What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?

[NyQuil]

From Canada? Two, maybe three?

https://www.veterans.gc.ca/eng/remembrance/those-who-served/hockey-canadian-military/history

 

[Confused Turnip]

From Canada? Two, maybe three?

This is incredibly disrespectful, and 100% wrong. The WW2 talent drain on the NHL is well documented, as is Canada's participation in the war.

 

[Fantomas]

This is incredibly disrespectful, and 100% wrong. The WW2 talent drain on the NHL is well documented, as is Canada's participation in the war.

We can delve into historical context ad nauseam and claim that Gretzky's achievements should be downgraded because the bulk of his career came before the fall of the Soviet Union. But that's a waste of time.

 

[Fataldogg]

If Ovechkin didn't have to deal with multiple lockouts, multiple shortened seasons because of a pandemic, it would be a forgone conclusion that he was going to pass Gretzky in my opinion.

As of right now, depending on how he ages, I'd say the odds are against him. I'd say he has a 1 in 4 chance of doing it.

Won't matter though, still view him as the best goal scorer ever.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

From Canada? Two, maybe three?

Lmao good point

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

2 games in a row without a goal, wth??!! haha

 

[Sentinel]

Howe scored over 800 goals
- in a low scoring context
- in shorter seasons
- despite playing in the WHA for years

It took him a lot longer to score them.

Plus, Gretzky beat Howe in total "NHL plus WHA" goals, despite easier scoring in WHA.

So it evens out.

 

[Fataldogg]

It took him a lot longer to score them.

Plus, Gretzky beat Howe in total "NHL plus WHA" goals, despite easier scoring in WHA.

So it evens out.

I don't even think comparing players from different eras is practical. They had completely different access to equipment, different training regimens, dietary guidelines, etc.

Today we have a much, much deeper pool of talent. 3rd and 4th liners of the NHL today would have been very effective players in previous generations. Ovechkin has access to better training, coaching, diet, equipment. Etc but he also has to deal with exponentially more talent than Howe's generation.

Even comparing Howe and Gretzky isn't practical. Totally different eras.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Which shows on an even curve he would be well behind Ovechkin given an equal playing field. Drop Ovechkin in the early 80's and he's easily hitting those totals if not more and he's proven he can put out even higher goal totals late in his career in a lower scoring era. I'm sorry, it's absolutely nonsense to propose that if Gretzky were in the league over the last 10 years he would have multiple 60 goals seasons. Ridiculous.

No what’s ridiculous is thinking you could teleport Ovi back into the 80’s putting out more goals. Super Mario was the best pure goal scorer the game has ever seen. If not for injuries he’d be over 1000 goals, he didn’t put up 100 goal seasons like you seem to think Ovi would.
You don’t know what you’re talking about.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Wow, go study how many players hit 60 goals and how many times in the last 25 seasons. No, heck, go check how many times more than 53 goals were scored in the last 10 seasons. In order for Wayne to score 50 goals in current NHL he needs to be as dominant as a scorer as the best NHL scorers of today's era.

And why wouldn’t he be? He is after all, the goal scoring leader of all-time haha.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Jesus Christ, I am out...

And I thought your "secondary assistzzzzzzzzz" and "hitzzzzzz" arguments were bad...

They are.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I don't like to shit on an era from the past and compare it to another era, but you have to consider the fact that most of the good athletes and the "farm" that teams would normally have wasn't there due to the world war.

This is incredibly disrespectful, and 100% wrong. The WW2 talent drain on the NHL is well documented, as is Canada's participation in the war.

We can delve into historical context ad nauseam and claim that Gretzky's achievements should be downgraded because the bulk of his career came before the fall of the Soviet Union. But that's a waste of time.

This is an interesting sidebar in hockey's GOAT conversation.

In most eras, there was something going on that you could blame as interference with the GOAT race:

1910s and 1920s - Pre-modern rules, heavy impacts from WWI, and a relatively shallow pool of talent due to low salaries and high rates of amateurism
1930s - Effects of the Depression are hard to parse out. Generally, this was a more stable and competitive era.
1940s - WWII made the NHL almost a minor league in '44 and '45, and certainly weakened from '42-'47 or so.
1950s and 1960s - Another strong stable era, but the league was wildly imbalanced with no draft or FA. Half the league were punching bags for the other half.
1970s - Expansion and WHA threw things wildly off-course, resulting in perhaps the weakest era outside of WWII.
1980s - The NHL excluded Soviet players who were manifestly a very large portion of the talent pool. Another era of dramatic imbalance between haves and have-nots.
1990s - Expansion and global consolidation happened simultaneously, but then we had the lockout and rise of Dead Puck.
2000s - More Dead Puck, more expansion, another lockout, and then a statistical disruption under new rules.
2010s - Relatively stable era with only the half-season lockout as a major disruption.
2020s - The era of COVID, and potential for another lockout looming on the horizon.

