What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?

[AD1066]

LOL! Only??

He is 35 years old so he will need to score at a 50+ per year clip to age 39 to over take Gretzky.

Is this possible? Maybe.

Is it likely? No.

Yes but there's no hard rule forcing him into retirement at age 39.

The odds aren't in his favor, but if he is intent on breaking the record, seasons of 40, 35, 30, 30, 20, 20 (total 175) would get him to 893. Find an extra two goals in there somewhere, and that's enough. It would take an intense dedication to fitness and willingness to stick around as a PP specialist for his last two years or so, but the fact that he has an outside chance in an era with 30-40% lower scoring than Gretzky's heyday is in and of itself, absurd.

 

[pezpunk]

LOL! Only??

He is 35 years old so he will need to score at a 50+ per year clip to age 39 to over take Gretzky.

Is this possible? Maybe.

Is it likely? No.

haha you went from "nobody's catching him" to "maybe Ovechkin will catch him" in the span of two posts.

 

[libertarian]

haha you went from "nobody's catching him" to "maybe Ovechkin will catch him" in the span of two posts.

Your right, you caught me. I'm guilty of changing my mind that if any player can produce at a elite level in his late 30's it is OV no matter how unlikely that is.
I would put the odd of OV staying healthy and being able to play at 50 goal per year level in his late 30's at less then 1% yet not impossible.

BTW I'd very happy to be proven wrong.

 

[Crabapple]

Very low, unfortunately. I think he would've without stoppages however, such a shame. Greatest goal scorer of all time.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

People are overlooking how integral Backstrom has been to Ovechkin's consistent success. If he retires for any reason, that will have a big impact.

Ovechkin has proven in the past that he can be successful without Backstrom anchoring and can carry any line he's on. Not that Backstrom isn't a fantastic 1C but he's not the reason Ovechkin has 718 goals.

 

[Big Phil]

Very low, unfortunately. I think he would've without stoppages however, such a shame. Greatest goal scorer of all time.

It is worth noting that everyone has faced some sort of interruption or injury. Gretzky missing half a season in 1993, then a lockout shortened year in 1995. Plus the Suter hit from the 1991 Canada Cup probably took some goals away. We can go all day, but we have to remember that we can find a reason as to why lots of stars didn't do more. Bobby Hull comes to mind. He had a 50 goal season in 1972 then at 33 is in the WHA pretty much the rest of the time. Good chance he cracks 900 if he stays in the NHL.

 

[CashMash]

It is worth noting that everyone has faced some sort of interruption or injury. Gretzky missing half a season in 1993, then a lockout shortened year in 1995. Plus the Suter hit from the 1991 Canada Cup probably took some goals away. We can go all day, but we have to remember that we can find a reason as to why lots of stars didn't do more. Bobby Hull comes to mind. He had a 50 goal season in 1972 then at 33 is in the WHA pretty much the rest of the time. Good chance he cracks 900 if he stays in the NHL.

I think injuries aren't the same, conceptually, as lockouts and such since that has to do with durability versus something that isn't a trait the player has but something that happens to the league.

 

[tenken00]

By Age:



Career Goals:

 

[filinski77]

I think injuries aren't the same, conceptually, as lockouts and such since that has to do with durability versus something that isn't a trait the player has but something that happens to the league.

100%. Certain players could take the exact same hit or situation that one guy got injured in, and they wouldn’t get injured themselves.

No one can control lockouts. Plus Ovechkin never had the massive advantage of playing in the highest scoring era ever.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

It is worth noting that everyone has faced some sort of interruption or injury. Gretzky missing half a season in 1993, then a lockout shortened year in 1995. Plus the Suter hit from the 1991 Canada Cup probably took some goals away. We can go all day, but we have to remember that we can find a reason as to why lots of stars didn't do more. Bobby Hull comes to mind. He had a 50 goal season in 1972 then at 33 is in the WHA pretty much the rest of the time. Good chance he cracks 900 if he stays in the NHL.

Had Gretzky stayed healthy his goal number would be so obsured that we wouldn't be having this convo. Testament to Ovi that he has stayed healthy.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

Had Gretzky stayed healthy his goal number would be so obsured that we wouldn't be having this convo. Testament to Ovi that he has stayed healthy.

There is no doubt that Gretzky would have hit 1,000 goals and 3,000 points if he would have stayed healthy, yeah.

