What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?

[AD1066]

Ovechkin in his prime was bigger, faster, stronger on the puck and could score in more ways than Bossy ever could. People have this conception that Ovi couldn't stick handle end to end and score in every way possible for 6 years. That's your choice but I'm definitely taking Ovechkin here.

Gretzky also dominated Bossy in goals while their careers overlapped. Bossy's reputation to some extent benefits from playing his entire prime in the highest scoring era in league history, and then retiring before his abilities and GP/G average naturally declined. I feel that it both cheated him out of some impressive career totals but also inflated the perception of his raw ability. He was incredibly consistent but probably closer to a consistent 40 goal scorer today who eclipses 50 a handful of times.

The image below should speak volumes about the relatively difficulty of hitting 50 goals in different eras.

Lemieux for my money is the best pure scorer (and most era-proof) of all-time.

 

[MM425]

Let's assume OV was/is good for:

- 40 goals in his lost 04-05 rookie season (Not a stretch considering he got 52 a year later)
- 22 more goals in the shortened 2012-2013 season to end up with 54
- 10 more in the shortened 2019-2020 season to end up with 58
- 10 more this year, ending up with 22 in another shortened season.

He'd be sitting at 800 goals at the end of this season. It depends on how much longer he wants to play but under this scenario you would have to like his chances.

Now, I think he's chasing Gordie's 801 number more than anything. It will probably go down as one of the great "whaf if" discussions in hockey lore.

 

[Kcoyote3]

He’ll be fine, he’ll be catch him

 

[Paperbagofglory]

Play high tempo till 44. Score at least 20 goals a season that will bring him up to about 886.

After that, a nice and steady pace and play till 51 and score 15 goals a season at 45 years of age till 51 that will bring him up to 976. Then from 51 till 54 take it easy and get 8 goals a year. That will bring you up till 1000. So so close, you can do it Ovie! Sports science is getting better, just pump your body full of vitamins.

I honestly believe Alex will be stuck on 1000. If he gets there though, playing through a mostly lower scoring era, there is no debate who the greatest goal scorer is.

Its Mike Bossy.

 

[bossram]

Let's assume OV was/is good for:

- 40 goals in his lost 04-05 rookie season (Not a stretch considering he got 52 a year later)
- 22 more goals in the shortened 2012-2013 season to end up with 54
- 10 more in the shortened 2019-2020 season to end up with 58
- 10 more this year, ending up with 22 in another shortened season.

He'd be sitting at 800 goals at the end of this season. It depends on how much longer he wants to play but under this scenario you would have to like his chances.

Now, I think he's chasing Gordie's 801 number more than anything. It will probably go down as one of the great "whaf if" discussions in hockey lore.

Yep. It's really unfortunate OV lost out on so many games, otherwise he'd have a real shot at getting past Gretzky.

In terms of era-adjusted scoring though, I think it's clear OV is the best ever.

 

[binop7]

Play high tempo till 44. Score at least 20 goals a season that will bring him up to about 886.

After that, a nice and steady pace and play till 51 and score 15 goals a season at 45 years of age till 51 that will bring him up to 976. Then from 51 till 54 take it easy and get 8 goals a year. That will bring you up till 1000. So so close, you can do it Ovie! Sports science is getting better, just pump your body full of vitamins.

I honestly believe Alex will be stuck on 1000. If he gets there though, playing through a mostly lower scoring era, there is no debate who the greatest goal scorer is.

Its Mike Bossy.

Leave it to an Oilers fan to make a fool of themselves. OV is a better goal scorer than anyone not named Gretzky or Lemieux. Longevity I put him over Mario, and there's the argument to be made that he's better than Gretz as well.

 

[Paperbagofglory]

Leave it to an Oilers fan to make a fool of themselves. OV is a better goal scorer than anyone not named Gretzky or Lemieux. Longevity I put him over Mario, and there's the argument to be made that he's better than Gretz as well.

I was being sarcastic with the Mike Bossy reference obviously. Its clear i started that Ovechkin is one of if not the greatest goal scorer even if hes not the greatest hockey player. This is a concession most haters can make.

