What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?

[madinsomniac]

Yep. Its definitely debatable.
Make a case for several guys.
My picks in order. Lighting the Lamp
1.Gretzky
2.Mario
3.Bossy
4.OV
5.B.Hull

Outside of flipping mario and Gretzky id agree... there are so many factors to consider though... Lemieux and Gretzky played the first part of their careers in the wide open 80’s, but the end parts in the trap era that would have killed any goalscorer a lot... and AO is using composite sticks that any of the other guys would have killed for...

If you had to score a goal in a random era in a random manner id easily take Gretzky or Lemieux over AO... he is great, but i think its a lot of recency bias... just like how crosby and malkin are fantastic but neither are close to the talent levels of Lemieux or Gretzky....

 

[habdynasty]

0.00

 

[filinski77]

Yep. Its definitely debatable.
Make a case for several guys.
My picks in order. Lighting the Lamp
1.Gretzky
2.Mario
3.Bossy
4.OV
5.B.Hull

There is nothing that should put Bossy above Ovechkin.

Goals above 10th place
73%	Bossy
63%	Ovi
61%	Ovi
52%	Ovi
52%	Ovi
50%	Ovi
45%	Bossy
44%	Ovi
43%	Ovi
41%	Ovi
39%	Bossy
36%	Bossy
33%	Bossy
30%	Ovi
28%	Bossy
26%	Bossy
26%	Ovi
24%	Ovi
15%	Ovi
11%	Bossy
11%	Bossy
6%	Ovi
-3%	Ovi
-6%	Ovi

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

(I even did Bossy a favor and removed Gretzky's goal totals completely from each year). Even if Bossy played longer, in his last 6 years of his career, his best % above 10th was 39%, which wouldn't even make Ovechkins top 8.

 

[dalewood12]

10%

 

[PaulD]

There is nothing that should put Bossy above Ovechkin.

Goals above 10th place
73%	Bossy
63%	Ovi
61%	Ovi
52%	Ovi
52%	Ovi
50%	Ovi
45%	Bossy
44%	Ovi
43%	Ovi
41%	Ovi
39%	Bossy
36%	Bossy
33%	Bossy
30%	Ovi
28%	Bossy
26%	Bossy
26%	Ovi
24%	Ovi
15%	Ovi
11%	Bossy
11%	Bossy
6%	Ovi
-3%	Ovi
-6%	Ovi

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

(I even did Bossy a favor and removed Gretzky's goal totals completely from each year). Even if Bossy played longer, in his last 6 years of his career, his best % above 10th was 39%, which wouldn't even make Ovechkins top 8.

Call it a personal preference on a close call.
.

 

[PaulD]

Outside of flipping mario and Gretzky id agree... there are so many factors to consider though... Lemieux and Gretzky played the first part of their careers in the wide open 80’s, but the end parts in the trap era that would have killed any goalscorer a lot... and AO is using composite sticks that any of the other guys would have killed for...

If you had to score a goal in a random era in a random manner id easily take Gretzky or Lemieux over AO... he is great, but i think its a lot of recency bias... just like how crosby and malkin are fantastic but neither are close to the talent levels of Lemieux or Gretzky....

Good post.
I would not argue putting Mario first.

 

[lawrence]

He needs to score 182 more goals to set the record.

 

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

60%.

Even if he scores at the same pace as he has this season (33 goals over a full season), he'll play until he's 41 to get it done.

I think he's got more to give than he has through 20 games this season too.

 

[wacko2]

IMO, virtually no chance

 

[JPeeper]

If he keeps in good shape like Jagr does/did, I can see it, I mean that'd give him like 7 more seasons which I don't think he'll play that many.

I don't see him leaving for the KHL or retiring from hockey in general if he is close to the record. He definitely wants the record and I see him continually playing until the record is broken. Unless he massively slows down and puts up like 10 goals a full 82 game season or something.

 

[McOvechking]

One percent.

 

[jcs0218]

I don't know why anyone thinks he won't break it.

He will keep playing until he breaks it, and some team (probably the Capitals) will keep paying him until he breaks it so they can have something to market to their fans.

Unless he gets injured and his career ends because of it, he will break it. He will play until he is 45 if he has to.

 

[The Panther]

I don't know why anyone thinks he won't break it.

Maybe because there are far, far more reasons he won't break it than he will. It's not all up to the player's will-power.

I mean, Ovechkin is a horse -- an iron man of the highest order. But how long can he play without injury? Time is no longer on his side, and he hasn't had a major injury yet in his NHL career. The odds of him playing every game from age 35 to 40 and not getting injured seems extremely low, and that's before we get into the normal aging slow-down.

What I'm saying is, so far Ovi has beaten the odds in every way, so yes there is always a chance. But it's very small.

 

[Hasa92]

I had my hopes up but... Not after this season, he still has maybe something like 15% change of doing it.

