What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?

[PuckThumper11]

Off topic slightly, I always wonder if Wayne regrets never getting to 900 goals regular season? I doubt he worries about it, but man... right on the cusp.

I've always thought that, too. I mean just six away. Even hanging on for one more season would have made sense to climb that mountain.

 

[filinski77]

If you really want to compare the Oiler years of Gretzky vs Ovechkin's first nine years, you'll only get 422 goals versus Gretzky's 583.

In that period Ovechkin played 679 games for a GPG average of 0.6215. Gretzky had 696 games played for a GPG of 0.8376.

He was, by far, the best goal scorer of the entire 80's; including his time with LA, he put in at least 40 goals every single year of that decade, something even Ovechkin has never done over a similar period.

And the thing is, Gretzky likely could've scored even more, but consciously decided to change his game and rack assists up. He factored in more of his team's goals than probably anybody, ever.

edit: I went back and did Ovechkin's BEST nine years in 715 games played (lowest 49 goals scored, highest 65) and got 477 goals for a GPG of 0.6671. More than a hundred goals short. Oiler Gretzky's goal scoring was just on another planet.

Funny how that 35% increase in goal/gp over Ovi could be explained from Wayne playing in a 30-40% higher scoring era?

And then Ovi continued to do the exact same thing for 7 years after those first 9, meanwhile Gretzkys goal scoring fell off a cliff.

You can’t compare raw numbers from the last 15 years to the 80s, unless you’re ready to go on the record and say that Ovi winning rockets with 50 goals (and the next best guy having 40-45) is the equivalent to a 10th place finish in some of Gretzkys years when there were over 10 50 goal scorers.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

Funny how that 35% increase in goal/gp over Ovi could be explained from Wayne playing in a 30-40% higher scoring era?

And then Ovi continued to do the exact same thing for 7 years after those first 9, meanwhile Gretzkys goal scoring fell off a cliff.

You can’t compare raw numbers from the last 15 years to the 80s, unless you’re ready to go on the record and say that Ovi winning rockets with 50 goals (and the next best guy having 40-45) is the equivalent to a 10th place finish in some of Gretzkys years when there were over 10 50 goal scorers.

It`s like talking to a wall that runs in a circle when you prove them wrong.

 

[jalidi]

Off topic slightly, I always wonder if Wayne regrets never getting to 900 goals regular season? I doubt he worries about it, but man... right on the cusp.

I think Gretzky contents himself with the fact that his very last professional hockey goal topped Gordie Howe's 1071 career total. He really couldn't play anymore after that last horrific season, at least not to his personal standard. I think I recall him saying in an interview that players were yelling before they would come near him on the ice, and he knew it was time to retire. But if you count regular season and playoff goals, Gretzky has 1016. He's actually the only 1000-2000-3000 point player, and that's honestly good enough.

Ya, it`s almost as if the era Gretzky played in scored far more goals overall comparatively. That couldn`t be it though...

The statement posed was that Ovechkin was a better goal scorer than Edmonton Gretzky ever was, which is what I was refuting. He did play in an extremely high scoring era, but he still had to put all those pucks in the net himself.

And then Ovi continued to do the exact same thing for 7 years after those first 9, meanwhile Gretzkys goal scoring fell off a cliff.

Same as above, we're talking Edmonton Gretzky here. It was a higher scoring era, but they didn't score them for him. And yes Gretzky's goals dropped like a stone after he turned 30, but even today after all Ovechkin has done, he still remains 170 goals behind. I don't doubt that Ovechkin will eventually pass Gretzky, and that accomplishment in this low-scoring era will undeniably make him the best goal scorer of all time. Adjusted for era, he probably already is.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

What a joke, yes arguably the most durable forward of all time would go from scoring 90 goals per season to potting an easy 50 until he`s 40. Superstars were more protected than ever in the 80`s and if you`re inferring a 230lbs machine wouldn`t hold up as well as a lithe Gretzky comparatively then el oh el.

Disagree that they were more protected then. Plus, he probably wouldn't have had the training he does today.

