What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?

[olli]

It's also how much his teammates decline. Being on a good team with multiple weapons helps.

Yeah that’s what I meant by the caps declining

 

[zizbuka]

All the talk about breaking Gretzky's goal record, then you look at his stats and see he has more assists than anyone else does points. It really is phenomenal what Gretzky did. I don't think Ovechkin will ever have that aura over time. None of us saw Babe Ruth play live, but everyone knows the name. Everyone knows the name Gretzky too.

 

[filinski77]

All the talk about breaking Gretzky's goal record, then you look at his stats and see he has more assists than anyone else does points. It really is phenomenal what Gretzky did. I don't think Ovechkin will ever have that aura over time. None of us saw Babe Ruth play live, but everyone knows the name. Everyone knows the name Gretzky too.

No-one is trying to compare Ovi and Gretzky as overall players though? Wayne is in a whole different tier as an overall player.

As far as goal-scoring though, Ovi already destroys Gretzky in (retro) rockets and goal finishes, if he can put up the same raw totals despite Gretzky playing in a ~30% higher scoring environment, there will be no way to say Ovi isn't the greatest goalscorer all time.

 

[gamer1035]

The only way it doesn't get broken is due to injury.

Ovi only has 1 thing left in his career to play for, the goals record. He's gotten everything else he can.

Dude will train hard in the offseasons and keep in physical enough condition until he breaks the record. He's close enough.

He will train harder than all the other old guys currently in the league, why? Cause he has something to play for.

 

[glovesave_35]

I feel like this is going to be one of those things where he will get close, but ultimately fall short. A couple years ago I was convinced he would do it, but then the pandemic hit and game missed. If he doesn't do it, he will get damn close. And then we will look back at all the weird time missed due to lockouts and pandemic stuff and realize he almost definitely would have.

I hope he can do it, because it would be a hell of an accomplishment.

 

[LaTenderness]

Go and get it Alex you god damn horse

 

[tarheelhockey]

All the talk about breaking Gretzky's goal record, then you look at his stats and see he has more assists than anyone else does points. It really is phenomenal what Gretzky did. I don't think Ovechkin will ever have that aura over time. None of us saw Babe Ruth play live, but everyone knows the name. Everyone knows the name Gretzky too.

Gretzky is pretty clearly the greatest playmaker, biggest superstar, and maybe the best overall hockey player in history. That's pretty close to being beyond dispute, though some would say Howe and Orr have claim to being best-overall.

What is in dispute is Gretzky's claim to being the top goal scorer -- and that isn't really a new argument. Even during his prime, a lot of people felt Mike Bossy or Mario Lemieux was the better pure scorer. Across the course of a full career, both Howe and Jagr accumulated larger totals if we give them some margin for factors beyond their control (schedule length, leaguewide scoring rates).

Gretzky simply has the raw figure that nobody has beaten, 892. It's a bit like Joe Malone holding the single-game goal scoring record for over 100 years. It would take a freak event for anyone to ever score 7 goals in a game again, but it wasn't a freak event when it happened... Malone scored 7 only three weeks after Newsy Lalonde scored 6, and then Malone came back and scored 6 again only six weeks later, which was only three days after Cy Denneny scored 6. The raw record of 7 is somewhat meaningless as a result. 892 has a similar quality, being heavily reliant on playing during an era of 8-6 scoreboards.

There's no way Ovechkin will ever be the same level of star or overall player as Gretzky. But as rational-thinking people, we can look at the circumstances of his 724 against Gretzky's 892 -- what those numbers actually signify -- and make a reasonable conclusion that the 724 is actually the more impressive historical feat. And we can hope that Ovechkin hangs around to set the raw record, Marleau'ing it if necessary, so we don't have to have this conversation for generations to come.

 

[Dr Black]

In the last 6 seasons, Ovi has averaged 44 goals a season. If he keeps this pace, he will break Gretzky's record and break the 900 goal mark in 4 seasons. Given his age, his goal-scoring pace will likely slow down, so 5 to 6 seasons is more realistic. Given his consistency and nack for staying healthy, this is certainly within the realm of possibility. Although these 2 COVID shortened seasons have not helped Ovi's cause.

 

[COHawk]

Although these 2 COVID shortened seasons have not helped Ovi's cause.

It's wild to think about all the potential hockey Ovi has missed:

2004/05 - 82 games
2012/13 - 34 games
2019/20 - 14 games
2020/21 - 26 games

That's a total of 156 games. With his career GPG average, that could be another 95 goals, which means it would have been possible for him to finish this season around the 830 mark. Pretty crazy.