Have you ever heard the term stones in glass houses?

Leave it to a leaf fan to not understand the quality of a player they are talking about considering the lack of legendary players on their own franchise.

 

[Mulletman]

I think it will come down to his willingness to play reduced minutes as mostly a PP specialist for a season or two at the very end.

If he can maintain a certain level of fitness and be a ~20 goal guy twice at ages 40 and 41, for example, those extra 40 goals would ease the burden of what he needs to accomplish over the next 3-4 seasons.

Yeah this is pretty much it. 177 goals to go. If Ovechkin cools down again this season it will be about 170 goals when the season ends, if he stays hot it could be around 160 goals to go. 2-3 more mediocre years at the end of his career will make it much easier to break Gretzky's record. Jagr for example had 44 goals during his last 3 seasons and Selanne had 47 goals. If Ovechkin can do something similar between 40 and 42 he'll be left with about 115-125 goals that he would need to score during 4 years between 36 and 39. If Ovechkin wants this record there's nothing that can stop him except the apocalypse stopping hockey for good.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

Players shouldn't be subjected solely on beating stats and records. If that's the case we are never getting better player. Context, players relative to there peers, rule changes all these things matter.

 

[binop7]

I was being sarcastic with the Mike Bossy reference obviously. Its clear i started that Ovechkin is one of if not the greatest goal scorer even if hes not the greatest hockey player. This is a concession most haters can make.

Have you ever heard the term stones in glass houses?

Leave it to a leaf fan to not understand the quality of a player they are talking about considering the lack of legendary players on their own franchise.

That was a good dig. I hope Matthews can enter these convos one day. All jokes aside. Mike Bossy was a great player, but he's not close to Ovechkin

 

[GrizzGreen]

Ovechkin is one of if not the greatest goal scorer even if hes not the greatest hockey player. This is a concession most haters can make.

I think it's pretty tough to say he's not the best goal scorer given his comparison to other players in the same era. 718 vs. Marleau's (2nd among active players) 563 in 572 less games and dwarfs Sid/Geno/Kane, all in the 400s.

Gretzky was obviously the all around best offensive player (leaves room for your Howe is the best all around player arguments) by far and you can argue he didn't focus on scoring goals, especially in his later years, but Ovechkin has been consistently lethal in a time where goal tending is at its peak.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

Gretzky also dominated Bossy in goals while their careers overlapped. Bossy's reputation to some extent benefits from playing his entire prime in the highest scoring era in league history, and then retiring before his abilities and GP/G average naturally declined. I feel that it both cheated him out of some impressive career totals but also inflated the perception of his raw ability. He was incredibly consistent but probably closer to a consistent 40 goal scorer today who eclipses 50 a handful of times.

The image below should speak volumes about the relatively difficulty of hitting 50 goals in different eras.

View attachment 408805

Lemieux for my money is the best pure scorer (and most era-proof) of all-time.

Ovi would score 100 goals a year against this and it wouldn't matter what stick/skates he was using, I'm not being hyperbolic.

 

[Hi ImHFNYR]

Leave it to an Oilers fan to make a fool of themselves. OV is a better goal scorer than anyone not named Gretzky or Lemieux. Longevity I put him over Mario, and there's the argument to be made that he's better than Gretz as well.

Lollolololol he was OBVIOUSLY joking and you come out with "leave it to edm to be a fool"

 

[43sfriends]

The only similarity between Gretzky and Ovechkin is they both scored a lot of goals. Gretzky scored a lot of goals early in his career because frankly, the league was wide open for him. If you compare Gretzky's and Ovechkin's scoring you'll see that Ovechkin at 32+ is scoring at a higher clip than Gretzky did age 25+ which is why we're having this discussion in the first place.

Chart says it all. He doesn't show any sign of slowing down. He will break the record barring freak injury or further public health crises.

Regardless of his total, he is the best goal scorer ever. The delusional haters in this thread are f***ing hilarious.

