What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?

[Alexander the Gr8]

0 and it's always been 0the mere thought is ridiculous

If he scores 30 goals over the next 6 years he gets it.

In the event that he scores 40 or more in an upcoming season, he would have the luxury of hitting it with a 20 goal season at the end.

How is it ridiculous?

 

[John Price]

it is likely

 

[Spirit of 67]

The logician in me thinks he have very little chance.

But it's the same one that says you bet against Ovie at your own peril.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

I will see where he stands after the 2022 season, that will tell a lot more than this shortened season.

 

[BMann]

Well that settles it. Close the thread.

It certainly does.

 

[PaulD]

I think there is a reason the person said greatest and not leading goal scorer.

Ron Francis, Michel Goulet and Patrick Marleau are not greater goal scorer than Maurice Richard, despite having more regular season goals.

Someone scoring 893 goals that would have played in the low scoring original 6, 50 games a season than 70 for most of is career could be a greater goal scorer than someone that would have scored 894 from 1977 to 1998

Except that Gretz scored 92 and 87 where nobody else in his league/season came close to that. Gretz scored 50 in 39 where nobody else in his league/season came close to that. If you only look at end of career goal total you make a valid point. But with Gretz he can be called the goat from many different angles.

 

[PaulD]

There you go, now you are bringing up actually valuable statistics that bolster an argument.

cheers

 

[filinski77]

I think it’s funny that when Ovi passed bossy and Mario the Ovi crowd said he was automatically better cause he had more goals. Now those same folks are saying well Ovi doesn’t need to pass Gretzky to be considered the best.

When Ovi passed Lemieux, he had already won 8 Rockets (compared to Lemieux's 3)

When Ovi passed Bossy, he had already won 6 Rockets (compared to Bossy's 2)

It was not about raw goal totals.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

0%.

 

[cowboy82nd]

Lock outs and strikes have done in other eras too. With Gretzky and Mario. It is too bad.
Never happened untill Betman arrived

I thought that is why John Ziegler was fired, because of a strike. This is taken from Wikipedia, so take it for what is's worth:

John Ziegler (1977–1992)[edit]

In 1977, John Ziegler became the fourth president of the NHL, succeeding Clarence Campbell. It was under Ziegler's watch that the WHA disbanded in 1979, and the NHL absorbed four of its teams (the Edmonton Oilers, Quebec Nordiques, Hartford Whalers, and original Winnipeg Jets), and near the end of his tenure in 1991, the San Jose Sharks began play, returning the NHL to the Bay Area for the first time since 1975.
In 1987, Rendez-vous '87, a series between the Soviet national team and a team of All-Stars from the NHL, was held in Quebec City. The two teams split the two-game series, and propelled an influx of Soviet players being drafted into the NHL by the end of the 1980s.[30]
He was forced out of office in 1992 by the settlement, which resolved the ten-day strike.

 

[PaulD]

I thought that is why John Ziegler was fired, because of a strike. This is taken from Wikipedia, so take it for what is's worth:

John Ziegler (1977–1992)[edit]

In 1977, John Ziegler became the fourth president of the NHL, succeeding Clarence Campbell. It was under Ziegler's watch that the WHA disbanded in 1979, and the NHL absorbed four of its teams (the Edmonton Oilers, Quebec Nordiques, Hartford Whalers, and original Winnipeg Jets), and near the end of his tenure in 1991, the San Jose Sharks began play, returning the NHL to the Bay Area for the first time since 1975.
In 1987, Rendez-vous '87, a series between the Soviet national team and a team of All-Stars from the NHL, was held in Quebec City. The two teams split the two-game series, and propelled an influx of Soviet players being drafted into the NHL by the end of the 1980s.[30]
He was forced out of office in 1992 by the settlement, which resolved the ten-day strike.

Good call. That was the shortest one on record (10 days) so it slipped my mind.

 

[Jeremy Hronek]

If Ovechkin wants to break the record there is no one way he won't break it. The question is whether he wants to play another 5-6 seasons.