When you look at where the usual GOAT candidates are sprinkled across history (Morenz 1920s-30s, Richard 1940s-50s, Howe 1940s-70s, Orr 1960s-70s, Gretzky 1980s-90s, Crosby 2000s-20s, McDavid 2010s-20s) it seems that nobody really has a clear-cut claim to the high ground. There's almost always something going on which undermines the surface-level arguments. WWI and WWII had profound effects, as did the WHA/expansion era, as did the Iron Curtain. Even the lockouts can be kind of a double-edged sword... they represent missed games, but they also seem to help extend and rejuvenate careers.

 

[Confused Turnip]

This is an interesting sidebar in hockey's GOAT conversation.

In most eras, there was something going on that you could blame as interference with the GOAT race:

1910s and 1920s - Pre-modern rules, heavy impacts from WWI, and a relatively shallow pool of talent due to low salaries and high rates of amateurism
1930s - Effects of the Depression are hard to parse out. Generally, this was a more stable and competitive era.
1940s - WWII made the NHL almost a minor league in '44 and '45, and certainly weakened from '42-'47 or so.
1950s and 1960s - Another strong stable era, but the league was wildly imbalanced with no draft or FA. Half the league were punching bags for the other half.
1970s - Expansion and WHA threw things wildly off-course, resulting in perhaps the weakest era outside of WWII.
1980s - The NHL excluded Soviet players who were manifestly a very large portion of the talent pool. Another era of dramatic imbalance between haves and have-nots.
1990s - Expansion and global consolidation happened simultaneously, but then we had the lockout and rise of Dead Puck.
2000s - More Dead Puck, more expansion, another lockout, and then a statistical disruption under new rules.
2010s - Relatively stable era with only the half-season lockout as a major disruption.
2020s - The era of COVID, and potential for another lockout looming on the horizon.

When you look at where the usual GOAT candidates are sprinkled across history (Morenz 1920s-30s, Richard 1940s-50s, Howe 1940s-70s, Orr 1960s-70s, Gretzky 1980s-90s, Crosby 2000s-20s, McDavid 2010s-20s) it seems that nobody really has a clear-cut claim to the high ground. There's almost always something going on which undermines the surface-level arguments. WWI and WWII had profound effects, as did the WHA/expansion era, as did the Iron Curtain. Even the lockouts can be kind of a double-edged sword... they represent missed games, but they also seem to help extend and rejuvenate careers.

I'm not trying to discredit anyone or even talking about hockey GOATs at this point. The post I responded two said two things: 1) WW2 didn't impact the '46 season and 2) Canadians didn't really fight in WW2. Both of these things are seriously wrong. If you want to talk impact on a larger scale whatever, but that wasn't the conversation I took issue with.

EDIT: For what it's worth in the bigger picture, I hold Howe over Gretzky in terms of goal production any day, shorter seasons and clearly lower league scoring combined with adjusted peak and longevity. But that doesn't change the above detail.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

And why wouldn’t he be? He is after all, the goal scoring leader of all-time haha.

Ovechkin is the best goal scorer of all time and would absolutely obliterate the 80`s. I have proven I know what I`m talking about everywhere in this thread.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

Maybe not 70-80, but PRIME Wayne Gretzky was the greatest goal scorer ever so him getting a few goals in the 60s i wouldn't doubt. Yes, he was that good. The problem for Wayne is his goal scoring prime was extremely short compared to guys like Ovi who's goal scoring prowless lasted much longer.

Gretzky most definitely would not sniff 70 in today`s era and I`ve already given you the reasons as to why. Ovechkin is the superior goal scorer anyhow and scored more prolifically throughout his career comparatively, if he hasn`t done it and only gotten over 60 once Gretzky isn`t doing that, sorry.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

Ovechkin is the best goal scorer of all time and would absolutely obliterate the 80`s. I have proven I know what I`m talking about everywhere in this thread.

He would have already slowed down by now if he played back then, the beatings he'd take.

 

[Clark Gillies]

Maybe not 70-80, but PRIME Wayne Gretzky was the greatest goal scorer ever so him getting a few goals in the 60s i wouldn't doubt. Yes, he was that good. The problem for Wayne is his goal scoring prime was extremely short compared to guys like Ovi who's goal scoring prowless lasted much longer.

