What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?

[snag]

Ovie has already said that he will retire first before being a joke on the ice.

That's what I am talking about. I mean, if he hangs on for a few years popping 5-10 goals a year merely to catch a number....

But if he is putting up 20+ goals a year, why not.?

 

[AZ Caps Fan]

Very little to none. Maybe he passes Howe, but even that's a stretch.

 

[george14]

Selanne put up 232 goals after his 35 birthday. Ovechkin is a better goal scorer and less injury prone.

That doesn't mean he will do what Selanne did, though.

As of this post today, Selanne has a higher GPG at age 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, and 40 than Ovechkin does at age 35.

Make what you will of that.

 

[snag]

That doesn't mean he will do what Selanne did, though.

As of this post today, Selanne has a higher GPG at age 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, and 40 than Ovechkin does at age 35.

Make what you will of that.

 

[CartographerNo611]

Zero chance.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

Zero chance.

He's heating up again. 3 goals last 4 games. 178 away. It's probably a 60% chance.

 

[ItWasJustified]

He's heating up again. 3 goals last 4 games. 178 away. It's probably a 60% chance.

My guess is that you don't work in bookmaking.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

My guess is that you don't work in bookmaking.

You would be right. Do you disagree?

 

[ItWasJustified]

You would be right. Do you disagree?

Yes. Unless Ovie plays until his mid-to-late 40's, there's maybe 2-3% chance.

 

[CapsGr8]

Yes. Unless Ovie plays until his mid-to-late 40's, there's maybe 2-3% chance.

He'd need to average 30 goals for the next 6 years to break the record. I think it's definitely more than 2-3%. I'd put it somewhere around 45%. Especially if he plays more than 6 years.

 

[CartographerNo611]

He'd need to average 30 goals for the next 6 years to break the record. I think it's definitely more than 2-3%. I'd put it somewhere around 45%. Especially if he plays more than 6 years.

That would require Backstrom and Carlsson to remain elite to draw defenders away while an already declining 35 year old Ovie stands in his office waiting for 1 timers. It’s very rare for just one star player to remain elite in their late 30s on a team let alone 3 at the same time.

Zero chance Ovie catches Gretzky unless he goes to another team that’s stacked or nets triple in size. Then it’s maybe 1 percent likely.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

That would require Backstrom and Carlsson to remain elite to draw defenders away while an already declining 35 year old Ovie stands in his office waiting for 1 timers. It’s very rare for just one star player to remain elite in their late 30s on a team let alone 3 at the same time.

Zero chance Ovie catches Gretzky unless he goes to another team that’s stacked or nets triple in size. Then it’s maybe 1 percent likely.

Backstrom is aging well. His game isn’t built around speed so he’ll be good for quite a few more years.

The Caps also have some good Centre prospects coming up.

Also, the “Ovie can only score goals from one spot” accusation died years ago.

Thanks for playing, though.

 

[CapsGr8]

That would require Backstrom and Carlsson to remain elite to draw defenders away while an already declining 35 year old Ovie stands in his office waiting for 1 timers. It’s very rare for just one star player to remain elite in their late 30s on a team let alone 3 at the same time.

Zero chance Ovie catches Gretzky unless he goes to another team that’s stacked or nets triple in size. Then it’s maybe 1 percent likely.

10 goals in 23 games, and you call it declining. Go figure.

In a season with 82 games he'd be on pace for 35 goals. Keep in mind, he went through COVID "suspension" and is still adapting to a new system. 3 goals in 4 games...he just needs a few more games under his belt.

 

[ItWasJustified]

He'd need to average 30 goals for the next 6 years to break the record. I think it's definitely more than 2-3%. I'd put it somewhere around 45%. Especially if he plays more than 6 years.

Though he's exceptionally durable, he has to stay free of injuries and keep up his goalscoring pace until his early 40's. How man players have scored over 30 goals in their 40's? Not that Ovie can't be the exception, but it will be extremely difficult.

 

[Midnight Judges]

His shot looked way off for a long stretch there. Past few games it looks like his normal self again.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

Probably was dinged up a bit and played through it.

People have been writing Ovie off for 10 years now. Sooner or later, people will learn not to bet against him.

He could easily have a 20 goals in 20 games bender.

 

[Refuse]

Though he's exceptionally durable, he has to stay free of injuries and keep up his goalscoring pace until his early 40's. How man players have scored over 30 goals in their 40's? Not that Ovie can't be the exception, but it will be extremely difficult.

Why are you comparing arguably the greatest goalscorer of all time with "many" players?

 

[PuckThumper11]

I think he has a chance but it's getting slimmer all the time. One thing I'm wondering about is how so many on here calls him the greatest goal-scorer of all-time. Isn't Gretzky the greatest if Ovi does not beat his record? Both are phenomenal of course, but whoever has the most is the greatest. Right? Or is it consensus that Ovi's era is tougher and he had shorter seasons and without that, he'd definitely beat Wayne's record? Just wondering...

 

[CartographerNo611]

Why are you comparing arguably the greatest goalscorer of all time with "many" players?

Because the greatest goal scorer is Gretzky, you know... just the current record holder for goals scored... no big deal.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

Why are you comparing arguably the greatest goalscorer of all time with "many" players?

Because there are no others to compare him too? Gretzky declined in goal scoring after 30 and was a shell at 38.

 

[ItWasJustified]

Why are you comparing arguably the greatest goalscorer of all time with "many" players?

Even arguably the greatest goalscorer of all time ages and may or may not have sufficient talent around him.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

I think he has a chance but it's getting slimmer all the time. One thing I'm wondering about is how so many on here calls him the greatest goal-scorer of all-time. Isn't Gretzky the greatest if Ovi does not beat his record? Both are phenomenal of course, but whoever has the most is the greatest. Right? Or is it consensus that Ovi's era is tougher and he had shorter seasons and without that, he'd definitely beat Wayne's record? Just wondering...

The idea is that Ovechkin is already arguably the best ever, considering he played in a lower scoring era and he has 5-6 years left to get to 895.

Him beating Wayne’s record completely closes the debate, that’s why it’s so important.

 

[Demandedace]

That would require Backstrom and Carlsson to remain elite to draw defenders away while an already declining 35 year old Ovie stands in his office waiting for 1 timers. It’s very rare for just one star player to remain elite in their late 30s on a team let alone 3 at the same time.

Zero chance Ovie catches Gretzky unless he goes to another team that’s stacked or nets triple in size. Then it’s maybe 1 percent likely.

You can always spot someone who has no idea what they are talking about with regard to ovechkin and the caps lol

 

[Stealth1616]

Over has always been my favourite player but I just don’t see it. Maybe without lockouts/covid he would but just seems too hard at the moment. Think if he’s hits 800+ that’ll be a real milestone

 

[CashMash]

With the pace he's been going at, I thought he would get it at a high chance even after the last lockout and the one in -05...
Then, two covid-shortened seasons happened.

Damned shame. He's not getting any younger, but we'll see. I already think of him as the best in terms of goalscoring ability, but there are still players above him when other stuff is factored in.