 

[MadLuke]

Except that Gretz scored 92 and 87 where nobody else in his league/season came close to that. Gretz scored 50 in 39 where nobody else in his league/season came close to that. If you only look at end of career goal total you make a valid point. But with Gretz he can be called the goat from many different angles.

Exactly, I am not sure why anyone would bring raw total goals on a message board dedicated to hockey, elevate the arguments-debate over such ridicule simple stance.

 

[COHawk]

These people saying zero don't know how probability works. It is certainly still possible, which means it is not zero.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

These people saying zero don't know how probability works. It is certainly still possible, which means it is not zero.

True. Let's look at different events and their likelihood. Let's set some parameters first.

- Ovechkin has 8 goals in 20 games this year (0.4 GPG. His career GPG is 0.61)
- The Capitals have played 24 games out of 56. They have 32 left to play.
- Let's consider that Ovechkin will play all remaining games and scores at 0.55 GPG: 17.6 goals, let's give him 18 (rounding up) - I am being generous here, but it is not that unlikely
- That means he would finish the year at 732 goals
- He would enter 2021-2022 162 goals behind Gretzky
- He will be 36 years old by the time the season starts


Now, let's look at some scenarios:

- He plays 3 more seasons, retiring at 38. To beat the record, he would need to score 54 goals per season (0.65 GPG over 82 games)
- He plays 4 more seasons, retiring at 39. To beat the record, he would need to score 40.5 goals per season (0.49 GPG over 82 games)
- He plays 5 more seasons, retiring at 40. To beat the record, he would need to score 32.2 goals per season (0.39 GPG over 82 games)
- He plays 6 more seasons, retiring at 41. To beat the record, he would need to score 27 goals per season (0.33 GPG over 82 games)
- He plays 7 mores seasons, retiring at 42. To beat the record, he would need to score 23.14 goals per season (0.28 GPG over 82 games)

We have determined the productivity over 82 games and the longevity he would need. Now, let's look at availability:

- Ovechkin has played 1172 games in the NHL. We have him the last 32, that would put him at 1204 at the end of the year. 1204 out of a possible 1239, for an INCREDIBLE availability rate of 97.18% (0.9718). He misses an average of 2 games per year which is negligible. Anything can happen, but we have a 16 years sample size proving that Ovechkin is durable.

Last parameter I would like to look at... NHL "availability":

- Ovechkin has gone through 2 work stoppages and a pandemic that affected 2 seasons and COULD (unlikely) affect a 3rd.
- Is another work stoppage possible? Next one would be for 2026-27. 5 full seasons remaining before this is a possibility. Ovechkin could have beaten the record by then.
- Could COVID continue? Is another pandemic likely? Could a war stop the NHL for a while? I mean, the probability of an outside event affecting the NHL to a degree that would mean stop playing is less than 1%. It happened like twice in the league history. Even WW2 did not affect games being played.

I mean, I won't build a probability tree and go into 100 scenarios, but if we keep it rather simple and go with the most likely scenario, IMO: Ovechkin retires at 40.

- Ovechkin will play 5 more seasons. I'll put that at 80%.
- Ovechkin will maintain his 97.18% availability rate. I'll put that at 90%
- Ovechkin will maintain a GPG over 0.40 during the next 5 seasons. I'll put that, hmmmm, let's be optimistic and say it is 50% (5 years is a long ass time, especially at 36)
- The NHL won't sustain a "schedule-altering" event during those 5 seasons. Unless COVID goes longer, 99%.

0.8*0.9*0.5*0.99 = 0.3564

35.64% to beat the record if he plays 5 more injury-free seasons at around 0.40GPG.

I mean, it is more likely than I thought it would be when I started my post, but still difficult. One would have to do a complete probability tree using these parameters to see if there is a more probable outcome where he beats the record, but I'd be surprised.

Like, for example:

- He plays 3 more seasons. I'd give that 100%.
- He maintains his 97.18% availability rate during those 3 years. I'd put that at like 95%
- He scores over 0.65 GPG during those 3 years, that's 0.04 over his career average. I'd give that... 5%... max and that's being generous.
- I'll keep the NHL availability probability at 99%

1*0.95*0.05*0.99 = 0.047

4.7% to beat the record in 3 seasons.