 

[Quinning]

If he continues to score at a 40+ goal pace for the next few years, I feel like they will continue to give him 1 year contracts and put him out on 4th line minutes + 1st PP time until he gets it.

Realistically, he could play well into his 40s if they shelter his minutes. But he needs to get within about 40-50 goals of breaking it by then.

 

[zizbuka]

No-one is trying to compare Ovi and Gretzky as overall players though? Wayne is in a whole different tier as an overall player.

As far as goal-scoring though, Ovi already destroys Gretzky in (retro) rockets and goal finishes, if he can put up the same raw totals despite Gretzky playing in a ~30% higher scoring environment, there will be no way to say Ovi isn't the greatest goalscorer all time.

I wasn't really comparing the stats, as much as name recognition. No matter what Ovechkin does, that name will never resonate like the name Gretzky. People who don't watch hockey still know the name. It's just generation transcending, just showing how legendary he is.

 

[HTFN]

I wasn't really comparing the stats, as much as name recognition. No matter what Ovechkin does, that name will never resonate like the name Gretzky. People who don't watch hockey still know the name. It's just generation transcending, just showing how legendary he is.

I have to explain who Wayne Gretzky is to people regularly. I want to agree with you because I optimistically throw it out there a lot but I'm learning to accept that it's 2021 and people aren't going out of their way to learn about hockey history. It was that big when it was happening, sure, but right now you're honestly about as likely to get people to know either just since one is at least actively on television.

If ESPN treats Ovechkin chasing Gretzky like the Bonds HR chase and give it the same SportsCenter time and history lessons, that could do a lot, but it won't be until it gets closer.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

I have to explain who Wayne Gretzky is to people regularly. I want to agree with you because I optimistically throw it out there a lot but I'm learning to accept that it's 2021 and people aren't going out of their way to learn about hockey history. It was that big when it was happening, sure, but right now you're honestly about as likely to get people to know either just since one is at least actively on television.

If ESPN treats Ovechkin chasing Gretzky like the Bonds HR chase and give it the same SportsCenter time and history lessons, that could do a lot, but it won't be until it gets closer.

Well, still far to soon to start the headlines now, but if he gets close I hope they do too. Hockey deserves the publicity. I can guarantee you when LeBron gets close to Jabar it will be all over the page.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Well, still far to soon to start the headlines now, but if he gets close I hope they do too. Hockey deserves the publicity. I can guarantee you when LeBron gets close to Jabar it will be all over the page.

Well yea... the NBA is a lot more popular than the NHL. They probably will do something once he breaks, but I doubt they would follow it game by game/goal by goal.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

I remember when Gretzky broke it, it was pretty big news. But no internet back then.

 

[Yog S'loth]

"Remote."

 

[bobc222]

I wasn't really comparing the stats, as much as name recognition. No matter what Ovechkin does, that name will never resonate like the name Gretzky. People who don't watch hockey still know the name. It's just generation transcending, just showing how legendary he is.

Cool? This thread isn't about how big of a household name Gretzky is, the OP is asking if Ovechkin can catch Gretzky in terms of goal scoring.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

Cool? This thread isn't about how big of a household name Gretzky is, the OP is asking if Ovechkin can catch Gretzky in terms of goal scoring.

It's all the same topic haha

 

[BallardEra]

I get the feeling that there will be a lot of butt hurt people if Ovie breaks Gretzky's record.

I don't get it. Records are made to be broken.

Hopefully if Ovechkin does break it I live long enough to see someone else break it again.

 

[Minar]

I think ovi will break it. This covid season and a few lockouts make it harder for him. But let's not forget that Gretzky played a year in the wha and they aren't counting those goals. So its about even.

 

[txpd]

Yeah that’s what I meant by the caps declining

What evidence do you have of the Caps declining?

 

[Midnight Judges]

What evidence do you have of the Caps declining?

Their, uh, .735 points percentage?

 

[sdf]

Lol he can do on ice only his shot and one timer, i dont give a shit

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

I get the feeling that there will be a lot of butt hurt people if Ovie breaks Gretzky's record.

I don't get it. Records are made to be broken.

Hopefully if Ovechkin does break it I live long enough to see someone else break it again.

I don't want him too, but I'll clap if he does.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

All the talk about breaking Gretzky's goal record, then you look at his stats and see he has more assists than anyone else does points. It really is phenomenal what Gretzky did. I don't think Ovechkin will ever have that aura over time. None of us saw Babe Ruth play live, but everyone knows the name. Everyone knows the name Gretzky too.

Well, of course. Gretzky will remain the best player in NHL history and I doubt that will ever change.

Ovie breaking the goals record won't change that, either.