 

[filinski77]

The statement posed was that Ovechkin was a better goal scorer than Edmonton Gretzky ever was, which is what I was refuting. He did play in an extremely high scoring era, but he still had to put all those pucks in the net himself.

Same as above, we're talking Edmonton Gretzky here. It was a higher scoring era, but they didn't score them for him. And yes Gretzky's goals dropped like a stone after he turned 30, but even today after all Ovechkin has done, he still remains 170 goals behind. I don't doubt that Ovechkin will eventually pass Gretzky, and that accomplishment in this low-scoring era will undeniably make him the best goal scorer of all time. Adjusted for era, he probably already is.

No-one's saying Gretzky doesn't get credit for the goals that he physically scored, because of course he does. The whole point is realizing that the scoring environments were significantly different.

The average scoring for Ovechkins career has been 2.85 goals, whereas for Gretzkys first 9 years (his Oilers years), it's 3.82. Gretzky's first 9 years were 34% higher on average than Ovi's career.

	Goals	After 34% adj
2005-06	52	70
2006-07	46	62
2007-08	65	87
2008-09	56	75
2009-10	50	67
2010-11	32	43
2011-12	38	51
2012-13	32	43
2013-14	51	68
2014-15	53	71
2015-16	50	67
2016-17	33	44
2017-18	49	66
2018-19	51	68
2019-20	48	64
2020-21	18	24
	724	970

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If you then wanted to compare first 9 years, it's 583 for Gretzky vs. 565 for Ovi (and this 9 year period even includes 2 of Ovi's 3 worst seasons, plus a half lockout in a season he was on fire). So it's trivially close.

To support that the league average scoring impacted all top goalscorers (not just Gretzky/Ovi), here are the 1st, 2nd, 5th, and 10th goal finishers for Gretzky's 9 year period:

	79/80	80/81	81/82	82/83	83/84	84/85	85/86	86/87	87/88	Average
1st	56	68	92	71	87	73	68	62	70	72
2nd	56	58	64	66	56	71	61	58	56	61
5th	51	55	54	56	52	55	53	52	51	53
10th	47	48	50	48	47	46	46	42	48	47

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

	05/06	06/07	07/08	08/09	09/10	10/11	11/12	12/13 (to 82)	13/14	14/15	15/16	16/17	17/18	18/19
1st	56	52	65	56	51	50	60	55	51	53	50	44	49	51
2nd	54	50	52	46	51	45	50	50	43	43	46	40	44	50
5th	50	43	43	40	42	41	38	39	37	37	38	39	42	44
10th	40	40	40	39	35	34	36	36	34	33	33	34	39	41
Avg 1st	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72
Avg 2nd	61	61	61	61	61	61	61	61	61	61	61	61	61	61
Avg 5th	53	53	53	53	53	53	53	53	53	53	53	53	53	53
Avg 10th	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47
Inc% - 1st	28%	38%	11%	28%	41%	44%	20%	32%	41%	36%	44%	63%	47%	41%
Inc% - 2nd	12%	21%	17%	32%	19%	35%	21%	22%	41%	41%	32%	52%	38%	21%
Inc% - 5th	6%	24%	24%	33%	27%	30%	40%	35%	44%	44%	40%	36%	27%	21%
Inc% - 10th	17%	17%	17%	20%	34%	38%	30%	31%	38%	42%	42%	38%	20%	14%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Ovi played the majority of his career 08/09 to 17/18 where goal-scoring finishes were significantly lower than what was happening in Gretzky's time. He played HALF of his career in a period where 33-36 goals was good for a 10th place finish, whereas Gretzky played in an era where 10th place would have been a high enough total to win the Rocket (if you removed Ovi).

Obviously era adjustment isn't perfect and never will be, but this clearly supports that Ovi's 724 is significantly more impressive than 724 from a past era. Anyone who says that Ovi wouldn't have the health to play back then is fooling themselves. Ovi is the most durable and physical player from this era (when considering the elites), and would be the last person that couldn't sustain it in the 80's.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

Anyone who says that Ovi wouldn't have the health to play back then is fooling themselves. Ovi is the most durable and physical player from this era (when considering the elites), and would be the last person that couldn't sustain it in the 80's.

