What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?
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Chances havent changed much for what it was before the shortened season kicked off.
He isnt on the Rocket chase this time, but still scoring close to 0,5 per game and looks like warming up a bit.
3 seasons at 0,5 pace puts him at roughly something around 840 (with some games missed). He will be roughly 60 behind at 38y. From that on it takes 2-3 mediocre 20-30 goals seasons and its hard to see him quitting if he gets that close.
So he can do it if he can keep this up for 3 seasons and plays until 40-41. It doesnt take anything out of ordinary from his normal standards, since he hasnt had the speed for years now. Just keep shooting the puck.
Injuries or another missed half a season etc are a real concern, but theres no reason he cant keep up what he is doing now if he stays healthy. And since we are talking about generational talent, there still is the outlier chance of Ovie actually heating up again and score couple years over 0,5 pace to close it before 40s.
Come on! 179 to go!
He isnt on the Rocket chase this time, but still scoring close to 0,5 per game and looks like warming up a bit.
3 seasons at 0,5 pace puts him at roughly something around 840 (with some games missed). He will be roughly 60 behind at 38y. From that on it takes 2-3 mediocre 20-30 goals seasons and its hard to see him quitting if he gets that close.
So he can do it if he can keep this up for 3 seasons and plays until 40-41. It doesnt take anything out of ordinary from his normal standards, since he hasnt had the speed for years now. Just keep shooting the puck.
Injuries or another missed half a season etc are a real concern, but theres no reason he cant keep up what he is doing now if he stays healthy. And since we are talking about generational talent, there still is the outlier chance of Ovie actually heating up again and score couple years over 0,5 pace to close it before 40s.
Come on! 179 to go!
Refuse
Sin City Soldiers
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The only similarity between Gretzky and Ovechkin is they both scored a lot of goals. Gretzky scored a lot of goals early in his career because frankly, the league was wide open for him. If you compare Gretzky's and Ovechkin's scoring you'll see that Ovechkin at 32+ is scoring at a higher clip than Gretzky did age 25+ which is why we're having this discussion in the first place.
filinski77
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By that logic, if Crosby was to retire today: is he only the 36th greatest offensive player in league history?If Crosby plays out his career but only finishes with 1600 points: are Sakic, Yzerman, Dionne, Francis, Messier all greater offensive players than Crosby was?
I think we both know that's just silly.
PuckThumper11
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Well I would say that offensive player is a broader category than greatest goal scorer. With a broader category, there would be more factors. Right?
filinski77
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Seems like semantics. Change my questions to “greatest point scorer”, and the underlying point still stands.
PuckThumper11
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I guess I can see that. Crosby would be considered a better player than many on your list even if he retired now. And because of other factors, many consider Ovi better than Gretzky at goal-scoring at least. The numbers don't tell the whole story, but are a useful guide. I'm learning, man. Haha. Thanks for the cool discussion.
HabsCode
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Figures smh. I'm probably the only one on this forum that doesn't want him to do it.
KaseMeOutside
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Members on hf seem to be in a rush to be "right" about predicting the downfall of Ovechkin on a regular basis every time he has a cold streak and here we are yet again with him heating up. I guess some day you guys will be right but your hit % will be low
I'll admit that I am an old Gretzky mark. 175 to go. I think he'll do it now.
jetsforever
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- Dec 14, 2013
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Passing the great Phil Esposito would be a pretty slick feat for anyone else.
ALLCAPSALLTHETIME
Great Dane! Love that Eller feller.
177 to get to 895.
I am a huge Gretzky fan, too. Even if he doesn't end up having the goals record, he'll have to console himself with his 60+ odd records or whatever it is.
Gretzky will remain the greatest player of all time.
All good if he gets it. I'm not an Ovi hater.177 to get to 895.
I am a huge Gretzky fan, too. Even if he doesn't end up having the goals record, he'll have to console himself with his 60+ odd records or whatever it is.
Gretzky will remain the greatest player of all time.
Zhamnov5GoalGame
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Alexander the Gr8
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What's the point of a record, if not for it to be an invitation to eventually be broken by someone?
Demandedace
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Weird position to take
CanadianCoyote
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I'm sure Gretzky himself feels the exact opposite of this sentiment. Dude would probably be thrilled that Ovi managed to break his goals record, and why shouldn't he be? That record's stood unopposed for longer than a fair few people have even been alive. To see it be broken would be the same feeling as when he broke Howe's.
Zhamnov5GoalGame
Former Director of GDT Operations
No big conspiracy here. Ovechkin's a great player.
But I'm allowed to want Wayne's records to stand.
I guess all of the damage him and his Oilers did to my Jets in a weird way makes me want him to remain untouched. Sort of like we lost to the best of all time helps to ease that pain.
This shortened season doesn't help Ovi which is too bad for him.
Looks like he needs about 3+ seasons after this to close the gap.
It will be very impressive if he does especially for his game to not fall off a cliff like it does for most players in that age range.
I was thinking about this the other day. This would be really big for most players, for Ovi it was just a routine stop people barely noticed. The weight of expectations is a bitch.
JasonRoseEh
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- Oct 23, 2018
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It really, really doesn't. Obviously it has advantages but the goalies have infinitely improved in technique, body size and along with equipment size making it much more difficult to score. This is the single biggest change across eras. Then you add speed and how less amount of space you have to even shoot the puck comparatively, along with defensemen that don't fall down with one simple juke and it's nowhere near an apt comparison.
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AD1066
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I think it will come down to his willingness to play reduced minutes as mostly a PP specialist for a season or two at the very end.
If he can maintain a certain level of fitness and be a ~20 goal guy twice at ages 40 and 41, for example, those extra 40 goals would ease the burden of what he needs to accomplish over the next 3-4 seasons.
If he can maintain a certain level of fitness and be a ~20 goal guy twice at ages 40 and 41, for example, those extra 40 goals would ease the burden of what he needs to accomplish over the next 3-4 seasons.
JasonRoseEh
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Ovechkin in his prime was bigger, faster, stronger on the puck and could score in more ways than Bossy ever could. People have this conception that Ovi couldn't stick handle end to end and score in every way possible for 6 years. That's your choice but I'm definitely taking Ovechkin here.
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