 

[libertarian]

No one is catching Gretzky. This does not mean OV has not been a great player but no one will beat Gretzky's career points and goal production. Anyone talking about this possibility with OV at his current age are blowing smoke out of their a**.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

No one is catching Gretzky. This does not mean OV has not been a great player but no one will beat Gretzky's career points and goal production. Anyone talking about this possibility with OV at his current age are blowing smoke out of their a**.

He's only 176 behind.

 

[libertarian]

He's only 176 behind.

LOL! Only??

He is 35 years old so he will need to score at a 50+ per year clip to age 39 to over take Gretzky.

Is this possible? Maybe.

Is it likely? No.

 

[HF007]

OV will catch him if he wants to keep playing

 

[Paperbagofglory]

OV will catch him if he wants to keep playing

Yeah its not like father time, nature, genetics, and injuries catches up to you or anything. If he decides those things are make believe then he can will himself to break the record.

 

[HF007]

Yeah its not like father time, nature, genetics, and injuries catches up to you or anything. If he decides those things are make believe then he can will himself to break the record.

Russian machine never breaks, esp with the game getting softer now.

His shot and positioning are too elite, I don't see him ever scoring less than 30 in a full healthy season no matter how old he gets ala Brett Hull.

If he ends the year at 731 (5th all time) he would need to average 33 goals for 5 seasons. I still see a couple 40 goal seasons in him (atleast, maybe even 45), requiring even less than 33 for the backend seasons.

 

[DannyGallivan]

An interrupted season in 2020 which wasn't a big deal but cost him 10-12 games and then a shortened year for the 2nd time in his career - at 56 games.

One thing to consider, Ovie is 35, will be 36 in September. 7 goals in 19 games is not very Ovechkin-like and he's not looked like himself this year. Granted, a lot of players his age are "losing it". Crosby, Malkin come to mind also as not playing the best hockey this year. Part of it could be age, and we saw similar things like this after 2004 and 2012 lockouts where a player in his 30s quite often just can't afford to have this much time taken off at this age and get back to his past play. He is at the 2017 level where he had 33 goals in 82 games, before ringing off Rocket Richard trophies the last three years. You never want to count him out, or say that perhaps his goal scoring is drying up (to his standards) but he hasn't looked the same this year.

9.6% shot percentage, the lowest in his career since 2011. 79 shots on net, good for a surprising 15th in the NHL. Coming from a guy who led the NHL in shots 11 times.

Basically to do the math here we have to look at it like this. Let's say he gets 20 goals this year. Or we'll give him 25 to be generous. 25 goals at the end of this year puts him at 731. He'll pass Phil Esposito this year for 6th all-time, but 731 ties him with Marcel Dionne for 5th.

So at 36 years old, 16 seasons in he'll have 731, let's say, heading into 2021-'22. He'll need:

163 goals to tie Gretzky.

So 4 more seasons of 41 goals in order to beat him. That gives him 895. That is factoring in that he could want to play in the KHL at the end of his career and I assume if Ovechkin isn't an elite goal scorer that he won't hang around the NHL with 25-30 goal seasons to end his career. That just isn't him. That's my guess.

So I think this season has put him further back and I think it has decreased his chances.

He won't catch Gretzky. No way.

 

[Northerner]

I think he has a good chance. And I hate that. I don't want anyone to ever beat Gretz' goal record. Partly because I think a Canadian should own it, and partly because I got Gretz to sign my Kings jersey which I still own (lol).

 

[Paperbagofglory]

I think he has a good chance. And I hate that. I don't want anyone to ever beat Gretz' goal record. Partly because I think a Canadian should own it, and partly because I got Gretz to sign my Kings jersey which I still own (lol).

I have an authentic Kurri jersey, signed by Gretzky.

 

[TrufleShufle]

I think he's actually got a pretty good chance to catch him if he scores enough goals.

 

[Vukotal Recall]

People are overlooking how integral Backstrom has been to Ovechkin's consistent success. If he retires for any reason, that will have a big impact.