Durability is much less of an issue when headshots are allowed. Part of what made Gretzky great was his ability to not get hit in such a rough league. The big hitters/enforcers of the time described trying to hit him like hitting a shadow. Ovechkin still gets hit, just the rules protect the players a lot more now. You can't say he would be as durable, when the ways they both stay healthy are that different.

 

[filinski77]

Durability is much less of an issue when headshots are allowed. Part of what made Gretzky great was his ability to not get hit in such a rough league. The big hitters/enforcers of the time described trying to hit him like hitting a shadow. Ovechkin still gets hit, just the rules protect the players a lot more now. You can't say he would be as durable, when the ways they both stay healthy are that different.

I see what you mean, but at the end of the day there were tons of high-skill players and physical players that all played lengthy careers back then. In every era there are injury prone players, and players who have large declines at certain ages.

It's not like Ovechkin couldn't adapt his physical play if he needed to. His biggest asset has always been his shot, and that is one of the easiest things to keep lethal for a long time. At the end of the day, saying Ovi couldn't still have a long and productive career back then is like saying that nobody today could, which is just ridiculous.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

Disagree that they were more protected then. Plus, he probably wouldn't have had the training he does today.

I mean, they literally were, you could hardly touch Gretzky due to no instigator and tough guys everywhere ready to kill you if you did. No one was cheap shotting superstars for the most part because if they did it was a death sentence.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

I think Gretzky contents himself with the fact that his very last professional hockey goal topped Gordie Howe's 1071 career total. He really couldn't play anymore after that last horrific season, at least not to his personal standard. I think I recall him saying in an interview that players were yelling before they would come near him on the ice, and he knew it was time to retire. But if you count regular season and playoff goals, Gretzky has 1016. He's actually the only 1000-2000-3000 point player, and that's honestly good enough.

The statement posed was that Ovechkin was a better goal scorer than Edmonton Gretzky ever was, which is what I was refuting. He did play in an extremely high scoring era, but he still had to put all those pucks in the net himself.

Same as above, we're talking Edmonton Gretzky here. It was a higher scoring era, but they didn't score them for him. And yes Gretzky's goals dropped like a stone after he turned 30, but even today after all Ovechkin has done, he still remains 170 goals behind. I don't doubt that Ovechkin will eventually pass Gretzky, and that accomplishment in this low-scoring era will undeniably make him the best goal scorer of all time. Adjusted for era, he probably already is.

Nothing you posted showed that, it just showed a massive total in the highest scoring era of all time. Adjusted for era Ovechkin`s 65 goal ranks higher than Gretzky`s highest 2 do.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Ovie is arguably the single most durable player of the past 2 decades.

He'd be fine in any era. He'd probably be better actually. The modern NHL suspended Ovie until he eased up his game. He's always had excellent on-ice awareness.

 

[Sentinel]

I don't even think comparing players from different eras is practical. They had completely different access to equipment, different training regimens, dietary guidelines, etc.

Today we have a much, much deeper pool of talent. 3rd and 4th liners of the NHL today would have been very effective players in previous generations. Ovechkin has access to better training, coaching, diet, equipment. Etc but he also has to deal with exponentially more talent than Howe's generation.

Even comparing Howe and Gretzky isn't practical. Totally different eras.

We are comparing them to their peers. They had access to the same training, coaches, diet, and equipment as their peers.

 

[The Panther]

If you look at Gretzky's two highest goals seasons (87 goals in 74 games, and 92 goals in 80 games), I would suggest both -- esp., the first -- are indeed "better" than Ovechkin's 65-goal season.

In 1984, Gretzky missed six games, yet his 87 goals were a staggering 31 more than second place. I don't care about scoring rates, 31 goals is a far higher total than Ovechkin has won any scoring title by. Now, of course Goulet's 56 goals in second place that season aren't a huge second-place total for the era (Lanny had 66 the year prior), but from 1983-84 onward for about five years (until peak Mario arrives) there aren't any scorers with more than 60 goals (and 60 was done only once, by Bossy). Note I'm not counting Kurri here, since his 71 and 68 goal seasons had about 80% of the assists by Gretzky. Anyway, that was a huge individual goals season.