Edmonton Gretzky was a better Goal scorer than Ovechkin ever was. Ovi is an all time great but I would take Gretzky over him everyday of the week and twice on Sunday’s.
I would argue that Mike Bossy was an even better than Gretzky just in Goal scoring, obviously not overall.
Bossy’s 10 years with NYI are comparable with Wayne’s years with the Oil.

Talents like that will shine in any era, they were playing with logs compared to the composite sticks of today.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

Still 170 to go

 

[Randyne]

Edmonton Gretzky was a better Goal scorer than Ovechkin ever was.

1979/80-1987/88
Edmonton 3478 GF
W. Gretzky 583 G = 16.76%
2005/06-2019/20
Washington 3603 GF
A. Ovechkin 706 G =19.59%
Ovechkin's proportion of team goals 1.17 times more despite playing 456 more games (with about same amount of played games Gretzky's share drops to 14.55%)

 

[jalidi]

If you really want to compare the Oiler years of Gretzky vs Ovechkin's first nine years, you'll only get 422 goals versus Gretzky's 583.

In that period Ovechkin played 679 games for a GPG average of 0.6215. Gretzky had 696 games played for a GPG of 0.8376.

He was, by far, the best goal scorer of the entire 80's; including his time with LA, he put in at least 40 goals every single year of that decade, something even Ovechkin has never done over a similar period.

And the thing is, Gretzky likely could've scored even more, but consciously decided to change his game and rack assists up. He factored in more of his team's goals than probably anybody, ever.

edit: I went back and did Ovechkin's BEST nine years in 715 games played (lowest 49 goals scored, highest 65) and got 477 goals for a GPG of 0.6671. More than a hundred goals short. Oiler Gretzky's goal scoring was just on another planet.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

If you really want to compare the Oiler years of Gretzky vs Ovechkin's first nine years, you'll only get 422 goals versus Gretzky's 583.

In that period Ovechkin played 679 games for a GPG average of 0.6215. Gretzky had 696 games played for a GPG of 0.8376.

He was, by far, the best goal scorer of the entire 80's; including his time with LA, he put in at least 40 goals every single year of that decade, something even Ovechkin has never done over a similar period.

And the thing is, Gretzky likely could've scored even more, but consciously decided to change his game and rack assists up. He factored in more of his team's goals than probably anybody, ever.

edit: I went back and did Ovechkin's BEST nine years in 715 games played (lowest 49 goals scored, highest 65) and got 477 goals for a GPG of 0.6671. More than a hundred goals short. Oiler Gretzky's goal scoring was just on another planet.

I think the most impressive thing about Gretzky's greatness is, he still got all those goals despite being a pass first player. It's like your PG having the assist AND points record in basketball, it's absurd.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

Off topic slightly, I always wonder if Wayne regrets never getting to 900 goals regular season? I doubt he worries about it, but man... right on the cusp.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

He would have already slowed down by now if he played back then, the beatings he'd take.

What a joke, yes arguably the most durable forward of all time would go from scoring 90 goals per season to potting an easy 50 until he`s 40. Superstars were more protected than ever in the 80`s and if you`re inferring a 230lbs machine wouldn`t hold up as well as a lithe Gretzky comparatively then el oh el.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

Edmonton Gretzky was a better Goal scorer than Ovechkin ever was. Ovi is an all time great but I would take Gretzky over him everyday of the week and twice on Sunday’s.
I would argue that Mike Bossy was an even better than Gretzky just in Goal scoring, obviously not overall.
Bossy’s 10 years with NYI are comparable with Wayne’s years with the Oil.

Talents like that will shine in any era, they were playing with logs compared to the composite sticks of today.

Ya, just no to both and we`ve already done this dance.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

If you really want to compare the Oiler years of Gretzky vs Ovechkin's first nine years, you'll only get 422 goals versus Gretzky's 583.

In that period Ovechkin played 679 games for a GPG average of 0.6215. Gretzky had 696 games played for a GPG of 0.8376.

He was, by far, the best goal scorer of the entire 80's; including his time with LA, he put in at least 40 goals every single year of that decade, something even Ovechkin has never done over a similar period.

And the thing is, Gretzky likely could've scored even more, but consciously decided to change his game and rack assists up. He factored in more of his team's goals than probably anybody, ever.

edit: I went back and did Ovechkin's BEST nine years in 715 games played (lowest 49 goals scored, highest 65) and got 477 goals for a GPG of 0.6671. More than a hundred goals short. Oiler Gretzky's goal scoring was just on another planet.

Ya, it`s almost as if the era Gretzky played in scored far more goals overall comparatively. That couldn`t be it though...