons helps.

Which teammates? Kuznetsov isnt close to aging out. Backstrom has gotten better this season, so its hard to see him being worse than a 2c with great passing skills over the term of his contract. Most seem to think the McMichael kid is a legit top 2 NHL center on the way. Oshie is the one most likely to start to fall away but Wilson has elevated to nearly a point per game as a replacement.

The way the Caps are structured with young players coming like the goalies they have this season its reasonable to see the Caps continuing to win. Lets be honest, their window closed in 2017 when they lost all those players to the salary cap and other players went over 30. Instead they are working on a 6th straight division win.