Before Corona I feel that he had something like 50/50 of breaking the record.

 

[ChuckW]

I'll go with..........zero.

Of course it's zero. It always was zero.

 

[ChuckW]

Call it a personal preference on a close call.
.

If I had to bet my life on one guy to score against a random NHL goalie, from any era since the 70s, I'd want the puck carrier to be a healthy, in-his-prime Mike Bossy. Dude could score any kind of goal, from anywhere. He had laser velocity, pinpoint accuracy, great decision-making/shot selection ability, and a very low unforced error rate (missing the net, losing an edge, other types of f***ing up).

Bossy was deadly with the puck. Gretzky flat out said Bossy was a better goal scorer than he was (to be fair he also said this about Lemieux).

 

[snag]

I don't know why anyone thinks he won't break it.

He will keep playing until he breaks it, and some team (probably the Capitals) will keep paying him until he breaks it so they can have something to market to their fans.

Unless he gets injured and his career ends because of it, he will break it. He will play until he is 45 if he has to.

I dunno....I think that is something that sours a legacy. I believe it was Ryne Sandberg who said when he retired, he decided to leave the game before the game left him.

If he is already the GOAT as many people say....and he feels the same way...to chase a number in such a fashion for anything but vanity?

That's not the way I would want to go out and I doubt OV would either.

 

[Cats2TheCup]

99%

 

[PaulD]

If I had to bet my life on one guy to score against a random NHL goalie, from any era since the 70s, I'd want the puck carrier to be a healthy, in-his-prime Bossy. Dude could score any kind of goal, from anywhere. He had laser velocity, pinpoint accuracy, great decision-making/shot selection ability, and a very low unforced error rate (missing the net, losing an edge, other types of f***ing up).

Bossy was deadly with the puck.

Could not agree more.
He is in any debate for greatest "sniper" of all time.
Did not need the big wind up either.
Could snap a puck at 95 miles an hour barely moving his arms. Ha !

 

[jcs0218]

I dunno....I think that is something that sours a legacy. I believe it was Ryne Sandberg who said when he retired, he decided to leave the game before the game left him.

If he is already the GOAT as many people say....and he feels the same way...to chase a number in such a fashion for anything but vanity?

That's not the way I would want to go out and I doubt OV would either.

Marleau is doing it right now, and he has always been as humble of a player as anyone.

Why don't you think Ovechkin would do the same?

This is the same guy who in the past has went way over-the-top while celebrating a goal. Numerous times. To the point that people were calling him a bad sportsman.

I think Ovechkin is exactly the type of player who would love the glitz and glamor that would come with breaking Gretzky's goals record, regardless of how he does it and regardless of if it means hanging on too long.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

2 goals in 3 games so far. Heating up? I've been very vocal that I don't want him to do it! But I'm starting to think it's inevitable. The guy isn't slowing down.

 

[Amazinmets73]

60%.

Even if he scores at the same pace as he has this season (33 goals over a full season), he'll play until he's 41 to get it done.

I think he's got more to give than he has through 20 games this season too.

Right, but not realistic to expect 38-41 yo Ovie to produce at the same level at 35 yo Ovie. The converse is that I agree with you that Ovie has scored goals below expected variance this year.

 

[Amazinmets73]

2 goals in 3 games so far. Heating up? I've been very vocal that I don't want him to do it! But I'm starting to think it's inevitable. The guy isn't slowing down.

Ovie heating up was definitely inevitable. Breaking the record isn't.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

I dunno....I think that is something that sours a legacy. I believe it was Ryne Sandberg who said when he retired, he decided to leave the game before the game left him.

If he is already the GOAT as many people say....and he feels the same way...to chase a number in such a fashion for anything but vanity?

That's not the way I would want to go out and I doubt OV would either.

Ovie has already said that he will retire first before being a joke on the ice.

The

Marleau is doing it right now, and he has always been as humble of a player as anyone.

Why don't you think Ovechkin would do the same?

This is the same guy who in the past has went way over-the-top while celebrating a goal. Numerous times. To the point that people were calling him a bad sportsman.

I think Ovechkin is exactly the type of player who would love the glitz and glamor that would come with breaking Gretzky's goals record, regardless of how he does it and regardless of if it means hanging on too long.

Give me a break. Many people have commented how they love Ovie's enthusiasm for the game and his goal scoring celebrations. For example, Phil Esposito has said as much. Dinosaurs like Cherry were the biggest whiners complaining about that.

As for tarnishing his legacy, Ovie said he doesn't want to be a joke. He said he would retire from the NHL before that happens.

He'll retire if his play falls off a cliff. Otherwise, I believe he'll play until he has the record. The NHL definitely wants him to do it. It's a fantastic story.

 

[Jeremy Hronek]

Selanne put up 232 goals after his 35 birthday. Ovechkin is a better goal scorer and less injury prone.