In 1982, it was the highest-scoring season in modern NHL history, so we have to put it in context, and Mike Bossy scored 64. But, again, 92 goals over 64 (Bossy not exactly a slouch in goal scoring history) is pretty staggering and still probably a bigger single season win than Ovechkin ever achieved.

Anyway, these discussions are kind of pointless because (a) Ovechkin is mainly a goal scorer, while Gretzky wasn't, and (b) it's not about Ovechkin's chances to score 895.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

I still think he will get there, but he won't blow by it. He'll limp to it and probably retire the season he does.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

169....

 

[MadLuke]

Even comparing Howe and Gretzky isn't practical. Totally different eras.

Today we have a much, much deeper pool of talent. 3rd and 4th liners of the NHL today would have been very effective players in previous generations

I imagine the thread has already touch this a lot but it is to overestimate how much that is true. For example being the best Canadian at hockey is not a deeper pool of talents than many of the previous era and the best Canadian is often in conversation for the best player in the world (or more obviously is right now with McDavid), same goes for how well Team canada seem to do in international tournament versus the past, the 2010s have been arguably their most dominant decade.

 

[Fataldogg]

I imagine the thread has already touch this a lot but it is to overestimate how much that is true. For example being the best Canadian at hockey is not a deeper pool of talents than many of the previous era and the best Canadian is often in conversation for the best player in the world (or more obviously right now with McDavid)

Isn't that photo a little misleading? Howe played primarily in the 50s, 60s and 70s.

Gretzky started at the tail end of the 70s, and played through the the 80s and 90s.

Howe played on the Whalers 79-80 [yes I had to Google that], which was Gretzky's second season.

Comparing a player who primarily played from the 1950s to 1970s to a player to primarily played in the 1980s and 1990s isn't an apples to apples comparison. The 50s and 80s are very different.

 

[filinski77]

If you look at Gretzky's two highest goals seasons (87 goals in 74 games, and 92 goals in 80 games), I would suggest both -- esp., the first -- are indeed "better" than Ovechkin's 65-goal season.

In 1984, Gretzky missed six games, yet his 87 goals were a staggering 31 more than second place. I don't care about scoring rates, 31 goals is a far higher total than Ovechkin has won any scoring title by. Now, of course Goulet's 56 goals in second place that season aren't a huge second-place total for the era (Lanny had 66 the year prior), but from 1983-84 onward for about five years (until peak Mario arrives) there aren't any scorers with more than 60 goals (and 60 was done only once, by Bossy). Note I'm not counting Kurri here, since his 71 and 68 goal seasons had about 80% of the assists by Gretzky. Anyway, that was a huge individual goals season.

In 1982, it was the highest-scoring season in modern NHL history, so we have to put it in context, and Mike Bossy scored 64. But, again, 92 goals over 64 (Bossy not exactly a slouch in goal scoring history) is pretty staggering and still probably a bigger single season win than Ovechkin ever achieved.

Anyway, these discussions are kind of pointless because (a) Ovechkin is mainly a goal scorer, while Gretzky wasn't, and (b) it's not about Ovechkin's chances to score 895.

Great points and in the end I think that it comes down to the longevity that Ovi had. N/A in the charts below indicate that the player did not have more goals than 2nd/10th/20th etc.