I won't do 4 seasons, but I'd guess it would be pretty low. Around 15% or so. Unless you think he can score at around 0.5GPG (40 goals pace) for 4 more seasons.

There is a part of subjectivity in my analysis, but the parameters are there. Feel free to play with them. I'd say 35.64% chance is a GOOD chance he does it. It is not LIKELY, but he has a very legitimate shot.

 

[PaulD]

Exactly, I am not sure why anyone would bring raw total goals on a message board dedicated to hockey, elevate the arguments-debate over such ridicule simple stance.

Like I said. Gretz wins in all categories. At Lighting the lamp he is the goat.

 

[MadLuke]

Like I said. Gretz wins in all categories. At Lighting the lamp he is the goat.

Not clearly in goal scoring longevity to some, like Ovechkin.

An other category, leading the NHL in goal during a season:

Ovechkin: 9
Hull: 7 (despite leading a different league later in is career)
Esposito: 6
Conacher: 5
Gretzky: 5
Howe: 5
Richard: 5

career goal by games (player with 700 games or more):
Bossy: .76
Lemieux: .75
Bure: .62
Ovechkin: .61
Gretzky: .60
Brett Hull: .58
Bobby Hull: /57
Esposito: .56
Richard: .56

playoff goal by games (at least 100 games):
Lemieux: .71
Bossy: .66
Richard: .62
Gretzky: .59
Kurri: .53
Bobby Hull: .52


Ovechkin, Lemieux, Hull, Richard are all in the conversation with Gretzky for best goal scorer of all time, because they do have some instance of arguably winning over 99 in term of goal scoring (and in some instance not arguably winning over him being factual).

If you take Gretzky 12 best year's vs Ovechkin 12 and compare what they did to the next best 9 scorer, the number of standard deviation for Ovechkin over that group average is probably quite close to Gretzky, if not superior.

 

[TeeTee]

True. Let's look at different events and their likelihood. Let's set some parameters first.

- Ovechkin has 8 goals in 20 games this year (0.4 GPG. His career GPG is 0.61)
- The Capitals have played 24 games out of 56. They have 32 left to play.
- Let's consider that Ovechkin will play all remaining games and scores at 0.55 GPG: 17.6 goals, let's give him 18 (rounding up) - I am being generous here, but it is not that unlikely
- That means he would finish the year at 732 goals
- He would enter 2021-2022 162 goals behind Gretzky
- He will be 36 years old by the time the season starts


Now, let's look at some scenarios:

- He plays 3 more seasons, retiring at 38. To beat the record, he would need to score 54 goals per season (0.65 GPG over 82 games)
- He plays 4 more seasons, retiring at 39. To beat the record, he would need to score 40.5 goals per season (0.49 GPG over 82 games)
- He plays 5 more seasons, retiring at 40. To beat the record, he would need to score 32.2 goals per season (0.39 GPG over 82 games)
- He plays 6 more seasons, retiring at 41. To beat the record, he would need to score 27 goals per season (0.33 GPG over 82 games)
- He plays 7 mores seasons, retiring at 42. To beat the record, he would need to score 23.14 goals per season (0.28 GPG over 82 games)

We have determined the productivity over 82 games and the longevity he would need. Now, let's look at availability:

- Ovechkin has played 1172 games in the NHL. We have him the last 32, that would put him at 1204 at the end of the year. 1204 out of a possible 1239, for an INCREDIBLE availability rate of 97.18% (0.9718). He misses an average of 2 games per year which is negligible. Anything can happen, but we have a 16 years sample size proving that Ovechkin is durable.