 

[Beukeboom]

Had Gretzky stayed healthy his goal number would be so obsured that we wouldn't be having this convo. Testament to Ovi that he has stayed healthy.

Yeah, I'm a huge Gretzky fan, but staying healthy is part of the game and nothing I'd hold against Ovie.

What I don't like is people simplifying the scenario down to "had Ovie played in the 80's and/or lockouts."

How many have pondered the amount of breakaways Wayne would have had without the redline offside? Or the fact that NHL created the Gretzky rule so he'd stop killing other teams at 4-4. And imagine him in an era where you can't slash, hook, and literally wrestle other players. He missed 24 games in his 1gpg prime due to shorter seasons. There was the lockout in 94. No 3-3 overtime. One could go one forever and speculate whether the power breaks before PPs adds a few goals per season nowadays.

The fluffiest "what if" I got about Wayne is that he had no record to chase after passing Howe. Wayne's goal scoring plummeted after catching Howe, and we know how competitive he was. It's a lot easier to chase a number than padding a record. Wayne was always a passer first and perhaps reaching Howe exacerbated this.

I think Ovie will go down as the greatest "pure" goal scorer of all time. Not due to reaching 895, but due to his dominance over his peers. However, I will say this. If I'd have to pick any player in their prime to score a goal I'd go for Wayne or Mario. And to be honest this tells us something.

 

[Jericho111091]

Went from "possible, if unlikely" to "possible but unlikely"

 

[Minar]

Gretzky also dominated Bossy in goals while their careers overlapped. Bossy's reputation to some extent benefits from playing his entire prime in the highest scoring era in league history, and then retiring before his abilities and GP/G average naturally declined. I feel that it both cheated him out of some impressive career totals but also inflated the perception of his raw ability. He was incredibly consistent but probably closer to a consistent 40 goal scorer today who eclipses 50 a handful of times.

The image below should speak volumes about the relatively difficulty of hitting 50 goals in different eras.

View attachment 408805

Lemieux for my money is the best pure scorer (and most era-proof) of all-time.

Well I see two things. There is alot more net showing than today thus making it easier to score. But number 8 is draped all over Bossy trying to obstruct him in any way possible. That would not be aloud in today's game thus making it harder to score. Comes out about even.

 

[MessierII]

None. Ain’t gonna happen.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

There is no doubt that Gretzky would have hit 1,000 goals and 3,000 points if he would have stayed healthy, yeah.

I dunno about 1000 goals, but maybe.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

Yeah, I'm a huge Gretzky fan, but staying healthy is part of the game and nothing I'd hold against Ovie.

What I don't like is people simplifying the scenario down to "had Ovie played in the 80's and/or lockouts."

How many have pondered the amount of breakaways Wayne would have had without the redline offside? Or the fact that NHL created the Gretzky rule so he'd stop killing other teams at 4-4. And imagine him in an era where you can't slash, hook, and literally wrestle other players. He missed 24 games in his 1gpg prime due to shorter seasons. There was the lockout in 94. No 3-3 overtime. One could go one forever and speculate whether the power breaks before PPs adds a few goals per season nowadays.

The fluffiest "what if" I got about Wayne is that he had no record to chase after passing Howe. Wayne's goal scoring plummeted after catching Howe, and we know how competitive he was. It's a lot easier to chase a number than padding a record. Wayne was always a passer first and perhaps reaching Howe exasperated this.

I think Ovie will go down as the greatest "pure" goal scorer of all time. Not due to reaching 895, but due to his dominance over his peers. However, I will say this. If I'd have to pick any player in their prime to score a goal I'd go for Wayne or Mario. And to be honest this tells us something.

Yeah, I agree with all you wrote.
I think once Wayne knew his shot was slower, speed was slower, back in shambles, he decided to pro long his career by being more of a passer. Until his final year he was still getting 20+ goals a season, so he was still putting the puck in the net, but he was certainly more of a playmaker. It's hard to believe a guy with that many assist had that many goals.

 

[filinski77]

Yeah, I'm a huge Gretzky fan, but staying healthy is part of the game and nothing I'd hold against Ovie.

What I don't like is people simplifying the scenario down to "had Ovie played in the 80's and/or lockouts."