	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Ovi	52	46	65	56	50	32	38	32	51	53	50	33	49	51	48
2nd	N/A	N/A	52	46	N/A	N/A	N/A	29	43	43	46	N/A	44	50	48
10th	40	40	40	39	35	N/A	36	21	34	33	33	N/A	39	41	34
20th	35	36	32	33	30	32	31	18	30	28	30	32	34	36	29
% over 2nd	#VALUE!	#VALUE!	25%	22%	#VALUE!	#VALUE!	#VALUE!	10%	19%	23%	9%	#VALUE!	11%	2%	0%
% over 10th	30%	15%	63%	44%	43%	#VALUE!	6%	52%	50%	61%	52%	#VALUE!	26%	24%	41%
% over 20th	49%	28%	103%	70%	67%	0%	23%	78%	70%	89%	67%	3%	44%	42%	66%
	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991
Gretzky	51	55	92	71	87	73	52	62	40	54	40	41
2nd	N/A	N/A	64	66	56	71	N/A	58	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10th	47	48	50	48	47	46	46	42	N/A	46	N/A	N/A
20th	40	39	40	41	40	41	41	38	N/A	41	40	40
% over 2nd	#VALUE!	#VALUE!	44%	8%	55%	3%	#VALUE!	7%	#VALUE!	#VALUE!	#VALUE!	#VALUE!
% over 10th	9%	15%	84%	48%	85%	59%	13%	48%	#VALUE!	17%	#VALUE!	#VALUE!
% over 20th	28%	41%	130%	73%	118%	78%	27%	63%	#VALUE!	32%	0%	#VALUE!

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And then sorting brings you to this:

	Over 2nd			Over 10th			Over 20th
Gretzky	55%		Gretzky	85%		Gretzky	130%
Gretzky	44%		Gretzky	84%		Gretzky	118%
Ovi	25%		Ovi	63%		Ovi	103%
Ovi	23%		Ovi	61%		Ovi	89%
Ovi	22%		Gretzky	59%		Gretzky	78%
Ovi	19%		Ovi	52%		Ovi	78%
Ovi	11%		Ovi	52%		Gretzky	73%
Ovi	10%		Ovi	50%		Ovi	70%
Ovi	9%		Gretzky	48%		Ovi	70%
Gretzky	8%		Gretzky	48%		Ovi	67%
Gretzky	7%		Ovi	44%		Ovi	67%
Gretzky	3%		Ovi	43%		Ovi	66%
Ovi	2%		Ovi	41%		Gretzky	63%
Ovi	0%		Ovi	30%		Ovi	49%
			Ovi	26%		Ovi	44%
			Ovi	24%		Ovi	42%
			Gretzky	17%		Gretzky	41%
			Ovi	15%		Gretzky	32%
			Gretzky	15%		Ovi	28%
			Gretzky	13%		Gretzky	28%
			Gretzky	9%		Gretzky	27%
			Ovi	6%		Ovi	23%
						Ovi	3%
						Ovi	0%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

As you can see, it's Gretzky's 2 best seasons that overshadow Ovi, and then from there Ovi heavily beats out Wayne. One side could say that the NHL is much more competitive now than in the 80's (making it harder to separate by large totals), and one side could also say that Gretzky could have scored more if he wanted to (I don't buy it considering that he lead the league in shots many times, and also had large fluctuations in shooting% which correlated heavily with his highs and lows for goals).

Either way, Ovi did it almost as good as Wayne (see above for my comment on Wayne's best 2 seasons), but the difference is that Ovi did it for much longer.

Even if you look at each players best totals (instead of looking at relative to their peers) for their best 4 years, if you adjust Ovi's totals to the totals that Wayne head, it's neck and neck, and then the difference after that comes from the fact that Ovi has a significantly larger number of high quality goal-scoring seasons than Wayne does.

		Ovi				Gretz		Ovi Adj
2008	2.78	65		1982	4.01	92		94
2009	2.91	56		1984	3.94	87		76
2015	2.73	53		1985	3.89	73		76
2014	2.74	51		1983	3.86	71		72

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

In the end, I think I'd be comfortable saying that at their absolute peak (whether it be one season, one game etc), Lemieux and Gretzky are probably both 'better' peak goalscorers. But when looking at the best goalscorer all-time, or the greatest goalscorer all-time, I think Ovi wins out here. Simply because his top of the line numbers are just as good, or only slightly worse than Gretzky (and Lemieux), but he was able to do it for more than just a few years.