Last parameter I would like to look at... NHL "availability":

- Ovechkin has gone through 2 work stoppages and a pandemic that affected 2 seasons and COULD (unlikely) affect a 3rd.
- Is another work stoppage possible? Next one would be for 2026-27. 5 full seasons remaining before this is a possibility. Ovechkin could have beaten the record by then.
- Could COVID continue? Is another pandemic likely? Could a war stop the NHL for a while? I mean, the probability of an outside event affecting the NHL to a degree that would mean stop playing is less than 1%. It happened like twice in the league history. Even WW2 did not affect games being played.

I mean, I won't build a probability tree and go into 100 scenarios, but if we keep it rather simple and go with the most likely scenario, IMO: Ovechkin retires at 40.

- Ovechkin will play 5 more seasons. I'll put that at 80%.
- Ovechkin will maintain his 97.18% availability rate. I'll put that at 90%
- Ovechkin will maintain a GPG over 0.40 during the next 5 seasons. I'll put that, hmmmm, let's be optimistic and say it is 50% (5 years is a long ass time, especially at 36)
- The NHL won't sustain a "schedule-altering" event during those 5 seasons. Unless COVID goes longer, 99%.

0.8*0.9*0.5*0.99 = 0.3564

35.64% to beat the record if he plays 5 more injury-free seasons at around 0.40GPG.

I mean, it is more likely than I thought it would be when I started my post, but still difficult. One would have to do a complete probability tree using these parameters to see if there is a more probable outcome where he beats the record, but I'd be surprised.

Like, for example:

- He plays 3 more seasons. I'd give that 100%.
- He maintains his 97.18% availability rate during those 3 years. I'd put that at like 95%
- He scores over 0.65 GPG during those 3 years, that's 0.04 over his career average. I'd give that... 5%... max and that's being generous.
- I'll keep the NHL availability probability at 99%

1*0.95*0.05*0.99 = 0.047

4.7% to beat the record in 3 seasons.

I won't do 4 seasons, but I'd guess it would be pretty low. Around 15% or so. Unless you think he can score at around 0.5GPG (40 goals pace) for 4 more seasons.

There is a part of subjectivity in my analysis, but the parameters are there. Feel free to play with them. I'd say 35.64% chance is a GOOD chance he does it. It is not LIKELY, but he has a very legitimate shot.

This assumes the same amount of ice time. I find this to be unlikely.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

This assumes the same amount of ice time. I find this to be unlikely.

I may have forgotten many parameters. I was trying to keep it as simple as possible.

I guess decreasing ice-time would reduce the likelihood of maintaining of GPG higher than 0.45.

 

[Mr. Fancy Pants]

This assumes the same amount of ice time. I find this to be unlikely.

Ovechkin could remain a PP specialist. Maybe he plays 3rd or 4th line but is on one of the PP units. Over the last 4 full seasons, he's scored between 17-19 goals on the PP. If Ovechkin wants to keep playing, I can see a team using him like this.

 

[PaulD]

Not clearly in goal scoring longevity to some, like Ovechkin.

An other category, leading the NHL in goal during a season:


Ovechkin: 9
Hull: 7 (despite leading a different league later in is career)
Esposito: 6
Conacher: 5
Gretzky: 5
Howe: 5
Richard: 5

career goal by games (player with 700 games or more):
Bossy: .76
Lemieux: .75
Bure: .62
Ovechkin: .61
Gretzky: .60
Brett Hull: .58
Bobby Hull: /57
Esposito: .56
Richard: .56

playoff goal by games (at least 100 games):
Lemieux: .71
Bossy: .66
Richard: .62
Gretzky: .59
Kurri: .53
Bobby Hull: .52


Ovechkin, Lemieux, Hull, Richard are all in the conversation with Gretzky for best goal scorer of all time, because they do have some instance of arguably winning over 99 in term of goal scoring (and in some instance not arguably winning over him being factual).

If you take Gretzky 12 best year's vs Ovechkin 12 and compare what they did to the next best 9 scorer, the number of standard deviation for Ovechkin over that group average is probably quite close to Gretzky, if not superior.

Yep. Its definitely debatable.
Make a case for several guys.
My picks in order. Lighting the Lamp
1.Gretzky
2.Mario
3.Bossy
4.OV
5.B.Hull

 

[BadgerBruce]

Some posters — not all, but more than a handful — do not seem fully aware of just how harsh the NHL is on 35+ year-olds.