How many have pondered the amount of breakaways Wayne would have had without the redline offside? Or the fact that NHL created the Gretzky rule so he'd stop killing other teams at 4-4. And imagine him in an era where you can't slash, hook, and literally wrestle other players. He missed 24 games in his 1gpg prime due to shorter seasons. There was the lockout in 94. No 3-3 overtime. One could go one forever and speculate whether the power breaks before PPs adds a few goals per season nowadays.

The fluffiest "what if" I got about Wayne is that he had no record to chase after passing Howe. Wayne's goal scoring plummeted after catching Howe, and we know how competitive he was. It's a lot easier to chase a number than padding a record. Wayne was always a passer first and perhaps reaching Howe exacerbated this.

I think Ovie will go down as the greatest "pure" goal scorer of all time. Not due to reaching 895, but due to his dominance over his peers. However, I will say this. If I'd have to pick any player in their prime to score a goal I'd go for Wayne or Mario. And to be honest this tells us something.

Regarding the bolded, you can always pick apart individual little things for both sides of the argument as far as the era arguments go.

But the reality of the situation is that when you accumulate all of those pro's and con's together, the result is that scoring was easier in Gretzky's era than it was in Ovi's era. This is not to discredit Gretzky at all, but to show how much more impressive Ovi's numbers are given the circumstances. That's why him being even in the running to break the record is truly amazing, because he did it in an era where scoring 800+ goals just isn't meant to happen.

 

[GrandmaSlices51631]

It's not out of the question. He is extremely durable. Never been sidelined with significant injury and still scoring at a 40 goal pace.

If he gets within reach, I don't think he is just going to retire if say, he has 48 more goals to go. I think once he gets close, the organization and his teammates will help him along, by putting him out there to shoot at every empty net and leave him out for entire power plays.

 

[Big Phil]

Yeah, I'm a huge Gretzky fan, but staying healthy is part of the game and nothing I'd hold against Ovie.

What I don't like is people simplifying the scenario down to "had Ovie played in the 80's and/or lockouts."

How many have pondered the amount of breakaways Wayne would have had without the redline offside? Or the fact that NHL created the Gretzky rule so he'd stop killing other teams at 4-4. And imagine him in an era where you can't slash, hook, and literally wrestle other players. He missed 24 games in his 1gpg prime due to shorter seasons. There was the lockout in 94. No 3-3 overtime. One could go one forever and speculate whether the power breaks before PPs adds a few goals per season nowadays.

The fluffiest "what if" I got about Wayne is that he had no record to chase after passing Howe. Wayne's goal scoring plummeted after catching Howe, and we know how competitive he was. It's a lot easier to chase a number than padding a record. Wayne was always a passer first and perhaps reaching Howe exacerbated this.

I think Ovie will go down as the greatest "pure" goal scorer of all time. Not due to reaching 895, but due to his dominance over his peers. However, I will say this. If I'd have to pick any player in their prime to score a goal I'd go for Wayne or Mario. And to be honest this tells us something.

If there is a goal that needs to be scored desperately and the puck is right on his stick and you need a shot on net, then yeah it is Lemieux. If there are other options like a pass then it is Gretzky.

 

[RorschachWJK]

Chance is small now...thanks COVID!

 

[JasonRoseEh]

It is worth noting that everyone has faced some sort of interruption or injury. Gretzky missing half a season in 1993, then a lockout shortened year in 1995. Plus the Suter hit from the 1991 Canada Cup probably took some goals away. We can go all day, but we have to remember that we can find a reason as to why lots of stars didn't do more. Bobby Hull comes to mind. He had a 50 goal season in 1972 then at 33 is in the WHA pretty much the rest of the time. Good chance he cracks 900 if he stays in the NHL.

Also, Gretzky's days of scoring large goal totals were long gone by his lockout years. He didn't lose 1.5 seasons of goal scoring prime to lockouts and 2 shortened seasons when he was still putting up 50 per season. It matters, but not remotely as much.

 

[Holymakinaw]

I don't think Ovie will ever catch Gretzky. I'd give him about a 2% chance at this point.

And no, he's not the "greatest goal scorer of all time". That would be Wayne Gretzky, who scored the most goals of all time.........by far.

 

[RorschachWJK]

Regardless of whether Ovechkin catches Gretzkys absolute goal number or not, he is already the greatest goal scorer of all time.

 

[Chimpradamus]

Catching goal scoring records from 40 years ago isn't realistic to start with.