Ps. Sorry for the crazy amount of excel items pasted into this, I have no idea how to use spoilers on this site (sad I know).

 

[Beukeboom]

I mean, they literally were, you could hardly touch Gretzky due to no instigator and tough guys everywhere ready to kill you if you did. No one was cheap shotting superstars for the most part because if they did it was a death sentence.

I never understod this argument. So you really think Dave Brown or Bob Probert were terrified of Semenko, and that's the reason they didn't hit Wayne? The real reason is of course that they they couldn't catch him. He was incredibly elusive, something Denis Potvin mentions. Hence the nickname "the shadow".

Ovie is a machine, but in the 80's his style of play would have to come with some 10-15 fighting majors a season. Not saying he couldn't have learned that part of the game, but it was a way tougher league and staying injury free was tricky for a wrecking ball. Look at what happened to Cam Neely.

Edit: The difference now (and we're kind of OT,) is that weak players target stars too. Back in the day you'd have to fight if you were a pest. Today not so much.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

At this point it really depends on how long he wants to play. He's the type of athlete that could probably play until he's 45, if he really wanted to. He's durable as all hell.

It's a shame that COVID plus a lockout and a half have robbed him of roughly 150 games. If he plays those games Gretzky is no question. The real question would be, can he score 1,000?

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

At this point it really depends on how long he wants to play. He's the type of athlete that could probably play until he's 45, if he really wanted to. He's durable as all hell.

It's a shame that COVID plus a lockout and a half have robbed him of roughly 150 games. If he plays those games Gretzky is no question. The real question would be, can he score 1,000?

If he plays another ten seasons and averages 27 goals a season he could get there. It’s absolutely incredible to even think of the possibility.

 

[Thenameless]

Then you're fooling yourself. If no one has even sniffed 70 in the modern era there's zero chance Gretzky comes in and comes close, zero chance.

If you told any hockey analyst from the mid 70s that I guy would come along and have a 92 goal season, and have four 200 point seasons, he would have said zero chance of that. And I'm being serious.

 

[Zuluss]

If you told any hockey analyst from the mid 70s that I guy would come along and have a 92 goal season, and have four 200 point seasons, he would have said zero chance of that. And I'm being serious.

I am not sure about that. Esposito had a 76-goal season, and Esposito was never thought of as the best goal-scorer ever. So it was reasonable to expect that someone better than Esposito would show up and break the 80-goal mark - and probably the 90-goal mark too, if a few more games would be added to the season, as they actually were. After all, even Reggie Leech and Steve Shutt managed 60-goal seasons in late 1970s, so a generational goal-scorer should have been a lock for 75 goals in a peak season at the very least.

1980s and early 1990s proved that would have been a correct way of thinking. Besides Gretzky, we had a 85-goal season by Lemieux, a 86-goal season by Brett Hull, and a bunch of 70-goal seasons, including one by Bernie Nicholls in 1988/89 and a 76-goal season by rookie Mogilny.

Now fast forward to the current era, when the maximum number of goals since 1996 is 65 (Ovechkin 07/08), the last time someone scored 60 goals was 2011/12 (Stamkos) and outside Ovechkin, since 2007 we had six 50-goal seasons (Stamkos x2, Crosby, Malkin, Perry, Draisaitl). It seems obvious that peak Ovechkin and peak Stamkos were not worse than peak Nicholls; likewise, I think that peak Gretzky in the current era may have cracked 70 goals - but maybe not.

 

[Thenameless]

likewise, I think that peak Gretzky in the current era may have cracked 70 goals - but maybe not.

Reasonable people come to similar conclusions. I'm on board with Gretzky being able to hit around 70 plus or minus in this era. What's not cool is people saying he'd get 20 because McDavid and Ovechkin are so much better.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

At this point it really depends on how long he wants to play. He's the type of athlete that could probably play until he's 45, if he really wanted to. He's durable as all hell.

It's a shame that COVID plus a lockout and a half have robbed him of roughly 150 games. If he plays those games Gretzky is no question. The real question would be, can he score 1,000?

He won't need to play that long at his rate.