Here’s a quick illustration.

OV is a 1985 birth year.

Excluding goalies, there are:

17 1985-born skaters.
8 1984-born skaters.
3 1983-born skaters (Keith, Giordano, Spezza).
1 1982 born skater (Andy Greene)
0 1981 born skaters
0 1980 born skaters
2 1979 born skaters (Marleau, Thornton)
0 1978 born skaters
1 1977 born skater (Chara)

Here’s one way to look at it: there are more 1985 birth year skaters (17) then all the other older birth years combined (15).

Not only is OV expected to beat these odds, but he’s also supposed to score 175 goals?

It’s not impossible. When Gordie Howe finished his 20th season, he was 38 and had played more games than anyone in history. Who knew he’d still be potting 15 goals as a 52 year-old?

So, there are always exceptions. Maybe OV will be one. To catch Gretzky, he’ll need to be.

 

[Beukeboom]

True. Let's look at different events and their likelihood. Let's set some parameters first.

- Ovechkin has 8 goals in 20 games this year (0.4 GPG. His career GPG is 0.61)
- The Capitals have played 24 games out of 56. They have 32 left to play.
- Let's consider that Ovechkin will play all remaining games and scores at 0.55 GPG: 17.6 goals, let's give him 18 (rounding up) - I am being generous here, but it is not that unlikely
- That means he would finish the year at 732 goals
- He would enter 2021-2022 162 goals behind Gretzky
- He will be 36 years old by the time the season starts


Now, let's look at some scenarios:

- He plays 3 more seasons, retiring at 38. To beat the record, he would need to score 54 goals per season (0.65 GPG over 82 games)
- He plays 4 more seasons, retiring at 39. To beat the record, he would need to score 40.5 goals per season (0.49 GPG over 82 games)
- He plays 5 more seasons, retiring at 40. To beat the record, he would need to score 32.2 goals per season (0.39 GPG over 82 games)
- He plays 6 more seasons, retiring at 41. To beat the record, he would need to score 27 goals per season (0.33 GPG over 82 games)
- He plays 7 mores seasons, retiring at 42. To beat the record, he would need to score 23.14 goals per season (0.28 GPG over 82 games)

We have determined the productivity over 82 games and the longevity he would need. Now, let's look at availability:

- Ovechkin has played 1172 games in the NHL. We have him the last 32, that would put him at 1204 at the end of the year. 1204 out of a possible 1239, for an INCREDIBLE availability rate of 97.18% (0.9718). He misses an average of 2 games per year which is negligible. Anything can happen, but we have a 16 years sample size proving that Ovechkin is durable.

Last parameter I would like to look at... NHL "availability":

- Ovechkin has gone through 2 work stoppages and a pandemic that affected 2 seasons and COULD (unlikely) affect a 3rd.
- Is another work stoppage possible? Next one would be for 2026-27. 5 full seasons remaining before this is a possibility. Ovechkin could have beaten the record by then.
- Could COVID continue? Is another pandemic likely? Could a war stop the NHL for a while? I mean, the probability of an outside event affecting the NHL to a degree that would mean stop playing is less than 1%. It happened like twice in the league history. Even WW2 did not affect games being played.

I mean, I won't build a probability tree and go into 100 scenarios, but if we keep it rather simple and go with the most likely scenario, IMO: Ovechkin retires at 40.

- Ovechkin will play 5 more seasons. I'll put that at 80%.
- Ovechkin will maintain his 97.18% availability rate. I'll put that at 90%
- Ovechkin will maintain a GPG over 0.40 during the next 5 seasons. I'll put that, hmmmm, let's be optimistic and say it is 50% (5 years is a long ass time, especially at 36)
- The NHL won't sustain a "schedule-altering" event during those 5 seasons. Unless COVID goes longer, 99%.

0.8*0.9*0.5*0.99 = 0.3564

35.64% to beat the record if he plays 5 more injury-free seasons at around 0.40GPG.

I mean, it is more likely than I thought it would be when I started my post, but still difficult. One would have to do a complete probability tree using these parameters to see if there is a more probable outcome where he beats the record, but I'd be surprised.

Like, for example:

- He plays 3 more seasons. I'd give that 100%.
- He maintains his 97.18% availability rate during those 3 years. I'd put that at like 95%
- He scores over 0.65 GPG during those 3 years, that's 0.04 over his career average. I'd give that... 5%... max and that's being generous.
- I'll keep the NHL availability probability at 99%

1*0.95*0.05*0.99 = 0.047

4.7% to beat the record in 3 seasons.

I won't do 4 seasons, but I'd guess it would be pretty low. Around 15% or so. Unless you think he can score at around 0.5GPG (40 goals pace) for 4 more seasons.

There is a part of subjectivity in my analysis, but the parameters are there. Feel free to play with them. I'd say 35.64% chance is a GOOD chance he does it. It is not LIKELY, but he has a very legitimate shot.

Good post. My gut-feeling tells me to subtract 10-15% from your number. It's not unlikely age will decline his availability rate. It might also decrease ice time. Furthermore, your model fails to account for team surroundings. The Capitals core is ageing. Being a top team in the NHL helps gpg and with his prime centerman being 34, things might get worse. Finally I think Ovie really wants to get a shot at the Olympics. either next season or in five years. If NHL doesn't allow participation in 22, I deem it likely Ovie's NHL career ends in four seasons.

 

[Mulletman]

Some posters — not all, but more than a handful — do not seem fully aware of just how harsh the NHL is on 35+ year-olds.

Here’s a quick illustration.

OV is a 1985 birth year.

Excluding goalies, there are:

17 1985-born skaters.
8 1984-born skaters.
3 1983-born skaters (Keith, Giordano, Spezza).
1 1982 born skater (Andy Greene)
0 1981 born skaters
0 1980 born skaters
2 1979 born skaters (Marleau, Thornton)
0 1978 born skaters
1 1977 born skater (Chara)

Here’s one way to look at it: there are more 1985 birth year skaters (17) then all the other older birth years combined (15).

Not only is OV expected to beat these odds, but he’s also supposed to score 175 goals?

It’s not impossible. When Gordie Howe finished his 20th season, he was 38 and had played more games than anyone in history. Who knew he’d still be potting 15 goals as a 52 year-old?

So, there are always exceptions. Maybe OV will be one. To catch Gretzky, he’ll need to be.

Yeah but you need to remember that it's only the very best that last the longest too. 1980 and 1981 had some of the worst talents in hockey history and it's not surprising there isn't anybody left in the NHL from those years. And the last 5 years of the 70s was also pretty terrible except for Thornton and a few others.

A better way to compare Ovechkin is to compare him to guys like Jagr and Selanne who were the top guys from a very talented group of late 60s and early 70s born players. They lasted the longest because they were able to keep their elite level the longest as well. Jagr even holds the record for most points for a 40+ year old player and Selanne is 3rd all time amongst 40+ year old players behind Jagr and Howe.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Good post. My gut-feeling tells me to subtract 10-15% from your number. It's not unlikely age will decline his availability rate. It might also decrease ice time. Furthermore, your model fails to account for team surroundings. The Capitals core is ageing. Being a top team in the NHL helps gpg and with his prime centerman being 34, things might get worse. Finally I think Ovie really wants to get a shot at the Olympics. either next season or in five years. If NHL doesn't allow participation in 22, I deem it likely Ovie's NHL career ends in four seasons.

To account for that, you would have to lower his chances of maintaining his GPG over 0.40GPG for four years.

I had it at 50%. I'll put it at 35% and keep the rest of the parameters the same:

0.8*0.9*0.35*0.99 = 0.2494

Puts us at 24.94%

Still unlikely, but still doable. Maybe 35% is too generous. Maybe he will get injured. Still 75% chances he does not make it according to a generous model.

As I said, doable, but very difficult. He has a uphill battle.